FT : Hedge funds to blame for coffee price surge, says Lavazza boss

Hedge funds to blame for coffee price surge, says Lavazza boss
Italian company chair blames speculators for ‘80 per cent’ of price rise that created ‘unbelievable’ volatility

Hedge funds and other financial speculators were to blame for “80 per cent” of the surge in coffee prices that created “unbelievable” volatility and uncertainty in the market, the head of the Lavazza coffee company said.

Giuseppe Lavazza, chair of Lavazza Group, which owns the eponymous brand, hit out at the “big investment funds” that had driven prices to levels that were “totally unsustainable for the industry, totally unsustainable even for the consumer”.

London robusta futures, the global benchmark, soared to a record high of more than $5,700 per tonne in January. Prices have eased since on hopes of improved harvests to about $3,500 per tonne this week. But the benchmark is still well above the historical average of $1,700.

“Coffee, over the last four years, where coffee prices rose so much, 80 per cent is speculation, especially hedge funds,” Lavazza told a gathering of journalists on the sidelines of the Wimbledon tennis tournament.

Factors such as bad harvests had contributed but the “hedge funds really made a difference”.

“Coffee is a big market, but the futures market is a small one. So with [a small amount of] money, you can create a big, big tsunami,” said Lavazza, the fourth generation of his family to lead the company. “This is not a big risk, but if they win the race, they can gain a lot of money.”

He continued: “The volatility and uncertainty that put into the market, it’s really unbelievable . . . for roasters, for traders and even for producers.”

Coffee consumption had fallen 3.5 per cent over the past two years due to the high prices, he said.

Hedge funds and other speculators have long been blamed for huge moves in commodity prices, with so-called commodity trading advisers — funds that typically latch on to strong upward or downward price trends — viewed as particularly culpable.

Fund managers say they provide liquidity to markets and are only active in areas that already exist.


Yet Lavazza said liquidity issues and soaring margins calls — the additional capital traders are required to put up to maintain futures market positions — had tipped some in the industry over the edge. 

Netherlands-based Mercon Coffee Group, one of the world’s largest coffee traders, filed for bankruptcy in late 2023 at the start of the current rally.

Lavazza had been forced to dramatically increase its working capital, with the Turin-based company spending €1.6bn to buy coffee last year, up from €600mn in 2018.  

The Italian executive, who has complained that the £4 cost of an espresso in London was too high, said consumer coffee prices had “hopefully” now peaked.

However prices could rise again due to new deforestation regulations proposed by the EU and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs plans. 

Lavazza said Trump’s levy on EU goods was “fine” but warned that tariffs between the US and coffee-producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam would be more challenging and push up prices for American consumers.

But this was “manageable” compared with the proposed EU law to ban imports of a group of seven commodities, including coffee, from being sold on the bloc’s market if they were grown on deforested land. 

The proposed regulation that is due to come into force at the end of the year has been criticised by 18 member states including Italy, as well as chocolate companies such as Cadbury owner Mondelez.

“It’s very tough, because it really puts some very strong limits for European roasters to import good coffee,” Lavazza said. The legislators pushing it “don’t have any idea how our business works”, he added.

FT : Top financial watchdog recommends limits on hedge fund leverage

Top financial watchdog recommends limits on hedge fund leverage
FSB proposes that non-banks provide more disclosure on borrowing amid rising concern the sector could trigger new crisis

Hedge funds and other non-bank groups could face limits on the amount of leverage they can use and may have to provide more disclosure to regulators about their borrowing, under plans put forward by the world’s financial stability watchdog.

The Financial Stability Board (FSB) said on Wednesday that its recommended measures — which follow a consultation announced late last year — were designed to tackle the build-up of leverage in non-banks, which “can be an important amplifier of stress. If not properly managed, it can create risks to financial stability.”

The plans highlight the belief among central bankers and regulators that hedge funds and other non-bank actors such as private credit funds, which often make heavy use of leverage but enjoy lighter regulation than banks, pose one of the biggest threats to the global financial system.

Regulators have warned about the so-called Treasury basis trade, a highly leveraged bet in which hedge funds short US government bond futures while borrowing money to take a cash position, hoping the two prices will converge. The unwinding of this trade was blamed for a sharp sell-off in bond markets in March 2020, while hedge funds were also widely seen as exacerbating Treasury market turbulence in April this year.

