>>> Up
* ABB Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 62 Swiss francs
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 170 kronor
* Autoliv GDRs Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 1,220 kronor
* Boliden Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* doValue Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 2.70 euros
* Epiroc Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Know IT Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 150 kronor (+)
* Loihde Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 11.90 euros
* Nokian Renkaat Raised to Hold at Danske Bank Markets (+)
* Rocket Lab PT Raised to $55 from $40 at CFRA
* Rocket Lab PT Raised to $55 from $40 at CFRA
* Schindler Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Wartsila Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 22 euros
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Ashtead Technology PT Cut to 560 pence from 780 pence at RBC
* ASML Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 700 euros
* Beijer Alma Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 270 kronor
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 10 euros
* Engcon Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Lagercrantz Cut to Hold at Danske Bank Markets; PT 239 kronor (+)
* Saab Cut to Sell at Danske Bank Markets; PT 510 kronor (+)
* Saab Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 550 kronor
* Sarepta Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $10
* Sarepta Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $10
* Sarepta Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT $9
* Sarepta Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $15
* Talenom Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4.20 euros
* Tokmanni Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 10.40 euros
* Vaisala Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 55 euros (+)
* Weir Group Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 2,700 pence (+)
>>> Initiation
* Petrobras ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $16
>>> Initiation
* Petrobras ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $16
* Ralph Lauren Rated New Outperform at KGI Securities; PT $367.30 (+)
* So-Young ADRs Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $10.10
* Tenaris Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT 21 euros
* Vallourec Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT 22.60 euros
>>> Call
* ABB’s Outlook Supports Further Re-Rating, Citi Raises to Buy
>>> Call
* ABB’s Outlook Supports Further Re-Rating, Citi Raises to Buy
* Goldman Strategists See Weak Dollar as Modest Tariff Offset
Water regulator Ofwat faces abolition after official review
Overhaul prompted by public anger at pollution and high pay
Ofwat, the water regulator for England and Wales, should be replaced by an “integrated” one for the industry, according to the final recommendations of an independent commission that was set up to probe the oversight of the sector.
The review led by Sir Jon Cunliffe, a former deputy governor of the Bank of England, was commissioned by environment secretary Steve Reed in the wake of public anger about pollution, rising bills and executive pay.
Cunliffe’s main recommendation is for a new water regulator in England to replace Ofwat and the Drinking Water Inspectorate and to assume the water environment related functions of the Environment Agency and Natural England.
In Wales, Ofwat’s economic responsibilities should be integrated into Natural Resources Wales, an existing body, Cunliffe said.
Reed is making a speech later on Monday in which he is expected to launch a formal consultation into the regulatory overhaul.
On Friday, the Environment Agency revealed that the number of serious pollution incidents by water companies in England rose 60 per cent last year on the previous year.
The Cunliffe report, released on Monday, has 88 recommendations and runs to 465 pages. The commission’s mandate did not extend to nationalisation. It said that climate change, population growth and economic development will put “huge pressure” on water systems in the coming decades.
“The current regulatory landscape is fragmented and overlapping and fully joined-up regulation is essential for the system to meet the demands of the future and ensure that private water companies act in the public as well as the private interest,” it said.
“A powerful, single regulator for water would simplify the system, reduce duplication, close regulatory gaps and ensure a much stronger ‘whole-firm’ view of each company.”
The report argued that the new body would also improve investor confidence through a more stable regulatory regime.
The largest company in the sector, Thames Water, has been teetering on the edge of financial collapse because of its huge debt pile.
The report recommended new powers for the regulator to block changes in water company ownership, for example where investors are not seen to be prioritising the long-term interests of customers.
It suggested the addition of “public benefit clauses” to water company licences. It said the regulator should be able to set “minimum capital” requirements so that water companies are less reliant on debt and more financially resilient.
The report also suggested that a formal turnaround regime should be established for the regulator in England and Wales to support the recovery of poorly performing companies. This would allow these struggling companies so-called “regulatory forbearance” to give them space to recover.
Cunliffe has called for ministers to transfer planning responsibilities from existing regulators to nine new regional water authorities.
Under the proposals the Consumer Council for Water, the consumer watchdog, will be upgraded into an “Ombudsman for Water” with stronger powers.
The report recommended a “national social tariff” to help low-income customers who need support to pay their bills. This would replace the current patchwork of support, which varies from one water company to another.
Cunliffe conceded in a BBC interview that bills were likely to keep rising faster than inflation. And he said he would not support caps on executive salaries in the sector given the need for water companies to attract the “best people”.
Water UK, an industry lobby group, said: “Everyone agrees the system has not been working. Today is a major moment and this fundamental change has been long overdue.”
