(GS) Cap Goods: Philips up to BUY /// Wartsila to CL SELL /// Geberit, Metso, Outotec ALL down to Sell

Company Name Rating (New) Rating (Old) FLSmidth & Co. A/S Neutral Buy Geberit Holding AG Sell Neutral Metso OYJ Sell Neutral Outotec Sell Neutral Philips Electronics Buy Neutral Wartsila (B) CL-Sell Sell

A tough up-cycle for Capital Goods - The last cycle saw many booming end-markets: mining, power generation, shipping, O&G and Chinese construction among many growing 3x+. We expect this up-cycle to be absent of booms, and see several preceding end-markets continuing (or entering) multi-year declines. We expect a mild recovery, but do not see the sector returning to prior peak growth/margins. While we still see material upside to certain names, we expect dispersion to widen and reiterate our Neutral coverage view. Avoiding certain end-markets will be key - A rising tide lifts all boats, but when the tide ebbs many are stranded. We would avoid two groups: (1) stocks with large exposure to declining markets. We expect KONE (CL-Sell), Wärtsilä (onto CL-Sell), Alstom (Sell), Metso and Outotec (both down to Sell) to struggle to grow meaningfully. And (2) weak cash managers exposed to EM competition: Alstom, Nexans and Husqvarna (all Sell). Other downgrades include FLSmidth (to Neutral) and Geberit (to Sell). What we’d own: Philips up to Buy, reiterate CL-Buy on Atlas and Prysmian - We prefer: (1) Companies which can outgrow their end-markets due to competitive advantage: we expect Atlas (CL-Buy) and Legrand (Buy) to continue to their track record of doing so. We also see Prysmian (CL-Buy) and Schneider (Buy) outgrowing their end markets. (2) Turnaround stories. We believe the constant cash leakage from GEA (Buy) and Philips (up to Buy) is drawing to a close while, at the same time, they should benefit from a general recovery. €130 bn: cash management key - We introduce 2016/17 estimates and make changes to our long-term growth forecasts. Meanwhile our new forward-looking Cash Manager framework details where we expect €130 bn of cash to be allocated and which companies we think will spend it most productively. All this changes our GS SUSTAIN rankings, in line with what is turning into a very different sector landscape this time around.

(Barron's) Anadarko Stock Offers 30% Upside

With significant ownership in and near the much ballyhooed Wolfcamp shale field, the independent oil and gas producer should reward investors.

Anadarko Petroleum is well positioned to energize investors' portfolios.

A boom in shale drilling has made rock stars of the Eagle Ford formation in South Texas and the vast Marcellus formation along the Appalachian Basin, with rich deposits in Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia. The next big name could be the Wolfcamp shale field, part of the Permian Basin that spills over from West Texas into New Mexico. That's excellent news for Anadarko Petroleum (ticker: APC), an independent oil and gas producer that controls assets in these areas and more. Its 600,000 acres in and near Wolfcamp are underappreciated by investors, according to Credit Suisse analyst Arun Jayaram. He predicts the shares, recently $93, will rise more than 30% in a year, to $122, as investors reward the company for its growing portfolio of long-life deposits. Other analysts see Anadarko as a tempting takeover for one of the majors. Based a half hour north of Houston, Anadarko is expected to grow its revenues 14% this year, to $15.2 billion. It's big for an independent but a mere puddle compared withExxon Mobil (XOM), whose revenues are slipping but are projected to total $444 billion this year. Anadarko's stock price has multiplied eight times over the past two decades. Divide the credit three ways: Breakthroughs in drilling technology have freed oil and gas from porous rock, turning America into the Saudi Arabia of the West. Fast growth in emerging markets has helped keep crude prices buoyant for most of the past decade, which has paid off for Anadarko's international holdings as well as its U.S. ones. And the company has shown a knack for finding, selling and tapping key deposits. It's now growing production where prices and profits are high: crude and natural-gas liquids, as opposed to gas itself. One key to bargain hunting among oil exploration stocks is to tell early on which deposits hold large amounts of oil that can be extracted cheaply, and thus, profitably. Credit Suisse ran an analysis of last year's drilling in a portion of the Permian called the Delaware Basin, which overlaps with Wolfcamp. Its results show particularly rich output for wells in Ward and Loving counties in Texas, where Anadarko has concentrated holdings. Output there is small for now compared with Anadarko's operations at Eagle Ford and the Niobrara formation in Colorado. But it could grow quickly in coming years, and as U.S. onshore crude production makes up a larger portion of Anadarko's worldwide output, its profit margins should rise, according to Robert Christensen at Canaccord Genuity. He notes that the company has the things that larger suitors want most, like acreage, exploration expertise and overseas concessions. And above all, growth potential. Earnings per share for Anadarko are expected to rise 28% this year, or twice as fast as revenues, to $4.52. That puts shares at just over 20 times earnings. Much of the company's value is tied up in assets that haven't been fully developed. Jayaram calculates that Anadarko's total assets are worth $122 a share. The average exploration and production company in his coverage trades at 91% of its estimated net asset value. Anadarko recently traded at 76%. Jayaram argues it will reach 100% of NAV as the company gets more credit for its predictable, lucrative assets.

