>>> Nucor sees Q1 adjusted EPS well below consensus; decrease stems largely from

Nucor sees Q1 adjusted EPS well below consensus; decrease stems largely from lower average selling prices and lower margins (129.50 -1.55)
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of $0.50-0.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.06 FactSet Consensus.
  • Co added, "We expect earnings in the steel mills segment in the first quarter of 2025 to be in line with the fourth quarter of 2024. We expect earnings in the steel products segment to decrease in the first quarter of 2025 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 due primarily to lower average selling prices. The earnings of the raw materials segment are expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2025 as compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 due to lower margins at our DRI facilities. We expect higher corporate, administrative and tax impacts in the first quarter of 2025 than recognized in the fourth quarter of 2024."

>>> U.S. Steel issues downside Q1 EPS guidance; Tubular segment continues to fac

U.S. Steel issues downside Q1 EPS guidance; Tubular segment continues to face pressure from lagged impacts of a weak pricing environment (41.06 -0.56)
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q1 (Mar), sees EPS of (0.53)-($0.49), excluding non-recurring items, vs. ($0.32) FactSet Consensus. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be approximately $125 million.
    • The Flat-Rolled segment's adjusted EBITDA is expected to be lower than the fourth quarter primarily driven by typical seasonal logistics constraints in the mining sector, which will unwind in the second quarter. We anticipate that higher average selling prices and increased volumes will partially offset this mining impact.
    • The Mini Mill segment's adjusted EBITDA is expected to be higher than the fourth quarter due to an increase in shipments. For the first quarter, we expect approximately $50 million in ramp-related impact from BR2. These costs are included in our first quarter adjusted EBITDA guidance for the Mini Mill segment.
    • The European segment's adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve compared to the fourth quarter, largely due to an increase in shipments, volume efficiencies and favorable raw material pricing, yet the sector will continue to face pressures from a challenging demand environment in Europe.
    • The Tubular segment's adjusted EBITDA is expected to be higher than the fourth quarter due to an increase in prime shipments and higher average selling prices.
  • "Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $125 million is in line with our prior first quarter outlook. The North American Flat-Rolled segment's commercial strategy, combined with a strong emphasis on operational efficiencies and cost management, continues to drive strength within the segment. Our Mini Mill segment should see a sequential improvement based on increasing volumes from both Big River Steel (BRS) and Big River 2 (BR2). In Europe, the pricing environment has slightly improved, however demand remains subdued. We continue to manage our production levels in line with our customers' demand and our planned maintenance schedules. The Tubular segment continues to face pressure from the lagged impacts of a weak pricing environment, however, we remain optimistic for pricing improvements moving forward."

>>> NIKE beats by $0.24, beats on revs, gross margin decreased 330 bps to 41.5%;

NIKE beats by $0.24, beats on revs, gross margin decreased 330 bps to 41.5%; Company is expected to issue Q4 guidance on the earnings call at 4:00 p.m. ET (71.80 -1.19)
  • Reports Q3 (Feb) earnings of $0.54 per share, $0.24 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.30; revenues fell 9.1% year/year to $11.27 bln vs the $11.02 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • NIKE Direct revenues were $4.7 billion, down 12 percent on a reported basis and down 10 percent on a currency-neutral basis.
  • Wholesale revenues were $6.2 billion, down 7 percent on a reported basis and down 4 percent on a currency-neutral basis.
  • Gross margin decreased 330 basis points to 41.5 percent.
  • Inventories for NIKE, Inc. were $7.5 billion, down 2 percent compared to the prior year, reflecting product mix shifts, partially offset by an increase in units.
  • North America revenue -4% to $4.86 bln.
  • Greater China revenue -15% on CC basis to $1.73 bln.
  • "The progress we made against the 'Win Now' strategic priorities we committed to 90 days ago reinforces my confidence that we are on the right path," said Elliott Hill, President and CEO, NIKE, Inc. "What's encouraging is NIKE made an impact this quarter leading with sport -- through athlete storytelling, performance products and big sport moments."

>>> US Close Dow -0.03% S&P -0.22% Nasdaq -0.33% Russell -0.65%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The rally that followed yesterday's FOMC news did not persist today. There was an attempt at follow through, but that attempt ultimately petered out along with the mega-cap stocks as investors remained pre-occupied with questions -- and no clear answers -- about the economic outlook.

There was some good economic news today, however. Existing home sales showed some surprising strength in February as buyers responded to an increase in inventory. It was a good sign along with no real change in weekly initial jobless claims, which continue to run at levels consistent with a solid labor market.

