TheChek News Flow

*Yahoo! (YHOO) is set to report Q3 earnings after the close with a conference call to follow at 5pm ET. Capital IQ consensus is calling for non-GAAP EPS of $0.38 on rev ex-tac of $1.20 bln. Investors are getting anxious as Yahoo's core assets are not necessarily a driving factor for the stock's run as the results have sputtered the past few quarters. The biggest driver of the stock has been the valuation of Alibaba which analysts are now projecting to be up to $150-160 bln. But the IPO is being pushed toward 2015 and investors would like to see more production on the organic side and for the recent acquisitions to start boosting performance; AOL, IACI, GOOG.

*AT&T (T) is expected to report Q4 EPS of $0.50 (vs. $0.44 last year) on revenue of $33.1 bln (+1.5% YoY). Looking back at last quarter, the company has a total of 178K in new smartphone additions and over 1 million net subscription additions (versus 1.4 mln growth in the same quarter as last year). Last week, AT&T (T) disclosed information regarding charges that occur in the fourth quarter. T announced it expects to record a noncash, pre-tax gain of ~ $7.6 bln related to actuarial gains and losses on pension and postemployment benefit plans. The options market is currently pricing in a move of ~2% in either direction by weekly expiration (Friday).

*Amgen (AMGN) is scheduled to report Q4 results shortly after the close today. Capital IQ Consensus calls for Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.68 and revenue of $4.82 bln. Co is expected to guide for FY14 adjusted EPS (current estimate $8.14) and revenue (current estimate $19.58 bln) in the release.

*VMware (VMW) is set to report Q4 results tonight after the close at with a conference call to follow at 5:00pm. Current Capital IQ consensus stands at EPS of $1.00, co already preannounced revs of $1.48 bln on Jan 22 (consensus 1.47 bln). Co is expected to guide for 1Q14 and FY14; CTXS, RHT.

*Biogen (BIIB) is scheduled to report Q4 results tomorrow morning before the open, with an estimated release time of 7:15 a.m. ET. Capital IQ Consensus calls for Q4 adjusted EPS of $2.28 per share and revenue of $1.94 bln. Co is expected to guide for FY14 adjusted EPS (current estimate $11.65) and revenue growth (current estimate +21% to $8.36 bln).

*Refiners VLO, PSX and MPC will report tomorrow morning. They have been on a tear, benefiting from the spread between WTI Crude and Brent.

*Boeing (BA) is expected to report Q4 ES of $1.57 (vs. $1.28 last year) on rev of $22.53 bln (+10%). Co has guided. The Street is looking for FY14 non-GAAP EPS of $7.48 on rev of $92.8 bln.

2014 the year of the Horse is a time of fast victories, unexpected adventure, surprising romance, and financial success. Energy is high and production is rewarded. Decisive action, not procrastination, brings success. On a global scale, expect some world economies to become stronger, while others experience economic chaos and collapse. Under Horse's strong influence, there is no middle ground.

Horse is a highly intuitive animal, so people born in Horse year follow their hunches. Their keen judgment and natural intuition often help them make the right decisions throughout their life. Money wise, you have to act fast in a Horse year. But if you are not 100% secure about a financial decision, then don't do it. Events move so fast in a Horse year that you don't want to gallop off in the wrong direction with your financial plans. So follow the information in this report to know when to make a move and when to stay safe.

OFF TO THE RACES

People born in Horse year will tell you what is on their mind; they are frank and dislikes hidden agendas. So this is the time for money issues to be out in the open, especially with family members and elders. The time for secrecy was last year Snake 2013. Now is the time to know exactly who has what financially and what they plan to do with it.

People born in Horse year have a carefree nature and need ample room for self expression. When constrained by rules, proud Horse will rebel, refusing to be corralled or tamed. But if you just do what you want with your finances, you could end up broke at the end of this Horse year! So for some, it might be best to hold tight to what you already have, make steady contributions to savings and retirement funds, and watch the Horse year chaos around you but do not be a big financial player this year.

MONEY AND RISK

Who should be a player and take risks this year? Horse year is very fortunate for all Horses, and for Horse's best friends Tiger, Sheep, and Dog. But the impulsive way of doing things in a Horse year is not the best year for everyone. For example the spontaneous energy of Horse year brings challenges to the thoughtful Rat who is Horse's opposite. And when to act? Only in your lucky months in this dynamic and powerful Horse year.