On Wednesday, the Bank of England said it would consult on ways to address vulnerabilities in UK repo markets, with hedge fund borrowing reaching a record high of £77bn. A “small number of hedge funds” accounted for 90 per cent of net gilt borrowing, the BoE said.

The measures recommended by the FSB, which was set up by the G20 group of countries after the 2008 crisis to co-ordinate global financial regulation, include requiring non-banks to disclose more data on leverage, making more transactions centrally cleared, imposing tougher rules on borrowing via refinancing markets and even setting outright limits on leverage levels for some funds.

It provided a range of options for national regulators to choose from to “help guide authorities in selecting, designing, and calibrating policy measures”, it added.

Hedge funds criticised parts of the FSB’s proposals.

“The report’s recommendations on blunt entity-level caps and minimum haircut requirements are not appropriate tools to reduce risk in the financial system, and could have unintended, negative consequences for economic growth and financial stability,” said Bryan Corbett, head of the Managed Fund Association, which represents the biggest hedge funds, including Millennium Management, Citadel and Apollo Global Management.

However, Corbett welcomed the FSB’s “focus on enhancing central clearing and counterparty risk management as targeted tools to address risky forms of leverage, and agree that current leverage measurement approaches are inflexible and flawed”.

The Alternative Investment Management Association, which represents hundreds of hedge funds, private credit funds and private equity groups, said it supported the idea of “more harmonised risk reporting to financing counterparties while preserving confidentiality”, which it said would “reduce the need for blunt regulatory tools”.

The non-bank sector — which includes hedge funds, private equity, insurers and pension funds — has grown to almost half of global financial assets over the past decade, with “business models and strategies continuously evolving and often using leverage”, the FSB said. 

It said the measures would allow national authorities to “identify financial stability risks created by non-bank financial intermediation leverage and have appropriate policy measures in place to address the risks that they identify”.

The FSB also announced the creation of a new task force to identify and address areas where it lacks sufficient data on the build-up of leverage outside of banks. 

The task force will be led by Andrew Bailey, who this month took on a three-year mandate as FSB chair alongside his role as Bank of England governor. It will start by conducting a test case on “leveraged trading strategies in sovereign bond markets”. 

The FSB said it had “identified several data challenges that have hindered the effective assessment of non-bank sector vulnerabilities by authorities”. It plans to publish a report on sovereign bond leveraged trading strategies by the middle of next year.

As well as bond market turmoil in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic and earlier this year, regulators’ concerns intensified following the collapse of family office Archegos Capital Management four years ago, which left investment banks with $10bn of losses, and the UK gilt market crisis three years ago, which was triggered by derivative-linked strategies in pension funds.

The FSB said there was a positive side to non-bank leverage, which “can enhance efficiency and support liquidity in financial markets”.

But it added: “This is only feasible when leveraged entities maintain sufficient headroom to increase risk and leverage, including having sufficient liquidity.”

FT : UK set to hold minority stake in Sizewell C nuclear project

UK set to hold minority stake in Sizewell C nuclear project
Ministers are closing in on a final deal to secure private investment into the multibillion pound development

The UK government is set to hold a minority stake in the Sizewell C nuclear power project as ministers close in on a final deal to secure private investment into the multibillion pound development.

The government’s stake is expected to be diluted to around 47.5 per cent, with Canadian investor Brookfield Asset Management, British energy supplier Centrica and French energy giant EDF holding the remainder, according to people with knowledge of the ongoing negotiations.

Brookfield is likely to take a 25 per cent stake, with Centrica buying 15 per cent, the people said.

EDF, which is leading the development of the site, said on Tuesday it would reduce its holdings to 12.5 per cent. The announcement came as part of French President Emmanuel Macron’s state visit to the UK this week.

The Suffolk project is part of a push by the UK government to use nuclear power to ease Britain’s transition away from fossil fuels such as gas in electricity generation.

UK energy secretary Ed Miliband said last month that Sizewell would be the beginning of a “golden age” for nuclear in Britain. He also said the project would be “majority public funded”. The government has committed £14.2bn.

The final cost of Sizewell could be close to £40bn, according to industry estimates that the government and Sizewell have not accepted. The British government currently owns about 84 per cent of the project.

