(BFW) SocGen, Standard Chartered to Help Iran Access $4.2b, Fars Says

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BN 01/20 11:24 *FARS IS IRANIAN STATE-RUN NEWS AGENCY BN 01/20 11:23 *FARS DOESN'T IDENTIFY PERSON WHO SPOKE ON BANKS CHOSEN BY IRAN BN 01/20 11:20 *STANDARD CHARTERED, SOCIETE GENERALE AMONG BANKS CHOSEN BY IRAN BN 01/20 11:19 *BANKS TO EASE IRAN ACCESS TO $4.2B HELD IN ACCOUNTS: FARS BN 01/20 11:19 *3 BANKS CHOSEN TO FACILITATE IRAN'S ACCESS TO ITS FUNDS: FARS

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SocGen, Standard Chartered to Help Iran Access $4.2b, Fars Says 2014-01-20 11:45:52.64 GMT

By Golnar Motevalli Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Societe Generale, Standard Chartered and one other bank will help Iran access frozen oil revenue, state-run news agency Fars reports, citing unidentified official. * Funds unlocked due to interim nuclear deal * Third bank not identified * NOTE: Iran Freezes Nuclear Work Meeting Terms for Sanctions Relief {NSN MZP2ZI6S972T <go>} * NOTE: Iran Nuclear Accord Implementation to Begin, Obama Says {NSN MZB3OV1A74E9 <go>}

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To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Golnar Motevalli at +971-4-3641020 or gmotevalli@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dana El Baltaji at +971-4-364-1021 or delbaltaji@bloomberg.net

(SG) Allianz : On the wrong side of rising rates

* Update We are downgrading Allianz from Hold to Sell as we expect PIMCO’s earnings to come under pressure in 2014, disabling Allianz’s main growth engine. Coupled with the lacklustre growth prospects of its insurance operations, we see group earnings stagnating in the medium term, while we see better momentum with other stocks, especially those more positively correlated with US economic recovery.

* SG view US recovery has been one of the main drivers of stock specific performance in 2013 and our economists expect this to continue in 2014. While we see this as positive for stocks vulnerable to low bond yields, such as Axa, Aegon and Prudential, we see it as a threat to Allianz because of its dependence on PIMCO, which we think is now facing a very difficult environment after many years of extremely strong performance helped by low interest rates. In this report, we highlight that the likely loss of much of PIMCO’s performance fees, as well as the likelihood of continued outflows, especially in its core funds, will cause its operating earnings to fall by 10% in 2014, disabling Allianz’s main growth engine. In addition, we expect limited growth in its insurance operations, which are concentrated in mature, low growth European markets with a significant exposure to low German yields. The question we ask investors is why own Allianz now? The stock is not cheap by sector comparison in our view (trading on sector average spot multiples of 1.4x 2014e P/TNAV with a 14% R/TNAV and P/E of 10.3x), and is facing a period of unattractive earnings stagnation.

* How we value the stock 
We are reducing our target price to €118 (from €125) to reflect our 3% cut to earnings in 2014 (6% in 2015), bringing us below consensus. We value the stock using a SOTP model that uses cross-cycle assumptions and an explicit growth rate for 7 years. Inputting €5.22 2013e DPS gives a -8% 12m projected TSR, putting the stock in the SG Sell rating band.

*Events, catalysts & risks 
Q4 results are on 27 February. The key risks to our recommendation and target price are a reversal of US economic recovery and a fall in US bond yields, and better than expected performance in its insurance units.

(ZH) The Last 3 Times This Happened, Markets Turmoiled (Last December

I just resend this article because The Skew is very close from the 140 levels....last time in December nothing really happened so not sure it make sens but worth noting it and keeping an eye on it...for me ( I am not a derivative specialsit) but if Skew going higher means either Equities Investors are buying some Put or derivatives guys are selling some vol on calls...

I will monitor this index just to see if like last month nothing happened or if like mentionned in ZeroHedge article below we will see a big move...ZH is always quite bearish so lose a bit of impact...

Original Message From: LAURENT CHEKROUN () At: 12/22 19:21:48
The Last 3 Times This Happened, Markets Turmoiled

Thanks to Bob "I don't get out of bed unless it's over 20" Pisani's daily diatribes about VIX (the so-called 'fear' index), we are supposed to rest assured that all is well in the ever-decreasing horizon world of equity markets. However, while VIX measures the expectations of 'normal' day to day moves in stocks, it does not offer any insight into market participants' perspectives on tail risks (or 'the big one'). CBOE's SKEW index does just that, based on the pricing differences between normal and fat-tail risk pricing in the options market, it provides a measure of the market's belief in extreme events... and for only the 4th time in history, it's flashing a big red warning signal of volatility ahead.

The last 3 times this happened... markets went a little crazy...

In 24 years of history, SKEW has been above 140 only 4 times (including the current)... the last 3 times were...

06/21/1990 - S&L Crisis (Stocks dropped 18% in next 3 months and the US entered recession)
10/16/1998 - Russian Default and LTCM (Stocks soared 22% in the next 3 months and the dot-com bubble was born)
03/16/2006 - Housing Bubble peak (Stock dropped 6% in next 3 months and the 'great recession' started within a year)
And now?

12/20/2013... Taper...

(Citi) Vivendi

Entering the Endgame; Tension Between SOTP and EPS

*What's Changing in This Report? 
We reduce our 2014-15E EPS by 13-17% driven by a combination of weaker u/l trends (mobile at SFR), FX (in particular Yen and Real at UMG/GVT) and investment (content costs at C+; Watchever in Germany). Despite the move down in EPS, we increase our SOTP-based PT to €19.8 as we remove the holding discount. We stay Neutral on Vivendi.