Those reports corroborated Fed Chair Powell's view from yesterday that the "hard data," as opposed to soft survey data, is still pretty solid in terms of what it is conveying about economic activity. That point notwithstanding, the specter of reciprocal tariffs being announced on April 2, and a bewildering forecast from the Fed that calls for lower growth and higher inflation in 2025 than previously expected, seemingly curtailed the market's interest in following through on yesterday's advance.

Today, overall, didn't feature much conviction on either side of the tape. There were four S&P 500 sectors that finished higher, none more than 0.4%, and seven S&P 500 sectors that finished lower, none more than 0.6%. The biggest gainers were the energy and utilities sectors, and the biggest loser was the materials sector.

The information technology sector, which is the market's most heavily-weighted sector, ended the day down 0.5%. It was a relative laggard throughout the session due in large part to weakness in Accenture (ACN 300.76-23.71, -7.3%) following its earnings report, weakness in Apple (AAPL 214.10, -1.14, -0.5%) as reports suggested the company has shaken up its AI leadership ranks, and weakness in the semiconductor stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down 0.7%. It would have been worse if not for the outperformance of NVIDIA (NVDA 118.53, +1.01, +0.9%).

The Treasury market for its part also saw some vacillation. Earlier, the 10-yr note yield dropped to 4.17% from yesterday's settlement level of 4.26%, but it crept back up to 4.25% before settling at 4.23%. Treasuries, like the other capital markets, digested a slate of central bank news on the other side of the

FOMC decision that included the following:
  • The People's Bank of China left its 1-yr and 5-yr loan prime rates unchanged
  • The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 0.25%
  • Sweden's Riksbank left it policy rate unchanged at 2.25%
  • Brazil raised its policy rate by 100 bps to 14.25%
  • The Bank of England left its policy rate unchanged at 4.50%
  • ECB President Lagarde suggested the 25% tariff on imports imposed by the U.S. could subtract approximately 0.3 percentage points from euro area growth in the first year.

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 15 increased by 2,000 to 223,000 (consensus 220,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 8 increased by 33,000 to 1.892 million.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that this period covers the week in which the survey for the employment report is conducted, so the low level of initial jobless claims will lead economists to project another relatively solid increase in nonfarm payrolls.
  • The Q4 Current Account balance showed a narrowing in the deficit to $303.9 billion (consensus -$334.0 billion) from an upwardly revised $310.3 billion (from -$310.9 billion).
  • The March Philadelphia Fed Index dipped to 12.5 (Briefing.com consensus 10.0) from 18.1 in February. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 0.0, so this report indicates that business activity in the Philadelphia fed region expanded in March, but at a slower pace than the prior month.
  • Existing home sales increased 4.2% month-over-month in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million ( consensus 3.95 million) from an upwardly revised 4.09 million (from 4.08 million) in January. Sales were down 1.2% from the same period a year ago.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that existing home sales actually increased, as the consensus estimate called for a 3.2% month-over-month decline. The surprising strength suggests some unleashing of pent-up demand with more inventory on the market and prospective buyers adjusting to the higher level of mortgage rates.
  • February Leading Indicators declined 0.3% ( consensus -0.2%) following an upwardly revised 0.2% decline (from -0.3%) in January.

There is no U.S. economic data of note on Friday.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of March 2025

>>> Up
* Bunzl Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 3,407.90 pence
* Cava Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $110
* Freeport Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $52
* Lloyds Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 85 pence
* Supermarket Income Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 65 pence
* Supermarket Income Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 85 pence

>>> Down
* Assystem Cut to Neutral at Stifel; PT 38 euros
* BMW Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 80 euros
* Brembo Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 10 euros
* De Nora Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 9.10 euros
* Lundin Gold Cut to Neutral at CIBC; PT C$44
* Merck & Co PT Cut to $110 from $125 at Argus
* Mondi Cut to Underweight at ABSA Securities; PT 1,325.03 pence
* Puma Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Royal Caribbean Raised to Buy at CFRA; PT $297
* Sunrise Communications Cut to Neutral at Redburn

>>> Initiation
* Abivax ADRs Assumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $12
* BioVersys Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 70 Swiss francs
* International Paper Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $59
* Wacker Chemie Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 104 euros