FINANCIAL REALITY

Instead of big money moves, it might be better in Horse year to build up your resources and maybe experience one big adventure or important travel. Stocks are up so good to hold on to what you have, and not buy when prices are high. Buy low, sell high has more meaning in a Horse year when Horse sense must prevail. You want investments that pay dividends, index funds, and term life insurance. Index funds are favored in Horse year to invest collectively. Movement is closely tracked. Rules of ownership are constant, a good thing in a changeable Horse year. Avoid variable annuities, or any invetment with too many fees. Do not rack up big fees in an impulsive Horse year.

In this Horse year, expect extremes in stock markets, fluctuation of prices, and general chaos in all things financial. There will be wars, battles, and skirmishes all over the world that will influence world economies and investments. In this Horse year, there is not much middle ground because Horse is the exact half way point in the 12 animals zodiac cycle that starts with Rat and ends with Pig. The time for middle-ground diplomacy and planning was last year in Water Snake 2013. Globally, middle class economies are developing with emerging markets in many places including Egypt, Turkey, Brazil, and India. But there will also be protests for fair development, even wars. Peace will be restored in Wood Sheep year 2015, but Wood Horse 2014 will be a wild ride as foreign markets are not secure.

- IBM said to have informally approached several potential buyers including Dell, HPQ, Cisco, Juniper, and Fujitsu but its unclear if any of them are interested. 

Rising risk that German court will block Bundesbank rescue for Southern Europe

Court can force German institutions to withdraw support for EU operations, wrecking market credibility for the ECB's rescue policies

The Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper reports that the verdict has been delayed until April due to the complexity of the case and "intense differences of opinion" among the eight judges.

The longer the case goes on the less likely it is that the court - or Verfassungsgericht - will rubber stamp requests from the German government for a ruling that underpins the agreed bail-out machinery.

"This is potentially very serious, particularly at a time when people are already worried about emerging markets," said one expert close to the case. "We doubt that the Court will ban bond purchases outright but they could demand changes that greatly complicate the picture."

The European Central Bank's back-stop plan for southern Europe - known as the OMT - has never been activated or tested. The mere pledge to do "whatever it takes" was enough to calm the bond markets in July 2012. However, this rhetorical effect works both ways. If markets start to doubt whether the OMT really exists, confidence could evaporate again.

Bank of America says there is a "relatively high" risk that the Court will rule that the OMT is illegal as designed. "The Bundesbank might be prohibited from participating," said the bank's German analyst Tobias Blattner in a report.

While the Verfassungsgericht has no jurisdiction over the ECB, it can force German institutions to withdraw support for EU operations, which amounts to the same thing. The ECB's rescue policies would lose all market credibility instantly without German backing.

Bank of America said the Court is unlikely to pull the plug altogether on the OMT, but a negative ruling would greatly strengthen the position of eurosceptics in Germany and risk a fresh bond sell-off. "Any market reaction will necessarily depend on the details. Even in an extreme scenario we would expect the ECB to calm the markets by announcing alternative tools," it said.

Five expert witnesses argued in public hearings last year that the ECB's bond rescue plan violates the EU's Lisbon Treaty and Germany's Basic Law, or Grundgesetz. Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann testified that the ECB was breaching its own mandate by submitting to a political "conditionality" trigger decided by EU parliaments.

A leaked draft of the Bundesbank's submission to the Court systematically unpicked every line of argument used by the ECB's Mario Draghi to justify the bond plan, concluding that the ECB has no mandate to uphold the “current composition of monetary union” or to "rescue states in crisis”.

The text said the OMT entails the purchase of “bad bonds”, violates ECB independence and entails a high risk of heavy losses in the “not unlikely” event that debtor states are forced out of EMU.

The Frankfurter Rundschau said it would be a "spectacular" reversal of prior rulings if the court agreed to any arrangement that eroded ECB's independence, especially its seminal ruling on the Maastricht Treaty in the 1990s.

While the German Court has at each stage endorsed further steps in EU integration and backed euro bail-out measures, it imposed restrictions that further narrowed Berlin's room for manouvre.

The court authorised the original EMU bail-outs in 2011 but crucially ruled that the budgetary powers of the Bundestag cannot be alienated to any supra-national body, effectively killing off any hope of eurobonds or EMU debt mutualisation.

The judges issued a thundering verdict on the Lisbon Treaty in July 2009, reminding Brussels that the nation states are the “masters of the Treaties” and not the other way round.

It set out limits to EU integration and warned that whole areas of policy – including budgets – “must forever remain German”. In an epic shot across the bows it ruled that Germany must be prepared to “refuse further participation in the European Union” if the drift of EU affairs starts to erode German democracy.

