FT : BG gains on latest break-up speculation

BG gains on latest break-up speculation

A new twist on break-up speculation meant BG Group outperformed a falling market.
The latest theory, via Deutsche Bank, was that BG should spin out its liquefied natural gas (LNG) business. Bundling the assets together would refocus BG on production growth, as well as taking the pressure off management to sell down its prized exploration fields in Brazil, the broker said.

BG “contains two distinct and attractive businesses – one focused on the LNG chain, the other Brazilian oil”, said Deutsche. But the group’s scale and disparate focus had undermined management’s ability to maximise value, as well as repelling potential bidders, the broker said.
BG promised accelerated disposals after Chris Finlayson was removed as chief executive in April in an apparent row over strategy. But with sellers of oilfields outnumbering buyers, the strategy risked diluting long-term value, said Deutsche.
Instead, BG should create an integrated LNG producer by bundling gas fields together with its shipping and marketing businesses. The predictable cashflows from such a business would attract yield investors as well as being able to wear most of BG’s $14bn of net debt, Deutsche said.
It reckoned a separate BG LNG would be worth about 720p per share based on peer multiples. The remaining BG business, with sector-leading growth coming from its Santos basin project in Brazil, would have a valuation of at least 700p, it said.
BG closed up 2.5 per cent to £12.71. The stock has advanced 10.9 per cent since Mr Finlayson left.
A quiet wider market left the FTSE 100 lower by 24.64 points or 0.4 per cent to 6,800.56.
Kentz jumped 32.2 per cent to 929p after Canada’s SNC Lavalin made a 935p-cash-per-share bid for the oil services engineer. A binding recommendation from Kentz’s largest shareholder and SNC’s use of a scheme of arrangement for the deal both pointed to very little chance of a counterbid, dealers said.
Analysts saw little readthrough for UK sector peers, which do not overlap Kentz’s niche of upstream cost-plus services. Cape was 3.5 per cent higher at 298p and Lamprell rose 2.7 per cent to 151.3p.
Amec, which last year had offers for Kentz of up to 580p rejected, was down 1.3 per cent to £12.33.
Lonmin gained 4.5 per cent to 259.6p on reports that South Africa’s Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union had accepted a wage deal, ending a five-month strike by platinum workers. The stock has tumbled about 21 per cent since the strike began.
Other miners were supported by Chinese data suggesting that manufacturing activity was at a seven-month high. BHP Billiton was up 1.9 per cent to £19.38, Rio Tinto gained 1.6 per cent to £31.27 and Fresnillo added 1.7 per cent to 861p.
Foxtons lost 4.3 per cent to 268p after Goldman Sachs started coverage with a “neutral” rating. It saw Howden Joinery, up 2.2 per cent to 296.7p, as a better-value play on the UK housing market.
Smith & Nephew lost 1.9 per cent to £10.59 after it temporarily suspended US distribution of wound therapy product, having been told that product required new regulatory clearances. Morgan Stanley reckoned the halt would only cost S&N about $15m of sales, or about 1 per cent of the group total.

>>> US After Hours

After Hours Summary: SONC +1.5%, XEL +0.2%, GIGA -10.2%, MU -0.4% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: SONC +1.5%, XEL +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CRMD +5.4% (finalized pivotal Phase 3 study protocol for FDA), OHRP +4.4% (co to host conference call and webcast to discuss Squalamine interim Phase 2 data in wet-AMD on Tuesday, June 24, 2014 at 8:30 am ET), ZPIN +3.9% (Tiger Global Investments disclosed 18.6% passive stake in 13G filing), CAW +1.2% (stated its policy is not to comment on unusual market activity), HCLP +0.6% (announced new long-term frac sand purchase agreement with Halliburton)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: GIGA -10.2%, MU -0.4%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: KNOP -7.9% (announced public offering of 4.6 mln common units; announced the entry into acquisition agreements for the purchase of the Hilda Knutsen and Torill Knutsen; management recommended $0.035 increase to quarterly cash distribution), DF -7.4% (seeing reports that authorities have subpoenaed the company in insider trading investigation involving Carl Icahn), BRX -2.5% (announced secondary offering Of 25 mln shares of common stock by selling shareholder), VNCE -1.8% (announced launch of secondary public offering of ~3.55 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), MELI -1.7% (intends to offer $300 mln of convertible senior notes), FANG -1.3% (announced the launch of an underwritten public offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders; the shares to be sold in the offering will be sold by certain entities controlled by Wexford Capital LP and by Gulfport Energy), PANW -1.0% (announced proposed $500 mln offering of convertible senior notes due 2019), PRTA -0.9% (announced proposed offering of $100 mln of ordinary shares)

>>> US Close Dow-0,06% S&P-0,01% Nasdaq+0,01%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Begin New Week on Quiet Note

The major averages started the week on a quiet note with the S&P 500 shedding less than a point. To be fair, the slight downtick was a function of some profit taking after the benchmark index registered six consecutive gains.

