>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • IBTA -41%, TNDM -16.7%, WPP -15.6%, TDOC -13.2%, EFXT -12.4%, TFX -11.3%, FA -11.1%, HAFN -10.8%, SG -10.3%, AAON -10.2%, PSTG -8.4% (also authorizes up to $250 mln in additional buybacks), EBAY -7.6%, VTRS -7.5%, VERX -6.2%, DQ -5.4%, PLTK -5.4%, AAOI -4.9%, BYND -4.9% (also announces further restructuring initiatives, including workforce reduction), ERII -4.6% (also names new CTO, announces new $30 mln buyback auth), AMBP -4.5%, NMFC -4.3%, PBR -4.3%, AI -4.1%, ECPG -4%, BBWI -4%, SHC -4%, BAK -3.9%, FE -3.6%, HNST -3.2%, CRM -3.2%, FWRD -3.2%, IONQ -3.1% (also names new CEO; also to acquire ID Quantique and enters into quantum strategic partnership with SK Telecom; also announces $500 mln ATM stock offering; also files mixed shelf securities offering), RVMD -3.1%, TKO -3%, FTAI -2.8%, HLN -2.8%, DCO -2.8%, BWLP -2.7%, XRAY -2.7%, MDXG -2.6%, KRP -2.6%, MAC -2.6%, MGNI -2.4%, KTOS -2.4% (also announces 50/50 partnership with RAFAEL Advanced Defense for solid rocket motors), AMWD -2.4%, GLNG -2.4%, GEO -2.2%, OVV -2.1%, BBSI -2%, A -1.8%, CRGY -1.8%, PENN -1.8%, SRPT -1.7%, KNTK -1.7%, MTTR -1.7%, ACAD -1.7%, NVCR -1.6%, SJW -1.5%, PARA -1.4%, FSK -1.3%, INVA -1.2%, CDNA -1.1%, EXE -1%, AIN -1% (also new $250 mln share repurchase program), VRNA -1%,
Other news:
  • MRNA -4.7% (Trump administration contemplates pulling bird flu vaccine funding, according to Bloomberg)
  • MFH -3.3% (Highlights Growing Institutional Ownership, Reinforcing Growth Strategy)
  • KDP -3.1% (announces the pricing of its previously-announced registered public offering of 73,000,000 shares through a secondary offering by a subsidiary of JAB Holding Company s.a.r.l., at a price to the public of $32.80/share)
  • RACE -2.9% (participated as a purchaser in Exor's accelerated bookbuild offering)
  • SMCI -1.5% (now complies with Nasdaq; matter with SEC is now closed)
Analyst comments:
  • STZ -1.5% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • ROOT +18.8%, CORZ +18.3% (also expands relationship with CoreWeave; new deal brings an additional $1.2 bln in contracted revs), NTNX +16.4%, MQ +13.4% (also CEO steps down; also to acquire TransactPay; also authorizes up to $300 mln for repurchases), OPRA +13.3%, MARA +12.7%, SNOW +12.4% (also securely integrates Microsoft Azure OpenAI service), AMBA +10.9%, LTBR +9.8%, SEMR +9.3% (also Co-Founder/CEO to focus exclusively on product innovation and AI as new CTO), CPRX +8.6% (also pursuing strategic investments), GOCO +8.5%, ADTN +8.4%, FTI +8.4%, LZ +8.2%, IRWD +8.2%, RSI +8.1%, GRBK +7.6% (also increases share repurchase authorization to $100 mln), MNKD +7.1% (also files mixed shelf securities offering), WRBY +6.9%, VST +6.9%, VSEC +6.6% (also names new COO and other execs), LFST +6.5%, SPCE +6.3%, VERV +6.2%, VYX +6.1%, PZZA +6%, ONC +5.8%, ARDT +5.6%, ZLAB +5.6%, CERT +5.4%, TWI +5.4%, TASK +5.1%, EVTC +5.1%, WHD +4.6%, HEI +4.5%, LTH +4.5%, SRRK +4.3%, URBN +4.1%, PSTL +4.1%, JOBY +4% (also reports record certification progress and delivery of second aircraft to US Air Force), UHS +4%, HAYW +4%, INVH +3.9%, MIRM +3.7%, SDGR +3.7%, KROS +3.7%, SBGI +3.7%, TALO +3.6%, ORA +3.4%, GTN +3.4%, SNPS +3.1%, GDRX +3.1%, VTOL +2.9%, KW +2.8%, VRN +2.7%, WES +2.6%, NVDA +2.5%, JOE +2.5% (also increases share repurchase program to $100 mln), ACIW +2.4%, HHH +2.2%, NXST +2.2%, STGW +2.1%, VAC +1.9%, ARGX +1.8%, NCLH +1.6%, INSW +1.4%, WBD +1.4%, SATS +1.3%, EVRG +1.3%, DORM +1.2%, NHC +1.1%, AMSF +1% (also increases dividend)
Other news:
  • RILY +14.7% (announces $160 Million Debt Financing Provided by Oaktree)
  • BLTE +5.9% (Announces Interim Analysis Results from the Pivotal Global Phase 3 DRAGON trial of Tinlarebant in Adolescent Stargardt Disease Subjects)
  • ZVIA +4.4% (files $50 mln mixed shelf securities offering)
  • BLND +3.8% (to expand income and employment verification platform)
  • PRG +3.3% (increases dividend)
  • IOSP +1% (announces partnership with UNESCO)
  • ALL +0.8% (authorizes new $1.5 bln share repurchase program; also increases dividend)
Analyst comments:
  • FCX +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
  • STLD +1.5% (upgraded to Peer Perform from Underperform at Wolfe Research)
  • CHKP +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert Baird)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of February 2025

>>> Up
* Barratt Redrow Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 536 pence
* Freeport Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $48
* Nvidia Raised to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $131
* Rheinmetall PT Raised to 1,300 euros at Morgan Stanley
* Siegfried Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 975 Swiss francs
* Tesla Raised to Buy at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $345.76

