>>> What to look at today - 4th of March 2025

Equities fluctuated as President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China went into effect. Oil extended losses. Financial markets largely took the moment the tariffs came into effect in stride — with Chinese stocks even climbing intraday. In the run-up to the deadline, though, US equities tumbled the most this year, while Treasury note yields earlier fell to the lowest in four months and oil dropped to a three-month low. US tariffs on its biggest trading partners went into effect at midnight New York time as Trump pushes to remake global trade. In response, Canada announced a sweeping package of levies and China retaliated by imposing tariffs as high as 15% on US exports. Investors have been seeking safer havens as they become wary about rising geopolitical tensions and the prospect of tit-for-tat levies. Trump putting tariffs on Canada and Mexico is a broadside against the two biggest US trading partners. The long-promised duties would easily be among the most sweeping of the Trump era, applying to around $1.5 trillion in annual imports. Trump also said Monday that the US would impose tariffs on “external” agricultural products starting on April 2, adding another layer of threats to impose trade barriers on imported goods. He didn’t detail which products would be affected, or if there would be any exceptions. The S&P 500 fell 1.8% on Monday, and a gauge of the Magnificent Seven megacaps sank 3.1%.  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso slipped. The outlook for emerging Asian currencies is worsening again after the new tariffs on China. Trump said Monday that Japan and China are putting the US at an unfair disadvantage when they weaken their currencies.  In Asia, investors are also focusing on the National People’s Congress meeting, which starts in Beijing Wednesday, amid expectations China will spell out measures to stimulate the economy. The annual session will run till March 11.  Communist Party-backed news outlet Global Times reported Monday that Beijing is considering retaliatory measures on US agriculture and food products in response to the president’s latest actions. Investors are looking to China’s NPC for clues on how the country will boost economic growth. Policymakers are expected to push its official budget deficit target to the highest in over three decades, pumping trillions of yuan into a system battling deflation, a property crash and now a trade war with the US. Still, some investors see ways to benefit.In economic data, Monday’s manufacturing reading was the latest in a slew of disappointing US economic reports in the last two weeks, showing weaker housing, rising unemployment claims and a drop in personal spending.  There is a “very small” chance that the US economy tips into a recession, despite the uncertainty surrounding global trade policy, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer David Solomon at the Australian Financial Review Business Summit in Sydney on Tuesday.  Cryptocurrencies remained volatile after Trump stepped up calls for a digital-asset stockpile. Bitcoin declined for a second day after sinking more than 9% on Monday. The MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 100 Index slipped as much as 9.8%. In geopolitics, Trump ordered a pause to all military aid to Ukraine, turning up the heat on Volodymyr Zelenskiy just days after an Oval Office blowup with the Ukrainian president left the support of his country’s most important ally in doubt.  In commodities, oil extended losses from the lowest in almost three months as OPEC+ said it will proceed with plans to revive halted production. Gold steadied after having advanced the previous day.  US After Hours OKTA +15.9% up big on earnings; GCT -13.8% and EBS -8.5% head lower on earnings

Nikkei -1.19% Hang Seng -0.14% CSI -0.04% Shanghai +0.22% Shenzen +0.62%

Eur$ 1.0483 CNH 7.2906 CNY 7.2845 JPY 149.39 GBP 1.2693 CHF 0.8957 RUB 89.7956 TRY 36.4644 WTI$ 68.07 -0.44% Gold 2,886 -0.24% BTC 83,595 -2% ETH 2,091 -0.89%

S&P +0.32% Nasdaq +0.52% EuroStoxx -0.81% FTSE -0.48% Dax -0.57% SMI -0.41%

Macro :
- Hedge Fund Built on Energy Bets Says ‘Clean Is Dead for Now’
- Hedge funds' biggest names — Ken Griffin and Izzy Englander —were stung in a tough February
- Buybacks, M&A Likely to Fuel European Block Trades: ECM Watch
- US to Draw Up Plan for Possible Russia Sanctions Relief: Reuters
- Crypto Stocks Give Up Gains as Bitcoin Down on Reserve Questions
- Foxconn’s Mega-AI Plant Ready in a Year Despite Trump Tariffs
- Goldman CEO Solomon Sees Very Small Chance of US Recession
- Hedge Fund Built on Energy Bets Says ‘Clean Is Dead for Now’