Equity indices started the day in the red and maintained narrow ranges throughout the session. The S&P 500 tried to regain its flat line shortly after the open, but could not do so as three influential sectors weighed. Specifically, consumer staples (-0.6%), health care (-0.3%), and industrials (-0.6%) slumped out of the gate and pressured the market throughout the session.

Most notably, the industrial sector finished the trading day at the bottom of the leaderboard due to broad weakness among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 0.5% with 17 of 20 components ending in the red. The five airline stocks that comprise a portion of the index all lost more than 1.0% apiece with Southwest Airlines (LUV 26.92, -0.37) leading the retreat. Despite today's loss, the Transportation remained higher by 7.8% for the quarter.

Elsewhere, the health care sector stumbled amid relative weakness in biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 252.91, -2.73) lost 1.1%, trimming its quarter-to-date gain to 7.0%.

Like the high-beta biotech space, chipmakers also displayed relative weakness after Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 4.01, -0.09) and NVIDIA (NVDA 18.71, -0.22) were both downgraded to ‘Underperform' at Pacific Crest. The two stocks lost 2.2% and 1.2%, respectively, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index slipped 0.4%.

Meanwhile, large cap tech names held up well with the likes of Microsoft (MSFT 41.99, +0.31), Google (GOOGL 574.29, +7.77), and Oracle (ORCL 41.10, +0.28) climbing between 0.7% and 1.4%. For its part, Oracle rallied after announcing the acquisition of Micros (MCRS 67.98, +2.21) for $68/share.

Similar to the technology sector (+0.3%), five of the other six cyclical groups posted modest gains. Energy (+0.4%) outperformed throughout the session even as crude oil slid 0.6% to $106.18/bbl. The commodity-linked sector extended its June gain to 6.3%, while pushing its quarter-to-date advance to 12.9%.

The slim losses in equities encouraged participants to increase their demand for volatility protection, but the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 10.97, +0.12), which rose 1.1%, still finished near multi-year lows.

Treasuries, meanwhile, did not indicate safe haven demand as the 10-yr note slipped four ticks, which pushed the benchmark yield higher by one basis point to 2.62%.

Participation remained on the light side with just under 560 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to the Existing Home Sales report for May:
  • Existing home sales increased 4.9% in May to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.89 million from an upwardly revised 4.66 million SAAR (from 4.65 mln SAAR) in April. The consensus expected existing home sales to increase to 4.80 million SAAR. 
    • Mortgage rates, which had been moving higher for most of 2014, fell sharply over the last couple of months and helped boost sales growth, but year-over-year sales are still 5.0% below May 2013 levels. 
    • Purchases by first-time home buyers accounted for only 27% of all sales in May. That was down from 29% in April. First-time home buyers typically account for a third of home purchases during periods of normal sales trends. 
Tomorrow, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index (consensus 11.6%) and FHFA Housing Price Index will both be released at 9:00 ET, while New Home Sales for May (consensus 440K) and June Consumer Confidence (consensus 84.0) will be released at 10:00 ET.
  • S&P 500 +6.2% YTD 
  • Nasdaq Composite +4.6% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 +1.9% YTD

(ZH) The Market Has Never Been More Fearful Of An Extreme Event


The Market Has Never Been More Fearful Of An Extreme Event

 
"There's something going on in derivatives land," is the warning from ADM's Andy Ash and as Paul Mylchreest notes the relationship between VIX and SKEW suggests the options market is pricing in the possibility of a major market event. The process enables professionals to maintain the illusion of calmness in VIX while hedging their positions (as they attempt to unwind as we have shown). Whether this 'event' is a crash or melt-up is historically unclear but given the taper and the trend of the last few years, we suspect the former more likely that the latter.

