- Stifel notes CSCO's quarter came in largely as expected with continued headwinds in emerging markets and switching and routing transitions. Revenues of $11.15 bln and EPS of $0.47 beat consensus of $11.03 bln and $0.46. Product gross margins were a little concerning -- down to 58.8%, a level not seen since 2001. Co blamed the lower gross margins on volumes. There is some glimmer of hope -- emerging markets improved slightly in the quarter and the company is building backlog, exiting the quarter with the highest Q2 backlog as measured in weeks in the last 10 years. US enterprise and commercial continued to show strength. Guidance for April calls for revenues to be down 6-8% y/y. Commentary on the call suggested that the issues will likely linger through Q4/Q1 before we see y/y growth. Opco notes Cisco reported in-line January-quarter results and April-quarter guidance.
- FBR notes CSCO quarterly results reinforced our idea that the networking space will undergo a period of transition beginning in 2014. The networking heavyweight posted a mostly in-line quarter with revenue at $11.2B (-7.8% YOY), slightly above the consensus $11B estimate. GMs sagged to 61.3%, close to FBR's 61.2% estimate and below the 61.9% consensus but still within the guided 61%-62% guide. Vigilent opex controls and one of the more aggressive share repurchase efforts on record at $4B helped keep EPS of $0.47 just above the consensus $0.46 estimate. While FBR's checks indicate that Cisco has developed a competitive suite of products for the next phase of its transformation, it continues to expect these products to take at least two to four quarters to begin to offset the current negative trends in the core business.
- RBC notes CSCO's Jan-qtr results and Apr-qtr guidance continue to represent a modest negative for supply chain companies, as demand momentum in core switching and routing markets remains challenged. RBC believes Apr-qtr guidance implies modest downside for CLS and JBL relative to their expectations for networking-centric markets in the upcoming quarter. CSCO exposure: CLS: 10%+ of sales via routers. FLEX: ~6-8% of sales via switches, routers, and infrastructure equipment. JBL: ~7--9% of sales via routers and switches, APH: ~4% of sales, TEL: ~2%.
- TWC is trading ~8% higher in pre market at $146.05, but off of earlier highs
- CMCSA is trading ~4% lower in pre market at $53.00
- Wunderlich notes CMCSA is making a $159 per share/$45.2bn all equity friendly bid for TWC. The deal is, however, problematical, from the vantage point of the FCC and DOJ, with reservations having been expressed last year by FCC Commissioners - even with no black letter cable ownership cap. If Comcast just enabled TWC to hit its 2016 biz plan, firm would arrive at TWC fair valuation ranging from $158 to $172, sans synergies and NBCUniversal benefits. The pre-synergy deal multiple appears to be near 8.1x 2014E OCF (WSI above OCF consensus), although a supposed $1.5bn in cost savings (let alone sales growth and customer retention) lowers the multiple to 6.9x and adds $29 per share in value.
- RBC notes, according to multiple sources, Comcast and Time Warner Cable, the two largest cable companies with a combined 61% share of cable TV subscribers, have agreed to an all-stock purchase of TWC for $159/share. This implies an 8.3x EV/EBITDA multiple based on firm's 2014 EBITDA estimate for TWC and follows Charter's recent bid for TWC for $132.50 per share, whichTWC management rejected. RBC believes regulatory approval is possible, and have estimated annualizeds synergies in the mid $400M range.
- FBR notes reports that Comcast and Time Warner Cable have agreed to merge, rebuffing CHTR's Liberty-backed bid. The initial investor reaction could be cautionary for TV network stocks, as well as Liberty Media and SIRI. However, FBR would buy against the concerns. FBR reiterates Outperform ratings on LMCA, SIRI, TWX, DIS, DISCA, VIAB, FOXA, VIAB.
- Goodyear's fourth quarter 2013 net income available to common shareholders was $228 million (84 cents per share), a fourth quarter record and up from breakeven in the 2012 quarter. All per share amounts are diluted. The 2013 fourth quarter included total charges of $17 million (6 cents per share) due to rationalizations, asset write-offs and accelerated depreciation; and gains of $41 million (15 cents per share) due to income and other discrete tax benefits and $2 million (1 cent per share) from asset sales.
