>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of April 2025 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Aedifica Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 60 euros (++)
* Assystem Raised to Neutral at Invest Securities SA; PT 32 euros (+)
* Big Yellow Group Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 980 pence (++)
* Caterpillar Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $283
* ConvaTec Raised to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 23.50 euros
* DiscoverIE Raised to Buy at Shore Capital (++)
* Ericsson Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$23
* Fortnox Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Greatland Gold Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT 25 pence (+)
* Great Portland Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 280 pence (++)
* Hammerson Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 290 pence (++)
* Hollywood Bowl Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt
* Lockheed Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $575
* Lundin Mining Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$14
* Maersk Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 11,093 kroner
* Momentum Group Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets (++)
* Theon International PT Raised to 40 euros from 37 euros at UBS (++)
* TomTom Raised to Buy at AlphaValue/Baader
* Verbund Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 64 euros
* VGP Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 80 euros (++)

>>> Down
* Autoneum Cut to Hold at Octavian; PT 125 Swiss francs
* Catana Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Detection Tech Oy Cut to Accumulate at Evli Bank; PT 14 euros (++)
* Deutsche Boerse Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 281 euros
* DuPont de Nemours PT Cut to $68 from $85 at Argus
* Fugro Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 15 euros (+)
* Inmobiliaria Colonial Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane (++)
* Lime Technologies Cut to Sell at DNB Markets; PT 355 kronor
* LVMH Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT 500 euros
* Next 15 Group PLC PT Cut to 382 pence at Panmure Liberum (+)
* Nvidia Cut to Hold at Aletheia Capital
* Paccar Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $96
* Straumann PT Cut to 95 Swiss francs from 108 Swiss francs at UBS (++)
* Symrise Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 90 euros
* United Airlines Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
* US Steel Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $38 (+)
* Vaisala Raised to Buy at Evli Bank; PT 52 euros (+)
* Veolia Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 25 euros

>>> Initiation
* First Quantum Minerals Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$23
* GSK ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $35.25
* Knaus Tabbert Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader (+)
* Metsa Board Rated New Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 3.50 euros (+)
* Nordex Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 19 euros
* Novo ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $61
* Sanofi ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $65
* SFC Energy Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 33 euros (+)
* Spie Rated New Buy at William O'Neil (+)

>>> Call
* Barclays Strategists Say Stagnation Is Priced in European Stocks (+)
* Berenberg Trims Brenntag Price Target Amid Volume Risks (+)
* LVMH Cut, Given Street-Low Target at TD Cowen After Weak Results
* Maersk’s Valuation ‘Unusually Attractive,’ Citi Upgrades
* Nordex Issues Starting to Clear, Rated New Buy at Berenberg (+)
* Novo Nordisk Price Target Cut at Barclays on Wegovy Outlook (+)
* Shell Seen as Resilient, ‘Stand-Out’ Oil Major by Bernstein
* Straumann Shares Drop After UBS Cuts Price Target to Street-Low (++)
* Veolia Downgraded at Jefferies on Challenged Earnings Outlook

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of April 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Assystem Raised to Neutral at Invest Securities SA; PT 32 euros (+)
* Caterpillar Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $283
* ConvaTec Raised to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 23.50 euros
* Ericsson Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$23
* Fortnox Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Greatland Gold Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT 25 pence (+)
* Hollywood Bowl Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt
* Lockheed Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $575
* Lundin Mining Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$14
* Maersk Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 11,093 kroner
* TomTom Raised to Buy at AlphaValue/Baader
* Verbund Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 64 euros

>>> Down
* Autoneum Cut to Hold at Octavian; PT 125 Swiss francs
* Catana Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Deutsche Boerse Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 281 euros
* DuPont de Nemours PT Cut to $68 from $85 at Argus
* Fugro Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 15 euros (+)
* Lime Technologies Cut to Sell at DNB Markets; PT 355 kronor
* LVMH Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT 500 euros
* Next 15 Group PLC PT Cut to 382 pence at Panmure Liberum (+)
* Nvidia Cut to Hold at Aletheia Capital
* Paccar Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $96
* Symrise Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 90 euros
* United Airlines Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
* US Steel Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $38 (+)
* Vaisala Raised to Buy at Evli Bank; PT 52 euros (+)
* Veolia Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 25 euros

