>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of March 2025

>>> Up
* ING Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 22.60 euros
* QT Group Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 94 euros
* Rotork Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 385 pence
* Ryanair Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 25.50 euros

>>> Down
* Air France-KLM Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 8.50 euros
* BASF Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 45 euros
* BMW Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 73.50 euros
* EasyJet Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 600 pence
* Lockheed Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $480
* Prysmian Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 66.30 euros
* Skanska Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Sodexo Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 64 euros
* Sodexo Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 66 euros
* Victrex Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1,050 pence

>>> Initiation
* Clas Ohlson Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 270 kronor
* Hensoldt Rated New Hold at LBBW; PT 71 euros
* Royal Unibrew Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT 630 kroner

>>> Call
* JPMorgan Says No Respite For European Chemicals, Cuts 3 Ratings

>>> What to look at today - 27th of March 2025

Asian equities dropped after President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on US auto imports, prompting investors to pare bets on riskier investments due to concerns about growth in the world’s largest economy. Shares of automakers slid. A benchmark of regional shares fell while stocks in Hong Kong gained. Equity-index futures pointed to a steady open for US stocks while contracts for Europe indicated stocks may be under pressure. The Mexican peso slipped on the tariff announcement along with shares of automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp., General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. Trump floated more tariffs on the EU and Canada if they worked against the US. The quickly shifting stance on US trade sanctions on the nation’s allies and foes alike adds to already heightened market concerns as investors race to assess the impact on global trade and economic growth. Two months into Trump’s presidency, the mood in the market has turned wary as investors temper their bullish views and the Federal Reserve signals it’s in no rush to adjust its interest-rate policy. Trump signed an order to slap a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the US. His proclamation, released later Wednesday, specified automobile tariffs would be collected starting just after midnight, at 12:01 a.m. Washington time April 3. Reciprocal duties that are set to be announced next week will be “very lenient,” he said. China may also get a tariff reduction to secure a deal on the sale of ByteDance Ltd.’s social video platform TikTok to an American company, Trump added. The dollar fell against all Group-of-10 currencies as Trump downplayed reciprocal tariffs, while the yield on 10-year Treasuries edged lower in Asian trading, reversing moves in the prior session.  Trump “could be recognizing that his trade policies might be having a ricocheting effect on the US consumers and business owners,” said Fiona Lim, a senior strategist at Malayan Banking Bhd in Singapore. “That makes US dollar gains susceptible to reversal.” In a Truth Social post, Trump later wrote that he would place more tariffs on EU and Canada if they worked against the US. Meanwhile, profits at China’s industrial firms contracted at the start of 2025, flashing a worrying sign for the economy as higher US tariffs loom. India’s BSE Sensex advanced Thursday, its eighth gain in nine sessions. Eastspring Investments expects a stronger second half for the equity market in the country on fiscal support from the government and bets the central bank will cut interest rates. Worries over the economic effects of the global trade war are sapping liquidity in US stocks, creating a headache for institutional investors that may also boost volatility in broader markets. Liquidity in S&P 500 stock-index futures, as measured in the most-active contract, stands at a two-year low, data compiled by Deutsche Bank AG show. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President Alberto Musalem said it’s not clear the impact of tariffs will prove temporary, and cautioned that secondary effects could prompt officials to hold interest rates steady for longer. In commodities, oil held a gain after US crude inventories fell the most since December. Gold steadied near a record high. US after Hours Auto stocks lower as President Trump imposes 25% tariffs; WOOF +10.7%, CNXC +10.5%, SCS +10.3%, FUL +6.7% higher on earnings; VRNT -10.7%, JEF -4.7% lower on earnings

Nikkei -0.60% Hang Seng +0.87% CSI +0.36% Shanghai +0.20% Shenzen +0.00%

Eur$ 1.0780 CNH 7.2704 CNY 7.2637 JPY 150.43 GBP 1.2928 CHF 0.8832 RUB 83.9357 TRY 38.0010 WTI$ 69.54 -0.11% Gold 3,027 +0.32% BTC 87,410 +0.12% ETH 2,025 +0.69%

S&P +0.11% Nasdaq -0.06% EuroStoxx -0.59% FTSE -0.27% Dax -0.89% SMI -0.61%

Macro :
- US Approves Possible $1.96b Military Sale to Qatar
- Tether Said to Buy 30% Stake in Italian Media Company Be Water
- Automakers’ Shares Fall as Trump Announces 25% Car Import Tariff
- European companies rush to tap defence spending boom
- Hedge Fund Regal Among Stock Pickers Burned by Biotech’s Crash
- Japan to Take Necessary Steps on US Auto Tariffs, Engage with US