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 20th of March 2025

Asian stocks advanced following a rally on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve signaled it still sees room to cut interest rates later this year because any increase in inflation due to tariffs will be brief. MSCI’s regional stock benchmark climbed to its highest since early November as equities in Taiwan, Australia and South Korea all rallied. US equity futures edged higher after the S&P 500 posted its biggest advance on a Federal Reserve policy-decision day since July. Japanese markets are shut for a holiday. Treasury futures edged higher, extending gains from Wednesday, while cash Treasuries are shut in Asia due to the holiday in Japan. Australia’s dollar weakened after a report showed employment in the nation fell by 52,800 last month, compared with a forecast increase of 30,000. Copper climbed above $10,000 a ton amid the threat of higher tariffs.  “The Fed’s commentary will feed into dollar weakness going ahead and ease the pressure on capital outflows from Asian markets,” said Rajat Agarwal, an Asia strategist at Societe Generale SA. As US financial conditions ease on rate-cut bets and slower balance sheet runoff, it may eventually boost inflows into Asian and emerging markets stocks, he said. Chinese shares bucked the positive trend, with the mainland benchmark CSI 300 Index falling for the first time in three days. Technology companies were among the biggest losers following their recent rally. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slipped as much as 1.7%. Tencent Holdings Ltd. shares dropped even after the firm on Wednesday posted its fastest pace of revenue growth since 2023. In South Korea, Samsung Electronics Co. rose after the company pledged to strengthen its position in the high-bandwidth memory chip market in response to shareholder criticism. The Fed kept its benchmark on hold Wednesday as economists expected, and Chair Jerome Powell was measured in his assessment of how the President Donald Trump’s actions might shape the economy. Powell cited the potential for the impact of tariffs on inflation to be “transitory.” US stocks rallied despite changes to Fed forecasts that could be viewed as bearish for equities, among them a tamping down of growth expectations in 2025 and a higher estimate of inflation. 
Powell’s calibrated tone on recession risk – stating it was “not high” – soothed nerves among stock investors. The central bank’s move to trim growth assessments also added fuel to the bond rally, with traders and the Fed now aligned on the rate-cut outlook this year.  “Powell came in and gave a pretty dovish performance in the sense of, ‘We got this, we’re in a good place, we can afford to wait, we’ll see how it goes, we’re gonna get the job done’,” Bill Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, said on Bloomberg Television. Chinese banks held their benchmark lending rates for a fifth straight month in the absence of more monetary easing. Later Thursday, the Bank of England is forecast to leave interest rates unchanged, while the Swiss National Bank is tipped to cut them by 25 basis points, according to consensus forecasts. Oil prices inched higher after gaining on Wednesday following a US government report that allayed concerns about near-term demand destruction. Gold was little changed. Copper marched past the key threshold of $10,000 a ton after weeks of global trade dislocation triggered by Trump’s push for tariffs on the crucial industrial metal. US After Hours FIVE +9.8% higher on earnings; PRA +51.2% on deal to be acquired; FOUR +6.4% as it expands a partnership.

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng -1.84% CSI -0.84% Shanghai -0.43% Shenzen -0.33%

Eur$ 1.0903 CNH 7.2384 CNY 7.2360 JPY 148.40 GBP 1.3002 CHF 0.8769 RUB 84.0338 TRY 37.959 WTI$ 67.52 +0.54% Gold 3,052 +0.15% BTC 85,675 ETH 2,021 -0.67%

S&P +0.42% Nasdaq +0.58% EuroStoxx -0.25% FTSE -0.18% Dax -0.24% SMI -0.32%

Macro :
- Abu Dhabi Forms $25 Billion US Energy Venture to Power AI
- Fed Holds Rates Steady, Sees Slower Growth and Higher Inflation

