(ZH) The Last 3 Times This Happened, Markets Turmoiled (Last December

I just resend this article because The Skew is very close from the 140 levels....last time in December nothing really happened so not sure it make sens but worth noting it and keeping an eye on it...for me ( I am not a derivative specialsit) but if Skew going higher means either Equities Investors are buying some Put or derivatives guys are selling some vol on calls...

I will monitor this index just to see if like last month nothing happened or if like mentionned in ZeroHedge article below we will see a big move...ZH is always quite bearish so lose a bit of impact...

Original Message From: LAURENT CHEKROUN () At: 12/22 19:21:48
The Last 3 Times This Happened, Markets Turmoiled

Thanks to Bob "I don't get out of bed unless it's over 20" Pisani's daily diatribes about VIX (the so-called 'fear' index), we are supposed to rest assured that all is well in the ever-decreasing horizon world of equity markets. However, while VIX measures the expectations of 'normal' day to day moves in stocks, it does not offer any insight into market participants' perspectives on tail risks (or 'the big one'). CBOE's SKEW index does just that, based on the pricing differences between normal and fat-tail risk pricing in the options market, it provides a measure of the market's belief in extreme events... and for only the 4th time in history, it's flashing a big red warning signal of volatility ahead.

The last 3 times this happened... markets went a little crazy...

In 24 years of history, SKEW has been above 140 only 4 times (including the current)... the last 3 times were...

06/21/1990 - S&L Crisis (Stocks dropped 18% in next 3 months and the US entered recession)
10/16/1998 - Russian Default and LTCM (Stocks soared 22% in the next 3 months and the dot-com bubble was born)
03/16/2006 - Housing Bubble peak (Stock dropped 6% in next 3 months and the 'great recession' started within a year)
And now?

12/20/2013... Taper...

(Citi) Vivendi

Entering the Endgame; Tension Between SOTP and EPS

*What's Changing in This Report? 
We reduce our 2014-15E EPS by 13-17% driven by a combination of weaker u/l trends (mobile at SFR), FX (in particular Yen and Real at UMG/GVT) and investment (content costs at C+; Watchever in Germany). Despite the move down in EPS, we increase our SOTP-based PT to €19.8 as we remove the holding discount. We stay Neutral on Vivendi.

*Entering the End Game 
The Strategic Review is due to come to a head by the end of 1H14. By that stage, SFR is set to be de-merged, leaving Vivendi a much smaller and more focused asset centred on Universal Music (40% of Vivendi Media revenues), Canal+ (44% of revenues) and GVT (16% of revenues). The precise level of gearing is unknown, but based on SFR keeping an investment-grade rating, we assume the rump media asset will be left with around €2bn of debt.

*First, the Good News… 
We see three sources of potential upside: (1) a better rating on SFR, which could benefit from market repair; with each EBITDA multiple point worth €2.5bn (c. €1.9 per VIV share), on our estimates, the gearing to this is significant; (2) non-telco M&A, in particular scope to liquidate the ATVI stake (worth c. €1.1bn) or GVT (worth c. €5.5bn), proceeds from which could fund accretive cash usage; (3) better growth (and with it a better multiple) for the core media assets.

*…But the Story Is Very Dependent on Asset Sales Completing
The benefit of market repair in France will only be fully realized post demerger. Furthermore, the competitive landscape in Brazil is in flux and a clean exit from GVT is far from guaranteed. Finally, the rump generates c. €12bn of PF revenue and c. €2.5bn of PF EBITDA, but only c. €500m of FCF. This not only implies a very low ongoing FCF yield (barely 3% ex SFR at 5.5x 2014E EV/EBITDA) but calls into question the dividend, which at c.€1.3bn p.a. would not be covered, on our estimates.

*Downgrading EPS by c.13-17% but Staying Neutral 
Ex any holding discount we can justify the current share price and raise our PT accordingly. We see two key issues for investors: (1) many investors assume that GVT will be disposed of but there is uncertainty on this point and running GVT is much less preferable to a clean sale, in our view. (2) All of the analysis above assumes no further deterioration in u/l EPS momentum, which we think may be optimistic.