Keep an eye on :
- ADEN SW : Adecco to Launch a New Company, Backed by Salesforce
- ARBN SW : Arbonia Targets 2029 Ebitda Margin Between 14% to 15%
- ARCAD NA : Arcadis Gets Share of $1.5b Contract to Support US Air Force
- AAD GY : Amadeus Fire FY Operating Ebita EU55.5M Vs. EU70.4M Y/y
- AKE FP : Arkema Signs New Eight Year Biomethane Supply Pact With Engie
- ADSK US : Autodesk Says Open to Meet Starboard Nominees
- BAYN GY : Elliott, PE Groups Held Talks on Bayer Consumer Health Unit: FT
- BA US : Boeing-Lockheed’s Vulcan Approved for US Defense Launches
- BONAVA SS : Bonava Introduces Percentage of Completion Method; Keeps Targets
- BRNK GY : Branicks Group Repays €100M Promissory Note Loan
- BP/ LN : BP Weighs Stake Sales in Two Gulf of Mexico Projects: Reuters
- BRNK GY : Branicks Group Repays €100M Promissory Note Loan
- CAI AV : CA Immo FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- ALCAR FP : Carmat Gets Flexible Equity Financing Line for Max. 9M Shares
- CAVA US : Cava Group Set to Join S&P MidCap 400 on March 31
- EVD GY : CTS Eventim FY Normalized Ebitda Meets Estimates (1)
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung FY Profit After Tax Meets Estimates
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung 2025 Profit After Tax Forecast Misses Estimates
- EDP PL : EDP Adds Long-Term Power Sale Contracts, Helped by Data Centers
- EDR SM : Permira Offers 5.5% eDreams Odigeo Stake via Goldman: Terms
- ENGI FP : Arkema Signs New Eight Year Biomethane Supply Pact With Engie
- EXO NA : Exor FY Net Income EU14.67B Vs. EU4.19B Y/y
- HMB SS : H&M 1Q Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- IMPN SW : Implenia Wins Contracts Worth Over CHF150M in Total
- IFX GY : Infineon eyes chip manufacturing in India, plans to double workforce
- IOS GY : IONOS Group SE FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- JUN3 GY : Jungheinrich Sees 2025 Ebit Margin 7.8% to 8.6%, Est. 8.16%
- KEMIRA FH : Kemira, IFF Form JV to Produce Biobased Materials at Scale
- KTN GY : Kontron FY Dividend per Share EU0.6 Vs. EU0.50 Y/y
- NWG LN : Farage, Natwest Agree to Settle Debanking Dispute: Sky
- NESN SW : Buyout Firms Said to Circle Nestle’s €5 Billion Water Business
- PSM GY : MFE Makes Cash-and-Stock Bid to Boost ProSieben Stake: Snapshot
- PRY IM : Prysmian CEO Sees Capacity for Sizeable M&A Deals From 2027
- PUUILO FH : Puuilo 4Q EPS EU0.12
- QDT FP : Quadient FY Ebitda Meets Estimates
- RAA GY : Rational Sees 2025 Ebit Margin About 26%, Est. 26.6%
- G24 GY : Scout24 Proposes 2024 Dividend of EU1.32/Share
- SLIGR NA : Sligro FY Ebitda EU138M Vs. EU137M Y/y
- 9984 JP : OpenAI Close to Finalizing $40 Billion SoftBank-Led Funding
- S92 GY : SMA Solar FY Ebitda Loss EU16M Vs. Profit EU311M Y/y
- SMHN GY : SUSS MicroTec Sees 2025 Ebit Margin 15% to 17%
- SY1 GY : Symrise FY Dividend per Share Misses Estimates
- TTK GY : Takkt Sees '25 Adj. Ebitda Margin 6% to 8%, Sets New Strategy
- TRI FP : Trigano 2Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- X US : Nippon Steel Delays US Steel Deal Close Again, Now 2Q 2025
- VO CN : Valore Metals Corp to Buy South Atlantic Gold INC
- DG FP : Vinci Renews Multi-Year UK Highways Contract Worth €65M/Yr
- VOW GY : VW Is Said to Mull Options Including Listing for MAN Energy Unit
- VOS GY : Vossloh 2025 Ebit Forecast Misses Estimates
- WEW GY : Westwing Group Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebitda EU25M to EU35M

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • ING (INN1 TH) +1%
    • ING Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 22.60 euros
  • Frontline PLC (HF6 TH) -1.8%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -2%
  • Valeo (VSA2 TH) -2.2%
  • Volvo (VOL1 TH) -2.4%
  • Rational (RAA TH) -2.6%
    • Rational Sees 2025 Ebit Margin About 26%, Est. 26.6%
  • BMW (BMW TH) -2.6%
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -3.1%
  • Continental (CON TH) -3.4%
  • Porsche (P911 TH) -3.7%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -4.3%
    • Trump Hits Auto Imports With 25% Tariff Starting Next Week

FT : Apollo president says private credit is ‘not a bubble’

Apollo president says private credit is ‘not a bubble’
Economic slowdown will not trigger ‘massive losses’ in sector that has witnessed rapid growth, says Jim Zelter

Private credit is “not a bubble”, Apollo Global Management president Jim Zelter has said, adding that he did not think adverse economic conditions would trigger “massive losses” in a sector that has witnessed rapid growth in recent years.

