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- Debt ratios suggest we cannot rule out a new crisis. Market liquidity points to new asset bubbles. Financial markets have almost excessive confidence.

>>> Allergan, Inc Pershing Square Calls for Allergan Board to Engage with Valean

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Fwd:>>> Buy Remy Cointreau / Sell LVMH - Weak Q1 was expected, g

Pair is up 2.8% today and we are making 9.7% perf since set up. I will cut the balance of the position today.

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 28 2014 09:52:43

Pair is starting to perform +3.69%, still believe there is more potential on this one, started to see some flows out of LVMH after seeing few investors jumping in onthe last few weeks playing the fact that MC will be one of the best peformers in eartning Season, but Reassuring numbers form Kering pushed some re-allocation in the sector.


----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 22 2014 16:04:37

Follow-Up

Still believe in this trade, RCO weak on -ve article in FT, stock is down on the day, LVMH better.

I will wait to add some more

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 10:57:05

{RCO FP Equity MC FP Equity GRT D}

* Remy Cointreau (RCO FP) - Buy
- Q4 Sales a 3% miss, Cognac still weak, we could see some more dwg to consensus EPS, but pfr story is not there anymore.
- Valuation still not cheap regarding the Cognac business but not too far from historical premium the stock is trading with the sector
- RCO is highly correlated to Luxury trend in China and most of dwg has been done
- Few weeks ago M&A rumors re-surface with a blog mentionning Brown& Forman was looking to the company, this blog was mentioning a €85/share minimum price on any deal to get the family to table.
- 55/56 appears to be a strong support.

* LVMH (MC FP) - Sell
- Numbers were published on the 9th of April, the analysis fo numbers show us that we continue to see a down trend in volume that has been so far compensated by price increase, main point of the strategy remained of potential of price increase and maintain margin.
- Stock is trading not far from historical highs (3.5%) and even if we can test this level I don't expect a major break up


Buy Remy Cointreau Sell LVMH - expecting MC to not really move and RCO to go back to the 70's levels

Laurent

Fwd:>>> Buy Marks& Spencer Sell Ahold - Follow Up on trade idea

The spread is up another 2% today, the strategy is up 6.15% net since set up I will take profit on half of what is left and will keep the balance because looks like there is some more upside...I put a stop on the last part of the trade at 5% perf ie 32.46 on the ratio.

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 25 2014 10:49:16

Spread is up 4.9% since recommendation - I will take profit on half of the position.
Laurent

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 22 2014 15:58:58

The spread is +4% since we set up on thursday....continue to think that there is some decent potential on this one.

we initiated @ 30.90 (Ratio), trading now @ 32.15 (4% higher), will start to unwind @ 34 (+10%)

Laurent

----- Original Message -----
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN ()
At: Apr 17 2014 12:22:05

{MKS LN Equity AH NA Equity GRT D <GO>}

* Marks & Spencer
- Company pulished on the 10/04 and was weak because of misunderstanding on Q4 Gross Margin Weakness, Company is expected to publish FY on the 20th of May...but numbers have been adjusted now
- M&S generak merchamfise should continue to head in the good direction, food is quite isolated from a branded food price war
- Strong execution from management and potential cash return could help the stock to rebound
- Historically MKS is trading with a 20% to UK Market P/E, trading only with 5% now

* Ahold
- Since Last publication on 27th of Feb stock outperformed the SXRP by 7%, publication can justify that move but there is no clear reason on fumdamentals
- weak LFL sales growth in the US (-2.1%) and in the Netherlands (-1.0%),
- Risk of stiffer competition and margin rebasing in the Dutch market (more powerful competitors, with in particular Jumbo)
- Still no real signs of pick-up in volumes or food inflation in the US
- It looks fully valued to us – trading at a 2014e P/E ratio of 13.7x vs 12.8x for peers

* The spread is trading on bery low historical levels - we can see a quick reversal, historical lows (-3.3% / 29.86 )
MKS 410 levels appear to be a strong support, stock can trade quickly to 460/470 levles
AH : 14 levels are a strong resistance, could see stock trading back on support 200d MA on 13 levels

BUY MKS SELL AHOLD