- Ryanair (RY4C TH) +2.9%
- Ryanair Profit More Than Doubles; Sees Strong Summer Travel Flow
- Covivio (F5D TH) +2.4%
- Covivio Boosts FY Adjusted EPRA Profit Forecast
- Stellantis (8TI TH) +2.4%
- Stellantis scraps hydrogen van plan for Poland owing to high costs and weak demand
- Orion (OFK TH) +2.2%
- EasyJet (EJT1 TH) +2.1%
- Ryanair Profit More Than Doubles; Sees Strong Summer Travel Flow
- Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.9%
- Boliden (BWJ TH) +1.5%
- Boliden Raised to Buy at Berenberg
- Galp (GZ5 TH) +1.3%
- GALP 2Q ADJ NET EU373M, EST. EU211.6M
- Renault (RNL TH) +1.2%
- Ferrari (2FE TH) -0.9%
- Thales (CSF TH) -0.9%
- AXA (AXA TH) -0.9%
- AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -1%
- Bayer (BAYN TH) -1.1%
- Repsol (REP TH) -1.4%
- Orange (FTE TH) -1.7%
- Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.7%
- Vestas (VWSB TH) -2.1%
- Beazley (2D7 TH) -3.4%
The yen recouped some of last week’s losses as investors weighed the extent of the defeat suffered by Japan’s ruling coalition in the weekend’s upper-house election. Asian shares dropped for the first time in three days. Japan’s currency strengthened as much as 0.7% against the dollar, before paring gains. The yen had dropped for two weeks and bond yields spiked ahead of the vote on concern a poor showing by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba would open the door to more spending and tax cuts. While the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its partner lost their majority in the chamber, their final tally may be enough to keep Ishiba in the job. Elsewhere, shares in Hong Kong edged up while the regional MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.1%. US equity-index futures edged up 0.1%. Oil held its decline while a gauge of the dollar was flat. Japan’s markets are shut for a holiday Monday, which means there is no trading of local stocks, or cash Treasuries in Asian hours. Japanese stock futures edged lower. David Chao of Invesco says the results of Japan’s upper-house election “were largely expected by the markets.” Ishiba said he intends to stay on despite the defeat. Traders are focused on how the political uncertainty may play out as this is the first time since 1955 that a leader from the storied Japanese party will govern the country without a majority in at least one of the legislative bodies. The election outcome dents Japan’s appeal to global investors, at least in the short term, said Dilin Wu, a research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump pushed back on a report that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advised that markets would react badly if he fired Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell’s removal as Fed Chair remains unlikely, and even in such a scenario, it is hard to see the other governors voting for cuts if the economic backdrop didn’t warrant them, Barclays strategists including Themistoklis Fiotakis wrote in a note to clients. On tariffs, European Union envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formulate a plan for measures to respond to a possible no-deal scenario with Trump, whose tariff negotiating position is seen to have stiffened ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline. Trump also said he’s nearing an announcement on a couple of “big” trade deals. Also, China boosted shipments of rare earth magnets in June — including to the US — after a global supply squeeze that threatened factory closures and inflamed trade tensions.
Nikkei Closed Hang Seng +0.35% CSI +0.52% Shanghai +0.62% Shenzen +0.83%
Eur$ 1.1630 CNH 7.1821 CNY 7.1791 JPY 148.44 GBP 1.3418 CHF 0.8014 RUB 78.5873 TRY 40.4001 WTI$ 67.50 +0.24% Gold 3,359 +0.27% BTC 118,413 +0.23% ETH 3,65 +0.60%
S&P +0.12% Nasdaq +0.20% EuroStoxx -0.32% FTSE -0.05% Dax -0.30% SMI -0.23%
Macro :
- German Company Initiative Pledges €631B in Investments by 2028
- EU to Prepare Retaliation Plan as US Trade Stance Hardens
- Bonds Will Suffer Most From a Powell Exit: Markets Pulse Results
- Bonds Will Suffer Most From a Powell Exit: Markets Pulse Results
- Newsom Proposes to Ease Permits for Oil Drilling in California
- Hedge Funds Reap Windfall as $10 Billion Hess Deal Bet Pays Off
- Hedge Funds Reap Windfall as $10 Billion Hess Deal Bet Pays Off
- Trump Pushes for 15%-20% Minimum Tariff on All EU Goods: FT
- Goldman’s Bell Says European Profit Misses See Big Punishment
- India Allows Jane Street to Restart Trading: Business Standard
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- ALK US : Alaska Airlines Asks to Ground Its Fleet, F.A.A. Says
- AA US : Alcoa Pauses Canada Growth Projects Under Trump Aluminum Tariffs
- ALV GY : Ambani’s Jio Agrees to Reinsurance Venture With Allianz in India
- ALV GY : Ambani’s Jio Agrees to Reinsurance Venture With Allianz in India
- AGFX LN : Argentex Says Intends to Name Administrators
- ATO FP : Atos Liquidity Falls in First Half, Remains Above Required Levels
- BAS GY : BASF Set to Take Next-Round Bids for Coatings Arm in August
- BNED US : Barnes & Noble Education Delays 10-K on Digital Sales Probe --> -15% in After Hours after -3.45% in Official Session