(BFW) SAP’s Plattner Says Chinese Sought His Stake in 2012, Focus Says

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SAP’s Plattner Says Chinese Sought His Stake in 2012, Focus Says 2014-01-20 08:04:31.139 GMT

By Claudia Rach Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese investors asked about one and a half years ago whether SAP Chairman Hasso Plattner would be willing to sell his stake in the co., Focus says, citing Plattner. * Plattner is SAP biggest single stakeholder, holding 9.8%: Bloomberg data * Article in German: http://tinyurl.com/q3xwrkx * Next catalyst: Full 4Q, FY results scheduled to be released tomorrow; SAP pre-released Jan. 10, reporting 4Q non-IFRS software sales, op. profit in line, meeting own 2013 target * Holds investor meeting Feb. 4 * NOTE: SAP down 2.5% YTD; was up 2.7% in 2013 vs DAX up 25% vs SX8P up 27% * NOTE: 45 analyst ratings: 67% buy, 27% hold, 7% sell; avg. PT EU66.2: Bloomberg data

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Rach in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6219 or crach1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

(GS) Strategy Matters : Q4 2013 Earnings Season

Between now and the end of March, 491 companies, representing 82% of the STOXX Europe 600, will report their annual results. Since the end of the last earnings season, consensus estimates have been revised down substantially while the level of economic activity has remained broadly stable. In contrast, we expect results to mark an improvement compared to the third quarter. We continue to expect European earnings growth to reach 14% in 2014 as economic growth accelerates, and think this will be the main driver of equity returns.

* Exposure has been a key factor explaining negative revisions
Since the beginning of the year, 2013 earnings have been revised down by close to 15%. This has mostly been driven by lower net income margins. The dispersion of sector revisions has been particularly low while exposure has been a key factor differentiating earnings momentum. Our UK domestic exposure basket has seen positive revisions while EM industrials are down 26%.

* We expect a small improvement this season
Looking at the different factors influencing earnings season (revisions, economic activity and currency) we expect the season to be an improvement in terms of earnings surprises compared to the third quarter. However, this is mostly driven by substantially lower expectations coming into the season rather than an improved economic environment or more favourable FX evolution. Looking out to 2014, we expect earnings growth to reach 14% as global growth accelerates. We forecast an EPS level of 24.9 for the STOXX Europe 600.

>>> Algeta ASA Bayer commences voluntary cash offer to acquire the entire issued

Algeta ASA Bayer commences voluntary cash offer to acquire the entire issued share capital of Algeta for NOK362/shr (total deal value NOK17.6B) as recommended in Dec 2013
- The Offer period starts on 20 January, 2014 and expires at 9:00am CET on 24 February, 2014. Bayer has obtained pre-acceptances for approximately 14% of the shares in Algeta, including pre-acceptances from all members of Algeta's Board of Directors, certain senior managers as well as from Algeta's largest shareholder, HealthCap IV.
- The consummation of the Offer remains subject to satisfaction or waiver of customary conditions, including a minimum acceptance of at least 90% or such lower percentage (not being less than 50%) of the outstanding Algeta shares as Aviator Acquisition AS determines and no material adverse change having occurred in Algeta. The German Federal Cartel Office's clearance of Bayer's acquisition of Algeta was announced on 6 January, 2014. No further antitrust approvals are required.
- As set forth in the Offer document, the Offer period is scheduled to expire on 24 February, 2014 and may be extended, at any time and on one or several times, provided however, that the maximum Offer period may not exceed 10 weeks. Bayer expects to close the transaction during the first quarter of 2014.

(BFW) BSkyB, Vodafone Mobile Merger Could Bring Big Savings, UBS Says

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BSkyB, Vodafone Mobile Merger Could Bring Big Savings, UBS Says 2014-01-20 07:24:55.440 GMT

By Blanche Gatt Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- BSkyB, Vodafone talks, as reported in the Sunday Times yday, may mean cos seek to market a joint quad-play product before BT starts its mobile service later in the year, UBS says in note. * UBS says BSkyB, Vodafone could “take this a step further and announce a merger” * Sees merger of BSkyB/Vodafone U.K. yielding “significant” cost/revenue synergies * Alternative scenario would be Vodafone merger with Sky Europe to form pan-European quad-play operator: UBS * Says BSkyB trading still resilient amid BT Sport competition * Both BSkyB and BT will seek to avoid a “bruising encounter” at the Premier League rights auction * Sees both sides agreeing wholesale deal on sports during 2014, most likely after May 2014 * NOTE Jan. 16: BSkyB Faces Most Competitive Premier League Auction Ever: CS

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Blanche Gatt in London at +44-20-7392-0351 or bgatt@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades

>>> Up
*AVEVA RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*CENTRICA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*DRAGON OIL RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFAML
*HARGREAVES LANSDOWN RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*HERMES RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*INDRA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*K+S RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*LUXOTTICA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*NOBEL BIOCARE RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Down
*AIR FRANCE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*ALLIANZ CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*BURBERRY CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*LANXESS CUT TO REDUCE VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*PERNOD-RICARD CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT EXANE
*SAFILO CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SPECTRIS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*SSE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC


>>> PT Change
*K+S PT RAISED TO EU30 VS EU24 AT MACQUARIE, STAYS OUTPERFORM

>>> Initiation
*DASSAULT SYSTEMES RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN; PT EU110

>>> Call
>> Stock
*LUFTHANSA ADDDED TO UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST

>>> What to look at today - 20/01/2014

US market is closed today : Martin Luther King Day
US market closed mixed with Dow higher and S&P & Nasdaq Loewer...Flow where on the light side with 729mil shares...Intersting to note tha SKEW is trading close to high 140 mark @ 139,62 +2,76%...China Q4 GDP slightly better than expected at 7.7%, but 2013 GDP at 7.7% - inline with ests - still marks a 14-year low. Industrial production slows to a 5-month low, while consumption is in line. Lending rates are up sharply in China,
in part due to diminished expectations of more easing from PBoC amid "steady"economic transition. Seasonality ahead of the new year holidays also keeping borrowing rates elevated...Japan final industrial production registers first decline in 3 months; Separately in Japan, the election of Nago city mayor may jeopardize PM Abe's plans to shift US air force base in Okinawa. Nikkei-0,59% Shanghai -0,69%

Eur$ 1,3540 S&P FUt-0,04% European Fut -0,20% Dax Fut -0,30% (DBK helping it)

Keep an ey on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Buys Oriental Brewery Back From KKR for $5.8b
- ALFA SS : Alfa Laval open to French acquisitions
- ALT FP : Altran CEO Salle Sees Improved Growth in 2014: France Info
- AREVA FP : Areva Studies Possible Sale of Namibian Water-Desalination Plant
- BC IM : Cucinelli a Must-Have Stock for the Long Term, Mediobanca Says
- ALCAR FP : Carmat Artificial Heart Patient Survives Critical Month: JDD
- CLS1 GY : McKesson cuts stake in Celesio to 0.50%
- COL SM : Colonial Says Brookfield Made Offer for Debt, Capital Increase
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank 4Q Pretax Loss EU1.15b, Est. EU628.5m Profit --> indicated -3,4% in pre market
- GBF GY : Bilfinger could make large acquisition this year
- JMT PL : Barron's +ve article on Jernimo, Even with the margin-pinching investment needed to ride out a competitive market in Poland, companyhas lots of room to grow.
- KER FP : La Redoute to see EUR 315m infusion from Kering ahead of sale
- MRW LN : U.K.’s Morrison’s Treasurer in Insider-Trading Probe: Telegraph
- MRW LN : Sandell build a position on the company, holding less than 3%
- RR/ LN : SFO Gets Rolls-Royce Bribery Allegations Probe Funds Boost: FT
- SAS SS : SAS Says Copenhagen Will Remain Main Hub, Sydsvenskan Reports
- STRS IT : Strauss Advances on Report of Plans for Coffee Unit IPO (TPG stake 29,6%)
- STS IM : Ansaldo Energia Received Expressions of Interest, Corriere Says
- TNET BB : Telenet interested in De Vijver Media
- UG FP : Dongfeng Motor Falls After Peugeot Said to Decide on Funds
- UG FP : French Ministers Say PSA Peugeot Citroen Will Remain French
- VOD LN : Vodafone, BSkyB Hold Talks on Broadband Deals: Sunday Times
- VOW3 GY : VW Will Reach Truck-Unit Target Earlier Than Expected, FAZ Says
- WIN GY : Wincor Nixdorf 1Q Rev. Misses; Ebita in Line; Reiterates Forecast

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: China GDP slightly higher than expected while industrial output slows as liquidity tightens

***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA DEC NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 66 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.8% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 7.7% V 7.6%E; 2013 GDP: 7.7% V 7.7%E (14-year low) - (CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 9.7% (5-month low) V 9.8%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD: 9.7% V 9.7%E - (CN) CHINA DEC RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 13.6% V 13.6%E; RETAIL SALES YTD: 13.1% V 13.1%E - (CN) CHINA YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS: 19.6% V 19.8%E (multi-year low) - (CN) CHINA Q4 BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX: 119.5 V 121.5 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN NOV FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.1% (3-month low) V +0.1% PRELIM; Y/Y: 4.8% V 5.0% PRELIM; CAPACITY UTILIZATION M/M: -0.5% V +1.2% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.7% (4-year high) V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.7% (5-month high) V 2.4% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 WESTPAC EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX: 103.4 V 102.8 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND REINZ NOV HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 3,847 V 3,885 PRIOR; M/M: -1.0% V 1.2% PRIOR; HOUSE SALES Y/Y: -1.1% V -6.6% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.9% PRIOR (smallest decline in 15 months) - (UK) UK JAN RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: +1.0% (record increase for Jan) V -1.9% PRIOR; Y/Y: 6.3% (largest increase since Nov 2007) V 5.4% PRIOR

***Observations/Insights*** - China property prices slow in December - m/m increase is 0.4% in all-70 cities v 0.5% prior while y/y increase matches prior month's record high of 9.9%. - China Q4 GDP slightly better than expected at 7.7%, but 2013 GDP at 7.7% - in line with ests - still marks a 14-year low. Industrial production slows to a 5-month low, while consumption is in line. Lending rates are up sharply in China, in part due to diminished expectations of more easing from PBoC amid "steady" economic transition. Seasonality ahead of the new year holidays also keeping borrowing rates elevated. - Japan final industrial production registers first decline in 3 months; Separately in Japan, the election of Nago city mayor may jeopardize PM Abe's plans to shift US air force base in Okinawa. - New Zealand reports 6.3 magnitude earthquake, briefly sending Kiwi dollar lower. - Deutsche Bank released prelim Q4 pretax loss following Friday press speculation of lower guidance, acknowledging material charges of €623M on Credit Valuation Adjustment.