- All amounts are after taxes and minority interest.Fourth quarter 2013 sales reflect $64 million in higher tire unit volumes; $178 million in lower sales in other tire related businesses, most notably third party chemical sales in North America; $36 million in lower price/mix, principally due to lower raw material costs; and $102 million in unfavorable foreign currency translation.
- Tire unit volumes totaled 40.7 million, up 2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2012.
- Asia Pacific's fourth quarter sales decreased 9 percent from 2012 to $537 million. Sales reflect an 8 percent increase in tire unit volume, which was more than offset by reduced price/mix, $39 million in unfavorable foreign currency translation and $7 million in lower sales in other tire-related businesses.
- Co reaffirms 2014-2016 outlook targets; The company reaffirmed its 2014-2016 financial targets, which include: - Annual segment operating income growth of between 10 percent and 15 percent, - Annual positive free cash flow from operations and, - An adjusted debt to EBITDAP ratio of 2.5x. Additionally, the company continues to expect about a 2 percent to 3 percent increase in unit volumes for 2014 over 2013.
- Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.50-0.54 vs. $0.57 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
- Co issues in-line guidance for FY14, sees EPS of $2.43-2.53 vs. $2.52 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
Co announced a 16 percent increase in its dividend for the first quarter of 2014 and reported 0.2 percent lower underlying after-tax income for the fourth quarter 2013, due to a higher underlying effective tax rate. Underlying fourth quarter pretax income increased 6.5 percent, driven by improved performance in the U.S. and Europe, along with less underlying interest expense versus a year ago. U.S. GAAP net income from continuing operations attributable to MCBC for the fourth quarter increased 118.3 percent due to lower U.S. GAAP income tax expense and higher non-core gains, along with improved financial results in the U.S. and Europe. Worldwide beer volume increased 0.1 percent. Net sales declined 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013, driven by unfavorable foreign exchange.
OUTLOOK
Contracts
Our portfolio of term customer contracts provides a base level of activity and revenue and, as of February 12, 2014, we have term contracts in place for an average of 57 rigs in Canada, 53 in the United States and eight internationally for the first quarter of 2014 and an average of 51 rig contracts in Canada, 41 in the United States and seven internationally for the full year. In Canada, term contracted rigs normally generate 250 utilization days per year because of the seasonal nature of well site access. In most regions in the United States and internationally, term contracts normally generate 365 utilization days per year.
Drilling Activity
In the United States, our average active rig count in the quarter was 90 rigs, up three rigs over the fourth quarter in 2012 and up nine rigs over the third quarter of 2013. We currently have 95 rigs active in the United States. In Canada, our average active rig count in the quarter was 89 rigs, the same as the fourth quarter in 2012 and up six rigs over the third quarter of 2013. We currently have 144 rigs active in Canada and expect the strength of drilling activity in the first quarter to be driven in large part by weather. We expect to benefit from the fleet enhancements made over the past few years when compared to the prior year period. Internationally, our average active rig count in the quarter was 11 rigs, up three rigs over the fourth quarter in 2012 and in line with the third quarter of 2013. We currently have 11 rigs active internationally and expect our active rig count to grow over the next two quarters as two new build rigs for the Kuwait market are delivered late in the second quarter, and we see potential for additional rigs going to work in Mexico.
- Organic revenue grew 4.1% primarily reflecting effective net pricing. Reported net revenue grew 1%. Structural changes, principally the refranchising of the company's beverage operations in Vietnam, negatively impacted reported net revenue performance by 1%age point and foreign exchange translation had a 3-percentage-point unfavorable impact on reported net revenue in the quarter. Core constant currency operating profit rose 1% reflecting the impacts of revenue growth and productivity savings, offset by operating cost inflation, negative geographic mix and $56 million of incremental investments.
As a reflection of management's confidence in the company's strong and sustainable cash flow generation capacity, and consistent with its commitment to disciplined capital allocation, the company announced a 15% increase in its annualized dividend to $2.62 per share from $2.27 per share, to take effect with the June 2014 payment. The increase will be the 42nd consecutive annual increase in dividends per share. It also anticipates increasing share repurchases in 2014 to ~$5 billion. Combined, these programs are expected to return a total of $8.7 billion to shareholders in 2014, a 35% increase from 2013 levels.
