{CS FP Equity ALV GY Equity GRT D <GO>}* Axa- Q1 life sales disappointed due to lower sales of protection and health products but the company guided that it is still expecting growth for the FY.- P&C revenues growing by 3% and life new business margin rising to 33% from 32%.- It has been oversold this year, following its very strong share price performance last year, mainly on exaggerated concerns about its exposure to falling US and European interest rates.- It offers good growth at an attractive price and that its Asian franchise is undervalued in particular.- CS has tested strong support on 17.20 levels, downside is limited to 16.88/90, first resitance on 200d MA @ 17.74, if closed higher could quickly test the 18.33* Allianz- Allianz is reporting full result tomorrow- Allianz released strong Q1 headline numbers on May 7th apparently mainly due to strong P&C results, but it looks as if Pimco is stillunder considerable pressure.- The key missing number is outflows at Pimco. Morningstar estimates that Pimco had some $15bn of outflows in Q1 with another $5.5bn in April.
- Pimco remains under pressure, with earnings likely to be down some 24%, causing group operating profit to fall by 3%.- Limited growth potential in its insurance operations, low growth markets with significant exposure to low German yields.- The risks of being Short ALV is a continued fall in US bond yields, which might help Pimco’s performance, and stronger than expected growth in its insurance operation.- On the chart basis upside potential is 2.6% up to 125.20, still a gap open lower 114.18/114.38...the 117.25 is a first support before testing lower levelsBUY CS SELL ALV- the spread is trading on 10 month low levels...I expect a quick 4% on the spread.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AU -1.9%, ABX -0.9%, GOLD -0.9%, RIO -0.8%, SLV -0.6%, GDX -0.5%, GLD -0.5%.
A few financials are modestly lower: ING -1.7%, BCS -1.6%, NBG -1.4%
India related names showing early weakness: IBN -2.2%, TTM -1.3%, HDB -1.1%.
Other news: BIOF -19.9% (received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Staff; continued listing of its securities is no longer warranted), OKS -4.3% (announces public offering of 11 million of its common units ), XNPT -3% (Clinton Group Distributes Presentation to XenoPort Stockholders; says 'XenoPort's capital allocation and performance continues, in our view, to destroy stockholder value'), CX -2.4% (disclosed that Lorenzo Zambrano has passed away), NRF -2.2% (announces public offering of 30 mln shares of common stock; announces pricing of public offering of $225 million of its 8.75% Series E preferred stock with a liquidation preference of $25 per share), EXAM -2% (announces commencement of public offering of 3,096,274 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders), VOD -1.6% (still checking), AR -1.5% (announces secondary offering of 10 mln shares Common Stock by Antero Resources Investment)
Analyst comments: CKEC -2.5% (downgraded to Hold at Topeka Capital Markets), BHI -0.9% ( downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein ), DEI -0.5% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo)
M&A news: DTV +3.8% (ongoing AT&T (T) deal speculation; reports out indicate may be announced within two weeks and bid near $100/share), AZN +1.5% (Pfizer announces presentation: Possible offer for AstraZeneca represents compelling shareholder value; Bloomberg discusses that Pfizer may increase bid for AZN above current $84/share offer), AGN +1.4% (Valeant Pharma responds to Allergan's rejection of merger proposal; believe that offer is substantially superior to an Allergan 'go it alone' strategy).
Select miners stocks trading higher: BBL +1.6%, MT +0.8%, BHP +0.6%.
Social media related names showing strength: YELP +1.3%, SINA +0.8%, TWTR +0.6%, FB +0.5% (Facebook considering China sales office, according to reports).
Other news: GMCR +5.4% (Coca-Cola files amended SC13D disclosing increased ownership of up to 16.0% stake), CSUN +3.5% (raises Q1 total shipment guidance to be above 140MW from prior range of 130MW-140MW; reiterates Q1 gross margin to remain mid-single digit ), GSK +3.1% (China plans to brief media on probe, according to reports ), PLUG +2.6% (ahead of Wedbush conference), NBS+2% (announces licensing agreement and plans to begin Phase 2 Hepatocellular Carcinoma Trial in China; up to $30 mln of license fees could be received by the co over the life of the agreement), ALU +1.7% (still checking), WDAY +1.5% (following positive MadMoney mention), HLF +1.2% (still checking), XOXO +1.1% (Becker Drapkin confirms stake in 13D filing; intends to engage company and may nominate or recommend candidates to serve on the Board), TWTR +1.1% (still checking), WY +0.9% (announces intention to split-off Weyerhaeuser Real Estate Company), VE +0.9% (still checking), BTU +0.7% (extends Chairman and CEO employment term to implement next phase in executive succession planning process ), HOT +0.6% and MAR +0.5% (following positive MadMoney mention), CXO+0.5% (announces upsizing and pricing of 6.5 mln share common stock offering at $129.00 per share).
