Asian Market Update: RBA abandons easing bias, sending AUD sharply higher
***Economic Data*** - (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED); DROPS EASING BIAS; Sees most prudent course being a period of stable rates - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: 1.2% V 1.0% PRIOR (3-month high) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN CPI M/M: 0.5% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.1%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.9% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN JAN MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 51.9% V 46.6% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥200.9T V ¥201.9T PRIOR
***Observations/Insights*** - Yum Brands looks to get past its troubles in China; Shares rise over 4% in extended session after earnings and commentary that bird flu will not be an issue. - Nikkei225 leading the steep selloff in Asia, tracking more pronounced correction in the US and sharp gains in the funding Japanese Yen currency; Hang Seng is back after holidays with catch-up selling sending the index to a 5-month low. - RBA policy statement marks an abrupt shift away from an open-ended dovish bias after most recent rise in Q4 CPI; Sees monetary policy "appropriately configured" and most prudent course being "a period of stability" in interest rates; RBA also drops the language referring to AUD as "uncomfortably high", sending the currency sharply higher across the board. - BOJ Gov Kuroda affirms commitment to achieve 2% inflation by the 1st half of 2015, having first set out on course toward that target within a 2-year timeframe in April of 2013; Speaking to Parliament, Kuroda also said the easing has produced smooth progress, with domestic economy recovering moderately.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.19T in 0.6% (0.6% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg yield: 0.596% v 0.719% prior; Bid to cover: 3.21x v 3.84x prior - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,095.1 tonnes from 10,029 tonnes (first rise since Jan 18th, highest level since Dec 20th) - USD/KRW: Rises to KRW1,090; Highest level since Sept
- The spike in AUD is all the rage in the currency markets following a far less dovish RBA policy statement. AUD/USD is up over 130pips above $0.8880, AUD/NZD hit 7-week highs above NZ$1.0930, and AUD/JPY is reversing the risk-off flows with 180pip move higher toward the ¥90 handle. NZD/USD was up after the RBA as well in sympathy with AUD, rising over 70pips from its lows above $0.8120. USD/JPY is off the low of the US session, rising about 50pips above ¥101.30.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (AU) JPMorgan economist: RBA has "clearly moved towards a more neutral stance of monetary policy; It's going to put the burden on the data over the next few months for the RBA to ease policy any further" - SMH - (AU) Moody's: Australian prime mortgage arrears remain stable in November 2013 - (NZ) New Zealand Fin Min English: Higher rates to not have major impact on economic growth; Not comfortable with level of NZD, prefers to see it lower - (NZ) ANZ chief economist Bagrie: 6% or 10% growth in China matters little to New Zealand economy - NZ Herald - (JP) Japan BOJ gov Kuroda: Japan likely to eye 2% inflation around latter half of FY14 through early FY15; Japan making progress to achieve BOJ's 2% target - addressing parliament - (JP) Japan PM Abe: BOJ will make appropriate decision on exit strategy from current easing policy - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: To continue to closely watch financial markets - (JP) Japan Econ Min Amari: US stock market reaction overdone; Japan economy seems very favorable - financial press - (JP) Nikkei comments on proposals for Japan govt to consider a wider tax base as an offset to implementing lower corporate taxes - (JP) Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER): Japan's Real Dec GDP estimated at +0.2% m/m; Rising for 5th consecutive month - Nikkei - (HK) Hong Kong Jan existing home listings +4.4% m/m - Hong Kong press - (HK) According to Centaline Property Agency, Hong Kong property experienced 10-yr low New Year sales - financial press - (CN) China City of Shenzhen, Guangdong Province raises minimum wage to CNY1,808/month from CNY1,600/month - Chinese press - (US) Fed's Fisher (hawk, FOMC voter): Current decline in the equity markets should not deter the Fed from the taper of asset purchases
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -3.1%, S&P/ASX -1.8%, Kospi -1.6%, Shanghai Composite closes, Hang Seng -2.4%, Mar S&P500 +0.4% at 1,739, Apr gold -0.3% at $1,256, Mar crude oil +0.1% at $96.52/brl