*Entering the End Game 
The Strategic Review is due to come to a head by the end of 1H14. By that stage, SFR is set to be de-merged, leaving Vivendi a much smaller and more focused asset centred on Universal Music (40% of Vivendi Media revenues), Canal+ (44% of revenues) and GVT (16% of revenues). The precise level of gearing is unknown, but based on SFR keeping an investment-grade rating, we assume the rump media asset will be left with around €2bn of debt.

*First, the Good News… 
We see three sources of potential upside: (1) a better rating on SFR, which could benefit from market repair; with each EBITDA multiple point worth €2.5bn (c. €1.9 per VIV share), on our estimates, the gearing to this is significant; (2) non-telco M&A, in particular scope to liquidate the ATVI stake (worth c. €1.1bn) or GVT (worth c. €5.5bn), proceeds from which could fund accretive cash usage; (3) better growth (and with it a better multiple) for the core media assets.

*…But the Story Is Very Dependent on Asset Sales Completing
The benefit of market repair in France will only be fully realized post demerger. Furthermore, the competitive landscape in Brazil is in flux and a clean exit from GVT is far from guaranteed. Finally, the rump generates c. €12bn of PF revenue and c. €2.5bn of PF EBITDA, but only c. €500m of FCF. This not only implies a very low ongoing FCF yield (barely 3% ex SFR at 5.5x 2014E EV/EBITDA) but calls into question the dividend, which at c.€1.3bn p.a. would not be covered, on our estimates.

*Downgrading EPS by c.13-17% but Staying Neutral 
Ex any holding discount we can justify the current share price and raise our PT accordingly. We see two key issues for investors: (1) many investors assume that GVT will be disposed of but there is uncertainty on this point and running GVT is much less preferable to a clean sale, in our view. (2) All of the analysis above assumes no further deterioration in u/l EPS momentum, which we think may be optimistic.

(BFW) SAP’s Plattner Says Chinese Sought His Stake in 2012, Focus Says

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SAP’s Plattner Says Chinese Sought His Stake in 2012, Focus Says 2014-01-20 08:04:31.139 GMT

By Claudia Rach Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese investors asked about one and a half years ago whether SAP Chairman Hasso Plattner would be willing to sell his stake in the co., Focus says, citing Plattner. * Plattner is SAP biggest single stakeholder, holding 9.8%: Bloomberg data * Article in German: http://tinyurl.com/q3xwrkx * Next catalyst: Full 4Q, FY results scheduled to be released tomorrow; SAP pre-released Jan. 10, reporting 4Q non-IFRS software sales, op. profit in line, meeting own 2013 target * Holds investor meeting Feb. 4 * NOTE: SAP down 2.5% YTD; was up 2.7% in 2013 vs DAX up 25% vs SX8P up 27% * NOTE: 45 analyst ratings: 67% buy, 27% hold, 7% sell; avg. PT EU66.2: Bloomberg data

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To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Rach in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6219 or crach1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

(GS) Strategy Matters : Q4 2013 Earnings Season

Between now and the end of March, 491 companies, representing 82% of the STOXX Europe 600, will report their annual results. Since the end of the last earnings season, consensus estimates have been revised down substantially while the level of economic activity has remained broadly stable. In contrast, we expect results to mark an improvement compared to the third quarter. We continue to expect European earnings growth to reach 14% in 2014 as economic growth accelerates, and think this will be the main driver of equity returns.

* Exposure has been a key factor explaining negative revisions
Since the beginning of the year, 2013 earnings have been revised down by close to 15%. This has mostly been driven by lower net income margins. The dispersion of sector revisions has been particularly low while exposure has been a key factor differentiating earnings momentum. Our UK domestic exposure basket has seen positive revisions while EM industrials are down 26%.

* We expect a small improvement this season
Looking at the different factors influencing earnings season (revisions, economic activity and currency) we expect the season to be an improvement in terms of earnings surprises compared to the third quarter. However, this is mostly driven by substantially lower expectations coming into the season rather than an improved economic environment or more favourable FX evolution. Looking out to 2014, we expect earnings growth to reach 14% as global growth accelerates. We forecast an EPS level of 24.9 for the STOXX Europe 600.

>>> Algeta ASA Bayer commences voluntary cash offer to acquire the entire issued

Algeta ASA Bayer commences voluntary cash offer to acquire the entire issued share capital of Algeta for NOK362/shr (total deal value NOK17.6B) as recommended in Dec 2013
- The Offer period starts on 20 January, 2014 and expires at 9:00am CET on 24 February, 2014. Bayer has obtained pre-acceptances for approximately 14% of the shares in Algeta, including pre-acceptances from all members of Algeta's Board of Directors, certain senior managers as well as from Algeta's largest shareholder, HealthCap IV.
- The consummation of the Offer remains subject to satisfaction or waiver of customary conditions, including a minimum acceptance of at least 90% or such lower percentage (not being less than 50%) of the outstanding Algeta shares as Aviator Acquisition AS determines and no material adverse change having occurred in Algeta. The German Federal Cartel Office's clearance of Bayer's acquisition of Algeta was announced on 6 January, 2014. No further antitrust approvals are required.
- As set forth in the Offer document, the Offer period is scheduled to expire on 24 February, 2014 and may be extended, at any time and on one or several times, provided however, that the maximum Offer period may not exceed 10 weeks. Bayer expects to close the transaction during the first quarter of 2014.