Analyst comments: UBNT +1.7% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James ), BPI +1.3% ( upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank ), TWX +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein), QGEN +0.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at HSBC Securities)
- Co reported Time charter equivalent (TCE) rate of $17,337/day, above last year's rate of $16,203/day. Daily vessel operating expenses were reported at $8,598/day, below last year's rate of $8,987/day.
The co has declared a cash dividend on its common stock of $0.05 per share, down from the prior dividend of $0.15/share, with respect to the first quarter of 2014. The cash dividend will be payable on or around June 11, 2014 to all shareholders of record as at May 28, 2014. The Company has 36,505,605 shares of common stock outstanding.
"After carefully considering the current containership charter market and vessel acquisition opportunities, management believes the Board's decision to reduce the cash dividend payable with respect to the first quarter is in the best interests of the Company and its shareholders and is consistent with the long-term strategy of maintaining a strong balance sheet and pursuing attractive vessel purchase opportunities as they arise."
"In taking this action, the Co expects to deploy its available cash to purchase additional containership vessels at currently attractive prices that will further enhance the Co's position to capitalize on the eventual recovery in the container market. The Co believes this action enhances long-term shareholder value and will evaluate future dividend decisions in light of then prevailing market conditions."
Gapping down: BIOF -19.9%, RDEN -15.8%, CALL -13.3%, OESX -13.1%, OKS -4.3%, MNGA -2.9%, CFI -2.5%, NRF -2.2%, RICK -2.2%, EXAM -2%, ARNA -2%, VOD -1.6%, AR -1.5%, HASI -1.5%, LMNS -1.3%, ONTX -1.3%, DQ -0.7%
Special Situations: Carrefour (CA FP)trade action flash – raising target to Eur 40+ and still a BUY
CA FP: EUR 26.5; target: Eur 40+
May 9, 2014
We have been bullish on Carrefour since early 2012 on the assets values, and particularly on the restructuring potential brought about by the new CEO, Georges Plassat, that came on board in May 2012. At the time, the market yawned and it took a number of non-core disposals for the stock to start to move up. A couple weeks ago, the Motier family – descendants of the Galeries Lafayette department stores founders, announced they had acquired in the market a 6.1% stake in the company, thus bringing credibility to the long term turnaround of Carrefour. Bernard Arnault remains the largest shareholder through two holding companies owning 8.6% of the capital, while Colony owns 5.7%. Although the shares are up significantly from our initial recommendation, we remain very positive and increase our target from 35 to 40+. The asset story is still there and is being confirmed at each disposal or deal. The turnaround at the core French operations seems to proceed satisfactorily and could bring an even higher valuation. Thus the risk could be on the upside rather than the downside. The stock has corrected from a recent high of near 29 to almost 26 on no real material news. We consider the current correction in the stock as an excellent opportunity to increase/initiate exposures to this investment.
As an aside trade, we also recommend to short the Casino French stub – going short Casino and long Pao Acucar (PCAR4 BZ) and Mercyalis (MERY FP) pro-rata of the capital structure. Casino owns 65% of the share capital of Pao de Acucar and 50% of Mercyalis. These two listed assets account for Eur 4.5bn, thus valuing the French supermarket business on 5.6bn (Casino’s total market cap is 10.1bn). We calculate that this French business is being implicitly valued on a EV of 0.74 for operating margins of 3.5%. This would make it one of the most overvalued food retailing stocks. We note that both Pao Acucar and Mercyalis are undervalued. The trade is roughly long 10 PCAR4, long 5 MERY FP / short 10 CO FP.
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
2014-05-13 05:00:00.15 GMT
By Brendan Case and Ben Bain
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Lorenzo Zambrano, who built Cemex SAB
into the biggest cement producer in the Americas with a two-
decade, $29 billion buying spree and then saw the Mexican
company flirt with default, has died at 70.
Zambrano died of natural causes in Madrid yesterday, a
spokesman, Francisco Lebrija, said by telephone. Cemex’s board
will meet in the coming days, and business operations are
continuing normally, the Monterrey, Mexico-based company said in
a filing.
Acquisitions and international expansion marked Zambrano’s
career as chief executive officer starting in 1985, capped by
the $14.2 billion purchase of Rinker Group Ltd. in 2007 just as
the U.S. housing market was collapsing. The growth proved
unsustainable and in 2009, Cemex almost defaulted on $21.7
billion in debt and had to accept lenders’ terms that included a
halt to the company’s dealmaking.
“He did great things for Mexico and he put Cemex on the
map as one of the major companies in the country,” Luis Maizel,
who manages about $5.4 billion in assets including Cemex bonds
as president of San Diego-based LM Capital Group LLC, said in a
telephone interview. “But at the same time, I think he did not
measure his risks carefully and embarked, especially with the
Rinker acquisition, on a little bit of a folly to prove that he
could do it. And they overpaid.”