>>> What to look at today :

US Markets Rallied on indications the budget stalemate may be getting a bit closer to a resolution, equities Rallied after House Republicans proposed extending the debt limit by six weeks in order to allow for a broader discussion on spending...VIX @16.48 (-15.9%)...BRazil+0.85%...Asia manily higher tracking US Perf, no much news in Asia, most notably Japan saw another increase in corporate goods price index (CGPI) and weekly Fed balance sheet data did NOT produce a drop in treasury buying by foreign central banks despite the political gridlock in Washington. China September figures on trade and possibly lending are expected over the weekend...Nikkei +1.5%...Shanghai +1.57% China Sept auto sales at 1.59M v 1.5Me, +21% y/y Vehicle sales +19.7% --> Watch BMW, VOW3, & DAI this morning...

Eur$ 1.3534 European Fucad Curncy gpt indicated 30bps higher

Keep an eye on : - DAI GY : Daimler to Rise in Relative Terms Over Next 60 Days: MS - EOAN GY : E.ON to Fall in Relative Terms Over Next 30 Days: Morgan Stanley - FRA GY : Fraport Group Sept. Passengers Rise 5.8% to 11.1m - RBS LN : BNP, SocGen Interested in RBS Equity-Deratives Unit: L’Agefi - ROG VX : Genentech Says FDA Accepted, Filed SBLA for Xolair - SNAM IM : Snam Kept at Buy at BofA; Next News Flow Focused on Regulation

(NYT) No Quick Deal, but Offer by G.O.P. on Debt Shifts the Tone

WASHINGTON — President Obama and House Republicans failed to reach agreement on a six-week extension of the nation’s borrowing authority during a meeting Thursday at the White House, but the two sides kept talking, and the offer from politically besieged Republicans was seen as an initial step toward ending the budget standoff.