- BEAN SW : Belimo 1H Sales Beat Estimates (1)
- BN CN : Brookfield to Invest up to $1b, Boost Isagen Stake to 38%
- CNR CN: Canadian Rails Slip Following Reports of US Rail Consolidation
- CA FP : Carrefour Said to Tap Rothschild for Potential Italy Unit Sale
- COV FP : Covivio Boosts FY Adjusted EPRA Profit Forecast
- CRC US : Newsom Proposes to Ease Permits for Oil Drilling in California --> +7%
- DTG GY : Daimler Truck mulls China production exit as it faces ‘crazy’ down cycle
- DHER GY : Prosus Offers to Sell Down Delivery Hero Stake to Appease EU
- EBUS NA : Ebusco to Postpone Publication of 1H Results
- EMBR33 BZ : Embraer Warns Tariffs May Add to Plane Costs for US Carriers: FT
- GALP PL :
- HUM US : Humana Shares Drop as Medicare Lawsuit Is Dismissed
- IBE SM : Ambev Buys Stakes in Neoenergia’s Wind Units
- IDEX NO : IDEX Biometrics Offers 9.09m Shares at NOK3.30/Share
- ITP FP : Interparfums SA Unveils Its Own Perfume Brand: Solférino Paris - WWD
- IVZ US : Invesco Soars, Topping S&P 500, With Plans for QQQ: Street Wrap
- 600276 CH : Jiangsu Hengrui Gets FDA Orphan Status for Trastuzumab-rezetecan
- KLG US : Froot Loops, Apple Jacks to Cut Synthetic Dyes by 2027
- KNEBV FH : Finnish Elevator Giant Kone Is Promoting Digital Manufacturing Upgrades in China
- LSEG LN : London Stock Exchange Group Weighs 24-Hour Trading, FT Reports
- MC FP : Flexjet Raises $800m in Funding Round Led by L Catterton: FT
- MC FP : Louis Vuitton Data Leak Affects 419,000 HK Clients: Ming Pao
- MSFT US : Global Hack on Microsoft Product Hits U.S., State Agencies, Researchers Say
- OPAP GA : Watch Opap After Company Buys Remaining 15.5% stake in Stoiximan
- OPEN US : Opendoor’s 175% Surge Puts It on Pace for Its Best Week Ever
- PARA US : Paramount Suitor Meets With FCC Chairman, Seeking OK for Deal
- PRX NA : Prosus Offers to Sell Down Delivery Hero Stake to Appease EU
- ROG SW : Genentech’s Bid to Expand Columvi in Lymphoma Rejected by FDA
- ROG SW : Roche Astegolimab Phase 3 COPD Study Misses Primary Endpoint
- RYA ID : Ryanair 1Q Profit After Tax Beats Estimates
- SRPT US : Sarepta to Continue Shipping Elevidys to Ambulant Population, FDA Requests Sarepta Therapeutics Suspend Elevidys Distribution
- SDRL US : Seadrill Says UK High Court Issued Judgment Against It
- TSLA US : Raj Jegannathan Running Tesla’s Sales Team: Reuters
- TSLA US : Musk Says xAI Will Make Kid-Friendly App Called Baby Grok
- TTE FP : Mozambique Nears Deal to Revive $20 Billion Total Gas Project
- Trafigura : Ex-JPMorgan Metals Trader ‘Disco’ Is Joining Trafigura
- UBER US : Uber Launches WeChat Mini-Program App for Chinese Users Abroad
- VFS US : Vietnamese EV Co VinFast Gets Export Orders From India Plant: BS
- YAR NO : Nutrien, Mosaic Rise as BHP Canadian Potash Mine Delayed
>>> Up
* ABB Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 62 Swiss francs
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 170 kronor
* Autoliv GDRs Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 1,220 kronor
* Boliden Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* doValue Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 2.70 euros
* Epiroc Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Loihde Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 11.90 euros
* Rocket Lab PT Raised to $55 from $40 at CFRA
* Rocket Lab PT Raised to $55 from $40 at CFRA
* Schindler Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Wartsila Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 22 euros
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Aker BP Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Ashtead Technology PT Cut to 560 pence from 780 pence at RBC
* ASML Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 700 euros
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 10 euros
* Engcon Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Saab Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 550 kronor
* Sarepta Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $10
* Sarepta Cut to Market Perform at Leerink; PT $10
* Sarepta Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT $9
* Sarepta Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $15
* Talenom Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4.20 euros
* Tokmanni Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 10.40 euros
>>> Initiation
* Petrobras ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $16
>>> Initiation
* Petrobras ADRs Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $16
* So-Young ADRs Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $10.10
* Tenaris Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT 21 euros
* Vallourec Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT 22.60 euros
>>> Call
* ABB’s Outlook Supports Further Re-Rating, Citi Raises to Buy
>>> Call
* ABB’s Outlook Supports Further Re-Rating, Citi Raises to Buy
DAX:
- Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +1.4%
- BMW (BMW TH) -0.6%
- Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) -0.6%
- Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -0.7%