Speaking at HSBC’s investment conference in Hong Kong on Thursday, Zelter was asked how private credit would perform in an economic downturn.

“The biggest question I get from everybody around the globe is, is private credit a bubble?” said Zelter. “And I would say it’s not a bubble, but it’s certainly been long in the tooth in the cycle.

“Bubble means there’s very much irrational actions, and while I think there are folks that are probably taking [a] more aggressive portfolio construction than I would take, I don’t think it’s a bubble where you’re going to find the massive losses that you saw in other bubbles since I’ve been around,” he added.

Apollo is dominant in private credit and has made a major push in recent years into extending credit not only to the mid-market groups that have traditionally tapped the market but also to some of the world’s largest companies.

Private credit groups — which raise funds from investors and make loans directly to businesses — have boomed as rising interest rates have led investors to plough larger sums into their funds. They are increasingly playing a role previously held by banks, which face tighter regulation.

The IMF said in its Global Financial Stability Report last year that private credit assets had grown to about $2.1tn, and while the lending could create economic benefits, “the sector has never experienced a severe economic downturn at its current size and scope”.

“Such an adverse scenario could see a delayed realisation of losses followed by a spike in defaults and large valuation markdowns,” the report said.

“If the asset class remains opaque and continues to grow exponentially under limited prudential oversight, the vulnerabilities of the private credit industry could become systemic.”

Zelter said Apollo defined private credit as “really anything that’s on a financial institution balance sheet” and added that most of it was investment-grade. He described private credit as “a $40 trillion ocean”.

Credit is “about a $600bn business” for Apollo, while private equity, which Zelter described as the group’s “historic expertise”, is “about a $100bn business”, he said.

At the HSBC event, Zelter also said there was a “tug of war” taking place in the global economy between “inflationary forces versus the deflationary forces of AI and technology”.

“It’s our view that the inflationary forces are going to be taking the headline over the next six to 12, 18 months before the real deflationary impact of AI comes into play,” he said.

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) -0.4%
    • Elliott, PE Groups Held Talks on Bayer Consumer Health Unit: FT
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -1.7%
  • BMW (BMW TH) -2%
    • Trump Hits Auto Imports With 25% Tariff Starting Next Week (3)
  • Continental (CON TH) -2.5%
  • Porsche (P911 TH) -3%
    • Trump Hits Auto Imports With 25% Tariff Starting Next Week (3)
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -3.2%
MDAX:
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +1.2%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -1.3%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) -1.8%
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) -2.6%
SDAX:
  • Deutsche Euroshop (DEQ TH) +4.2%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) +2.7%
    • SUSS MicroTec Sees 2025 Ebit Margin 15% to 17%
  • Vossloh (VOS TH) -1.3%
    • Vossloh 2025 Ebit Forecast Misses Estimates
  • Formycon (FYB TH) -1.5%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -1.6%
    • SMA Solar FY Ebitda Loss EU16M Vs. Profit EU311M Y/y
  • AlzChem Group AG (ACT TH) -1.6%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) -9.3%
    • Berlusconis’ MFE Makes Discount Bid for Germany’s ProSieben (1)