Electricity consumers will be charged a fee on their bills to help fund Sizewell’s construction, reducing the risk for investors.

Brookfield and Centrica declined to comment. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said the government would remain a “significant” shareholder. EDF declined to comment.

EDF yesterday said its total investment would be a maximum of £1.1bn. The company has already invested around £600mn. Bpifrance, the country’s export credit agency, is also providing a £5bn debt guarantee.

FT : Revolut in talks to raise new funding at $65bn valuation

Revolut in talks to raise new funding at $65bn valuation
Fintech aiming to secure $1bn from investors in private round led by Greenoaks

Revolut is in talks to raise new funding from investors at a $65bn valuation, according to people familiar with the matter, in a transaction that would fuel global expansion for Europe's most valuable start-up.

The UK-based financial technology group is in discussions to raise about $1bn of funding via newly issued shares and the sale of some existing stock, two of the people said.

The US investment firm Greenoaks is in talks to lead the private funding round, one person said, cautioning that details had not been finalised. 

Revolut conducted a sale of existing shares about a year ago at a $45bn valuation. 

The Financial Times previously reported that Revolut chief executive Nik Storonsky was in line for an outsized compensation package should the company reach a $150bn valuation. 

Revolut and Greenoaks declined to comment.

FT : EU to remove UAE and Gibraltar from money laundering ‘grey’ list

EU to remove UAE and Gibraltar from money laundering ‘grey’ list
Gulf state had raised the issue in trade talks with Brussels

EU lawmakers have voted to remove the United Arab Emirates and Gibraltar from the bloc’s “grey” list of countries with lax money laundering controls, in a move set to ease talks towards a trade deal with Abu Dhabi.

The two are among eight jurisdictions set to be removed from the list, which carries reputational damage and adds costs to transactions involving people or entities from listed countries, as financial institutions must carry out extra due diligence.

Abu Dhabi had raised the issue as an irritant in trade talks with Brussels, prompting Maroš Šefčovič, the EU’s trade commissioner, to ask parliamentarians from his social democrat grouping to support the European Commission’s proposal to remove the UAE and other countries from the list, said several people present at a meeting ahead of the vote.

The removals will take effect in the coming weeks after publication in the official journal.

Gibraltar’s delisting was controversial among Spanish members of the European parliament, as Madrid claims sovereignty over the British overseas territory.

Last year, MEPs rejected a move to remove Gibraltar and the UAE from the list over that issue and worries about the latter’s standards on anti-money-laundering — concerns that were raised again this year.

A majority of groupings in the parliament, meanwhile, backed adding Russia to the grey list during a hearing last week, according to people who were present.

But a last-minute pledge by the commission to reconsider listing Russia by the end of this year helped win support from a majority of MEPs for the commission’s list of removals.

The commission welcomed the outcome, saying it “acknowledges the important and successful efforts undertaken by the countries that are being delisted in strengthening the effectiveness of their frameworks for fighting money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism”.

Ahmed Ali Al Sayegh, a minister of state in the UAE’s foreign ministry, said the country welcomed the move. “The UAE remains a reliable and strategic partner to the EU, committed to ensuring AML/CFT systems are not only robust, but also future-proof and capable of addressing emerging global threats.

“We look forward to unlocking the full potential of the UAE-EU partnership, fostering closer co-operation, enhanced prosperity and shared security for our regions and peoples,” he added.

The EU’s anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing grey list usually follows the one issued by the Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental body set up to combat terrorism financing and money laundering. FATF delisted the UAE and Gibraltar in 2024.

Russia’s membership of FATF was suspended a year after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but several countries with links to Russia are expected to oppose any move to add it to the FATF grey list.

The EU could decide to list Russia independently of the FATF, but has so far resisted doing so for fear of litigation.

Other countries to be removed from the list following Wednesday’s vote are Barbados, Jamaica, Panama, the Philippines, Senegal and Uganda.

The MEPs also voted to add Algeria, Angola, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Laos, Lebanon, Monaco, Namibia, Nepal and Venezuela to the grey list.

FT : Thames Water refuses to claw back bonuses despite government threats

Thames Water refuses to claw back bonuses despite government threats
Chair of troubled utility recalled to give evidence to parliamentary committee amid fresh concerns

Thames Water has refused to claw back bonuses worth £2.5mn, despite UK government threats to block what ministers dubbed “outrageous” payments at the utility that is trying to avoid renationalisation.