>>> Initiation
* First Quantum Minerals Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$23
* GSK ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $35.25
* Knaus Tabbert Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader (+)
* Metsa Board Rated New Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 3.50 euros (+)
* Nordex Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 19 euros
* Novo ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $61
* Sanofi ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $65
* SFC Energy Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 33 euros (+)
* Spie Rated New Buy at William O'Neil (+)

>>> Call
* Barclays Strategists Say Stagnation Is Priced in European Stocks (+)
* Berenberg Trims Brenntag Price Target Amid Volume Risks (+)
* LVMH Cut, Given Street-Low Target at TD Cowen After Weak Results
* Maersk’s Valuation ‘Unusually Attractive,’ Citi Upgrades
* Nordex Issues Starting to Clear, Rated New Buy at Berenberg (+)
* Novo Nordisk Price Target Cut at Barclays on Wegovy Outlook (+)
* Shell Seen as Resilient, ‘Stand-Out’ Oil Major by Bernstein
* Veolia Downgraded at Jefferies on Challenged Earnings Outlook

>>> What to look at today - 16th of April 2025

A two-day rally in global stocks stalled as US trade conflicts showed no signs of abating after the Trump administration imposed new restrictions on Nvidia Corp.’s chip exports to China. Chinese technology companies led Asian stocks lower, while equity-index futures for the US and Europe retreated along with Nvidia in after-hours trading. Treasuries were little changed after a two-day rally and gold hit a record on demand for haven assets. The dollar pared some of its Tuesday advance as the Swiss franc and the euro led gains against most currencies. Japanese long-term bonds rallied. A brief consolidation in stocks - after the turmoil last week - is slipping as traders are again dealing with a slew of tariff headlines, including US President Donald Trump launching a probe into the need for levies on critical minerals. The flip flops have roiled global markets this month as investors struggle to take long-term positions due to the unpredictability of policy announcements from Washington. Shares in mainland China and Hong Kong held their losses even as China’s economy showed surprising strength in early 2025 with a sharp uptick in March, though the trade impasse prompted calls for stimulus to offset the tariff shock. Asian technology stocks fell after Nvidia’s announcement raised concerns about how the latest curbs may expand the trade war beyond import taxes. The fallout could weigh on chip-sector earnings and set back China’s ambitions to compete on the global artificial intelligence stage. 
A gauge of Chinese technology shares in Hong Kong tumbled more than 4.5%. In Japan, 30-year bonds rebounded as volatility eased in the Treasuries market and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested it may have to make a policy response to higher US tariffs. A slowing economy may impede the BOJ’s plan to gradually raise interest rates. The yield on the tenor dropped 11 basis points to 2.705%, while the five-year yield fell 3.5 basis points to 0.845%. The moves came after Japan’s super-long yield premiums hit the highest since 2002 amid fiscal concerns and global volatility. In after-market trading, Nvidia extended its decline to more than 6% after saying the US government will begin requiring a license to export the company’s H20 chips to China, an escalation of restrictions that the company has publicly opposed. It’ll report about $5.5 billion in charges during the fiscal first quarter from “inventory, purchase commitments and related reserves” tied to the products. Meanwhile, the European Union and the US struggled to bridge trade differences this week as White House officials said the bulk of the US tariffs imposed on the bloc won’t be removed. Italian Premier Giorgia Meloni is also due to land in Washington to meet with Trump. Japan’s chief negotiator will visit Washington April 16-18 to kick off formal talks with his counterparts.  Trump urged China to reach out to him in order to kick off negotiations after the nation ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing Co. jets. The Trump administration may use tariff negotiations to try to pressure trading partners to limit dealings with China, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people with knowledge of the conversations. Investors are also gearing up for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the economy later Wednesday. In commodities, oil steadied after a modest decline on Tuesday. US After Hours UAL +5.7% higher on earnings; IBKR -6.3% lower on earnings despite 4-for-1 split and dividend hike; ICAD +73.1% to be acquired; CVGW +2.7% as CEO bought shares.