Keep an eye on :
- AOX GY : Alstria Office Sees 2025 FFO EU52M
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Sees 2025 Full Year Revenue Growth of 3% to 5% Y/y
- ALLFG NA : Allfunds FY Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- ASTS US : AST SpaceMobile 4Q Loss per Share 18C
- BG AV : Bawag FY Dividend Beats Est., Sees 2025 Net Above €800m
- GBF GY : Bilfinger Sees 2025 Ebita Margin 5.2% to 5.8%
- BP/ LN : BP to Hire Two More Directors in Pivot Back to Oil & Gas: FT
- 1211 HK : BYD pledges to work with rival Tesla to combat petrol cars
- CAN LN : Canal+ Signs French Cinema Deal with EUR480 Million Investment
- CPRI US : Prada May Also Bid for Jimmy Choo With Versace, Corriere Reports
- CON GY : Continental Sees Little Profit Gain as Muted Car Market Bites
- ATD CN : Seven & i to Reject Couche-Tard’s Buyout Proposal, Yomiuri Says
- CVC NA : CVC, CDP Equity Agree to Buy Italy’s Maticmind
- CVC NA : CVC Raises €4.6 Billion for Longer-Life Private Equity Fund
- DDRIL NO : Dolphin Drilling Holders Offer Up to 60m Shares
- EAPI FP : EuroAPI FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- EDP PL : Portuguese Electricity Demand Rose 3.2% in February, REN Says
- RF FP : Eurazeo Secures €300M for Its Planetary Boundaries Fund
- FIE GY : Fielmann FY Sales Beat Estimates
- FORN SW : Forbo FY Ebit Misses Estimates
- FRE GY : Fresenius Medical Holder Fresenius Offers Shares, Bonds: Terms
- FME GY : Fresenius Seeks €1.1 Billion for Stake in Dialysis Company
- FRES LN : Fresnillo FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- IDIA SW : Idorsia 4Q Operating Loss CHF78M, Est. Loss CHF78.4M
- IPI US : Intrepid Potash 4Q Potash Sales $28.9M Vs. $28.6M Y/y
- KNIN SW : Kuehne + Nagel FY Ebitda Matches Estimates
- LISN SW : Lindt & Spruengli FY Ebit Meets Estimates
- LOGN SW : Logitech COO Moves to President; Company to Leave Role Vacant
- LTMC IM : Lottomatica Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebitda EU840M to EU870M
- LSEG LN : FTSE Russell Allows Euro, Dollar Stocks to Join UK Indexes
- MAP SM : *SUNRISE, MAPFRE, LOOMIS TO JOIN STOXX EUROPE 600
- MAIRE IM : Azzurra Capital Acquires 8% Stake in Nextchem From MI
- MPWI NO : Mowi Starts Strategic Review of Feed Unit to Assess All Options
- OMV AV : OMV, Adnoc Agree on Terms to Form $60 Billion Chemicals Giant
- PKTM AV : Pierer Mobility Says Stefan Pierer Resigns From Board of KTM
- RECT BB : Recticel FY Net Income Misses Estimates
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall Calls Active as Defense Jumps: EMEA Options Snapshot
- ROG SW : Genentech’s TNKase Gets FDA Nod for Acute Ischemic Stroke
- 1913 HK : Prada May Also Bid for Jimmy Choo With Versace, Corriere Reports
- 3382 JP : Seven & i Denies Report it Decided to Reject Couche-Tard Offer
- SIKA SW : Sika AG: SIKA Buys BUILDING FINISHING COMPANY in THE USA
- HO FP : Thales 2025 Sales Forecast Beats Estimates
- 2330 TT : TSMC Unveils $100 Billion US Investment in Boost for Trump (2)
- TWEKA NA : TKH FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- UBSG SW : UBS to Nominate Jungo Brüngger, Tretikov to Board of Directors
- VACN SW : VAT FY Net Sales Meet Estimates
- DG FP : Vinci Wins €92.4M Contract to Upgrade Water Network in Uganda
- WBA US : Walgreens Nears Roughly $10 Billion Deal to be Go Private -- WSJ
- WG/ LN : Wood Group Working With Rothschild on Refinancing Talks: FT