US markets: - YUM: Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.80e, R$4.18B v $4.24Be; +4.2% afterhours - HOLX: Reports Q1 $0.34 adj v $0.31e, R$612M v $612Me; +3.1% afterhours - HIG: Reports Q4 $0.94 v $0.90e, R$2.97B v $2.79Be; +1.7% afterhours - APC: Reports Q4 $0.74 (adj) v $0.93e, R$3.34B v $3.76Be; +0.5% afterhours - CHD: Reports Q4 $0.65 v $0.67e, R$822.6M v $822Me; Raises quarterly dividend 11% from $0.28 to $0.31; Announces repurchase program; -0.9% afterhours - TTWO: Reports Q3 $1.70 v $1.41e, R$767.7M v $711Me; -3.4% afterhours - EW: Reports Q4 $0.91 v $0.83e, R$536M v $536Me; -3.7% afterhours - DNB: Reports Q4 $2.75 adj v $2.85e, R$476.7M v $468Me; raises quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.44/shr from $0.40 prior; announces management changes; -15.2% afterhours - GOOG: Chairman Schmidt expects US approval on Lenovo deal - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Wynn Macau 1128.HK -0.3% (Q4 results); Clarion Co 6796.JP -4.9% (9M results) - Financials: REA Group REA.AU +4.2% (H1 results); Sumitomo Corp 8053.JP -4.4% (9M results) - Materials: Mitsubishi Corp 8058.JP -4.2% (9M results); Jiangxi Copper 358.HK -2.6% (LME copper fell to 2-month low); 8001.JP -4.7% (9M results) - Energy: Shandong Molong Petroleum Machinery 568.HK -4.1% (FY13 guidance) - Industrials: Nissan Chemical Industries 4021.JP -0.1% (9M results); Fuji Heavy Industries 7270.JP -3.7% (9M results); Downer EDI DOW.AU -2.1% (H1 results); Mitsubishi Motors 7211.JP -3.6% (Jan US sales results); Mazda Motor 7261.JP -5.4% (Jan US sales results); Honda Motor 7267.JP -5.1% (Jan US sales results) - Technology: Lenovo Group 992.HK -14.3% (JV with Sony)
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Nikkei 225 May Drop 25% From December Peak, Schroeders Says 2014-02-04 05:17:00.645 GMT
By Jonathan Burgos Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- A 20-25% drop in the Nikkei 225 Stock Average from its Dec. 30 peak isn’t unreasonable, Tim Schroeders, who helps oversee about $1 billion as a money manager at Pengana Capital in Melbourne, says by phone today. * Nikkei 225 -3.5% to 14,112.71 at 2:11 p.m. in Tokyo, poised for a 13% decline from the Dec. high; Topix slumped 4.1%, set for a 12% drop from Jan. 8 high * “Expectations on how quickly the Japanese economy can recover are probably too high,” Schroeders says. “It’s going to be a harder task to make the economy sustainably competitive given issues on demographics and labor productivity.”
NOTE: Japan Sees Worst Developed-Stock Rout as Nikkei 225 Sinks NSN N0GDWZ6TTDS4 <GO> NOTE: Yen’s Role in Abenomics Threatened by Tokyo Vote: Currencies NSN N0G2YR6KLVRN <GO>
For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story: Jonathan Burgos in Singapore at +65-6212-1156 or jburgos4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sarah McDonald at +61-2-9777-8684 or smcdonald23@bloomberg.net
After Hours Summary: NLST +16.9%, POWI +6.4%, YUM +4.4%, DNB -15.2%, AFOP -9.9%, EW -4.2% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: NLST +16.9%, POWI +6.4%, WSTL +5.8%, RTEC +4.6%, YUM +4.4%, HOLX +3.1%, CFN +2%, APU +1.7%, HIG +1.5%, UNIS +1.4%, PSEC +1.2%, AEIS +0.5%, PFG +0.2%, BRO +0.2%, GGP +0.2%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: - DXCM +5.8% (confirmed G4 PLATINUM Continuous Glucose Monitor (CGM) received FDA approval for use in children ages 2 to 17 years), - RTEC +4.6% (received two orders for its lithography systems totaling more than $11 mln), - FTR +2.9% (co announced it has began regulatory approval process to acquire AT&T (T) wireline, broadband and video operations in Connecticut), - LL +2.6% (S.A.C. Capital discloses 5.0% passive stake in 13G filing), - ILMN +0.8% (disclosed its Board of Directors authorized up to $250.0 mln to repurchase shares)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: DNB -15.2%, AFOP -9.9%, PSMI -9.5%, FN -7.7%, EW -4.2%, TTWO -3.7%, AGNC-0.8%, APC -0.2%, CCK -0.1%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: - ABIO -11.7% (announced proposed public offering of common stock and warrants), - HALO -5.3% (announced public offering of $100 mln of its common stock), - CPHD -5.0% (to offer $250 mln principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2021), - PACD -1.0% (announced availability of fleet status report and revenue efficiency guidance; sees FY14 Operating Fleet Average Revenue Efficiency of 90-94%)
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Slump Amid Continued Yen Strength
The stock market began February on a sharply lower note after enduring a rough month of January. Small caps paced the Monday retreat as the Russell 2000 tumbled 3.1% while the S&P 500 fell 2.3%. For its part, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1%, ending below its 200-day moving average (15470).