>>> Down
* Aspocomp Group Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4 euros
* Danone Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 73 euros
* Goldman Sachs Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT $660
* Jyske Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 610 kroner
* Nvidia Cut to Hold at Summit Insights
* Orion Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 55 euros
* Sydbank Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 480 kroner
* Wolters Kluwer Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Initiation


>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 27th of February 2025

Asian equities declined Thursday as investors parsed the latest tariff announcements from US President Donald Trump and earnings from Nvidia Corp. failed to impress market participants. Equity gauges in China, Hong Kong and South Korea fell while 10-year Treasury yields inched higher. European equity index futures declined as much as 0.9% after Trump said that his administration would impose tariffs of 25% on the European Union. The president also said that previously announced levies on Mexico and Canada would come into force on April 2.  Trump’s comments were at times contradictory and sowing confusion as the tariffs on US neighbors were to take effect from next month. Nvidia shares fell in after-hours trading as the chipmaker delivered good-but-not-great quarterly numbers, leaving investors — who have become accustomed to blowout results — disappointed. The barrage of tariff news ricocheted through currency markets, lifting the dollar and stemming a selloff in the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso Wednesday. Get the Markets Daily newsletter to learn what’s moving stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities. New research suggests Trump’s latest tariffs on imports from China may hit the American economy more than official US trade data indicate. Treasuries slipped. They had rallied on Wednesday, sending the US 10-year yield to its lowest level since the middle of December. A gauge of the dollar rose for a second day. Australian yields fell. Bitcoin fell to around $84,000, more than a fifth lower than its peak last month, as outflows from exchanged-traded funds amplified selling. Oil steadied near the lowest close this year, while gold fell. In Asia, the yen traded around 149 per dollar after ending Wednesday’s session little changed. Japan’s top currency official on Wednesday indicated he had no issue with growing market expectations over Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes, which this week helped send the yen to a four-month high.  Nvidia also warned that gross profit margins would be tighter than anticipated as it rushes to roll out a new chip design called Blackwell. And there’s the risk of US tariffs weighing on results.  The mixed outlook comes at a shaky time for the AI industry. Nvidia shares have dipped this year on concerns that data center operators will slow spending. Chinese startup DeepSeek also has sparked fears that chatbots can be developed on the cheap, potentially reducing the need for Nvidia’s powerful chips for AI. “Before the launch of DeepSeek, the expectation was that China’s AI was sort of well behind US AI,” said Edward Chan, senior investment analyst at Mirae Asset Global Investments. “The key implication is that China software companies, internet companies, all these tech companies now have access to a very competitive model where they could start build out their tech stack and build out all kinds of applications. So I think that’s really a big change for the whole China tech industry.”  US After Hours ROOT +16.5%, NTNX +15.3%, AMBA +10.5%, SNOW +9.8%, LZ +9%, RSI +8.7% higher on earnings; IBTA -37.5%, TNDM -16.9%, TDOC -15.4%, AAOI -10%, SG -9.7%, EBAY -8.9% lower on earnings.

Nikkei -0.13% Hang Seng -1.06% CSI -0.23% Shanghai -0.41% Shenzen -0.92%

Eur$ 1.0462 CNH 7.2745 CNY 7.2691 JPY 149.15 GBP 1.2655 CHF 0.8967 RUB 85.75 TRY 36.46 WTI$ 68.73 +0.16% Gold 2.895 -0.69% BTC 85,100 +0.80% ETH 2312 -1;10%

S&P +0.4% Nasdaq -0.09% EuroStoxx -0.61% FTSE -0.27% Dax -0.80% SMI


Macro :
- YouTube Star MrBeast Is Raising Money at a $5 Billion Valuation
- Bitcoin on Edge as Momentum Builds for Further Sales
- Activist Starboard Said to Trail Peers With Less Than 5% Returns
- CSRC to Tighten Controls on US Listings for Small China Cos: FT