FT : EU to propose new common fundraising to fuel defence splurge

EU to propose new common fundraising to fuel defence splurge

A new common financing mechanism will be proposed to EU leaders as a response to demands for a massive and quick boost to European defence spending, writes Paola Tamma.

Context: Spurred by US President Donald Trump’s demand for Europe to spend more on defence and his rapprochement with Russia, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen will present funding options for a surge in defence spending today ahead of an extraordinary leaders’ summit on Thursday.

These are set to include a new ad hoc funding instrument of an amount roughly equivalent to €93bn in planned but untapped post-pandemic recovery loans, whereby the commission would borrow on the markets and lend to member states, three people familiar with the discussion said. 

Other options set to be mentioned include repurposing regional development funds for military investments. The commission has also said it will allow countries to spend more on defence without incurring sanctions under EU fiscal rules.

Some more ideas that have been floated include pushing the European Investment Bank to invest more in defence, and setting up new credit lines from the European Stability Mechanism, the bailout fund set up after the global financial crisis.

“I will inform the member states through a letter about the re-arm Europe plan. We need a massive surge in defence, without any question,” von der Leyen said yesterday. EU capitals will ultimately decide which of the funding options are acceptable.

Leaders were going to discuss joint defence needs and resources at a summit later this month, but the timeline has been accelerated after Trump’s initiative to start bilateral peace talks with Russia and his threat to withdraw US support to Ukraine. 

“That logic has now been completely upended by Trump’s overtures to Putin — and the need for Europe to demonstrate it can put its money where its mouth is and now,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at political risk analysis firm Eurasia Group.

This week the national leaders have to discuss funding as a matter of urgency, one person said, whereas the discussion about what it should be spent on will follow, with input from Nato. “The money discussion is a lot easier than the discussion of what,” they said.

EU Council president António Costa, who convened and will chair the summit, wrote to Hungary’s Viktor Orbán yesterday to politely dissuade him from his threat to veto the meeting’s attempt to find consensus.

“Regarding European Defence, I welcome the fact that no objections are raised in your letter,” Costa wrote. “I note that there is a divergence on the path to achieve peace [in Ukraine] . . . Nevertheless, we agree on the central objective.”


Shifting attitudes to defence priorities and massive market returns have seen ethical investors quietly drop their reluctance to arms companies.

Reporting for duty
Militarily neutral Ireland is preparing to make it easier to deploy troops overseas, as it considers being part of a future European peacekeeping force in Ukraine, writes Jude Webber.

Context: Ireland’s cabinet is today expected to back a draft bill changing how soldiers can be deployed in peacekeeping missions. Currently, under the so-called triple lock, approval from the UN Security Council, cabinet and parliament is needed to send more than 12 troops abroad.

Simon Harris, Ireland’s foreign, defence and trade minister, says “we cannot have a situation” where permanent security council member Russia could veto Irish deployments. 

His bill seeks to change the triple lock to a double lock — requiring a green light from the cabinet and parliament alone — and would lift to 50 from 12 the number of troops that can be deployed without such approval.

Harris insists the move has not been triggered by calls for a peacekeeping force in Ukraine but Ireland, which has taken in one of the highest proportions of Ukrainian refugees per head and has supported Kyiv with non-lethal aid, is also keen to stress it will not avoid discussion of taking part.