Succession Process
Zambrano, who has served as Cemex’s chairman since 1995,
was the longest-tenured CEO at a major Mexican industrial
company and one of the country’s most prominent business
leaders. Tributes immediately began pouring in from political
leaders including President Enrique Pena Nieto as well as
investors and analysts.
“Mexico has lost an extraordinary businessman and a great
Mexican,” Finance Minister Luis Videgaray said in a message
posted on his Twitter account.
Zambrano served as a director at many companies, and was on
boards including that of International Business Machines Corp.
at the time of his death. Past board memberships include Grupo
Televisa SAB, Alfa SAB, Vitro SAB, Fomento Economico Mexicano
SAB and Citigroup Inc.’s Banamex unit, Cemex said in a
statement.
With no chief operating officer or publicly anointed
successor, Cemex’s board will turn to the task of replacing a
CEO whose stint at the helm spanned six Mexican presidential
administrations and the 1994 North American Free Trade
Agreement. The company, with more than 43,000 employees,
operates in 50 countries.
Company Meeting
Zambrano was in Madrid for a company meeting, Lebrija said
yesterday. Mexico City-based daily Reforma reported yesterday on
its website that Zambrano died of a heart attack in his hotel
room, without saying how it obtained the information.
Senior management at the 108-year-old cement maker includes
Chief Financial Officer Fernando Gonzalez and six presidents for
regions such as the U.S., Mexico and Northern Europe, according
to data compiled by Bloomberg. Francisco Garza is an adviser to
the CEO on institutional relations.
While Cemex probably has a strategy to continue operations,
“there is likely to be a certain amount of volatility” in the
shares due to Zambrano’s death, according to Fernando Bolanos, a
Monex Casa de Bolsa analyst who has a hold recommendation on the
shares.
Cemex has advanced 12 percent this year, the fifth-biggest
gain on Mexico’s benchmark IPC index of 35 stocks, bolstered by
a global building rebound. First-quarter sales rose 8.2 percent
to $3.59 billion as cement volumes rose in all its regional
markets. Shares rose 1.4 percent yesterday to 16.50 pesos in
Mexico City before the company announced Zambrano’s death.
String of Losses
Strengthening operations in the U.S. and Mexico will
bolster 2014 earnings, Zambrano said at a March press conference
in Monterrey before Cemex’s annual meeting. The company has
posted 18 consecutive quarterly losses following the global
economic downturn and U.S. housing bust.
“As the world economy recovers, Cemex will recover,”
Carlos Legaspy, who oversees about $350 million in emerging-
market debt at InSight Securities Inc., said in a telephone
interview from Chicago. Cemex was Mexico’s first truly
multinational corporation, he said.
Zambrano was born on March 27, 1944, in Monterrey, Mexico,
according to Marquis Who’s Who. In 1968 he earned a master of
business administration degree from Stanford University in
California, and joined Cemex that year. He has been involved in
all aspects of the company’s business and became director of
operations in 1981, according to Cemex. He was not married.
Pizzas, Ferraris
Known as a technology enthusiast, he had long been able to
monitor production details on dozens of Cemex plants around the
world -- down to the temperature of a cement kiln -- through a
laptop. He studied pizza chains and emergency call centers to
learn how to make delivery times for ready-mix concrete more
reliable.
Zambrano was also a top collector of Ferrari cars, with
antiques from the 1950s and 1960s, and would race them at Pebble
Beach, California, according to a Stanford business school
profile.
As the grandson of the 108-year-old company’s founder, he
was determined to leave a lasting legacy following his
leadership of the company.
“The true measure of a business leader,” he said in the
Stanford article, “is if the company lasts through time.”
For Related News and Information:
Cemex Says Debt Terms Create ‘Nightmares’ of Missing Mergers
NSN L418D70D9L35 <GO>
Cemex Gains Amid Talks on Extending 2009 Loan Agreement
NSN M66WCC6VDKHS <GO>
Cemex Holders See Higher Rating as Housing Gains: Mexico Credit
NSN MJNUMF6TTDU5 <GO>
Cemex Extends $14.2 Billion Offer for Rinker Group
NSN JK0B0E1A1I4H <GO>
--With assistance from Charles W. Stevens in New York, Patricia
Laya, Adam Williams and Jonathan Roeder in Mexico City and
Thomas Black in Dallas.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Brendan Case in Mexico City at +52-55-5242-9284 or
bcase4@bloomberg.net;
Ben Bain in Mexico City at +52-55-5242-9256 or
bbain2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Ed Dufner at +1-214-954-9453 or
edufner@bloomberg.net
Jonathan Roeder, Stephen West