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Marriott Vacations 2025 Adjusted EPS Forecast Misses Estimates
- AF FP : Air France-KLM CEO Heads to Portugal as TAP Battle Heats Up
- AMBA US : Ambarella 1Q Revenue Forecast Beats Estimates
- AMG NA : AMG Sees 2025 Ebitda at Least $150M
- BNB SW / Bachem FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- BCP PL :
- BCP PL : BCP Does Not Need to Acquire Novo Banco, CEO Maya Says
- BYND US : Beyond Meat 2025 Net Rev. Forecast Misses Est., to Cut Jobs
- BIO GY : Biotest Prelim 2024 Rev. €726.2m, Exceeds Growth Forecast
- BOSN SW : Bossard FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- BP/ LN : BP’s Reset Finds Lukewarm Response as Shares Erase Elliott Gains
- BYS SW : Bystronic FY Net Sales Miss Estimates
- CLN SW : Clariant Says TotalEnergies Alleges Damages on Ethylene Sale
- CBK GY : ECB poised to approve UniCredit's investment in Commerzbank, source says https://t.co/TuIEtac3x7
- EDP PL : EDP SA FY Ebitda Misses Estimates; Plans Stock Buyback (1)
- EDP PL : EDP to Cut Annual Average Investment in 2025-26 by 22% to €4.4b
- EDP PL : EDP to Opt to Receive EDPR Shares Under Scrip Dividend Program
- EDPR PL : EDP Renovaveis FY Ebitda Misses Estimates (1)
- EDPR PL : EDPR to Moderate Investment Pace to 3.5GW of Capacity in 2025-26
- FGR FP : Eiffage FY Adjusted Operating Income Beats Estimates
- EKTAB SS : Elekta Says CEO Salford to Leave; Names Bolander as Interim Head
- ENI IM : Eni Plans to Boost Gas, LNG Output to Reach Carbon Neutrality
- EXO NA : Ferrari Holder Exor Offers 4% Stake in Luxury Carmaker, Ferrari Falls as Major Shareholder Exor to Sell 7M Shares
- EXO NA : Agnellis to Sell €3 Billion Ferrari Stake, to Keep Control (1)
- RACE IM : Ferrari to Repurchase Up to 10% of Exor Offering Up to EUR300M
- FER SM : French PE Firm Ardian Raises Stake in London’s Heathrow Airport
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty FY Current Operating Income Meets Estimates
- HHH US : Howard Hughes 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- IDR SM : Indra FY Net Income Beats Estimates
- IPS FP : Ipsos FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- JBH LN : Keurig Dr Pepper Holder JAB Holdings Offers 73m Shares
- KDP US : Keurig Dr Pepper Holder JAB Holdings Offers 73m Shares
- SKB GY : Koenig & Bauer 2025 Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
- LDO IM : Saudi PIF in Talks to Invest in Leonardo’s Aerostructures Unit
- FII FP : LISI FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- LLOY LN : Lloyds Bank overstated interest-bearing deposits to BoE by £44bn
- MRNA US : Trump Team Weighs Pulling Funds for Moderna Bird Flu Vaccine
- EGP PL : Mota-Engil FY Net Income EU123M Vs. EU113M Y/y
- 7201 JP : Nissan Prepares to Replace CEO After Honda Deal Falls Apart
- NOS PL : NOS FY Net Income Beats Estimates
- NOS PL : Portugal’s NOS to Propose Ordinary Dividend of €0.35/Share
- NVDA US : Nvidia Sees 1Q Revenue $43b, +/-2%; Est. $42.26b: Snapshot
- PIRC IM : Pirelli 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates, Pirelli Evaluates ‘Material Investment’ in US to Grow Capacity
- RR/ LN : Rolls Royce Union Agrees to Tentative Deal, Averts Strike: UAW
- CRM US : Salesforce Falls After Full-Year Outlook Disappoints (1)
- SDRL US : Seadrill 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- SK FP : SEB FY Net Income Misses Estimates
- SESG FP : Appaloosa Asks SES to Change Share Capital And Board Structure
- SPCE US : Virgin Galactic Plans Flight on New Spacecraft in Mid-2026
- SUN SW : Sulzer FY Net Income CHF265.4M Vs. CHF230.5M Y/y
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia May Postpone Its AGM to as Late as End of June
- TTE FP : Clariant Says TotalEnergies Alleges Damages on Ethylene Sale
- ULVR LN : Ben & Jerry’s Founders Discuss Buying Back Brand From Unilever
- VZ US : FAA Weighs Canceling Verizon Deal Amid Starlink Terminal Tests
- VU FP : VusionGroup 2025 Sales Forecast Beats Estimates
- MF FP : Wendel FY Net Income Beats Estimates

FT : These kids want to sell you a second-hand Rolex

These kids want to sell you a second-hand Rolex
Meet the new-gen dealers on the pre-owned watch scene

It is no secret that since the pandemic-bubble market burst, things have not been quite so easy in the watch industry. I called the peak of the steel-sports-watch market in the summer of 2022, as rampant speculation led to prices that were simply unsustainable. Fuelled by social media then turbocharged by restricted supply, as Swiss factories rearranged production under Covid, watches were no longer perceived as objects of aesthetic and mechanical interest – they became a currency or commodity to be traded like Crypto. Now the helium high is gone and we are left with the comedown. The December bulletin on exports from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, headlined “Sharp Contraction”, says it all.

Not the best time to be opening a 4,500sq ft pre-owned watch shop on Old Bond Street, you would have thought. But then you and I probably do not think in the same way as the Hutson brothers, better known to their 250,000-plus Instagram followers as the Kettle Kids. This fraternal duo, Harvey, 29, and Jacob, 27, is one of a number of watch dealers opening new premises in London this year, demonstrating a confidence in the pre-owned market. It’s a confidence boosted also by the decision of Rolex, Jaeger-LeCoultre and Vacheron Constantin to launch certified pre-owned programmes. 

The Kettle Kids are a phenomenon. The inventory, so temptingly showcased on Instagram in videos of wrist rolls that show the play of light over the fluted bezel of a Rolex Day-Date or catch the glint of a Royal Oak’s gemset bezel, may be blue chip but their shtick is certainly not. For as long as I can remember, watch traders have sought to gentrify a commercial activity sometimes viewed as a junior branch of second-hand car dealing. The Kettle Kids, however, have actively cultivated a sarf-London-geezer image that is all “wheelin ’n’ dealin”. As Harvey explains: “Kettle and hob is a Cockney slang for Fob.” “In south London the youngsters call watches ‘kettles,’” adds Jacob helpfully.

The Kettle Kids are the stars of their own Guy Ritchie rags-to-riches fairytale. It was 2016. Harvey was working in a carwash, and Jacob was an apprentice tiler on a building site, when, with the help of a loan of a grand from their beloved nan (there is always a benign matriarch in this sort of story), they doubled their money on three Cartier Must 21s and decided that there was more money in pre-owned watches. 

“Back then our customers were friends,” says Harvey, “then after we ran out of friends, we went on Instagram.” In 2017 they registered Kettle Kids as a limited company. “We had a very good Covid… and then it got insane.” From a business built on social media (they also have a website where you can sign up to their Members’ Club for their catalogue and updates) they’ve moved into doing pop-ups in department stores, they are developing a line of jewellery, they are cultivating ambassadors for the new store and they have worked on artist collaborations with Blek le Rat and 24-year-old artist and designer Olaolu Slawn. 

Forget MBAs, business plans, forecasts and focus groups. As for a business model? “To be honest, we just roll with it,” says Harvey, and to judge from their Richard Mille watches [a Bubba Watson RM 055 for Harvey and a Rafael Nadal RM 35-02 for his brother] it seems to have worked thus far. They tap into a younger section of the watch-collecting diaspora that has perhaps found the idea of crossing the threshold of big brand maisons, auction houses and established vintage dealers somewhat inimical. “When you think of jewellery and watches it is an older thing,” says Jacob, “There haven’t actually been, like, two younger guys who have started a business and taken it to the next level and inspired the younger generation.” They’re seeing most demand for vintage Cartier and all models of Patek Philippe. 