Harris stresses his bill does not mean ending Ireland’s long-held policy of military neutrality. But it is contentious: a recent poll showed 46 per cent of respondents rejected changes to the triple lock, versus 41 per cent in favour. Sinn Féin, Ireland’s main opposition party, has said it will oppose the legislation.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Dassault Aviation (DAU0 TH) +8.6%
  • Thales (CSF TH) +8%
    • Thales 2025 Sales Forecast Beats Estimates
  • BAE (BSP TH) +7.7%
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) +6.4%
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) +5.2%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +5.1%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +4.7%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +2.1%
    • Kion Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 60 euros
  • Safran (SEJ1 TH) +2.1%
  • Raiffeisen (RAW TH) +1.6%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -2%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) -2.1%
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) -2.4%
  • LVMH (MOH TH) -2.5%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -3%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) -3%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -4.2%
  • Continental (CON TH) -4.5%
    • *CONTINENTAL SEES 2025 ADJ EBIT MARGIN ABOUT 6.5% TO 7.5%
  • TAG Immobilien (TEG TH) -4.9%
    • EQS-Adhoc: TAG Immobilien AG to launch new convertible bond offering
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) -6%
    • Fresenius Seeks €1.1 Billion for Stake in Dialysis Company

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +4.8%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -1.4%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.4%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1.7%
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -1.8%
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) -6%
    • Fresenius Seeks €1.1 Billion for Stake in Dialysis Company
MDAX:
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +14%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +4.2%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +3.1%
    • Kion Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 60 euros
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) +1%
    • Bilfinger Sees 2025 Ebita Margin 5.2% to 5.8%
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -1.4%
  • Puma (PUM TH) -1.4%
  • TeamViewer (TMV TH) -1.4%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.7%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -2%
SDAX:
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +12%
  • Medios (ILM1 TH) +4.3%
  • AlzChem Group AG (ACT TH) +3.8%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) +2.1%
  • Fielmann (FIE TH) +1.6%
  • Eckert & Ziegler (EUZ TH) -2%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -2%

FT : Chinese EV maker BYD raises $5.6bn in share sale to drive overseas expansio

Chinese EV maker BYD raises $5.6bn in share sale to drive overseas expansion
Tesla rival says follow-on Hong Kong offering is the biggest in the global automotive sector in a decade

China’s electric vehicle champion BYD said on Tuesday it had raised $5.6bn in the biggest share sale in Hong Kong in four years and the largest equity follow-on offering in the global automotive sector in a decade. 

The Warren Buffett-backed company sold 129.8mn shares at HK$335.20 apiece in the deal, according to a stock exchange filing, representing an 8 per cent discount to its Monday closing price, The share offering had been increased from 118mn, according to term sheet details learned by the Financial Times. 

Its Hong Kong-listed shares fell nearly 7 per cent on Tuesday, but they had still risen by more than 30 per cent so far this year. 

The offering reflected Tesla’s main rival’s growing hunger for funds to fuel its overseas expansion and the trend this year of share sales by mainland-listed companies in the city that marks a recovery in market sentiment and investor interest in H shares — those of Chinese mainland companies listed in Hong Kong.

“BYD has a lot of free cash flow and net cash in China, but it costs a lot to transmit the [renminbi] into the currency outside China,” Citi analysts wrote in a research note. “[It] also lacks flexibility to get regular approvals during the initial overseas capital expenditure cycle fulfilment period.”

The share placing will strengthen BYD’s “capacity to further advance its technological capabilities and accelerate its overseas expansion”, the company said in the filing. 

Shenzhen-based BYD has been making an aggressive push into major markets across the globe, with plans to build localised production lines in Hungary, Turkey and Brazil under way.

China’s foreign investment curbs have prompted some homegrown companies with international ambitions to seek offshore H-share issues. The world’s largest EV battery maker CATL and China’s biggest vehicle exporter Chery both filed for a Hong Kong listing last month. 

BYD’s share sale was the biggest in Hong Kong since food-delivery platform Meituan raised $10bn in 2021.

The transaction attracted long-only funds, sovereign wealth funds and the United Arab Emirates-based Al-Futtaim family office as a strategic investor, with the order book covered multiple times, the group said. The Al-Futtaim group distributes BYD cars in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. 