Chief justice Andreas Vosskuhle says Germany has exhausted the scope for further EU integration under German constitutional law. If it wishes to take revolutionary steps towards fiscal union, it must equip itself with a “new constitution”. This would require a referendum.

Markets have assumed all along that the Verfassungsgericht is essentially bluffing, unwilling to do anything that would imperil EMU rescue plans. The latest leaks from Frankfurt and Karlsruhe suggest that caution may be in order.

{http://bit.ly/1edTai7}

The inquiry by the Canadian Competition Bureau is tied, in part, to consumer complaints it has received about the controversial Los Angeles-based diet shake seller, sources familiar with the inquiry said.

The Competition Bureau has also interviewed former Herbalife insiders and distributors who believe the company is a pyramid, sources said.

Once a formal inquiry has started, the CCB can apply for “information gathering orders,” one source said.

The Competition Bureau, which similar scope as the US Federal Trade Commission — except it can bring criminal charges, declined to comment.

Herbalife did not return emails seeking comment sent Monday afternoon. In the past, the company has said it believes it operates legally.

In addition to complaining about Herbalife itself, an unknown number of Canadians have also contacted the regulator and lambasted several distributors for pyramid activities such as making false income claims, sources said.

Those who were the focus of the complaints include former top Herbalife distributor Shawn Dahl and Online Business Systems, an Internet recruiting system run by Dahl to bring people in as Herbalife distributors, these sources added.

It is not known if Dahl or other distributors are the focus of the inquiry as well, sources said. Dahl did not return a call for comment.

“Online Business Systems, also run by Dahl’s wife, Nicole, has taken the place of Global Online Systems, which shut down 10 years ago as the company was criminally convicted in 2004 of breaching the Canadian Competition Act governing multi-level marketing plans and pyramid sales.”

The company’s registered directors and Herbalife distributors, Nicole’s mother, Deborah Stoltz, and her aunt, Marilyn Thom, shut down that company, were ordered to pay a $150,000 fine and were prohibited from engaging in pyramid activities.

Stoltz continued to be a money-making Herbalife distributor, a member of the President’s Club, a title reserved for high-sellers, as recently as 2013, according to Herbalife documents.

Stoltz, just prior to the prohibition order, appears to have helped transition Global Online Systems to Online Business Systems, according to Internet screen shots from both companies’ web sites site at that time that show how the company helped clients move their account from one company to the other.

“It is possible that the current inquiry is believed to be looking at the possible violation of the existing prohibition order, said a source familiar with the investigation, who added that the inquiry is also ‘much broader.’”

The current inquiry is believed to be looking at the possible violation of the existing prohibition order, said a source familiar with the investigation, who added that the inquiry is also “much broader.”

Stoltz and Thom could not be reached.

Under the Dahls, Online Business Systems grew to be much bigger than its shuttered predecessor. It was approved by Herbalife as a so-called business methods company for its distributors, a company memo shows.

The Dahls became the poster couple for Herbalife. The attractive pair appeared on the cover of the company’s magazine, “Herbalife Today,” in 2009, when they reached the coveted Chairman’s Club, a ranking that only the top 50 out of 3.2 million distributors reach.

In videos extolling their upscale Herbalife lifestyle in a suburb of Vancouver, Canada, called White Rock — a picturesque bayside town surrounded by snow-capped mountains — Dahl talked about the inspirational role Nicole’s mother had played in his decision to join Herbalife.

Dahl, years after the Stoltz case, said she was making $30,000 per month when he joined Herbalife — but he made no mention of her company’s criminal conviction.

Herbalife CEO Michael Johnson praised the Dahls’ work at Online Business Systems as recently as 2010. But Herbalife began to distance itself from Dahl and Online Business Systems soon after hedge fund activist Bill Ackman launched a $1 billion short against the company and claimed it is a pyramid scheme.

Herbalife has denied it is a pyramid scheme.

Ackman also shone a light on the so-called lead generation practices of companies like Online Business Systems. Among other practices, Online Business Systems sold to new Herbalife distributors for as much as $100 a pop the names of people who signed up for Herbalife’s business opportunity, sources said.

Most of the leads were worthless, distributors told The Post last year.

Under scrutiny, Herbalife finally severed its relationship with the Dahls and Online Business Systems. Shawn Dahl left Herbalife at the end of the June, as The Post exclusively reported at the time.

Link to french article {http://bit.ly/1ljUSnw}