They opened their first store on Maddox Street in 2023. Now, just two years later they are moving into a four-storey building on Old Bond Street, formerly the A Lange & Söhne shop, just between Valentino and Vacheron Constantin, across the road from Richard Mille. It is a source of considerable pride: “Old Bond Street for us is the pinnacle. If you’re going to sell a watch to the best collectors or enthusiasts in the world, they’re most likely going to be on Old Bond Street,” says Harvey. “We just took a 20-year lease. To be accepted on Old Bond Street we’ve had to go for a lot of interviews and jump through a lot of hoops, just checking us out, background checks, our goals, ambitions.” They plan to open a service and restoration centre on the top floor. The building will also house their offices, a well-stocked cellar and an entertainment space.

Across town, Subdial Collector’s Lounge is opening over two floors of a building on Farringdon Road, the first physical manifestation of the online dealing and trading platform founded in 2018. The look is exposed brickwork, prominent ducting and steel joists. “Online is fine, but there is no substitute for real people buying, selling or just talking about watches, ideally while having a few drinks. It just seemed like a natural evolution of the business,” says its head of commercial, Tim Green.

Where the Kettle Kids have their charm, engaging manner, and of course their youth, Subdial’s difference is data. Lots and lots of data. “I think our reliance on up-to-date data is what makes us different,” says Green. “We scrape data from multiple locations, multiple times a day, and it gives us real visibility on what watches are being listed, what watches are being sold, how long they’ve taken to sell, the condition rating, etc. So we’re able to understand exactly how we should be pricing our watches to sell, but also what we should be buying.

“Breguet is having a real moment. Partly I think this is due to optimism spurred on by the new CEO, Gregory Kissling, formerly of Omega. But also because vintage and pre-owned Breguet presents such an undeniable value proposition right now; haute horlogerie, precious metals, all from a historic brand, at an attractive price. It’s a brand to watch in 2025.” 

In a former life he was a management consultant at Ernst & Young, as were Subdial co-founders Christy Davis and Ross Crane, and this analytical background has given their business a unique flavour. “We have a partnership with Bloomberg with whom we created the Subdial x Bloomberg Index and it tracks the top 50 most traded watches in the world, which are typically Rolex and Pateks. We have tracked those values over the course of the past four years, which gives a baseline point to tell you whether the market is in good health or bad health. It helps us provide information to asset managers and to wealth managers so they can better understand the health of the industry from the perspective of investing in alternative assets. If you look at the past four years you’ll see a pretty depressing curve. But we’re starting to see that curve lift again. I think people are increasingly confident that prices have hit a natural sort of level.”

Danny Pizzigoni, founder of The Watch Club on Royal Arcade off Old Bond Street, agrees. Counterintuitively, a bubble market is bad for business. “It’s now a lot better. When the prices were so spiky, it was difficult to get any watches to change hands. People were terrified of selling their watches for too little. No one wanted to buy a watch because they were worried that the prices were too high. Now things have stabilised.”

Pizzigoni opened Royal Arcade Watches in 1996. About 10 years later he rebranded as The Watch Club. He chose the name to signal a more relaxed and comfortable space for a like-minded community to meet and buy watches, but feels that today’s serious collectors want more. “A watch shop is nice but the goalposts have moved,” he says of his acquisition of a first-floor salon, formerly an art gallery designed by David Chipperfield and redesigned by Dimorestudio, on Albemarle Street, which will open in early summer. There, he plans to present pieces from his personal collection or high-value rarities that cannot be truly appreciated online or in a busy shop. “It would not feel right presenting a Rolex Oyster Sotto Paul Newman or a first series 2499 Patek next to a client who has just popped in for a strap change.”

Collectors, says Pizzigoni, “are now seeking ‘sleeper’ models from historical brands like Vacheron Constantin and Audemars Piguet that have great investment potential. Daniel Roth, early Franck Mullers and even newer brands like Parmigiani Fleurier also have that independent flavour that collectors are desperate for.”

He welcomes the Kettle Kids: “When I saw their shop in Maddox Street, it wasn’t a standard shopfit. It was a serious job that made me stop and look. Of course I want to see them do well… because that means the pre-owned and vintage watch market is healthy and strong.” 

WSJ : The ‘Spy Sheikh’ Taking the AI World by Storm

The ‘Spy Sheikh’ Taking the AI World by Storm
Abu Dhabi’s Tahnoon bin Zayed al Nahyan has more than $1.5 trillion to spend and he’s in a hurry; grappling with Mark Zuckerberg

The Abu Dhabi royal sometimes called “the spy sheikh” is accustomed to using his vast wealth to master his many obsessions, which have ranged over the years from martial arts to chess to videogames.

Now Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the United Arab Emirates’ national security adviser and brother of the president, is deploying a similar playbook at a much grander scale. He wants to muscle his tiny emirate to the front of the race to develop and control AI systems that could transform the global economy.

The world is taking notice. The CEOs of Apple, Microsoft and BlackRock have all paid homage at his elaborate Persian Gulf royal compound in recent months. On a fall trip to the U.S., he grappled with fellow Brazilian jujitsu devotee Mark Zuckerberg, and donned a sweatshirt and jeans for a visit with Elon Musk at Tesla’s Texas factory.

All of this is possible in part because the 56-year-old Tahnoon controls more money than almost anyone on the planet, as the chairman of two Abu Dhabi wealth funds with an estimated $1.4 trillion in assets and the steward of an enormous personal fortune.

A new artificial intelligence fund he leads, MGX, is set to be infused with more than $50 billion from his wealth and other Abu Dhabi sources, according to people familiar with the fund. Billions of dollars more are set to be spent on AI by Group 42, a company he controls.

Tahnoon’s entities are part of the more than $70 billion the U.A.E. pledged to invest in France and Italy earlier this month. Last month, MGX was one of the few names mentioned backing Stargate, a $100 billion data center project announced at the White House to be led by SoftBank and OpenAI. It also has written big checks for OpenAI, Musk’s XAI and Amazon-backed Anthropic.

Even in an AI world awash in funds, Tahnoon stands out. While many are plunging tens of billions of dollars into concentrated areas—SoftBank is making a huge bet on OpenAI and the tech giants are heaving money at data centers—Tahnoon is planning to spread more money broadly around the fledgling sector than almost anyone else.

It is a risky time to be splashing so much cash on AI.

