Asian Market Update: China GDP slightly higher than expected while industrial output slows as liquidity tightens
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA DEC NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 66 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (CN) CHINA Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.8% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 7.7% V 7.6%E; 2013 GDP: 7.7% V 7.7%E (14-year low) - (CN) CHINA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 9.7% (5-month low) V 9.8%E; INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION YTD: 9.7% V 9.7%E - (CN) CHINA DEC RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 13.6% V 13.6%E; RETAIL SALES YTD: 13.1% V 13.1%E - (CN) CHINA YTD FIXED URBAN ASSETS: 19.6% V 19.8%E (multi-year low) - (CN) CHINA Q4 BUSINESS CLIMATE INDEX: 119.5 V 121.5 PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN NOV FINAL INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -0.1% (3-month low) V +0.1% PRELIM; Y/Y: 4.8% V 5.0% PRELIM; CAPACITY UTILIZATION M/M: -0.5% V +1.2% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.7% (4-year high) V 0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.7% (5-month high) V 2.4% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 WESTPAC EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX: 103.4 V 102.8 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND REINZ NOV HOUSE PRICE INDEX: 3,847 V 3,885 PRIOR; M/M: -1.0% V 1.2% PRIOR; HOUSE SALES Y/Y: -1.1% V -6.6% PRIOR - (KR) SOUTH KOREA DEC PPI M/M: +0.2% v -0.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.4% V -0.9% PRIOR (smallest decline in 15 months) - (UK) UK JAN RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: +1.0% (record increase for Jan) V -1.9% PRIOR; Y/Y: 6.3% (largest increase since Nov 2007) V 5.4% PRIOR
***Observations/Insights*** - China property prices slow in December - m/m increase is 0.4% in all-70 cities v 0.5% prior while y/y increase matches prior month's record high of 9.9%. - China Q4 GDP slightly better than expected at 7.7%, but 2013 GDP at 7.7% - in line with ests - still marks a 14-year low. Industrial production slows to a 5-month low, while consumption is in line. Lending rates are up sharply in China, in part due to diminished expectations of more easing from PBoC amid "steady" economic transition. Seasonality ahead of the new year holidays also keeping borrowing rates elevated. - Japan final industrial production registers first decline in 3 months; Separately in Japan, the election of Nago city mayor may jeopardize PM Abe's plans to shift US air force base in Okinawa. - New Zealand reports 6.3 magnitude earthquake, briefly sending Kiwi dollar lower. - Deutsche Bank released prelim Q4 pretax loss following Friday press speculation of lower guidance, acknowledging material charges of €623M on Credit Valuation Adjustment.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) Daily Shibor fixings: O/N: 3.8880% v 2.8170% prior (5th consecutive rise, highest since Dec 25th); 1-week: 6.3290% v 4.7760% prior (3rd consecutive rise, highest since Dec 20th) - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥110B in JGB with maturity less than 1-yr and ¥400B in JGB with maturities of 5-10 yr - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,029.2 tonnes from 9,894 tonnes (first rise since Nov 17th, highest level since Dec 24th) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 7.5 tonnes to 797.1 tonnes (first rise since Dec 21st)
- Fluctuations in USD majors are tracking the volatility in equities following the release of economic data in China. Early in the day, AUD/USD hit 3 1/2 year lows below $0.8760, then rose above the $0.88 handle after a raft if China datapoints before paring those gains. NZD/USD saw an abrupt decline of over 30pips to $0.8230 on reports of a magnitude 6.3 earthquake off the coast of New Zealand. USD/JPY tested the downside of the ¥104 handle for its third consecutive session of modest losses, while EUR/USD traded in a 30-pip range, supported by $1.35 handle as well as a well-defined trendline going back to May of 2013.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): $1.1T spending bill passed by US Congress last week clashes with fair trade - financial press - (CN) Shanghai Environmental Monitoring Center: Air condition is moderately polluted with PM2.5 level of 229.2 - (CN) Former PBoC adviser Li Daokui: Sees China 2013 GDP at 7.7% vs 7.5% official target; Sees China GDP at 7-8% range for the following 10 years - Chinese press - (CN) Beijing Mayor Wang Anshun: Important to control air pollution in Beijing; Promises to the central govt that Beijing will improve air quality by 2017 - Chinese press - (CN) China State Council issues "the No.1 central document" to support agricultural development: To improve food security, seek sustainable agricultural growth, deepen rural land reforms, and promote fiscal support for rural areas - (CN) China Navy said to be building its second aircraft carrier - Chinese press - (JP) The mayor of Japan's Nago city, Susumu Inamune, wins 2nd term in Sunday's elections - press - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Plan to relocate US base in Okinawa remains unchanged; Disappointed with Nago mayoral outcome - (JP) Japan PM Abe said to make the decision on whether to continue raising sales tax to 10% over the course of 2014 - NHK interview - (JP) BOJ to maintain FY15 target for beating deflation - Kyodo News - (KR) South Korea financial regulators confirm data leaks for at least 20M bank and credit card users in S Korea - press - (NZ) Magnitude 6.3 earthquake reported in Wellington, New Zealand
**Europe** - (IT) Italy's DP party leader Renzi and former PM Berlusconi reach agreement on political reform that will make Italy more governable - press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.5%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite -0.5%, Hang Seng -0.5%, Mar S&P500 flat at 1,834, Feb gold +1.2% at $1,254, Feb crude oil -0.3% at $93.67/brl
Notable movers by sector in Asia: - Consumer Discretionary: Yongsheng Advanced Materials 3608.HK +5.0% (positive profit alert); Meike International Holdings -7.6% (profit warning) - Consumer staples: Kweichow Moutai 600519.CN +4.6% (FY13 results) - Financials: Create Technology & Science 000551.CN +5.7% (FY13 guidance); Glorious Property Holdings 845.HK -28.1% (privatization plan rejected) - Materials: Tangshan Jidong Cement +2.1% (FY13 guidance) - Technology: Beijing Ultrapower Software 300002.CN +10.0% (resumes trading; enters strategic alliance with Qihoo); Sunny Optical Technology Group 2382.HK +4.5% (acquires stakes in 3D image company); Jolimark Holdings 2028.HK +14.2% (positive profit alert); Nintendo 7974.JP -9.9% (cuts FY13/14 guidance) - Energy: Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology 002006.CN -3.6% (FY13 guidance); Nucoal Resources NCR.AU +23.8% (announces submission to NSW govt) - Industrials: First Tractor 38.HK +6.2%, Winall Hi-tech Seed 300087.CN +4.1%, Gansu Dunhuang Seed 600354.CN +2.0%, Grand Agriseeds 300189.CN +4.2% (China State Council issues "No.1 central document" on agriculture) - Healthcare: Sinocare Inc 300298.CN -7.5% (FY13 guidance)
**Europe** - DB: Reports prelim Q4 pretax loss €1.2B v profit €300M y/y; Rev €6.6B v €7.9B y/y