Nikkei -1.59% Hang Seng -2.59% CSI -0.76% Shanghai -0.73% Shenzen -1.96%

Eur$ 1.1333 CNH 7.3298 CNY 7.3270 JPY 142.64 GBP 1.3264 CHF 0.8163 RUB 83.55 TRY 38.1119 WTI$ 61.23 -0.18% Gold 3,286 +1.70% BTC 83,630 -0.46% ETH 1,589 -0.38%

S&P -1.48% Nasdaq -2.30% EuroStoxx -1.77% FTSE -0.87% Dax -1.29% SMI -0.90%

Macro :
- Gold, Swiss Franc Surge as Nvidia Sours Tech Mood: Macro Squawk
- Chip Stocks Sink After Nvidia Reports New US Export Restrictions

Keep an eye on :
- ALGM US : Allegro Says Onsemi’s Proposals Inadequate
- AMD US : *ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES FOLLOWS NVIDIA LOWER, DOWN 7%
- ASML NA : ASML 1Q Bookings Misses Estimates, ASML Orders Miss Estimates as Uncertainty Over US Tariffs Loom
- BAR BB : Barco 1Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- BLV FP : Believe Majority Holder Upbeat Bidco to File Public Buyout Offer
- BHP AU : BHP Announces Pumped Hydro Project Study at Mt Arthur Coal
- IAG LN : United Leads Airlines Higher as 1Q Earnings Beat Estimates (1)
- AVGO US : *BROADCOM, MICRON, MARVELL SHARES FALL MORE THAN 3%
- BWLPG NO : BW LPG Product Services 1Q Result About Minus $12M
- 1211 HK : Samsung Electro to Supply Automotive Materials to BYD: Maeil
- BMAX SS : Byggmax 1Q Net Sales Meet Estimates
- CAN LN : Canal+ Reshapes Leadership, Expands Executives’ Responsibilities
- D6H GY : KKR Agrees to Buy German IT Firm Datagroup at 33% Premium
- EDEN FP : Edenred 1Q Operating Revenue Meets Estimates
- EQT SS : EQT Assets Under Management Beats Estimates
- FDJU FP : FDJ United 1Q Revenue EU925M Vs. EU710M Y/y
- GALP PL : Galp-Chartered Ship Looks Next to Load from Calcasieu Pass
- HOG US : Major Hedge Fund Prepares for Fight at Harley-Davidson -- WSJ
- IDIA SW : Idorsia: 2025 Convertible Bond Term Amendments Approved by Court
- IPH FP : Innate Pharma to Propose Governance Structure Change
- IPN FP : Ipsen 1Q Sales Beat Estimates
- NDA FH : Nordea Bank 1Q Net Interest Income Beats Estimates
- NVDA US : Chip Stocks Sink After Nvidia Reports New US Export Restrictions
- NVDA US : Nvidia Warns Trump Curbs on China AI Chips to Cost $5.5 Billion
- OVS IM : OVS FY Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- PTEC LN : Playtech Set to Name Ex-DAZN Executive Gleasure Chairman: Sky
- QIA GY : Fivespan Is Said to Build Stake in Life Sciences Group Qiagen
- RIO LN : Rio Sees 2025 Pilbara Shipments at Lower End of Guidance
- RIO LN : Rio’s Iron Ore Exports Fall to Six-Year Low Due to Cyclones
- SRT GY : Sartorius Sees FY Sales About +6%
- DIM FP : Sartorius Stedim 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- TSLA US : Tesla Halts Plans to Ship Cybercab, Semi Parts From China: Rtrs
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies Plans to Stick With Clean Energy Push: FT
- UCG IM : Italy May Ask UniCredit to Exit Russia to OK BPM Bid: Messaggero

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of April 2025

>>> Up
* Caterpillar Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $283
* Delivery Hero Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 23.50 euros
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$23
* Fortnox Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Hollywood Bowl Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt
* Lockheed Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $575
* Lundin Mining Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT C$14
* Maersk Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 11,093 kroner
* TomTom Raised to Buy at AlphaValue/Baader
* Verbund Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 64 euros

>>> Down
* Autoneum Cut to Hold at Octavian; PT 125 Swiss francs
* DuPont de Nemours PT Cut to $68 from $85 at Argus
* Lime Technologies Cut to Sell at DNB Markets; PT 355 kronor
* LVMH Cut to Hold at TD Cowen; PT 500 euros
* Nvidia Cut to Hold at Aletheia Capital
* Paccar Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $96
* Symrise Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 90 euros
* United Airlines Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James
* Veolia Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 25 euros

>>> Initiation
* First Quantum Minerals Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT C$23
* GSK ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $35.25
* Nordex Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 19 euros
* Novo ADRs Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $61
* Sanofi ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $65