The low-cost AI model from China’s DeepSeek has abruptly shaken assumptions on the need for heavy investment. Valuations across tech have skyrocketed, and even optimistic venture capitalists often acknowledge the market is in a searing frenzy. Leading AI companies expect to lose billions of dollars for years to come, while pledges of future profitability rest on hazy assumptions of a tidal wave of demand.

Many see parallels to the late-stage dot-com bubble, when the cash-splashers of the era plunged tens of billions of dollars into building out fiber-optic cable networks based on projections that internet growth would be even more rapid than it was. A glut of fiber and enormous losses followed.

Tahnoon isn’t deterred.

His strategy is to use his cash and influence not only to enable the U.A.E. and Abu Dhabi to profit from the rise of AI, but to make the U.A.E. a global hub for the technology. Seeing enormous global demand for years to come, his vision is that chip plants, data centers and local AI companies will build a post-oil economic future for the tiny-but-powerful emirate a 90 minute drive from Dubai—and for the country overall.

From his ornate palace in Abu Dhabi, Tahnoon personally tracks the progress of global large language models on a dashboard his researchers built for him on his phone and computer. He urges subordinates at the giant network of companies he owns to rapidly incorporate AI.

Tahnoon has “the capital to invest in what is a very capital-intensive endeavor,” said Brad Smith, the president of Microsoft, who has worked extensively with the sheikh since 2023.

During one meeting with Tahnoon, he and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella mentioned a book by George Washington University professor Jeffrey Ding that suggests AI could be the base of coming global economic growth.

The sheikh scribbled it down on his notepad, and soon after, Ding was eating lunch in his Washington, D.C., office when a representative from the U.A.E. embassy knocked on his door and said, “I cannot find your book in any bookstore. Can I get two copies?” Smith recalled.

A $1 trillion consolation prize

Tahnoon grew up in the shadow of his brother Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the longtime crown prince who was named president of the U.A.E. in 2022.

While his brother rubbed shoulders with foreign leaders and crafted plans to remake Abu Dhabi’s economy, Tahnoon honed extracurricular activities.

He became so hooked on competing with his brothers in “Age of Empires,” a videogame where players develop hunter gatherers into powerful civilizations, that he hired an employee from the company that makes the game to coach him on tactics, former employees said.

He turned a palace within his royal compound into a gym. He funds one of the world’s top cycling teams—UAE Team Emirates—and he rides on an island near the presidential palace he ringed with cycling paths. He liked super-light Colnago bikes so much that he instructed one of his companies to buy the Italian firm that makes them.

Tahnoon has poured money into building up Brazilian jiu jitsu and other forms of grappling around the globe. A black belt, he started a well-funded championship tournament that has “become the Olympics of our sport,” said Bobby Razak, a filmmaker who is making a documentary on Tahnoon and the event.

“He’s definitely one of the Founding Fathers of mixed martial arts,” he said, a sport that “would not be where it was today” without Tahnoon.

The interest in AI has roots in the early 2000s, when he was so intrigued by computer-aided chess that he hired a sizable team of engineers to make him a program named Hydra that could compete with the world’s best players. Erdogan Günes, a computer chess specialist for opening moves, said he often talked by phone for two or more hours a day with the sheikh as they monitored Hydra’s games.

In late 2017, Tahnoon’s interest increased after he learned that Google’s AI program AlphaZero had beaten the world’s best computer chess program after needing just four hours to learn the rules. It was far more powerful than Hydra ever was—opening his eyes to the power of AI, he told associates.

The following year, he tapped Peng Xiao, the former chief technology officer at software-turned-Bitcoin firm MicroStrategy, to start G42, a company devoted to applications of AI.

At the time, Abu Dhabi’s wealth and economic strategy were largely under the control of Tahnoon’s brother, Mohamed. As de facto leader of the country, he pushed to siphon off part of the emirate’s oil wealth and put it into investments and economic development, building the wealth fund bounty Tahnoon would later inherit.

Mohamed had long viewed the tech sector as a big piece of that puzzle, and in 2017 made a push into AI, launching a national strategy for the technology to make the U.A.E. “the world leader in AI” by 2031. (It was later changed to “a” world leader).

After Mohamed became the UAE’s president, there was speculation that Tahnoon would be named crown prince. Instead, Mohamed gave the role to his own son and awarded Tahnoon an apparent consolation prize: oversight of two sovereign funds, enthroning him as the main custodian of Abu Dhabi’s wealth.

Taken with his own business empire—a sprawling collection of real estate, maritime, banking and food assets, many with government ties—that gave Tahnoon control over more than $1.5 trillion as of last year, according to data firm Global SWF.

Western business leaders were enamored with the sheikh.

Microsoft’s Smith first met Tahnoon in March 2023 on a business trip to Abu Dhabi, where they struck up a conversation about AI and energy. Tahnoon has also developed a rapport with OpenAI’s Sam Altman. Early last year, the two men discussed a since-abandoned plan to finance a global network of chip factories to be built by TSMC.

lackRock CEO Larry Fink says he frequently visits the U.A.E. and talks to Tahnoon about technology, health, longevity—another obsession of the sheikh’s—and AI.

Abu Dhabi “has a position of influence way beyond the size of the population,” said Fink, whose firm is partnering with a Tahnoon-led entity to invest in AI infrastructure. “He believes they have a unique advantage in AI.”

“You have to choose”

After the AI frenzy took off in 2023, Tahnoon’s ambitions ran into thorny geopolitics.

As national security adviser, he has long attracted criticism for overseeing the UAE’s vast spying operation. Due to an eye condition, he is almost always photographed indoors in sunglasses, adding to the aura of intrigue around him.

Security analysts have warned G42 subsidiaries have been involved in surveillance of Emirati residents and dissidents; U.S. officials alleged a popular messaging app it owned collected user information like location and contacts, and had the ability to listen to calls.

The ties of both Tahnoon and the U.A.E. to China have frustrated U.S. national security hawks. Tahnoon’s CEO of G42, Xiao, was previously a Chinese citizen, and the company relied on Chinese-made equipment from Huawei routers and owned stakes in Chinese startups.