 

Via ADM Investor Services' Paul Mylchreest,
A rather thought-provoking chart which we've been looking at is the ratio of the SKEW (the chance of an extreme or outlier event, i.e. OTM versus ATM options) versus the VIX (the expectations for more 'normal' day-to-day volatility - the price of hedging implied by ATM options)... and is an indicator of how the market is pricing the possibility of a potential black swan event.
You can see how extended we are right now… (actually at record highs)
 
We can’t help wondering when Bill Gross tells the world that he is selling volatility, whether he is, in fact, selling ATM vol and buying OTM vol ???
While (curiously) 2000 didn’t register, the two previous highs in the SKEW/VIX ratio were 1994 and 2007 which turned out to be pivotal dates in terms of changes in market direction.
One up and one down... Which does it look like this time?
*  *  *
Think briefly about who is buying and who is selling? Thiunk about who is buying deep OTM protection? Smells like the professionals are a little less sanguine than their chatter suggests...
Institutional clients are dumping equities off to retail clients... thank you very much...

 

and those that can't dump their assets are hedging aggressively (while maintaining the illusion with VIX that all is well)

(Challenges) Rafale: Qatar could sign Monday

Rafale: Qatar could sign Monday

The announcement of exclusive negotiations is considered plausible. The opportunity for Dassault to finally add a client to export the table hunting his plane.

A force delays and disappointments, the Areopagus defense has learned not ignite every rumor export order for the Rafale. Too disappointed hopes, too true-false ads, too many twists last minute. Nevertheless: the visit to Paris of the young Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani (34), received this evening by François Hollande for an interview and a formal dinner from 19 hours, strongly resembles a golden opportunity to finally add a client to export table French fighter aircraft. The possibility of choosing the Rafale ad for a 36 or 72 aircraft, is mentioned by several sources interviewed by Challenges, which however remain extremely cautious. "It stirs a lot with a lot of meetings on the sidelines of Eurosatory, confirms a manufacturer. But the calendar is the sole responsibility of the Emir."

The moment the Rafale would finally come? "We are confident that the record result," a French diplomatic source indicated Friday AFP and Reuters, without specifying a date. The geopolitical context appears, in fact, the wearer. "The planets are aligned for a quick official announcement ensures Nabil Ennasri, author of The Riddle of Qatar (ed. Armand Colin) and Qatar (ed. de Boeck). Franco-Qatari relations are excellent, Qatar has strong will no longer be a military dwarf in the region, he is anxious not to be 100% dependent on the U.S., and most importantly, he has the means to achieve its ambitions. " An announcement of the Emir of Qatar "give the amplitude at his post," Judge Nabil Ennasri, stressing that the visit of the Emir Tamim comes a year almost to the day after he came to power.

The first choice of the Qatari army

Technically, in any case, the mass seems proper. After three phases of testing very advanced, the Air Force Qatari assured the French camp that the Rafale was clearly his first choice, say two sources close to the negotiations. "The chosen version would be very close to the latest standard of the device, the F3R version, with active antenna radar [in range and increased reliability, Ed]," says a close case. The Eurofighter Typhoon? Qatar prefer him flying French, more complete. The emirate also seems reluctant to acquire the same devices that rival Saudi Arabia, which has fighter Typhoon and F-15. The F-35 Lockheed Martin? For rather obscure reasons, the United States has not responded to the invitation to tender issued by the emirate last August.

The Rafale appears as the clear favorite. "Combat proven" (combat proven) in Afghanistan, Libya and Mali, it also has close military relations between France and Qatar: Fleet Fighter emirate consists of 12 Mirage 2000-5. L'Harmattan operation in Libya in 2011 saw multiple joint patrols of French and Qatari units, both air forces with a long tradition of collaboration. The Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian also created an excellent context of negotiations with the Qatari authorities, multiplying travel to Doha since the beginning of the year. Should we therefore expect an announcement this evening? "Frankly, I do not believe it," says one industry, a bit superstitious. Before completing a grinning: "... but I could be wrong, eh."

Visit to London just after France

Indeed, caution should be exercised. First, a possible announcement does not relate to a definitive agreement, but rather an entry into exclusive negotiations with the "team Rafale" (Dassault, Thales, Safran). Admittedly, these last very probably much shorter than negotiations in India, started in January 2012, because the version of the Rafale selected by Qatar would be very close to that of the French air force. The component technology transfer is also much less complex, the Qatar requiring no assembly line in place as in India. But it would still transform the test in the coming months.