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.8880% v 2.8170% prior (5th consecutive rise, highest since Dec 25th); 1-week: 6.3290% v 4.7760% prior (3rd consecutive rise, highest since Dec 20th) - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr and ¥400B in JGB with maturities of 5-10 yr - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,029.2 tonnes from 9,894 tonnes (first rise since Nov 17th, highest level since Dec 24th) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 7.5 tonnes to 797.1 tonnes (first rise since Dec 21st)

- Fluctuations in USD majors are tracking the volatility in equities following the release of economic data in China. Early in the day, AUD/USD hit 3 1/2 year lows below $0.8760, then rose above the $0.88 handle after a raft if China datapoints before paring those gains. NZD/USD saw an abrupt decline of over 30pips to $0.8230 on reports of a magnitude 6.3 earthquake off the coast of New Zealand. USD/JPY tested the downside of the ¥104 handle for its third consecutive session of modest losses, while EUR/USD traded in a 30-pip range, supported by $1.35 handle as well as a well-defined trendline going back to May of 2013.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): $1.1T spending bill passed by US Congress last week clashes with fair trade - financial press - (CN) Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center: Air condition is moderately polluted with PM2.5 level of 229.2 - (CN) Former PBoC adviser Li Daokui: Sees China 2013 GDP at 7.7% vs 7.5% official target; Sees China GDP at 7-8% range for the following 10 years - Chinese press - (CN) Beijing Mayor Wang Anshun: Important to control air pollution in Beijing; Promises to the central govt that Beijing will improve air quality by 2017 - Chinese press - (CN) China State Council issues "the No.1 central document" to support agricultural development: To improve food security, seek sustainable agricultural growth, deepen rural land reforms, and promote fiscal support for rural areas - (CN) China Navy said to be building its second aircraft carrier - Chinese press - (JP) The mayor of Japan's Nago city, Susumu Inamune, wins 2nd term in Sunday's elections - press - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Plan to relocate US base in Okinawa remains unchanged; Disappointed with Nago mayoral outcome - (JP) Japan PM Abe said to make the decision on whether to continue raising sales tax to 10% over the course of 2014 - NHK interview - (JP) BOJ to maintain FY15 target for beating deflation - Kyodo News - (KR) South Korea financial regulators confirm data leaks for at least 20M bank and credit card users in S Korea - press - (NZ) Magnitude 6.3 earthquake reported in Wellington, New Zealand

**Europe** - (IT) Italy's DP party leader Renzi and former PM Berlusconi reach agreement on political reform that will make Italy more governable - press

***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.5%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Mar S&P500 flat at 1,834, Feb gold +1.2% at $1,254, Feb crude oil -0.3% at $93.67/brl

Notable movers by sector in Asia: - Consumer Discretionary: Yongsheng Advanced Materials 3608.HK +5.0% (positive profit alert); Meike International Holdings -7.6% (profit warning) - Consumer staples: Kweichow Moutai 600519.CN +4.6% (FY13 results) - Financials: Create Technology & Science 000551.CN +5.7% (FY13 guidance); Glorious Property Holdings 845.HK -28.1% (privatization plan rejected) - Materials: Tangshan Jidong Cement +2.1% (FY13 guidance) - Technology: Beijing Ultrapower Software 300002.CN +10.0% (resumes trading; enters strategic alliance with Qihoo); Sunny Optical Technology Group 2382.HK +4.5% (acquires stakes in 3D image company); Jolimark Holdings 2028.HK +14.2% (positive profit alert); Nintendo 7974.JP -9.9% (cuts FY13/14 guidance) - Energy: Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology 002006.CN -3.6% (FY13 guidance); Nucoal Resources NCR.AU +23.8% (announces submission to NSW govt) - Industrials: First Tractor 38.HK +6.2%, Winall Hi-tech Seed 300087.CN +4.1%, Gansu Dunhuang Seed 600354.CN +2.0%, Grand Agriseeds 300189.CN +4.2% (China State Council issues "No.1 central document" on agriculture) - Healthcare: Sinocare Inc 300298.CN -7.5% (FY13 guidance)

**Europe** - DB: Reports prelim Q4 pretax loss €1.2B v profit €300M y/y; Rev €6.6B v €7.9B y/y