In statements afterward that struck the most positive tone in weeks of acrimony, House Republicans described their hour-and-a-half-long meeting with Mr. Obama as “a useful and productive conversation,” while the White House described “a good meeting,” though “no specific determination was made” about the Republicans’ offer. Both agreed to continue talks through the night. People familiar with the meeting said that Mr. Obama pressed Republicans to reopen the government, and that Republicans raised the possibility that financing could be restored by early next week if terms for broad budget negotiations could be reached. Twenty Republicans, led by Speaker John A. Boehner, went to the White House at Mr. Obama’s invitation after a day of fine-tuning their proposal to increase the Treasury Department’s authority to borrow money to pay existing obligations through Nov. 22. The government is expected to reach its borrowing limit next week. In exchange, they sought a commitment by the president to negotiate a deal for long-term deficit reduction and a tax overhaul. The president “didn’t say yes, didn’t say no,” said Representative Paul D. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin and chairman of the House Budget Committee. He added, “We agreed to continue talking and continue negotiating.” Still, the House Republican offer represented a potentially significant breakthrough. Even if Democrats found fault with the Republicans’ immediate proposal — for example, it would prevent the Treasury secretary from engaging in accounting maneuvers to stave off potential default — it was seen as an opening gambit in the legislative dance toward some resolution before the government is expected to breach its debt limit on Thursday. Even before the meeting, the White House and its Democratic allies in Congress were all but declaring victory at the evidence that Republicans — suffering the most in polls, and pressured by business allies and donors not to provoke a government default — were seeking a way out of the impasse. After some fretful weeks, the Democrats believe, Mr. Obama was seeing some payoff for his big gamble this year. Burned by his experience with House Republicans in mid-2011, when brinkmanship over the debt limit hobbled the already weak economy, Mr. Obama began his second term vowing never again to negotiate over raising the ceiling or to give any concessions to Republicans for performing an act that is their constitutional responsibility. “The good news is that Republicans have accepted the principle that they’re not going to attach conditions to the debt ceiling,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee. “The bad news is they’ve only extended the debt ceiling for six weeks.” For House Republicans, the maneuvers represented a near-reversal of their original strategy in September of going to the mat over the debt limit but not shutting down the government. Now, under pressure from falling poll numbers and angry business supporters, they are seeking a compromise on the debt ceiling. Yet for now, they are still refusing to finance and reopen the government without some concessions. Mr. Boehner and his colleagues left the White House without speaking to waiting reporters, and quickly gathered in his Capitol suite for further discussion. Their debt limit proposal could come to a vote as soon as Friday. Before the White House meeting, administration and Congressional Democrats said they were skeptical that House Republican leaders could pass the proposal. A large faction of Tea Party conservatives campaigned on promises never to vote to increase the nation’s debt limit. And Congressional Democrats vowed to oppose any proposal that did not also fully finance a government now shuttered since the fiscal year began Oct. 1. “We’ll see what they’re able to pass,” said Mr. Obama’s press secretary, Jay Carney. Senate Democrats had their own White House meeting with Mr. Obama and Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. three hours before the House Republicans arrived, and the majority leader, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada, declined to embrace the Republicans’ debt limit proposal until he saw it. He told reporters that Democrats would not negotiate on further deficit reductions until House Republicans agreed to the measure passed by the Senate to finance and open the government through mid-November. “Not going to happen,” Mr. Reid said. “Open the government,” he added. “There is so much pain and suffering out there. It is really tear-jerking, to say the least.” Separately, members of the Senate’s Republican minority, who are to meet with Mr. Obama on Friday, worked on a proposal for full-year government funding — at levels reflecting the across-the-board spending cuts known as sequestration, but giving agencies flexibility to shift money around. They are considering adding it to any short-term debt limit increase that the House might pass and send to the Senate. Mr. Ryan said before the White House meeting that Republicans were now willing to formally negotiate with Senate Democrats over a long-term, comprehensive budget framework. The Republicans have resisted such a move since April, fearing that it would require compromises, like raising additional tax revenues, that would enrage the party’s conservative base heading into the 2014 midterm elections. Many House Republicans, leaving a closed-door party caucus earlier Thursday that at times grew contentious, said they would support their leadership’s short-term debt limit proposal. But they said they would do so only if Mr. Obama agreed to negotiate a broader deficit reduction deal, with big savings from entitlement programs. The president has insisted he will not agree to significant reductions in projected Medicare and Medicaid spending — even his own tentative proposals — unless Republicans agree to raise revenues by curbing tax breaks for corporations and wealthy individuals. And Mr. Boehner in recent days reaffirmed the party’s anti-tax stance, which suggests that future talks could founder. Economists across a broad spectrum agree that breaching the debt limit would damage the economy. The new Republican proposal could temporarily remove that threat.

>>> Swedish Match AB Guides FY13 Op profit in US cigars to be more 'uncertain' a

Swedish Match AB Guides FY13 Op profit in US cigars to be more 'uncertain' and 'modest'

- During recent months, competitive activities for US cigars have intensified further, which has resulted in lower than expected volumes and operating profit for our US mass market cigar business in the third quarter. - Given this development, we now anticipate operating profit for the Other tobacco products segment in the third quarter to be in the range of 50-60 MSEK below the third quarter of the prior year. As a result 2013 full year operating profit for Other tobacco products will also be below the level of 2012, driven by a decline in our mass market cigar business.