Another reason for caution industrial is that Amir is determined not to let it dictate no schedule. The young officer must certainly give pledges its air force, which must confirm the scaling (12 Mirage 2000-5 to 72 devices). But his visit to the United Kingdom, which fiercely defends the Eurofighter, just after France, is clearly not the ideal agenda for an ad Rafale tonight. An announcement of the Emir on the French hunter would have more weight.

FT : BNP and US cross the ‘T’s and dot the ‘I�€™s

BNP and US cross the ‘T’s and dot the ‘I’s

The transatlantic negotiations between BNP Paribas and US authorities over the French bank’s alleged sanctions violations have reached the final stages.
With both sides in agreement on the broad outlines of a settlement, the talks between US officials at a range of agencies including the Department of Justice and top BNP executives are now zeroing in on the fine print.

US authorities are pushing for the issues to be resolved before Americans break for the Independence Day weekend on July 4, according to people familiar with the talks.
The French bank seems to be playing for time. One person close to the Paris-based lender joked darkly that it would be ideal if the settlement was announced on July 14 – Bastille day – when most of France is on holiday.
Whenever it does emerge, the details of the settlement are expected to make embarrassing reading for France’s biggest bank by assets and market value.
Even French government officials privately acknowledge the seriousness of BNP’s errors, particularly over its dealings with Sudan, despite the bank having committed no crime under European or French law.
“As one of the biggest banks in global trade finance, BNP should have been aware that they had to be careful,” said a French regulatory official. “They should have stopped doing business with Sudan. They made a huge mistake and they have to pay for it.”
One sticking point is over the wording of the statement of facts that will be published by US authorities as part of a settlement. The bank is trying to avoid a direct link being asserted between its financing of much of Sudan’s oil trade and the violent actions of the Sudanese army in the Darfur region.
In particular, the bank wants to avoid the settlement mentioning the “genocide” accusations levelled at the government of Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, people close to the negotiations said. It is also pushing back against any suggestion by US authorities that the bank’s oil financing deals helped the government of Sudan to buy weapons.
The International Criminal Court has indicted Mr Bashir for alleged war crimes, including genocide, over violence in Darfur, in the southwestern corner of Sudan.
Senior BNP executives concede that even if these elements are excluded from a statement of facts there is little to stop Eric Holder, US attorney-general, from talking about them when he publicly announces a settlement. They concede privately that this is likely to besmirch the bank’s reputation both internationally and in France, and which could impact on its business.
Paris officials are worried by the scale of the fine facing BNP for violating US sanctions on dealing with Iran and Cuba, as well as Sudan, which now looks likely to be $8bn-$9bn. But their biggest concern is the prospect of BNP being barred for a period from dollar clearing – and having to plead guilty.
Michel Sapin, the French finance minister, has lobbied Mr Holder and Jack Lew, the US Treasury secretary. Last month, Christian Noyer, head of the Banque de France, travelled to New York to speak to US regulators and prosecutors.
Arnaud Montebourg, the economy and industry minister, complained in a TV interview that US laws allowing prosecution of actions by foreign companies beyond US territory gave it an unfair edge in the global “economic war”.
Officials and bank executives offer little defence of BNP. Although they say the Cuban transactions were relatively small, involving money being taken out of the country, not inward financing.
Paris is angry over what the officials call the “crazily disproportionate” scale of the likely punishment. They say it could not only damage BNP permanently, but also have a wider systemic effect on France and Europe by driving international customers away and reducing the ability of banks to lend to the struggling economy.
In retaliation, ministers have made clear there would be an impact on the transatlantic trade partnership talks that US President Barack Obama is keen to bring to fruition next year. There is little public enthusiasm for the talks in France, so throwing a spanner in the works would not cost President François Hollande much politically.
“You can’t have an improvement in trade between two countries if one side behaves like this,” a senior government official said.
He said Paris would also take the issue to the Financial Stability Board, the international body set up under the G20 to monitor the global financial system.
Beyond that, officials say France would support efforts to persuade bank clients to carry out international trade and finance transactions in the euro instead of the dollar.
They acknowledge this is not something that will change quickly, but Paris believes there could be a boomerang effect on the US if it is seen to be over-aggressively pursuing extraterritorial cases against banks such as BNP.
“In the longer term, the Chinese want to make the renminbi an international currency and the Russians also want to move more transactions away from the dollar. You could see a change in equilibrium. Not very quickly, of course, but maybe over 10 years,” said the regulatory official.