Middle Eastern investors have been playing an increasingly important role in China’s fast-growing vehicle sector. In late 2023, New York-listed EV maker Nio secured $2.2bn from CYVN, an Abu Dhabi investment group, following a $1bn injection from the same investor earlier that year. Around the same time, Pony.ai, a Chinese self-driving start-up listed on Nasdaq, scored $100mn from Saudi Arabia’s Neom. 

In China, BYD’s cars account for about one-third of all new EVs sold, including pure battery cars and plug-in hybrids. Last year, the company sold 433,000 vehicles in overseas markets, accounting for more than 10 per cent of its total sales volume.

>>> US After Hours Summary: OKTA +15.9% up big on earnings; GCT -13.8% and EBS -

After Hours Summary: OKTA +15.9% up big on earnings; GCT -13.8% and EBS -8.5% head lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: OKTA +15.9% (also announces milestone related to AWS), DAVE +8.9%, NFE +8.4%, NATL +5.9%, HSII +5.5%, RPAY +5.3% (also files stock offering), RILY +4.6% (also completes sale of Atlantic Coast Recycling, suspending going private transaction), CON +4.4%, ADMA +4.2% (also delaying 10-K filing), GTLB +2.4%, SMR +2.4%, ASTS +1%, WTI +0.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: WMB +2.6% (to invest $1.6 bln to provide power generation), PAAS +2% (NCIB renewal), ACMR +1.9% (tool qualified by manufacturer in China), CIFR +1.8% (stock offering), CORT +1.2% (FDA files NDA for Relacorilant), TXG +0.9% (secures injunction against Parse Biosciences), NABL +0.8% (to delay 10-K filing), DNUT +0.8% (names new COO), RKLB +0.6% (schedules first of multiple launches for iQPS), AJG +0.6% (acquires RMA General), BWMX +0.4% (appoints new CFO), CLS +0.4% (files mixed shelf), AXP +0.2% (increases dividend), SRPT +0.1% (files mixed shelf), YEXT +0.1% (introduces AI agent), ANIP +0.1% (FDA approval of Purified Cortrophin Gel), IRWD +0.1% (to delay 10-K filing), RWT +0.1% (files mixed shelf), BMO +0.1% (files $75 bln mixed shelf)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: GCT -13.8%, EBS -8.5%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: DSP -11.4% (acquires Lockr), ATEC -9.5% ($300 mln convertible offering), PLUG -3.3% (path to profitability), ICFI -2.8% (two big contracts of over $210 mln), SJM -1.6% (closes on transaction to divest Cloverhill and Big Texas brands), ACI -1.5% (COO assuming role of CEO), RGEN -1.2% (to delay 10-K filing), LOGI -1% (COO transitioned to President of Logitech for Business), DOMO -0.3% (partners with Koantek), CTO -0.1% (acquires Lifestyle Center), RLGT -0.1% (acquires Transcon Shipping), VRE -0.1% (stock offering)

FT : Bayer’s turnaround man faces ‘crucial’ 12 months at ailing conglomerate

Bayer’s turnaround man faces ‘crucial’ 12 months at ailing conglomerate
Bill Anderson ‘stands and falls’ with direction of European group’s flagging share price, investor says

When Bill Anderson, the US-born chief executive of Germany’s Bayer, last year set out what he called a “radical new operating model” for the conglomerate, he embarked on a wholesale cull of management layers. The drive to introduce the new “dynamic shared ownership” management model is due to cost the jobs of around half of managers at the company, which employs about 94,000 people.

Yet a year after Anderson set out the plan for Bayer — whose products range from over-the-counter painkillers to industrial chemicals — its share price has not recovered. The shares on Monday were changing hands for €23.96, less than half the €52.61 on the day that Anderson took over in June 2023.

The company is due to set out progress on the reorganisation on Wednesday, alongside its annual results.

But Anderson has still, according to investors, to demonstrate that he can tackle a range of challenges. They include legal battles in the US costing billions of euros over claims — which Bayer denies — that the pesticide ingredient glyphosate can cause cancer. It is also suffering from the loss of patent protection on some drugs in its pharmaceutical division and weak demand for its agricultural products.

Ingo Speich, head of sustainability and corporate governance at Deka Investment, said Anderson had not yet been able to present any “groundbreaking successes”.