The co announced a new 5-year, $5 billion productivity program (2015-2019). The savings are expected to come from accelerating investment in manufacturing automation, further optimizing the company's global manufacturing footprint, including closing of certain manufacturing facilities, re-engineering go-to-market systems in developed markets, expanding shared services and implementing simplified organization structures to drive efficiency. As a result of these actions, it expects to sustain ~$1 billion in annual productivity savings through 2019. The extended targets reflect a continuation of the benefits of the investments made and actions taken in recent years by the company to harmonize processes and systems and to drive greater global coordination across its businesses. The company remains on track to achieve its previously announced 3-year, $3 billion productivity target for 2012-2014, with ~$2 billion in savings realized through the end of 2013 and ~$1 billion in productivity savings expected for 2014.
Asian Market Update: Australia unemployment rises to 10-year highs; China drains liquidity injected before Lunar New Year; BOK remains on hold
***Economic Data*** - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED); (9TH STRAIGHT PAUSE) - (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -3.7K (2nd consecutive decline) V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.0% V 5.9%E (highest reading since Jul 2003) - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATION: 2.3% V 2.3% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 56.2 V 56.4 PRIOR (3-month low) - (JP) JAPAN JAN DOMESTIC CGPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.4%E - (UK) UK JAN RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: 53% V 58%E (4-month low)
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Cisco slides over 4% in extended session despite a narrow beat on top and bottom lines following soft Q3 guidance. - Whole Foods down over 7% after missing estimates and cutting FY targets. - Lenovo up marginally after Q3 results that saw the PC giant expand its market share to record-high 18.5%; Smartphone shipments also spike nearly 50%; Overall sales boosted by China Rev which now accounts for nearly 40% of the total. - CNBC's Faber tweets Comcast to acquire Time Warner Cable for $159/shr in a $42B deal. - Australia saw its 2nd consecutive decline in net employment, pulling jobless rate to a 10-year high of 6.0%; Participation rate also comes in soft, remaining at multi-year low of 64.5%. Analysts suggest the soft labor market will make RBA think twice about even hinting about higher rates despite dropping its easing bias last week. - BOK on hold for 9th consecutive month in another unanimous decision. BOK Gov Kim increasingly more alarmed about the impact of Fed taper on the emerging economies. - China remains on the sidelines in terms of open market operations for the 3rd straight session, mopping up short-term liquidity injected ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB and ¥200B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.6690% v 4.0750% prior (3rd consecutive decline, lowest since Jan 20th); 1-week: 5.0210% v 5.1780% prior (4th consecutive decline) - (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (3rd consecutive session of halted operations); Drains net CNY450B this week v injected CNY75B prior - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1100 v 6.1078 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Jan 22nd) - (CN) China Qinhuangdao coal price falls to CNY565-575/t (5th consecutive decline; lowest level since late Nov)