(BofA-ML) The Flow Show: Everyone loves Europe...Outflows of all Assets

(Full note attached) * Asset Class Flows - Equities: $6.5bn outflows ($4.1bn via ETF's) (largest outflows in 5 weeks) - Bonds: $1.8bn outflows (largest in 4 weeks) - MMF: $23bn outflows (largest in 4 months); YTD outflows reach $114bn - Precious metals: $0.2bn outflows (4 straight weeks)

* Equity Flows - EM: ekes out small $0.1bn inflows (inflows in 4 out of past 5 weeks) - Europe: 15 straight weeks of inflows ($0.7bn) (Table 2) - Japan: $1.1bn inflows (5 straight weeks) - US: $10.3bn outflows (largest in 7 weeks) - By style, note divergence between inflows to US small-cap ($0.9bn) vs outflows from US lg-cap ($6.2bn) for second straight week

* Fixed Income Flows - 68 straight weeks of inflows to floating-rate debt ($0.6bn) - 5th straight week of inflows to HY bond funds ($1.1bn) (Table 3) - 5th straight week of redemptions from govt/tsy funds ($0.9bn) - $0.8bn outflows from IG bond funds - $0.5bn outflows from EM debt funds - 26 straight weeks of outflows from TIPS ($0.2bn)

(BFW) *SWEDISH MATCH CUTS FORECAST; OPER. PROFIT TO BE ‘MODEST’

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

BN 10/11 06:18 *SWEDISH MATCH: OP PFT OTHER TOBACCO PDTS 3Q SK50M-60M UNDER '12 BFW 10/11 06:18 *SWEDISH MATCH CUTS FORECAST; OPER. PROFIT TO BE ‘MODEST’ BN 10/11 06:16 *SWEDISH MATCH: COMPETITIVE ACTIVITIES US CIGARS INTENSIFIED BN 10/11 06:15 *SWEDISH MATCH: REVISED OUTLOOK FOR US CIGARS

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Swedish Match: Revised outlook for US cigars 2013-10-11 06:15:13.991 GMT

In the January-June half year 2013 report, the following statement was included in the outlook section:

For the full year of 2013 we anticipate higher sales and operating profit for US cigars, driven by strong volume growth. However, due to pricing and promotional activities now planned in light of increased competition, operating profit growth is more uncertain and is expected to be modest.

During recent months, competitive activities for US cigars have intensified further, which has resulted in lower than expected volumes and operating profit for our US mass market cigar business in the third quarter.

Given this development, we now anticipate operating profit for the Other tobacco products segment in the third quarter to be in the range of 50-60 MSEK below the third quarter of the prior year. As a result 2013 full year operating profit for Other tobacco products will also be below the level of 2012, driven by a decline in our mass market cigar business.

>>> Brokers Ups & Downs (bis)

Up

*ACCOR RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI *DEUTSCHE TELEKOM RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC *DIAGEO RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE *ENEL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC *PHILIPS ELECTRONICS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *POLAR CAPITAL RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS *RALLYE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN *SIEMENS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DZ *UBI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE *WHITBREAD RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

Down

*ANDRITZ CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BAADER *CAMPARI CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE *FLSMIDTH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN *GEBERIT CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *GIVAUDAN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT LIBERUM *MAIRE TECNIMONT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA *METSO OYJ CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *MOTOR OIL HELLAS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS *NESTE OIL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS *OUTOTEC CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *PERNOD RICARD CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT EXANE *SAIPEM CUT TO REDUCE VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX *SYMRISE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT LIBERUM