>>> Call
* LVMH Cut, Given Street-Low Target at TD Cowen After Weak Results
* Maersk’s Valuation ‘Unusually Attractive,’ Citi Upgrades
* Shell Seen as Resilient, ‘Stand-Out’ Oil Major by Bernstein
* Veolia Downgraded at Jefferies on Challenged Earnings Outlook

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +2.8%
    • Sartorius Sees FY Sales About +6%
  • Kongsberg (KOZ TH) +1.6%
  • Symrise (SY1 TH) -1.6%
    • Symrise Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 90 euros
  • Brenntag (BNR TH) -1.6%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -1.7%
  • 3i (IGQ5 TH) -1.8%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.8%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) -1.9%
  • Wienerberger (WIB TH) -2.2%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -2.9%
  • Veolia (VVD TH) -4%
    • Veolia Downgraded at Jefferies on Challenged Earnings Outlook
  • ASML (ASME TH) -5%
    • ASML Orders Miss Estimates, CEO Warns of Tariff Uncertainty (1)

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +5.4%
    • Sartorius Sees FY Sales About +6%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.1%
  • SAP (SAP TH) -1.1%
  • Brenntag (BNR TH) -1.2%
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) -1.5%
MDAX:
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -1%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) -1.2%
  • Bechtle (BC8 TH) -1.6%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) -1.6%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -2.7%
SDAX:
  • MLP (MLP TH) +2.3%
  • Cancom (COK TH) -1%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -1.3%
  • SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -1.5%
  • Siltronic (WAF TH) -2%

The information : Meta Attempted Negotiations to Settle Antitrust Lawsuit

Meta Attempted Negotiations to Settle Antitrust Lawsuit

Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg last month offered to pay $450 million to settle an antitrust case brought by the Federal Trade Commission—far less than the $30 billion demanded by the FTC—The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. That case went to trial on Monday in Washington, where Zuckerberg has thus far testified for about nine hours and is expected to continue testifying on Wednesday.

FTC chair Andrew Ferguson considered the offer not credible and would not settle for less than $18 billion and a consent decree, the Journal reported. As the trial approached, Meta made an offer of close to $1 billion and Zuckerberg lobbied President Donald Trump to settle the case.

Trump at some point appeared more open to striking a deal with Zuckerberg at Meta, the Journal reported. But last week, Ferguson discussed the matter with Trump, who blessed the case going to trial. Gail Slater, the head of the Justice Department’s antitrust division; Mike Davis, a key antitrust adviser to Trump; Susie Wiles, the White House’s chief of staff; and Gary Barnett, Ferguson’s chief of staff also attended that meeting.

“We haven’t been shy about explaining why it doesn’t make sense for the FTC to bring a case to trial that requires it to prove something every 17-year-old in America knows is absurd — that Instagram doesn’t compete with TikTok,” a spokesperson for Meta said in a statement. “We are prepared to win at trial.“

Spokespeople for the White House and the FTC did not respond to requests for comment.

Techcrunch : Nvidia H20 chip exports hit with license requirement by US governme

Nvidia H20 chip exports hit with license requirement by US government


Semiconductor giant Nvidia is facing unexpected new U.S. export controls on its H20 chips.

In a filing Tuesday, Nvidia said it was informed by the U.S. government that it will need a license to export its H20 AI chips to China. This license will be required indefinitely, according to the filing — the U.S. government cited “risk that the [H20] may be used in […] a supercomputer in China.”

Nvidia anticipates $5.5 billion in related charges in its Q1 2026 fiscal year, which ends April 27. The company’s stock was down around 6% in extended trading.

The H20 is the most advanced AI chip Nvidia can export to China under the U.S.’ current and previous export rules. Last week, NPR reported that CEO Jensen Huang might have talked his way out of new H20 restrictions during a dinner at President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, in part by committing that Nvidia would invest in AI data centers in the U.S.

Perhaps not-so-coincidentally, Nvidia announced on Monday that it would spend hundreds of millions of dollars over the next four years manufacturing some AI chips in the U.S. Pundits were quick to point out that the company’s commitment was light on the details.

Multiple government officials had been calling for stronger export controls on the H20 because the chip was allegedly used to train models from China-based AI startup DeepSeek, including the R1 “reasoning” model that threw the U.S. AI market for a loop in January.