The bonuses handed out to 21 senior staff in April were disclosed on Wednesday in a dump of documents by the parliamentary environment committee. It has recalled heads of Thames Water to give evidence next week amid “new financial concerns” for the UK’s biggest water company.

The bonuses were the first instalment of a package of planned payouts to reward senior staff for securing a £3bn emergency loan from the company’s senior creditors in the spring.

Thames Water chair Sir Adrian Montague said in correspondence to the committee released on Wednesday that there had been “no discussions” with government or the regulator, Ofwat, “in relation to recovering those payments which have already been made”.

“The board does not intend to recover this money.”

Environment secretary Steve Reed in May vowed to block the payments that the government described as an attempt by Thames bosses “to try to plunder the company”.

Thames Water then said it would “pause and reconsider” the so-called “retention payments” to its senior staff. The senior management team was set to receive £18.5mn before the outcry.

Ministers have since clarified that legislation to block bonuses will only cover chief executives or chief financial officers of a handful of water suppliers this year, including Thames Water. The company’s payout does not include bonuses to Montague, its chief executive or chief financial officer.

In a separate letter to the committee, Ofwat disclosed that it had not known about the bonuses before an evidence session with MPs in May. Ofwat chief executive David Black said the watchdog was “disappointed at the lack of transparency that Thames Water has shown in this regard”.

Black admitted that Ofwat does not have the power to claw back the bonuses because none of its recipients are Thames board members.

Thames Water said: “Retention plans are commonplace in these types of deals for precisely this purpose and ours was based on extensive benchmarking of similar capital market events like M&A deals and restructurings. It was fully disclosed as part of the term sheet in October last year, albeit details were not agreed until Spring 2025.”

Thames Water is struggling under nearly £20bn of debt and is teetering on the brink of temporary renationalisation under the government’s special administration regime. The cost of a SAR is estimated to be between £3.5bn to £5bn, according to experts cited in a letter from the water company released by the committee.

Reed told the committee he expected any government funding for a SAR to be recouped after the administration or via future customer bills.

Thames Water’s top-ranking bondholders group is now the de facto frontrunner to take control of the UK’s largest water company after US private equity firm KKR walked away from its bid to recapitalise the company last month. Ofwat is deliberating on a backup plan by the utility’s senior creditors to provide fresh equity of nearly £4bn to rescue the group. 

In his letter to the environment committee, Montague said other approaches had occurred in recent weeks, although he did not appear to give them much credibility.  

“We have also been approached by an entity which identifies as Titanium SPV, although we have been unable to verify that such entity exists,” he wrote. 

“And in very recent days we have been approached by an individual connected with the water industry with an outline plan to recapitalise Thames Water by tokenisation of debt but with no or low equity injected.”

Thames Water also told the committee that it could face up to £480mn of fresh fines “on a worst case analysis basis” as a result of the Environment Agency, another watchdog, stepping up its inspection and enforcement regime on the company.

That would be in addition to £900mn of potential fines that it has previously estimated it could receive over the next five years for leaks and sewage spills.

The government has recently rejected demands from the bondholders that Thames Water be exempted from environmental laws.

FT : EU warns airline delays could be at worst ever this summer

EU warns airline delays could be at worst ever this summer
Understaffed air traffic controllers face strikes, wildfires and high demand for flying

The EU has warned that airline delays could be at their worst ever this summer as under-staffed air traffic controllers battle strikes, wildfires and high demand.

EU officials said on Wednesday that the air traffic control system was operating at its limit because of a shortage of staff and demand for flying reaching new highs after the Covid-19 pandemic.

“Last year, we had the worst summer ever in terms of delays and cancellations. This year will be very similar,” a senior EU official said.

Around 37,000 flights fly in Europe on the busiest days in its airspace — the limit of what air traffic controllers can manage, the official added.

Eurocontrol, the air traffic control body, said in April that air traffic was already up 5 per cent in the year so far compared to the same period in 2024. Overall air traffic flow management delays were also up 5 per cent, it said.

“Lack of air traffic control capacity to cope with traffic demand is expected to cause high delays” in nine countries including France, Germany, Greece and Spain — some of the region’s most popular tourist hotspots.

