TheChek News Flow

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

BN 11/29 08:15 *S&P AFFIRMS CHINA RATINGS AT 'AA-/A-1+'; OUTLOOK STABLE

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

*S&P AFFIRMS CHINA RATINGS AT ’AA-/A-1+’; OUTLOOK STABLE 2013-11-29 08:15:35.727 GMT

See {NSN MX0MXH3PWT1C <GO>} for the Standard & Poor’s CreditWire press release.

See {PRCH CH Equity CN <GO>} for company news. See {^PRCH CH Equity CN <GO>} for company news.

-0- Nov/29/2013 08:15 GMT

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

SAP 2014, 2015 Forecast May Miss Consensus, Deutsche Bank Says 2013-11-29 07:55:13.616 GMT

By Claudia Rach Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- SAP’s 2014, 2015 sales, margin outlook have potential to undershoot consensus, Deutsche Bank says in note. * Investor feedback suggests some skepticism on co.’s current 2015 forecast of >EU20b rev., 35% margins * Says new guidance could imply rev. EU18b-EU19b; ~34% adj. margins, implying up to 8% downside risk to 2015 consensus EPS * Says accelerating cloud adoption impacts license growth * Rates stock hold; PT EU55 * NOTE: SAP debates whether to accelerate shift to cloud, co- CEO Snabe said Nov. 22 * NOTE: Stock down 1.5% YTD vs DAX up 23% vs SX8P up 26% * NOTE: 45 analyst ratings 71% buy, 22% hold, 7% sell; avg PT EU66: Bloomberg data

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

--Editor: Jurjen van de Pol

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Rach in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6219 or crach1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

* Accelerating cloud adoption impacts license growth, see 8% EPS CAGR Accelerating SaaS/cloud migration will in our view impact license growth (DBe 1-2% decline) in turn slowing 2013-15 revenue (+4%) and EPS CAGR's (8%) for SAP. Long-term higher vendor fragmentation suggests a risk of market share leakage in the transition to the cloud for SAP. Its 'hybrid' cloud/on-premise strategy seems sensible to mitigate this but we also expect more cloud M&A going forward. With 8% downside to 2015 EPS consensus, we would expect the recent performance 'catch up' to slow into Q114 and maintain HOLD.

* Assessing the SaaS/cloud impact – license growth assumptions lowered Accelerating SaaS/cloud adoption is a well-understood trend, but investor uncertainty as to how it impacts SAP’s longer-term growth & margin trajectory seems high. Our detailed analysis concludes that 1) The negative P&L mechanics of SaaS vs on-premise delivery will likely impact SAP’s license revenues (25% of group), which we expect to slightly decline from here (-1.6% 2014-15 CAGR). 2) We estimate gross NPV parity/‘cross-over’ of a SaaS/cloud vs on-premise customer in year 8, suggesting several years of potential P&L volatility. 3) The main long-term risk is that SAP cannot maintain its dominant on-premise market share in a more fragmented ERP SaaS/cloud environment. The company’s ‘hybrid’ strategy seems sensible to lower this risk but we would also expect further SaaS/cloud M&A going forward.

* Estimates lowered, 2014&15 guidance likely to undershoot consensus Our more cautious view on SAP’s license outlook leads us to nudge down 2014-15 EPS by 1 to 4%, implying a 2013-15 EPS CAGR of ~8%. We expect SAP’s 2014 & 2015 revenue and margin guidance to potentially undershoot consensus. For 2014 we model 6% SSRS revenue growth vs consensus of 10% putting DB 3% below consensus EPS. Investor feedback suggests some skepticism on the company’s current 2015 guidance of >E20bn revenues and 35% margins. We believe new guidance could imply a revenue range of E18 to E19bn (DBe E18.2bn, consensus E20bn) and ~34% adj. margins (DBe 34.3% cons 34.5%), implying up to 8% downside risk to 2015 consensus EPS.

* Target price maintained at E55, risks Our E55 target price is unchanged reflecting lowered forecasts offset by multiple/valuation rollover to 2014/15. Our target price is based on a blend of 1) a DCF of E56/share, 2) 14x 2015 P/E (E55/share) in line with expected P/E to EPS CAGR of global enterprise software peers, and 3) applying a 7.1x maintenance multiple, SAP’s 5-year historical average. Key risks include changes in macro/demand and/or market share, and value-destructive M&A.