WWD : Lululemon Shares Up as Founder Mulls Shake-up

Lululemon Shares Up as Founder Mulls Shake-up

Shares of Lululemon Athletica Inc. rose nearly 3 percent in early trading Monday on indications that founder and former chairman Chip Wilson is weighing options to change the company’s management or even its ownership.

Wilson, who holds 27.7 percent of the company’s stock, was unsuccessful in his efforts earlier this month to unseat non-executive chairman Michael Casey and director RoAnn Costin from their seats on Lululemon’s board. He did not contest the reelection of Laurent Potdevin, who succeeded Christine Day as chief executive of the firm following a search in which Wilson was personally involved.

In that election at the firm’s annual meeting on June 11, Potdevin received 118.8 million affirmative votes for his election to the board while Casey and Costin each received 79.7 million votes. Wilson owns 40.2 million shares of Lululemon, according to the company’s definitive proxy filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission in April.

Wilson said on the day of the annual meeting that he is enthusiastic about the company’s new management “that I helped put in place” but was “concerned that the board is not aligned with the core values of product and innovation on which Lululemon was founded and on which the company thrived. As a 27 percent shareholder in the company, I believe change is now needed at the board level to increase shareholder value.”

He characterized the board as being “heavily weighted towards short-term results at the expense of product, culture and brand and longer-term corporate goals.”

Shares rose $1.17, or 2.9 percent, to $41.40 in the first hour of Nasdaq trading Monday on a report in the Wall Street Journal that Wilson had retained Goldman Sachs & Co. with an eye to a board shake-up or possible buy-out with private equity partners. Goldman declined to comment on the report and calls to a spokesman for Wilson weren’t returned Monday morning.

Wilson founded Lululemon in 1998 and only relinquished the chair of the Vancouver-based firm prior to this month’s annual meeting. While hardly as controversial a figure as Dov Charney, the recently ousted founder and ceo of American Apparel Inc., he complicated Lululemon’s public relations difficulties when, in the midst of a recall of its overly sheer black Luon yoga pants last year, he said that the pants weren’t right for “some women’s bodies.”

Wilson’s departure as chairman was disclosed in December at the same time that Potdevin’s appointment as ceo was announced. Wilson remains a director of Lululemon and isn't scheduled to stand for reelection to the board until the company's 2016 annual meeting.

(Makor) Top Trading Ideas: Long Yahoo / Short Softbank

Top Trading Ideas: Back to use Softbank as a hedge vs. Yahoo BUY YAHOO (YHOO) / SHORT SOFTBANK (9984 JP)

We recommend going from a long Softbank position to short Softbank as a hedge to our recommended long position in Yahoo. This is as the discount differential between the two stocks has widened again in favor of Yahoo. This is also reflected in the relative performance of Yahoo vs. Softbank. The relationship is very mean reverting.

Full report attached

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(BFW) *ALTICE STARTS SALE OF ABOUT 18M SHARES

 BN 06/23 16:39 *ALTICE LAUNCHES SALE OF ABOUT 18 MILLION SHARES
 BN 06/23 16:37 *ALTICE LAUNCHES SHARE PRIMARY PLACING (ATC NA) VIA DEUTSCHE BK
*ALTICE STARTS SALE OF ABOUT 18M SHARES
2014-06-23 16:41:51.40 GMT

--ANDREA SNYDER

-0- Jun/23/2014 16:41 GMT

(BFW) Monsanto Said to Have Weighed Tax-Inspired $40b Syngenta Deal

BFW 06/23 16:16 *MONSANTO-SYNGENTA TALKS SAID TO HAVE ENDED WEEKS AGO
 BN 06/23 16:16 *MONSANTO-SYNGENTA TALKS SAID TO HAVE ENDED WEEKS AGO
BFW 06/23 16:16 *MONSANTO SAID TO HAVE WEIGHED TAX-INSPIRED $40BLN SYNGENTA DEAL
Monsanto Said to Have Weighed Tax-Inspired $40b Syngenta Deal
2014-06-23 16:16:24.383 GMT


By Vivek Shankar
     June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Talks said to have ended weeks ago,
Bloomberg reports.

Link to Company News:{MON US <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{SYNN VX <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Vivek Shankar at +1-415-617-7169 or
vshankar3@bloomberg.net