Compounding the issue is industrial action, particularly in France. Two days of strikes by air traffic control staff at French airports over ageing equipment and staff shortages last week forced 4,000 flights across the bloc to be disrupted, said Eurocontrol. Thursday’s strike alone cost around €100 per minute, the organisation said.

Air France-KLM, which operates many flights out of Paris Charles de Gaulle airport, risked millions of euros of losses linked to the disruption, French transport minister Philippe Tabarot said.

Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the EU’s transport commissioner, said the bloc was operating with reduced airspace because of the war in Ukraine, which alongside the air control staff shortages “threaten to strain our aviation network and frustrate passengers”.

With airports “busier than ever”, “Europe cannot afford chaos in the skies,” he said.

Steve Heapy, chief executive of Jet2 told investors on Wednesday that the strikes had caused “a lot of worried customers” although the airline had continued flying.

Wildfires were also a leading problem. Europe is one of the regions most exposed to the effects of climate change, with wildfires forcing the temporary closure of Marseille airport on Tuesday. In Greece, tourist attractions such as the Acropolis have also been closed as a result of the extreme heat.

The senior official said that the effects of climate change were “a big concern. For the future, we see a lot more extreme weather events”, many of which were “quite dangerous for aviation”.

Another major cause of the delays is the lack of air traffic control staff. Tzitzikostas sent EU transport ministers a letter ahead of a meeting in June asking them to ensure that air traffic controllers “actually deliver the capacity they have formally promised and deploy air traffic controllers in the locations and in the time slots they are most needed”.

Officials said that while some pilots can gain their flying licences in one year, in some parts of Europe air traffic control staff have to undergo five years of training and that the commission was trying to work with aviation safety agencies to revise those rules.

Rafael Schvartzman, vice-president for Europe at the International Air Transport Association, said the constantly increasing delays were “unacceptable”. “The gap between targets and reality is approaching fantasy levels, and there are no penalties for this continued abject failure,” he said.

Airlines also said that Brussels should complete the “Single European Sky”, an initiative enabling carriers flying within the bloc to take the most direct routes to their destinations, rather than forcing them to take diversions because of fragmented air traffic control.

“When you fly from London Stansted down to Cyprus you fly via a number of air points in the sky. It is not at all a straight line . . . but the EU has been frustratingly slow,” said a person familiar with the thinking at one large tour operator.

WSJ : The Fight Between Musk Acolytes and the White House for Control of DOGE

The Fight Between Musk Acolytes and the White House for Control of DOGE
Elon Musk’s allies are fighting for influence at DOGE as the White House moves to neuter the office

  • Even after Elon Musk’s departure, his loyalists are striving to maintain DOGE’s influence and legacy within the government.
  • Steve Davis, Musk’s former lieutenant, is talking frequently to DOGE officials, sparking concerns about outside influence.
  • White House officials are scrutinizing DOGE’s work, reversing contract cuts, and giving agency heads control over DOGE staffers.

Elon Musk has left the government, but his clout at DOGE lives on.

Weeks after the billionaire left his role at the Department of Government Efficiency amid his feud with President Trump, a small band of Musk loyalists is fighting to preserve the legacy—and power—of the government-slashing office.

Current and former officials close to DOGE say that in closed meetings, staffers have been quizzed on questions of their loyalty: Trump or Musk?

The fight has pitted DOGE officials against some in the White House who are seeking to diminish DOGE’s role, and has triggered infighting and paranoia within the group’s diminished ranks, according to people familiar with the matter.

Musk’s influence continues to be felt at DOGE largely through Steve Davis, who was his top lieutenant at DOGE before leaving the government in May, according to some of those people. Despite no longer being a government employee, Davis continues to give directions to DOGE officials regularly and has privately told some of them that his departure was “fake news,” say people familiar with the conversations.

An official close to Davis and Musk said Davis isn’t giving directions and conversations with current DOGE officials are informal.

Some current and former DOGE officials say allies of Musk want to finish the work they started and usher in a DOGE 2.0 focused more on revamping government websites and information-technology systems than cutting government workers. But others, including some inside the White House, say they believe Musk and Davis are keeping tentacles in government to help their businesses.

During his time at DOGE, Musk and his allies helped SpaceX, Tesla and X employees get jobs across the government. A Federal Aviation Administration spokeswoman said the agency has been testing Starlink connections in several states.