Link to article : {http://reut.rs/198ERWx}

(Reuters) - A multi-billion dollar organization controlled by Iran's supreme leader shook up the management of its charity division, appointing as its new chief a man involved in the confiscation of thousands of properties from Iranian citizens.Aref Norozi was named director general of the Barakat Foundation, Iran's state news agency reported on Wednesday. The foundation is a unit of a massive business empire controlled by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that is known as Setad Ejraiye Farmane Hazrate Emam. The report by the Islamic Republic News Agency stated that Setad's president, Mohammad Mokhber, had ordered the appointment of Norozi, who once headed Setad's real-estate division and served on the boards of several Setad-linked companies. As a result of Norozi's professional experience, the report said, "It is expected that the Barakat Foundation's activities will be more extensive than before." Reuters this month published a three-part series entitled Assets of the Ayatollah (here) detailing how Setad has become one of the most powerful institutions in Iran through the systematic seizure and sale of thousands of properties belonging to ordinary Iranians. The series reported Norozi had stated at a press conference in 2008 that Setad's properties were then worth about $52 billion. Setad's total worth is difficult to pinpoint because of the secrecy of its accounts. But its holdings of real estate, corporate stakes in a variety of industries and other assets total about $95 billion, Reuters has calculated. Through Setad, Khamenei has at his disposal financial resources whose value rivals the holdings of the shah, the late Western-backed monarch who was overthrown in 1979. Setad also controls the Barakat Foundation, a charity focused on economic development projects in rural areas and that has stakes in the country's pharmaceutical industry. A Setad official said in April that through Barakat, Setad had spent more than $1.6 billion in the past five years on development projects. But Setad's claims about its charity spending are impossible to verify because its accounts are not publicly available. IRNA last week denounced the Reuters series as "disinformation" intended to undermine public trust in the Islamic Republic's institutions. A Reuters spokesperson said the news agency stood by the accuracy and fairness of its stories. IRNA said that in the past five years Barakat has been involved in numerous economic development projects, including building schools, roads, housing units and mosques, as well as providing water and electricity. According to IRNA, Barakat was created following an order Khamenei gave to the head of Setad. "Solving the problems of the deprived has been on my mind," IRNA quoted Iran's supreme leader as saying. "For example, solve the problems of 1,000 villages. It would be good to develop 1,000 places or to build 1,000 schools. Prepare this organisation for this task." A spokesman for Setad did not respond to a request for comment about Norozi's appointment.

- Media was exceptionally strong in 2013 (+20% vs market), driven by Europe. It should outperform again in 2014 returning to its 2008–12 drivers: gradual re-rating and above-average earnings growth driven by high margins, low capital intensity and proven ability to reshuffle asset mix.. - Three key themes to drive stock performance in 2014 : Firstly, increased selectivity in playing the European/US recovery. Secondly, greater multiples differentiation reflecting diverging long-term growth prospects. Lastly, the re-emergence of some out-of-fashion or less cyclical names. - We reduce exposure to broadcasters, favouring only higher-quality northern European names, ITV and ProSieben (upgraded). We downgrade RTL and TF1 to Neutral, now fairly valued. Our work shows that market hopes of a rapid ad recovery could prove void in France and Italy – M6 and Mediaset are downgraded to Underperform. - Top picks : Long: Publicis, Wolters Kluwer, ITV, Rightmove and JC Decaux. Avoid: Lagardère, Mediaset.

REco : *LAGARDERE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE *M6 CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE *MEDIASET CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE *PROSIEBENSAT.1 RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE *REED ELSEVIER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE *RTL GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE *UBM CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE *WOLTERS KLUWER RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE

New York hedge-fund manager Alphonse “Buddy” Fletcher is looking more and more like Bernie Madoff. Fletcher’s master hedge fund, Fletcher International, which filed for bankruptcy protection in June 2012, was a fraud with “many of the characteristics of a Ponzi scheme,” according to a bombshell report.

After a year-long investigation, trustee Richard J. Davis concluded this week in a nearly 300-page report that there were virtually no assets left to pay Fletcher’s creditors. By the date of its bankruptcy, Fletcher “held only one asset of undisputed value — Helix stock — worth less than $8 million,” Davis said in the report filed in federal bankruptcy court. Fletcher had valued the fund at $352 million. The alleged fraud was defined by “the extensive use of wildly inflated valuations, the existence of fictitious assets under management numbers, the improper payment of excessive fees” and “misuse of investor money.”

The Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission are also investigating Fletcher’s hedge fund, and earlier this year subpoenaed documents from the trustee. Davis said the “ultimate victims of this fraud” were four public employee pension funds that invested a combined $125 million since mid-2007. Some $8 million of the pension fund money was siphoned off to finance a movie being made by Fletcher’s brother Geoffrey. Another $1 million went to pay for legal expenses from Fletcher’s ongoing racial discrimination suit against Manhattan’s famed Dakota apartment building. The alleged fraud was, the report says, aided by hedge-fund administrator Citgo, which lent the Fletcher fund money to buy a fund Citgo wanted to dump, then introduced one of the pension funds to Fletcher; that money helped pay Citgo back. Fletcher, 48, could not be reached for comment.

Former SAC Capital Advisors tech analyst Jon Horvath testified he was afraid he would lose his job if he didn’t come up with illicit stock tips for his boss, Michael Steinberg. “I thought my job was in danger. I thought he would fire me,” Horvath, the government’s star witness in the insider-trading case against Steinberg, told a Manhattan federal jury. Horvath, testifying Wednesday on the fifth day of the trial, said he received an ultimatum from the top SAC money manager after Horvath’s tech recommendations for Steinberg lost money in 2007. “What I need you to do is to go out and get me edgy, proprietary information that we can use to make money in their stocks,” Horvath testified that Steinberg told him after a bad losing streak. Horvath said he thought Steinberg wanted him to cultivate sources of “material non-public information.” He said he soon began giving Steinberg insider tips on Dell that he received from Jesse Tortora, an analyst at another hedge fund and a member of what prosecutors call a “corrupt circle” of friends who shared illegal information. Both Tortora and Horvath pleaded guilty and have been cooperating with the prosecution in the case against Steinberg. In addition to Dell’s earnings before they were released publicly, Tortora also accurately predicted a restructuring that would save Dell billions of dollars and said the CFO would soon leave. Horvath said he emailed the details of Tortora’s tips to Steinberg, and uploaded them onto a SAC corporate server, called “Tamale,” an archival system for trade and data.

Up

*BNP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS *BSKYB RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE *EUROMONEY RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS *GALENICA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS *INTER RAO RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN *PUBLIC POWER CORP RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN *RENTOKIL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML *SERCO RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML *SOCIETE GENERALE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS *TAISEI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT AT CITI *TALKTALK RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE

Down

*ATLAS COPCO CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY *ENKA INSAAT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS *EXPERIAN CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *UPM CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS *VIG CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA *ZOOPLUS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK

PT Change

* CREDIT AGRICOLE PT INCREASED FROM 10.50 to 10.80 at UBS

Initiation

*ANTOFAGASTA RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN, PT 1,100P

Country Sector Stock Call

*CREDIT AGRICOLE ADDED TO UBS’S KEY CALL LIST (full not attached) ***** *SOCGEN REMOVED FROM UBS’S LEAST PREFERRED LIST *NETHERLANDS CUT TO AA+ FROM AAA; OUTLOOK STABLE, S&P SAYS *S&P RAISES CYPRUS RATINGS TO ’B-/B’; OUTLOOK STABLE *S&P: SPAIN (KINGDOM OF) TO BBB-/STABLE FROM BBB-/NEGATIVEt

US MArket were closed for Thanksgiving yesterday, half day today ( closing at 1pm E.T)...Asia weaker on very thin volume...weaker on thin volumes... Japan's key inflation figure increased at the fastest pace in five years and reinforcing the positive effects from Abenomics...JPY Declined...Japan Fin Min Aso: Japan economy not out of deflation yet...Kuroda said, Easing putting strong downward pressure on yields; Prepared to further ease policy if risks to economy threaten 2% inflation target...Nikkei -0.41%...Shamghai -0.05%...Spain Outlook, Cyprus Rating Raised by S&P; Netherlands Cut...Schaeuble: rules out tax hikes or cuts; coalition pact with SPD is a fair compromise...Frecnh better unemployement data...

Eur$ 1.3610 S&P Fut +0.20% European Fut. -0.10%

Keep an eye on :

- STS IM : Ansaldo Energia, the Italian manufacturer of power station turbines, will seek industrial partners to guide it to a listing starting 2014 - O2C GY : Cat Oil 3Q Net Almost Doubles; Raises 2013 Rev., Ebitda Targets - EDF FP : EDF Competes With GDF Suez to Win French Offshore Wind Projects - STR AV : Strabag 3Q Net Income Stagnates; FY Forecast Confirmed - SUR GY : Surteco 9M Sales, Net Fall 5%; Confirms 2013 Outlook - VED LN : Vedanta’s Agarwal Says He Regrets $8 Billion Aluminum Investment - VIE FP : Veolia Environnement Completes Purchase of 50% Proactiva Stake