>>> US After Hours Summary: Auto stocks lower as President Trump imposes 25% tar

After Hours Summary: Auto stocks lower as President Trump imposes 25% tariffs; WOOF +10.7%, CNXC +10.5%, SCS +10.3%, FUL +6.7% higher on earnings; VRNT -10.7%, JEF -4.7% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: WOOF +10.7%, CNXC +10.5%, SCS +10.3%, FUL +6.7%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: IMNM +7.2% (CEO bought 137100 shares; Director bought 7800 shares), ZNTL +5.7% (files $250 mln mixed shelf securities offering), ANGI +4.6% (to join S&P SmallCap 600), CAVA +4.5% (to join S&P MidCap 400), CADL +2.5% (reports Phase 2a data for CAN-2409), COHR +2.1% (to sell epitaxial fabrication facility), CRSP +0.6% (COO to step down), PSEC +0.5% (CEO bought 24000 shares), DRS +0.4% (receives $16.9 mln prototype project award by the US Army), CGBD +0.2% (shareholders approve merger with Carlyle Secured Lending III), FE +0.1% (workforce reduction less than 3%)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: VRNT -10.7%, DDD -6.4%, JEF -4.7%, MLKN -2.5%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TECX -10.5% (stock offering by selling shareholders), GME -6.7% ($1.3 bln convertible notes offering , expects to use proceeds to acquire Bitcoin), GM -4.1% (President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the U.S., according to CNBC), ODP -2.1% (to be removed from S&P SmallCap 600), STLA -2.1% (President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the U.S., according to CNBC), VTS -2% (receives relief from Canadian securities authorities re future filing requirements), SVRA -1.9% (submits BLA to FDA for MOLBREEVI), TM -1.8% (President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the U.S., according to CNBC), LNTH -0.8% (CytoSite Bio announces agreement with Lantheus for granzyme B targeted PET imaging radiotracer for immunotherapy assessment), TSLA -0.6% (President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the U.S., according to CNBC), F -0.5% (President Trump to impose 25% tariffs on all cars not made in the U.S., according to CNBC)

WSJ : New ‘Yellowstone’ Spinoffs Stoke Feud Between Paramount and NBCUniversal

New ‘Yellowstone’ Spinoffs Stoke Feud Between Paramount and NBCUniversal
The entertainment companies spar over whose streaming service has the rights to air shows based on Taylor Sheridan’s hit western show

Forget the Dutton Ranch. The real drama on “Yellowstone” is behind the scenes between Paramount Global PARA 2.15%increase; green up pointing triangle, the entertainment company that makes the show, and rival NBCUniversal, which has the right to stream it.

Paramount is planning two spinoffs of the blockbuster western that it aims to keep for its own networks and streaming service. The planned new series could further inflame a yearslong fight with NBCUniversal, which has the exclusive rights to stream “Yellowstone” on its Peacock service and wants to retain as much related content as possible, according to people familiar with the matter.

“Yellowstone,” made by star creator Taylor Sheridan, has grown into one of Hollywood’s most successful television franchises by appealing to viewers across the U.S. For all of its popularity, however, it has never appeared in the U.S. on Paramount’s own streaming service, Paramount+.

Under the terms of its licensing deal with NBCUniversal, episodes air first on Paramount Network and then stream exclusively on Peacock. That deal, which Paramount executives have long regretted, is set to end in 2029, five years after the actual series finale, according to some of the people.

Comcast CMCSA 1.16%increase; green up pointing triangle-owned NBCUniversal has told Paramount that it believes any spinoffs similar to the original—featuring the same actors and characters—should fall under that deal, some of the people said.

The original “Yellowstone” series tells the story of the Dutton family of ranchers as they protect their Montana land. One of Paramount’s planned new shows will feature actors Kelly Reilly and Cole Hauser, who played “Yellowstone” characters Beth Dutton and Rip Wheeler, in those same roles. Another spinoff set for Paramount’s CBS network will feature actor Luke Grimes as another main “Yellowstone” character, working as a member of the Montana U.S. Marshals Special Operations Group, according to people familiar with the matter.

Paramount executives say that the deal with Peacock only extends to “Yellowstone” and now that the main character, John Dutton, is dead and the ranch has burned down, that story has ended, according to a person familiar with the situation.

NBCUniversal sent a letter to Paramount executives when reports of the first spinoff surfaced in May 2023, warning that any such show would be in violation of their agreement, said one of the people. Since then, NBCUniversal executives have discussed legal options over potential spinoffs with their lawyers, said some of the people close to the situation.

Paramount has launched related shows by Sheridan, such as “1923” and “1883,” which also both focus on the Dutton family but in different eras, with different characters. Those shows stream on Paramount+.

In recent weeks, the studio has approached streamers including Netflix NFLX -2.67%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Amazon about potentially licensing Sheridan’s “Mayor of Kingstown” and “1883” after they appear on Paramount+ as part of a library of movies and TV shows it is shopping. It hasn’t approached NBCUniversal about that deal, some of the people familiar with the matter said. Paramount executives told NBCUniversal that they wanted a global deal, and Peacock is only in the U.S.

Paramount and NBCUniversal previously tussled over the fifth and final season of “Yellowstone.” Paramount broke the season into two parts, releasing the second part in December 2024, a year after the first. Under Paramount’s deal with NBCUniversal, “Yellowstone” can air on Peacock 90 days after a season ends.

Critics of the move at NBCUniversal said that by splitting the season into two parts, Paramount could delay its appearance on Peacock. People close to Paramount say the company was contending with scheduling and creative conflicts with star Kevin Costner.

Paramount has approached NBCUniversal several times since the initial deal was signed, trying to reclaim the streaming rights for “Yellowstone,” but discussions never advanced, those people said.