DOGE featured prominently in the early days of Trump’s second term, but became a political headache for the White House after it failed to achieve the savings promised by Musk. DOGE says it has saved $190 billion through a combination of asset sales, contract cancellations, job cuts and other moves. Budget experts across the political spectrum question that claim.

The tug of war over DOGE carries risks for Musk, who has a large book of government contracts and is managing the plummeting fortunes of Tesla, his electric-vehicle company. Trump told reporters last week that “We might have to put DOGE on Elon. You know what DOGE is? DOGE is the monster that might have to go back and eat Elon.”

Trump made the comments in response to Musk’s recent criticism of Trump’s sprawling tax-and-spending bill—which lawmakers passed and the president signed—and its contributions to the federal debt. On Saturday, Musk said that he created a new political party called the America Party to challenge Republicans and Democrats.

Musk and Davis didn’t respond to requests for comment. White House spokesman Harrison Fields said that “Many Presidents have promised, but none other than President Trump has delivered to actually make government more efficient and root out waste, fraud, and abuse in Washington, and that mission is moving full steam ahead.”

DOGE no longer appears central to that mission. Trump has told aides he is over DOGE’s aggressive and at-times reckless tactics, according to people familiar with his comments.

Some officials have expressed concern about their ability to trust DOGE workers who remain loyal to Musk. The White House has given agency heads more control over DOGE staffers who have moved out of their home base at the General Services Administration and into federal agencies, those people said.

Last month, the head of the Social Security Administration, Frank Bisignano, sought to lessen DOGE’s influence internally and approached the White House for guidance. The response: Agency heads can decide whom to keep or cut. Bisignano parted ways with one DOGE staffer from SSA, who in June moved to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, people familiar with the matter said.

Officials in the Trump administration have also begun scrutinizing DOGE’s work more closely, including contract cuts ordered by DOGE officials and, in some cases, stepping in to reverse them, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

When Musk first attacked Trump on X a month ago, leading to the real-time implosion of their relationship, some DOGE staffers immediately wondered whether they were about to be fired.

“This is obviously beyond crazy,” Davis texted an associate on June 5, about a week after he left the government. “But mission and actions remain the same until we are forced out.”

Davis, who has served as Musk’s right-hand man at companies including X, SpaceX, and the Boring Company, has continued to speak with DOGE staffers since leaving the government. He often communicates with them over Signal, and sometimes calls certain staffers multiple times a week, according to people close to DOGE.

“Steve is out of government, but he’s not out of DOGE,” Anthony Armstrong, a former Morgan Stanley banker and top DOGE official, told staff in early June, according to meeting notes viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Musk has also talked to DOGE staffers since his breakup with Trump. At a June 10 meeting, Musk, Davis and Katie Miller, a top Musk adviser and the wife of White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, told key DOGE employees that Musk continues to back their work, encouraging them to stay the course.

The efforts by Musk’s allies to keep a foothold at DOGE have been complicated not only by White House officials but by employees within DOGE itself.

Some senior DOGE officials have expressed concerns about Davis—an outside businessman connected to the world’s richest man—continuing to potentially have access to sensitive government information through his DOGE contacts. Some of them have conveyed their concerns to White House officials.

Davis subsequently pushed for their firing, calling their back-channeling an attempted coup, according to current and former employees close to DOGE.

Sam Corcos, a DOGE staffer working in a senior role at the Treasury Department, told people he didn’t accept that Davis had any continuing authority over DOGE after leaving the government. Subsequently, Davis urged the firing of Corcos and other staffers, and told DOGE staffers not to talk to Corcos, people familiar with the events said.

Corcos, who remains in his role, is implementing the “IRS modernization plan that taxpayers have deserved for over three decades,” a Treasury spokeswoman said.

Other people close to Musk are carrying on DOGE’s work, most notably Airbnb co-founder and Tesla board member Joe Gebbia, who is now a senior official at the Office of Personnel Management.

In late June, allies of both Davis and Musk made a pitch to White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles on DOGE’s future, essentially auditioning for continued roles at the group.

Their message: DOGE is moving on from its destructive phase to “growth mode,” focusing on rebuilding what they describe as customer-facing parts of the government.

Using “Mad Men”-style boards for a presentation, Gebbia pitched a plan for a refurbished National Parks website, among other things. “Susie listened,” a White House official said. “There were no major decisions made.”