While Speich said the executive was “still firmly in the saddle”, he issued a warning.

“The next 12 months will be crucial,” Speich said.

Recent years have been humbling for Bayer, which as recently as 2015 was one of Germany’s most valuable listed companies, with a market capitalisation of more than €120bn. That figure has fallen more than 80 per cent and stood at less than €24bn on Monday.

The company has been transformed by its ill-fated $63bn acquisition of the US’s Monsanto in 2018 and a series of spin-offs. The process has left it with three divisions — pharmaceuticals, crop science and consumer health.

Bayer insists that the management reform is progressing better than expected. In a staff survey this quarter, 76 per cent of staff said they were working within the new management structure, according to figures seen by the Financial Times. That compares with just 12 per cent in the second quarter of 2024.

Anderson said in his last update in November that Bayer had cut 5,500 jobs from a previous total of about 100,000 through the reorganisation, mainly shedding management positions. The transformation has happened largely without public resistance from the trade unions.

As well as leaving 95 per cent of decisions to lower-level employees, dynamic shared ownership seeks to accelerate decision-making by evaluating progress on projects every 90 days. Anderson announced the plan at a time that some investors were demanding Bayer break itself up into three separate companies based on the main divisions.

However, the proposal has divided investors.

One fund manager, Union Investment’s Markus Manns, said he supported the focus on the reform because of the anticipated cost savings, expected to amount to €2bn annually by 2026.

Manns said Bayer “urgently” needed to reduce its net financial debt. The consensus forecast from analysts is that, despite a radical dividend cut in 2024, debt declined by only €1.2bn to €33.3bn at the end of 2024. The actual figure will be published as part of Wednesday’s results.

Manns said he had shelved his previous demand for a spin-off of the consumer health division until the reform was complete. However, he said he would put it back on the agenda if Bayer’s share price had not improved by then.

Anderson has ruled out splitting up Bayer until he has made sufficient progress on his four priorities: his management reform, the pipeline of new pharmaceutical products, the litigation situation, and debt levels. All of this might still take at least a year.

“It is very unsatisfactory that the company cannot show any growth,” Manns said. Analysts expect Bayer’s revenues — which were €47.6bn in 2023 — to fall to €46.1bn for 2025. They expect adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, which were €11.7bn in 2023, to fall to €9.4bn for 2025.

Deka Investment’s Speich, meanwhile, said Anderson should have tackled the other issues facing the company before embarking on a revamp of the entire organisation.

Among those are the difficulties at the pharmaceutical division, where Bayer is struggling to replace Xarelto, a blood thinner that once accounted for more than 10 per cent of the division’s revenues. The product’s patent expired last year and cheaper generic versions are taking over the market. Even though sales of prostate cancer drug Nubeqa and chronic kidney disease medicine Kerendia are picking up, they are not as profitable as Xarelto.

The crop science division is suffering from cheaper competition in plant protection as well as weak demand, especially in Latin America. Bayer also still has €6bn in provisions set aside for litigation in the US over the effects of glyphosate in its Roundup weedkiller. Litigants have claimed the ingredient can cause cancer, which it is disputing.

Bayer is lobbying the administration of Donald Trump and state governments to legislate to protect it from further claims. It is also hoping that the US Supreme Court will admit an appeal in the next few months and will rule that federal authorities’ approval of the product protect it from claims in individual states.

On top of the glyphosate litigation, Bayer is facing claims that polychlorinated biphenyls, a Monsanto product used in building materials, caused illness in staff and students at a school in the Seattle area. While Bayer has not so far taken any provisions over that issue, analysts have warned that a ruling in favour of the claimants by the Washington state Supreme Court could produce billions of dollars in additional lawsuits.

Analysts predict that an unfavourable ruling could put further pressure on Bayer’s cash flow and share price, forcing it to sell assets.

However, analysts and Speich hope that, if the litigation is resolved through settlements or another avenue, both Bayer’s share price and Anderson’s hold on his job could benefit.

“His fate stands and falls with the stock price,” Speich said.