Keep an eye on :
- BAB LN : Warship Maker Babcock to Join FTSE 100 After Defense Rally
- BECN US : QXO Strikes Deal for Beacon Roofing, Executives Say -- WSJ
- BA US : NASA Eyes Plan to Get Boeing Back on Track as SpaceX Alternative
- BN CN : Brookfield Said to Lead Race for $10 Billion Colonial Pipeline
- 1211 HK : EU Probes BYD Plant in Hungary Over Chinese Subsidies: FT
- CAST SS : Castellum to Own 34% of Shares in Entra After Offer Period
- CVC NA : CVC Is Said to Be Interested in Buying Mubadala-Backed Fortress
- ENTRA NO : Castellum to Own 34% of Shares in Entra After Offer Period
- DEZ GY : Deutz FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates, Deutz Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebit Margin 5% to 6%
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Loses Trademark After Russian Court Verdict: Kommersant
- 175 HK : Geely Auto FY Net Income Beats Estimates
- HL/ LN : Warship Maker Babcock to Join FTSE 100, Hargreaves to Exit
- HLAG GY : Hapag-Lloyd Sees 2025 Ebitda $2.5B to $4.0B, Est. $3.25B
- HCO FP : signature d'un protocole de cession de High Connexion
- IBE SM : Iberdrola chair warns of surge in Spanish power prices if country shuts nuclear plants
- IBAB BB : Ion Beam FY Revenue Beats Estimates
- JMT PL : Jeronimo Martins 4Q Net Income Falls 20% on Weaker Demand
- KEMIRA FH : Kemira Makes Multi-Million Euro Investment at Wellgrow Thailand
- LXS GY : Lanxess 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- META US : Meta to Roll Out Meta AI Across 41 European Countries This Week
- NM GY : Nemetschek FY Net Income Meets Estimates, Nemetschek Sees 2025 Ebitda Margin About 31%, Est. 31.3%
- NEXI IM : TPG Offers About €850m for Nexi Digital Bank Unit: Corriere
- 7201 JP : Nissan North America to Cut 20% of Top Management Roles
- NSKOG NO : Norske Skog Says Golbey to Start Containerboard Output in April
- NVDA US : Nvidia Will Spend Hundreds of Billions on Chips Made in US: FT
- PSM GY : ProSieben to Sign Deal to Sell Verivox on Friday: Messaggero
- PRU LN : Prudential FY New Business Profit Misses Estimates
- RWE GY : RWE Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebitda EU4.55B to EU5.15B, Est. EU4.96B
- SFQ GY : SAF-Holland SE Sees 2025 Adj Ebit Margin 9% to 10%, Est. 9.6%
- SAF FP : Safran Offers Sale of Unit for EU Approval of Collins Deal: Rtrs
- SAN FP : Sanofi to Acquire Dren Bio’s Bispecific MCE for $600M Upfront
- SBO AV : Schoeller-Bleckmann FY Net Income Misses Estimates
- SEM AV : Semperit FY Revenue Misses Estimates
- SGL GY : SGL 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates, SGL 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- SHC LN : Shaftesbury Capital in Talks with NBIM on Covent Garden Deal
- SW FP : Sodexo Cuts FY Organic Revenue Forecast
- 9984 JP : SoftBank Seals $6.5 Billion Deal for Chip Designer Ampere
- STLA US : Stellantis Says Auto Industry Doesn’t Need Defense to Survive
- STMPA FP : STMicro Vice Chairman Maurizio Tamagnini Resigns From Board
- MSTR US : Strategy Bitcoin Gambit Takes New Form With New Deal: ECM Watch
- SQN SW : Swissquote 2025 Pretax Profit Forecast Misses Estimates
- 700 HK : Tencent Falls as AI Capex Misses Some Expectations: Street Wrap
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies Eyes Brazil Green Hydrogen for European Refineries
- VLA FP : Valneva FY Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- VEI NO : Veidekke Sees ‘Clear Recovery’ in Scandinavia Building in 2026

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Lloyds (LLD TH) +3.4%
    • Lloyds Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 85 pence
  • NatWest (RYSD TH) +2.3%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +2.2%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +2.1%
  • Verbund (OEWA TH) +1.7%
  • Prudential (PRU TH) +1.3%
  • RWE (RWE TH) +1.2%
    • RWE Shaves €10 Billion Off Investment Plan Amid Global Risks
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +1%
    • Nemetschek FY Net Income Meets Estimates
  • Ferrari (2FE TH) -1%
  • Puma (PUM TH) -1%
    • PUMSY: Puma reinstated with a Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
  • Thales (CSF TH) -1%
  • Bawag (0B2 TH) -1.2%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -1.4%
    • Lanxess 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates (1)
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -3.9%
    • HSTECH Index down 3%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • RWE (RWE TH) +1.7%
    • RWE Shaves €10 Billion Off Investment Plan Amid Global Risks
MDAX:
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +2.1%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) +1.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -1%
    • Lanxess 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates (1)
SDAX:
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +5.1%
    • Deutz Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebit Margin 5% to 6%
  • Mutares (MUX TH) +3.3%
  • Stabilus (STM TH) +1.7%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) +1.6%
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +1.5%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) -0.9%
    • SAF-Holland SE Sees 2025 Adj Ebit Margin 9% to 10%, Est. 9.6%
  • Vossloh (VOS TH) -1.5%