Despite the sharply lower finish, today's session actually started in the green. However, sellers emerged during the opening minutes and intensified their efforts after the January ISM Manufacturing Index registered a large decline (to 51.3 from 56.6).
Although the ISM report itself did not cause the aggressive selloff, it added to global growth concerns that have been percolating under the surface after China's Manufacturing PMI (50.5) fell to a six-month low while the Non-Manufacturing reading (53.4) registered an 11-month low.
Furthermore, the selloff was accompanied by another wave of yen strength. Dollar/yen traded right above the 102.00 level at the start of the session, but retreated along with equities. The pair finished the trading day right under 101.00 while yen futures added 1.4%, extending their 2014 gain to 4.3%.
The daylong pressure that was exerted on equities translated into strength for the bond market. The 10-yr note ended on its high with its yield down seven basis points at 2.59%. Gold futures also garnered interest, climbing 1.6% to $1259.50 per troy ounce.
Also of note, the retreat invited strong demand for volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 21.12, +2.71) to its highest level since late June. Over the past two weeks, the near-term volatility gauge has added more than 72.0%.
All ten sectors finished in the red with the lowest-weighted group—telecom services (-3.7%)—ending at the bottom of the leaderboard. The remaining nine sectors fared a bit better, posting losses between 0.8% and 2.7%.
The discretionary sector (-2.7%) was the weakest performer among cyclical groups as retailers continued their recent weakness. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 77.47, -2.38) lost 3.0%, sliding to levels not seen since late August. Today's loss widened the retail ETF's 2014 decline to 12.1%.
Automakers also pressured the discretionary space after Ford (F 14.55,-0.41) reported a 7.0% decline in January sales while General Motors (GM 35.25, -0.83) announced an 11.9% decrease in sales. The two names settled lower by 2.7% and 2.3%, respectively.
Elsewhere, other influential sectors like financials (-2.5%) and industrials (-2.7%) lagged while health care (-2.0%) and technology (-2.2%) ended just ahead of the S&P 500.
The utilities sector (-0.8%) was the only group that avoided losing 1.0% or more. The rate-sensitive sector is the only group that remains in positive territory for the year with a gain of 2.1%.
The selloff was accompanied by heavy volume as more than 900 million shares changed hands on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Today's data was limited to just a pair of reports:
* The ISM Manufacturing Index for January dropped to 51.3 from 56.5 while the consensus expected the reading to fall to 56.0. That tied the largest one-month decline since October 2008. The sharp decline in the national index did not correlate with the regional surveys from Federal Reserve banks. They showed modest improvements in manufacturing activity throughout the country. According to the ISM report, some of the weakness may have been due to the extreme winter weather conditions that occurred in January. If this is true, then the ISM Index should bounce back rather significantly in February. * Total construction spending increased 0.1% in December after increasing a downwardly revised 0.8% (from 1.0%) in November. The consensus expected construction spending to increase 0.1%. The residential construction spending data does not line up with the contraction reported in the advance estimate for fourth quarter GDP growth. The downturn in fourth quarter residential investment spending could have only occurred if spending fell in December or if there were large revisions to the November and/or October data. According to the Census data, that did not happen.
Tomorrow, December factory orders will be announced at 10:00 ET.
* Nasdaq Composite -4.3% YTD * S&P 500 -5.8% YTD * Russell 2000 -5.8% YTD * Dow Jones Industrial Average -7.3% YTD