So when Tahnoon wanted G42 to buy cutting-edge U.S. AI tech, members of the Biden administration told him in a 2023 Washington, D.C., visit they wanted the investment, but he couldn’t straddle both sides of the China-U.S. divide if he wanted the U.S. to approve.

“You have to choose,” Gina Raimondo, the former Secretary of Commerce said she told the sheikh in a blunt message. “This is a one-strike-and-you’re-out kind of policy.”

The U.A.E. has long seen itself as something of a Switzerland—a trusted point of trade for East and West—and choosing sides on AI would risk damaging relations with China. But the allure of the U.S. lead on AI was too much to ignore.

Tahnoon picked the U.S.

Huawei routers were ripped out of G42’s offices and Western equipment put in its place, while Tahnoon and his aides continued negotiating with the administration on details.

To enable a deal, the administration paired Tahnoon’s company with Microsoft. G42 agreed to use Microsoft’s cloud for AI work and also to comply with U.S. export restrictions as a part of the deal, and Microsoft invested $1.5 billion in G42, joining its board of directors.

Still, China hawks in Congress remained concerned that the UAE’s overall ties to China remain strong, fearing the country could allow the powerful U.S. tech tools to make their way to China. Those lawmakers could be an obstacle if Tahnoon comes back for similar deals.

The country has ambitions to host massive data centers that run Western large language models. Semiconductor manufacturing could follow, as government officials have had discussions with TSMC and Samsung about building chip fabrication plants in Abu Dhabi, people familiar with the discussions said. The emirate is planning a surge of gas-power plant construction to meet potential data-center demand, and it is considering expanding its new nuclear plant.

“We definitely would like the U.S. government to give us more green lights,” Xiao said, adding U.S. companies are ready to do deals with G42.

Officials are trying to build up local AI companies involved in healthcare and energy into major forces, and to lure foreign companies’ AI jobs to the region. While Silicon Valley has a stranglehold on top talent, the idea is that Abu Dhabi could emerge as a hub for AI companies serving the Middle East, South Asia and Africa.

Many practical obstacles beckon. There’s no obvious link between building data centers—scant generators of employment, often located in remote locations—and sparking a rush of AI software jobs nearby. A long list of cities with far more engineering talent are also eager to become AI hubs themselves, such as London and Paris.

Abu Dhabi also faces geopolitical challenges similar to the Microsoft deal. The U.A.E. would need U.S. clearance to buy far more chips—as well as for chip building equipment if it wants to host semiconductor fabrication plants.

The Trump administration hasn’t yet weighed in on the topic, but MGX is spreading money across top companies in the U.S. AI sector. Ahmed Yahia, MGX’s CEO, said the company plans to spend 70% to 80% of its money in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Tahnoon is sowing seeds with those in the president’s orbit. MGX took part in a $6 billion fundraise by xAI late last year. Tahnoon’s asset manager Lunate recently participated in a $1.5 billion additional investment in Affinity, the investment fund run by President Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, whom Tahnoon met in the first Trump administration.

Speaking to a podcast in December, Kushner recalled a 2018 meeting when he was visiting the region. Tahnoon told him, “Jared, I’m not meeting with you unless you spend two hours after with me to talk about AI.”

FT : Lloyds Bank overstated interest-bearing deposits to BoE by £44bn

Lloyds Bank overstated interest-bearing deposits to BoE by £44bn
Error fed into data set used by watchdog in review of UK’s cash savings market

Lloyds Banking Group wrongly classified £44.1bn of customer deposits in figures submitted to the Bank of England, an error that fed through to official data used to scrutinise whether banks were short-changing consumers on interest payments.

The group said the deposits were earning interest when they were not, leading to inaccuracies in the BoE’s sector-wide data used by the Financial Conduct Authority in its review of the cash savings market.

The BoE said that as of October last year, £232bn was held in individuals’ accounts earning no interest, compared with £1.5tn in accounts that did attract interest payments. 

Lloyds’ error was rectified late last year, leading the amount of deposits in non-interest bearing accounts to jump to £282bn when the BoE published its figures for November.

The data is collated monthly based on submissions from individual banks, with the BoE producing a national total showing in which type of account money is held across the UK.

Lloyds said an internal review last year had turned up several current account products that it had incorrectly classified when it submitted its statistics. The bank said it had informed the BoE and updated its latest submission to correct the error.

“There is no impact to customers, no impact to capital, and no impact on external financial reporting”, Lloyds said.

The BoE declined to comment.

The mistake by Lloyds risks invalidating the historic accuracy of the data used by the FCA in its review of the cash savings market.

Banks have faced intense scrutiny over how quickly they have passed on interest rate increases and cuts to savers and borrowers since a cycle of rapid rate changes kicked off in early 2022. Lenders recorded a period of bumper profits as they increased the rates they charged on loans more quickly than they passed on the benefit of higher rates to savers, boosting margins.

Harriett Baldwin, then-chair of the Treasury select committee, accused the banks at the time of “[taking] advantage of their most loyal savings customers to boost profit margins”.

The windfall to lenders prompted a threat from former chancellor Jeremy Hunt to take regulatory action against lenders that failed to boost rates on savings, and culminated in the FCA’s July 2023 review.

In September 2024, the FCA again used the BoE figures when it provided an update to the review, noting it had worked with nine banks and building societies — including Lloyds — to ensure they provided fair value to customers.

A person familiar with the matter said Lloyds’ reporting error meant figures on average easy access rates cited by the FCA in its report would have been lower than they should have been.

However, the person said the error was unlikely to have materially affected the watchdog’s review of the cash savings market, its conclusions or policy actions.

While Lloyd’s reporting mistake had no material consequences, such clerical errors can be costly for banks.

Barclays had to pay a $361mn penalty to the US Securities and Exchange Commission and £450mn to investors in 2022 and after it accidentally offered billions of dollars more securities to investors than it was authorised to.

In 2018, Metro Bank’s inaccurate reporting of the risk weighting applied to some of its commercial loans sparked a crisis at the challenger bank and ultimately resulted in £15mn of fines from the FCA and BoE.