FT : India ban threatens Jane Street’s money machine

India ban threatens Jane Street’s money machine
Allegations of market manipulation and temporary block on activities pose wider risks for Wall Street trader

India has been a money machine for Jane Street, netting the trading giant more than $4bn in profits in just over two years. But it is now the source of a scandal that is imperilling the Wall Street firm’s golden run.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India last week accused Jane Street of a “sinister scheme” to manipulate Indian stocks and derivatives, temporarily banned its activities in the country and impounded more than $550mn of “illegal gains” — the most draconian penalty it has ever levied. It is now expanding its probe into the firm’s trades in other parts of India’s financial markets.

Jane Street denies any wrongdoing. In an internal memo seen by the Financial Times, senior executives said they were “beyond disappointed” by Sebi’s report and planned a formal response to its “extremely inflammatory” claims. 

Although the firm is famously wary of financial risk, and generally seen to be equally averse to regulatory and reputational scrapes, its rapid growth and a loose management structure designed for a smaller organisation may have contributed to its Indian travails. 

At the heart of Sebi’s case is the charge that Jane Street intentionally manipulated Indian bank stocks to engineer huge pay-offs on parallel options bets it had placed on the level of India’s BankNifty index.

What Jane Street said was “basic index arbitrage” — taking advantage of often large mismatches between India’s stock market and the huge derivatives market that has mushroomed on top of it — Sebi argued was an “intentional, well-planned, and sinister scheme and artifice”.

Jane Street was not the only large foreign trading firm to seize on these opportunities but it stood out “because they went completely ballistic”, according to Abhay Agarwal, founder and fund manager at Piper Serica in Mumbai.

Among rivals there was a mix of shock and schadenfreude at the allegations, which have plunged the hugely successful trading firm into crisis. 



Alexander Gerko, founder of XTX Markets, said his first reaction was to think that “it’s not illegal to be smarter than your counterparties”. However, the details of the Indian regulator’s 105-page report changed his mind. “If you read the allegations made in the Sebi filing, the whole thing appears to stink very badly,” he wrote in a LinkedIn post. 

Jane Street was founded by a handful of former traders and technologists in 2000, the start of a golden era for high-frequency trading firms that used algorithms, fibre-optic cables and microwave towers to trade faster and more efficiently than traditional brokerages and investment banks. 

However, insiders, rivals and industry analysts say the firm has long subtly differentiated itself from the HFT industry. Although it also hires mostly elite mathematicians, scientists and programmers, and uses algorithms and computing power to automate its activities, it has always been considered more a trading firm than a technology business. 

As a result, it has often specialised in making markets and spotting arbitrage opportunities in knottier areas such as depositary receipts, exchange traded funds, emerging equity markets and derivatives tied to them — where cleverness can trump raw speed.

It has proved phenomenally profitable in recent years, as core markets such as ETFs have flourished and allowed it to expand aggressively into areas including options and even corporate bonds. 

The New York-headquartered firm’s net trading revenues hit $20.5bn last year, up from $2.1bn in 2019. In the first quarter of 2025 it notched up net trading revenues of $7.2bn, more than Morgan Stanley and within touching distance of Goldman Sachs, for generations Wall Street’s most respected trading powerhouse.

However, its breakneck growth — staffing has roughly tripled since the start of 2020 — has challenged what was long a tight-knit, flat and somewhat quirky organisation. With no CEO, chair or traditional management structure, the firm is run by roughly 40 equity partners, the most prominent of whom is Rob Granieri, the sole remaining founder who is often described as first among equals. 

Sebi — which like other Indian regulators has long been seen as protectionist — has taken a reputational hit in recent years after its failure to take definite action following short seller Hindenburg Research’s allegations of market manipulation by the politically connected Adani conglomerate.

But other traders said its preliminary investigation into Jane Street looked thorough. “This is a credible order and [Jane Street’s internal] email leaves a lot of open questions,” one competitor said.

Jane Street can now continue to trade in India after putting the $567mn in an escrow account, but Indian law permits a penalty of three times such gains if the charges are proved.

Moreover, Sebi is now investigating Jane Street’s wider trading, such as in the Sensex and Nifty50 indices. If it finds further evidence of manipulation, its assessment of the firm’s “illegal profits” — and the resulting penalties — could rise higher. “It is difficult to estimate how long all this could take — the scope is quite large,” a Sebi official close to the probe said.