- Commerzbank (CBK TH) -0.7%
- Bayer (BAYN TH) -1%
MDAX:
- Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) +1.3%
- Fuchs (FPE3 TH) +0.6%
- AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -0.7%
- Aixtron (AIXA TH) -0.9%
- Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1.1%
- Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.3%
- Nordex (NDX1 TH) -1.3%
SDAX:
- Stratec (SBS TH) +1.9%
- Cancom (COK TH) +1.5%
- Suedzucker (SZU TH) +1.4%
- SGL (SGL TH) -1.3%
- Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1.3%
- SFC Energy (F3C TH) -1.3%
- Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) -1.5%
- Schott Pharma AG & Co KGaA (1SXP TH) -1.8%
US retail sales and consumer health
At first glance, the latest US retail sales and consumer sentiment numbers reaffirm what we’ve seen over the past few months: the US consumer remains resilient, despite concerns over tariffs. Retail sales in June reversed a two-month downturn, driven by strength in motor vehicle and restaurant spending, according to preliminary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index also inched up in July.
But a closer look at the numbers shows consumers may be starting to strain from tariff pressures. Sales of furniture, as well as electronics and appliances — two import-dependent categories that saw price increases in the June CPI report — noticeably declined. Furniture retail sales were down 6.2 per cent from May, while electronics and appliances slumped more than 3 per cent.
A broader view of spending trends gives more reason for concern. The 12-month rolling correlation between the monthly changes in core CPI and month-over-month fluctuations in retail sales — how price changes relate to spending — has been negative throughout the year. In short, consumers are starting to pull back as prices rise. That marks a big shift from prior years. In 2022 and 2023, the correlation was positive, even as prices rose at a much faster rate.
This suggests that the mighty US consumer has, at long last, run out of steam — or has been increasingly price sensitive for some time now. Another reason why the headline retail sales figure may not be as robust as it seems is that rising prices could be inflating the numbers, as Michael Pearce at Oxford Economics explains:
Retail sales rose faster than expected in June, but with some of that strength reflecting tariff-driven price increases, our estimate is that inflation-adjusted consumer spending was unchanged in June. We expect real consumption growth slowed below 1 per cent annualised Q2, and weaker gains in real disposable incomes will mean subdued growth persists in Q3.
Granted, retail sales have always been reported in nominal dollar terms. But now that there are signs that American consumers aren’t tolerating inflation, the weakness behind the headline figure sticks out. Consumers aren’t as strong as they appear.
‘The beauty of hedge funds’
Jagdeep Singh Bachher, chief investment officer of UC Investments, one of the largest institutional investors in the US, has only one regret: “it’s that I’m not a hedge fund manager”.
His thinking? “Hedge funds are a fantastic business if you’re on Wall Street, and you can charge a great fee and then you can afford to buy all the art and the private jets and the amazing houses in the world,” he said.
This was part of a scathing rebuke against the $4.7tn industry that he delivered last week as the $190bn manager of the University of California’s endowment and pension approved a plan to reallocate its 10 per cent hedge fund portfolio to public equities, report my colleagues Sun Yu and Amelia Pollard.
Bachher used the opportunity to lambast the industry for not delivering for clients and for failing to provide adequate risk protection.
He said that UC Investment’s hedge fund positions had undermined its overall performance by introducing risks during market upheavals in 1999, 2008 and 2020. “In each of those three scenarios, hedge funds didn’t hedge us,” he added. “They exposed us to the opposite kind of risk, which actually meant they hurt us.”
The move underscores concerns among asset allocators about hedge fund investments that come with unstable returns, high fees and long lockups.
Bachher said if the endowment’s hedge fund portfolio had instead been allocated to a combination of stocks and bonds over the past 20 years, it would have avoided “all the drama and the illiquidity and all the high fees” and still had comparable returns.
He said that UC Investments decided to unwind its hedge fund portfolio in 2020 when the endowment adjusted its allocation target. The process, which “typically takes” 90 days, ended up lasting five years because of “the beauty of hedge funds”.
Needless to say, the course of true hedge fund riches never did run smooth. Just ask Bobby Jain. The former co-chief investment officer at Millennium Management tried to pull off the world’s largest hedge fund launch last year. Jain Global had to settle for the largest launch since 2018 with $5.3bn in commitments from investors, after falling short of the initial fundraising target of $8bn-$10bn.