FT : FCA looks for policies to scrap as it slows ‘pace of regulatory change’

FCA looks for policies to scrap as it slows ‘pace of regulatory change’
UK financial watchdog’s moves come as Keir Starmer urges regulators to consider impact of their measures on growth

The Financial Conduct Authority is seeking to ditch policy proposals and is committing to launch fewer “large-scale” initiatives over the next five years, as it steps up efforts to support Britain’s flagging economy.

The moves follow calls by Sir Keir Starmer’s government for regulators to cut the burden of bureaucracy, ahead of a speech next month in which the prime minister is expected to outline how rulemakers have been forced to pay more attention to their policies’ impact on growth.

The FCA’s board-level review has already identified one policy proposal to shelve — a plan to impose notice periods before investors can redeem money from property funds — and it is looking for others that could be reworked or ditched, according to senior officials.

“We have heard concerns about the pace of regulatory change in the context of supporting growth,” the FCA said in a statement. 

“There will be fewer large-scale changes over the next five years,” it said. “We are also streamlining the policy pipeline, noting some measures to support growth require regulatory change and others are instigated by government and parliament.”

As the government cracks down on watchdogs, the FCA has faced particular scrutiny over concerns that its approach to financial regulation is too heavy-handed.

The body, which supervises 58,000 financial services firms while seeking to protect consumers and foster competition, has been extremely active in producing new proposals as it uses its expanded post-Brexit powers to introduce rules that replace ones inherited from the EU. 

The watchdog is due to announce 11 policy initiatives in the first quarter alone, ranging from changes in the consumer compensation framework to new rules on commercial insurance. 

Last year it was forced to water down one of its most controversial proposals — to “name and shame” more of the companies it investigates — after uproar from ministers and City executives. However, officials said the FCA was likely to stick with its revised plan.

The FCA is required to introduce some new rules that have been instigated by the government, such as plans to create a regulatory framework for companies handling crypto asset trading and services this year.

But some could be dropped, such as a planned requirement for property funds to have a notice period of between 90 and 180 days before investors can redeem their money. It was announced after several funds in the sector suspended withdrawals during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.

Officials said the property fund proposal could be reworked as part of plans to implement international standards from the Financial Stability Board and Iosco (the International Organization of Securities Commissions) on liquidity measures for open-ended funds.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has paved the way for a drastic regulatory overhaul by telling cabinet ministers to conduct a full audit of Britain’s estimated 130 regulators to examine if they are working to boost growth and whether any should be scrapped.

FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi committed to “deep reforms” last month to make growth “a cornerstone of our strategy, through to 2030” in his letter responding to a call for pro-growth proposals from Starmer, Reeves and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “We welcome the FCA’s work to streamline regulations,” adding that officials were “working with the regulators to deliver an ambitious action plan in the coming weeks to drive growth”.

Rathi, who joined the FCA in 2020 after running the London Stock Exchange, is the subject of intense speculation about whether he will continue in his job after his five-year term expires in September.

He applied last year for the vacant role of cabinet secretary, the most senior civil servant’s position, but did not make the shortlist. However, a senior FCA insider said he is well regarded by officials — including at the Treasury — and is likely to be asked to stay at the watchdog.

FT : Restructuring activity rises as companies feel the squeeze

Restructuring activity rises as companies feel the squeeze
Consultants predict a wave of work this year from UK businesses facing financial pressure

When the owner of Petersham Nurseries was forced to close two London restaurants and a deli in February, the chain blamed several factors, from rising costs to Brexit, but also Rachel Reeves’ November budget.

Petersham (UK) Limited, which is owned by the Boglione family behind the Petersham Nurseries garden centre in Richmond, will not be alone in feeling the pinch from the UK chancellor’s move to increase the minimum wage and employers’ national insurance contributions from April.

In Europe and elsewhere there are fears of an uptick in corporate distress. And with a trade war looming and economic conditions faltering, many restructuring specialists expect a wave of work as companies struggle with further financial pressures.

“It’s been amazing — given the geopolitical stuff, interest rate rises — that we haven’t actually seen more shakeout in the restructuring market so far,” says Richard Fleming, a managing director of Alvarez & Marsal in London, who leads the consultancy’s restructuring practice in Europe.

“We’ve all been waiting for when all of these things add up to a different degree of activity. Now we’re really starting to see this move into the mainstream market, ” he adds.

Last year, corporate insolvency numbers declined by about 5 per cent compared with 2023 in the UK but are still well above pre-pandemic levels, while personal insolvencies in 2024 rose 14 per cent on 2023. 

Ric Traynor, executive chair of restructuring firm Begbies Traynor, says 2025 could end up being a “watershed moment, where thousands of UK businesses ‘call time’ after struggling to survive for years”.

This year started badly for many companies after a tough Christmas trading period.

Tim Cooper, president of R3, the UK’s insolvency and restructuring trade body, and a partner at law firm Addleshaw Goddard, says corporate insolvency levels in January were the highest in more than five years in the UK.

Years of challenging trading conditions and anticipation of the rise in minimum wage and employers’ national insurance contributions could be to blame, he says. And creditors have “now largely abandoned the benign attitude they had in the aftermath of the pandemic as they attempt to manage their own debts”. 

Kroll, the risk and financial advisory services provider, points to an increase in administrations in 2024 to 1,330, from 1,259 in 2023.

Manufacturing was most affected, with a 20 per cent increase year-on-year, followed by construction — two sectors with often thin margins and quickly hit by higher energy costs, access to finance and immigration issues. 

Recruitment businesses also saw a jump in administrations, reflecting uncertainty in the jobs market, while the media and tech sectors were hit by declining advertising revenues.

Sarah Rayment, global co-head of restructuring at Kroll, says the firm’s transaction, valuation and M&A teams have been “working flat out”.

“Higher borrowing and operating costs, magnified by geopolitical risk, are causing businesses to re-evaluate their strategies and opportunities to recapitalise,” she adds. 

These companies are seeking to refinance and restructure their operations, often looking to private equity groups for new investment. But while bigger companies can afford access to restructuring experts, smaller groups face the risk of collapse. 