Nvidia declined to comment.

WSJ : U.S. Plans to Use Tariff Negotiations to Isolate China

U.S. Plans to Use Tariff Negotiations to Isolate China
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants trading partners to limit China’s involvement in their economies in exchange for concessions on reciprocal tariffs

The Trump administration plans to use ongoing tariff negotiations to pressure U.S. trading partners to limit their dealings with China, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.

The idea is to extract commitments from U.S. trading partners to isolate China’s economy in exchange for reductions in trade and tariff barriers imposed by the White House. U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, prevent Chinese firms from locating in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs, and not absorb China’s cheap industrial goods into their economies.

Those measures are meant to put a dent in China’s already rickety economy and force Beijing to the negotiating table with less leverage ahead of potential talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The exact demands could vary widely by nation, given their degree of involvement with the Chinese economy.

The White House and Treasury didn’t respond to requests for comment.

U.S. officials have broached the idea in early talks with some countries, people familiar with the discussions said. Trump himself hinted at the strategy on Tuesday, telling the Spanish-language program “Fox Noticias” he would consider making countries choose between the U.S. and China in response to a question about Panama deciding not to renew its role in the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s global infrastructure program for developing nations.

One brain behind the strategy is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has taken a leading role in the trade negotiations since Trump announced a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for most nations—but not China—on April 9.

Bessent pitched the idea to Trump during an April 6 meeting at Mar-a-Lago, the president’s club in Florida, said people familiar with the discussion, saying that extracting concessions from U.S. trading partners could prevent Beijing and its companies from avoiding U.S. tariffs, export controls and other economic measures, the people said.

The tactic is part of a strategy being pushed by Bessent to isolate the Chinese economy that has gained traction among Trump officials recently. Debates over the scope and severity of U.S. tariffs are ongoing, but officials largely appear to agree with Bessent’s China plan.

It involves cutting China off from the U.S. economy with tariffs and potentially even cutting Chinese stocks out of U.S. exchanges. Bessent didn’t rule out the administration trying to delist Chinese stocks in a recent interview with Fox Business.

Still, the ultimate goal of the administration’s China policy isn’t yet clear.

Bessent has also said there is still room for talks on a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China. Such talks would have to involve Trump and Xi. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a new statement from Trump during Tuesday’s press briefing suggesting a deal with China isn’t imminent.

“The ball is in China’s court,” Leavitt said when reading Trump’s statement. “China needs to make a deal with us. We don’t have to make a deal with them. China wants what we have…the American consumer.”

It also isn’t clear that the anti-China line has entered into negotiations with all nations. Some countries haven’t heard demands from U.S. negotiators related to China, say people familiar with the talks, though they acknowledge that negotiations remain in early stages. Many expect the Trump administration to raise China-related demands sooner or later.

Bessent has shown his desire for anti-China pledges from U.S. trading partners before. In late February, he said that Mexico had offered to match U.S. tariffs on China as part of negotiations over Trump’s tariffs on Mexico imposed because of the fentanyl trade. Bessent called Mexico’s offer a “nice gesture,” but the idea didn’t find much traction with the administration.

Since then, Bessent has taken a more central role in trade negotiations, assuming a lead in talks over reciprocal tariffs after Trump announced his 90-day pause on April 9. The Treasury secretary is slated to meet with Japan’s economic revitalization minister as soon as Wednesday and has laid out a list of nations he thinks could soon reach deals with the U.S., including Japan, the U.K., Australia, South Korea and India.

China is conducting its own trade diplomacy. This week, Xi traveled to Vietnam—a major U.S. trading partner hard-hit by Trump’s tariffs—and signed dozens of economic pledges with the Hanoi government.

China views Trump’s reciprocal trade gambit as an opportunity, Peter Harrell, the former senior director for international economics on former President Joe Biden’s National Security Council, said on a panel discussion Tuesday at Georgetown Law.

But China’s ability to counteract U.S. trade policies is limited, Harrell said. While the U.S. remains a “massive net importer,” China is reducing its imports from the rest of the world and focusing on self-sufficiency.

China “isn’t going to replace the U.S. as a source of demand for the products that a bunch of these developing countries…make,” Harrell said. “So the economics of this are going to prove challenging for China, but I think we see them playing the politics of this reasonably savvily.”