PT Changes

*SWEDBANK, UBS EXIT CONVICTION LIST OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE *INTESA PT RAISED TO EU1.45 VS EU1.1 AT CITI; KEPT AT SELL *MEDIOBANCA PT RAISED TO EU7.2 VS EU6 AT CITI; KEPT AT BUY *Monte Paschi PT Raised to EU0.19 vs EU0.17 at Citi *Pop. Milano PT Raised to EU0.51 vs EU0.4 at Citi *SARAS PT CUT TO EU1 VS EU1.1 AT UBS; KEPT AT NEUTRAL *UBI PT RAISED TO EU4.7 VS EU3.5 AT CITI; KEPT AT NEUTRAL *UNICREDIT PT RAISED TO EU5.8 VS EU4.25 AT CITI; KEPT AT NEUTRAL

Initiation

*CNH INDUSTRIAL RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE, PT EU8 *DCC RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT 2,493P *DIPLOMA RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT 715P *ENTERTAINMENT ONE RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN; PT 274P *FERRAGAMO RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT UBS; PT EU27 *OSRAM LICHT RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT EU31

Country Sector Stock Call

*POPULAR ADDED TO MACQUARIE CONVICTION LIST UNDERPERFORM *DEUTSCHE BANK ADDED TO MACQUARIE CONVICTION LIST UNDERPERFORM *CREDIT SUISSE ADDED TO CONVICTION LIST OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE *DANSKE, SANTANDER EXIT MACQUARIE CONVICTION LIST UNDERPERFORM *MUNICH RE REMOVED FROM EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST AT JPMORGAN *SEB, BNP ADDED TO CONVICTION LIST OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE *STANDARD LIFE ADDED TO EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST AT JPMORGAN *UNICREDIT EXITS EUROPE BANK CONVICTION PORTFOLIO AT MACQUARIE

>>> Brokers Ups & Downs

Up

*ACCOR RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI *PHILIPS ELECTRONICS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *POLAR CAPITAL RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS *RALLYE RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN *UBI RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE *WHITBREAD RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

Down

*ANDRITZ CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT BAADER *FLSMIDTH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN *GEBERIT CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *GIVAUDAN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT LIBERUM *MAIRE TECNIMONT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA *METSO OYJ CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *MOTOR OIL HELLAS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS *NESTE OIL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT UBS *OUTOTEC CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *SYMRISE CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT LIBERUM

PT Changes

*SWEDBANK, UBS EXIT CONVICTION LIST OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE *INTESA PT RAISED TO EU1.45 VS EU1.1 AT CITI; KEPT AT SELL *MEDIOBANCA PT RAISED TO EU7.2 VS EU6 AT CITI; KEPT AT BUY *Monte Paschi PT Raised to EU0.19 vs EU0.17 at Citi *Pop. Milano PT Raised to EU0.51 vs EU0.4 at Citi *SARAS PT CUT TO EU1 VS EU1.1 AT UBS; KEPT AT NEUTRAL *UBI PT RAISED TO EU4.7 VS EU3.5 AT CITI; KEPT AT NEUTRAL *UNICREDIT PT RAISED TO EU5.8 VS EU4.25 AT CITI; KEPT AT NEUTRAL

Initiation

*CNH INDUSTRIAL RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT MACQUARIE, PT EU8 *DCC RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT 2,493P *DIPLOMA RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT 715P *ENTERTAINMENT ONE RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN; PT 274P *FERRAGAMO RATED NEW NEUTRAL AT UBS; PT EU27 *OSRAM LICHT RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT EU31

Country Sector Stock Call

*POPULAR ADDED TO MACQUARIE CONVICTION LIST UNDERPERFORM *DEUTSCHE BANK ADDED TO MACQUARIE CONVICTION LIST UNDERPERFORM *CREDIT SUISSE ADDED TO CONVICTION LIST OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE *DANSKE, SANTANDER EXIT MACQUARIE CONVICTION LIST UNDERPERFORM *MUNICH RE REMOVED FROM EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST AT JPMORGAN *SEB, BNP ADDED TO CONVICTION LIST OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE *STANDARD LIFE ADDED TO EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST AT JPMORGAN *UNICREDIT EXITS EUROPE BANK CONVICTION PORTFOLIO AT MACQUARIE