David Fleming, a managing director at restructuring practice KR8 Advisory, predicts fewer insolvencies, but “a lot of financial restructuring”, particularly in sectors where too many smaller companies have taken on higher levels of debt. 


Many companies managed to refinance debts before and during the pandemic at low interest rates, but the cost of borrowing has gone up. 

According to consultancy Begbies Traynor, the number of businesses in the UK entering “critical” financial distress rose by 50.2 per cent to 46,853 companies in the final quarter of 2024, up from 31,201 in the previous quarter, especially among those linked to consumer industries.

Julie Palmer, a partner at the firm, notes an “unprecedented level of growth” in the number of companies at serious risk of insolvency, which she attributes to “volatile” consumer confidence, high borrowing costs and the tax and minimum wage increases.

Politics is also creating uncertainty. If Trump’s goal is to “repatriate wealth to the US”, Fleming says, it means “everyone else is a net loser”, including Europe and the UK unless they have the economic power to fight back or to divert trade elsewhere, he adds. “There’s not a lot to suggest that the European economy and political leadership are going to be able to make that happen.”

>>> After Hours Summary: ROOT +16.5%, NTNX +15.3%, AMBA +10.5%, SNOW +9.8%, LZ +

After Hours Summary: ROOT +16.5%, NTNX +15.3%, AMBA +10.5%, SNOW +9.8%, LZ +9%, RSI +8.7% higher on earnings; IBTA -37.5%, TNDM -16.9%, TDOC -15.4%, AAOI -10%, SG -9.7%, EBAY -8.9% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ROOT +16.5%, NTNX +15.3%, CORZ +13% (also expands relationship with CoreWeave; new deal brings an additional $1.2 bln in contracted revs), MQ +11.7% (also CEO steps down; also to acquire TransactPay; also authorizes up to $300 mln for repurchases), AMBA +10.5%, SNOW +9.8% (also securely integrates Microsoft Azure OpenAI service), LZ +9%, RSI +8.7%, ESTA +8.6%, MARA +7.6%, GRBK +7.3% (also increases share repurchase authorization to $100 mln), MNKD +7.3% (also files mixed shelf securities offering), TWI +6.8%, HEI +5.9%, ARDT +5.7%, CPK +5.1%, EVTC +5.1%, VSEC +5% (also names new COO and other execs), CPRX +5% (also pursuing strategic investments), SPCE +4.7%, UHS +4.6%, FWRD +4.1%, VIR +4.1%, SBGI +3.7%, JOBY +3.4% (also reports record certification progress and delivery of second aircraft to US Air Force), TALO +3.2%, CDNA +3%, URBN +3%, ADTN +2.9%, TASK +2.9%, KW +2.8%, RLAY +2.7%, USPH +2.4%, SNPS +2.2%, SUI +2.1%, HHH +1.9%, WES +1.5%, SEMR +1.4% (also Co-Founder/CEO to focus exclusively on product innovation and AI as new CTO), KROS +1.4%, CORT +0.9%, SDGR +0.7%, WHD +0.6%, FTAI +0.3%, ERII +0.2% (also names new CTO, announces new $30 mln buyback auth), STR +0.2%, VTOL +0.2%, AIN +0.1% (also new $250 mln share repurchase program), MYRG +0.1% (also authorizes new $75 mln share repurchase program), NSA +0.1%, VIST +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: BLND +4.5% (to expand income and employment verification platform), STAA +1.9% (names new CEO), ZVIA +1.7% (files $50 mln mixed shelf securities offering), EXLS +1.5% (stock offering by selling shareholder), WES +1.5% (announces Pathfinder pipeline, expansion of Delaware Basin produced-water system, and 2025 guidance; to recommend 4% increase in base distribution), TPB +1.1% (increases dividend), ALL +0.8% (authorizes new $1.5 bln share repurchase program; also increases dividend), XEL +0.7% (increases dividend), DINO +0.7% (files mixed shelf securities offering; also files for 16,057,699 shares of common stock offering by selling shareholder)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: IBTA -37.5%, TNDM -16.9%, TDOC -15.4%, AAOI -10%, SG -9.7%, EBAY -8.9%, PSTG -8.9% (also authorizes up to $250 mln in additional buybacks), IONQ -8.8% (also names new CEO; also to acquire ID Quantique and enters into quantum strategic partnership with SK Telecom; also announces $500 mln ATM stock offering; also files mixed shelf securities offering), HNST -7.4%, MGNI -6.2%, AI -6.1%, KTOS -4.8% (also announces 50/50 partnership with RAFAEL Advanced Defense for solid rocket motors), CRM -4.5%, MIRM -4.4%, FE -3.8%, GEF -3.8%, A -3.7%, BYND -3.7% (also announces further restructuring initiatives, including workforce reduction), SRPT -3.1%, SDRL -3%, KNTK -2.6%, NMFC -2.3%, OVV -2.1%, PARA -2%, CRH -1.7% (also increases dividend; also commencing an additional $0.3 bln tranche), RVMD -1.6%, TKO -1.6%, WTRG -1.4%, CRGY -1.3%, INVA -1.2%, APA -1.1%, VAC -1%, ATEC -0.8%, INVH -0.8%, MTTR -0.7%, MORN -0.6%, EXE -0.5%, AMED -0.5%, PDCO -0.5%, EPR -0.4%, NVDA -0.4%, ORA -0.4%, CERT -0.2%, FSK -0.2%, MDXG -0.2%, HG -0.2%, PEB -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: MRNA -5% (Trump administration contemplates pulling bird flu vaccine funding, according to Bloomberg), KDP -2.4% (stock offering by selling shareholder for 73 mln shares), SMCI -2.3% (now complies with Nasdaq; matter with SEC is now closed), DOX -1.2% (announces partnership with Google Cloud to optimize 5G network ops with AI), GOGO -0.5% (to delay 10-K filing), PKG -0.1% (CFO to retire, names new CFO; announces other exec changes), IOSP -0.1% (announces partnership with UNESCO), IIPR -0.1% (amends equity distribution agreement)