Traders at Jane Street’s rivals now expect regulators in other countries to start making their own inquiries to check for malfeasance in their markets. 

The Indian ban is a huge financial and reputational setback for Jane Street, which entered India’s derivatives market just as it was reaching a frenzied pace, and has made billions out of it.

In December 2020 — when Jane Street first set up its Mumbai arm — the monthly turnover of futures and options markets on the National Stock Exchange had reached nearly $300bn, from just $134.7bn four years earlier, and by December 2024 stood at $512.7bn.

This became a fertile terrain for Jane Street. Between January 2023 and March 2025 the firm netted an overall profit in India of about $4.3bn, Sebi said in its order on Thursday. 

However, with the vast majority of the millions of young Indian retail investors losing money on options, Sebi was growing increasingly concerned. 

It started last year to raise the barriers for options trading, which has quelled the market somewhat. Yet data released on Monday indicated that the number of individual traders rose to 9.6mn in the fiscal year ending March 2025 from 5.8mn two years earlier, while their total annual losses surged from $7.7bn to $12.3bn.

The boom in retail options trading fuelled “liquidity, volatility and with it, opportunity”, said Dinesh Thakkar, chair of Angel One, among the largest stockbrokers in India. “Proprietary trading desks thrive in such environments, leveraging high-frequency and algorithmic strategies.”


With alarm bells already ringing inside Sebi’s Mumbai headquarters, an April 2024 lawsuit in which Jane Street accused Millennium Management of stealing the secrets of its India options strategy caught the regulator’s attention.

It spoke to Jane Street about its India practices in August but was dissatisfied by its “bland statements”, according to last week’s order. After Sebi asked the National Stock Exchange to scrutinise the trader’s behaviour, the NSE in November highlighted Jane Street’s activity around three main banking stocks that comprised 60 per cent of the banking index’s weighting.

By the start of 2025, Sebi was convinced the US trader was manipulating the BankNifty index through stocks to earn a profit on options tied to the benchmark, but did not have enough evidence. Through the NSE it sent Jane Street a caution letter in February, asking it to refrain from large positions and certain trading patterns, and launched a wide-ranging investigation.

A Sebi official said Jane Street had gone quiet after the NSE letter but had resumed similar trades by May, creating a sense of urgency within the regulator and spurring last week’s intervention. In its internal memo, Jane Street’s management said this depiction of events “felt especially far from reality”, arguing they had tweaked their activities to address regulatory concerns and had since been “consistently rebuffed” when seeking further talks.

Sumit Agrawal, a securities lawyer who has worked with the Indian regulator, said the order was “factually extensive and clearly signals regulatory unease with the trading conduct observed around expiry”, but still faced legal hurdles.

It will need to “clear a high bar in establishing that the trades in question constituted market manipulation under Indian securities law”, he said, as merely engaging in “aggressive, high-volume expiry trades, without accompanying deception or evidence of intent to create artificial prices”, did not automatically amount to manipulation.

The case could take years to pass through India’s clogged judicial system but financiers both in India and abroad say it has already dented Jane Street’s image. For many rivals, the question is how precisely it will respond to Sebi’s charges — and what the impact will be on its sprawling global activities. 

Competitors say the apparent thoroughness of the Indian regulator’s report will probably require Jane Street to make any rebuttal public, to contain the fallout on its wider business.

While Jane Street has a strong capital structure — with more than $50bn in members’ equity and long-term debt financing, according to people familiar with the matter — fines and other penalties could sap that.

Moreover, investment banks that help extend financing to Jane Street often have automatic reviews whenever a counterparty is subject to regulatory measures. Many will be loath to cut loose a lucrative client like Jane Street, but scrutiny could hit its ability to trade. Jane Street also has an extensive client-facing business, and some investment managers may decide to step back a little to see how the situation evolves. 

Potentially most problematically, regulators elsewhere could begin to take a closer look at Jane Street, with some rivals girding themselves for another wave of scrutiny in an industry often scapegoated by others in finance. 

As a result, Jane Street’s disruptive, envy-inducing, golden run could be at risk.

“It’s survivable,” said one senior executive at a big rival firm. “But it could take years to regain trust.”