- AUD/USD collapsed by about 100pips or over 1% below $0.8930 after the disappointing employment data, erasing the gains of the past two sessions that saw rallies from strong China data and solid NAB business conditions. NZD/USD is pulled below $0.83, down over 30pips from the highs. EUR/USD recovers above $1.36, while GBP/USD consolidates above $1.66 after the overnight post-BOE spike. Risk aversion in the afternoon session weighing on USD/JPY as it slides about 50pips toward the ¥102 handle.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Premier Li Keqiang: China should continue to focus on air pollution treatment; To allocate CNY10B from central govt to reward for air pollution treatment - Chinese press - (JP) Japan BOJ Gov Kuroda: BOJ easing putting downward pressure on bond yields - addressing parliament - (JP) Japan PM Abe: Have yet to decide whether to raise sales tax to 10% - addressing parliament - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: want to discuss various regional cooperation issues during US pres Obama's planned visit to Japan - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Australia jobless data is disappointing but in line with expectations; need GDP +3% for job improvement - (AU) HSBC's Bloxham: Clear that Australia's labor sector is lagging other indicators in economy - Australian press - (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: To step up monitoring of FX market; South Korea Fin Min Hyun: To strengthen monitoring of FX market - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs: January housing transactions rose to 58.8K, +117.4% y/y - Korean press - (KR) South Korea govt said to push for more labor market flexibility as part of a 3-year plan to be unveiled later this month - Korean press
**US/Europe** - (EU) ECB's Coene (Belgium): Eurozone inflation of 0.7% is not a sufficient element to spur ECB to new measures - financial press - (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, FOMC voter): Taper likely to continue, barring economic reversal
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -1.4%, S&P/ASX flat, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng -0.3%, Mar S&P500 -0.2% at 1,812, Apr gold -0.4% at $1,290, Mar crude oil -0.6% at $99.82/brl
US markets: - TWC: Comcast to acquire all of Time Warner Cable in all stock deal for $159/shr; Deal estimated at $45.2B - financial press - SKX: Reports Q4 $0.28 v $0.17e, R$450.7M v $449Me; +15.1% afterhours - BGC: Reports Q4 $0.36 v $0.28e, R$1.66B v $1.54Be; +12.3% afterhours - CBS: Reports Q4 $0.78 v $0.76e, R$3.91B v $3.83Be; +4.4% afterhours - NVDA: Reports Q4 $0.32 v $0.18e, R$1.14B v $1.05Be; +3.9% afterhours - CAKE: Reports Q4 $0.57 v $0.59e, R$475M v $483Me; Guides Q1 $0.48-0.50 v $0.51e, SSS flat to 1% - conf call; +1.5% afterhours - MET: Reports Q4 $1.37 adj v $1.30e, R$18.38B v $17.0Be; +0.7% afterhours - AMAT: Reports Q1 $0.23 adj v $0.22e, R$2.19B v $2.16Be; +0.5% afterhours - CTL: Reports Q4 $0.68 v $0.59e, R$4.54B v $4.52Be; -0.4% afterhours - MDLZ: Reports Q4 $0.42 v $0.44e, R$9.49B v $9.59Be; -2.9% afterhours - NTAP: Reports Q3 $0.75 v $0.71e, R$1.61B v $1.63Be; -3.2% afterhours - CSCO: Reports Q2 $0.47 v $0.46e, R$11.2B v $11.1Be; Increases quarterly dividend 12% to $0.19 from $0.17/shr; Guides Q3 Rev -8% to -6% y/y v -6.5%e (implies R$11.2-11.5B v $11.4Be) - conf call; -4.2% afterhours - SPWR: Reports Q4 $0.47 v $0.28e, Rev (GAAP) $638M v $688Me (non-GAAP $758.2M; unclear if comp); -4.7% afterhours - WFM: Reports Q1 $0.42 v $0.44e, R$4.24B v $4.29Be; -7.5% afterhours - LF: Reports Q4 $0.00 v $0.12e, R$186.7M v $213Me; authorizes $30M (6.2% of market cap) stock buyback; -10.2% afterhours - ITRI: Reports Q4 $0.72 (ex items) v $0.76e, R$524M v $527Me; -15.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: David Jones DJS.AU -1.3% (Q2 results); China South Publishing & Media Group 601098.CN +2.4% (prelim FY13 results); Asahi Group 2502.JP -5.4% (FY12/13 results) - Consumer staples: Mengniu Dairy 2319.HK +4.5%, China Coal Energy 1898.HK -3.2% (Mengniu Dairy to replace China Coal Energy in Hang Seng Index) - Financials: Australian Stock Exchange ASX.AU +1.9% (H1 results); Kerry Properties 683.HK +2.0% (positive profit alert) - Materials: Newcrest Mining NCM.AU +3.0% (no plans to raise equity) - Industrials: BYD Corp 1211.HK +6.7%, Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology 1157.HK -2.5% (BYD to replace Zoomlion in Hong Kong H-Shares Index) - Technology: TCL Corp 000100.CN +1.9% (Jan results); Lenovo 992.HK -0.5% (Q3 results) - Telecom: Telstra Corp TLS.AU +1.0% (H1 results); Softbank 9984.JP -2.9% (9M results)