Asian Market Update: China property names rally after reports of potential easing of curbs; Copper spikes after a powerful and shallow 8.2 earthquake off Chile
***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: -5.0% (largest decline in 8-months) V -2.0%E; Y/Y: 23.2% V 27.9%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB JOB VACANCIES: +2.6% V -1.7% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN MAR MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 54.8% V 55.7% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥219.9T V ¥204.8T PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: -0.1% (first decline in 4 month) V +0.9% PRIOR
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +1.5%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 1,880, Jun gold +0.2% at $1,282, May crude oil flat at $99.75/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Chinese property sector saw some relief following a report from Shanghai Securities News indicating the govt in some of the lower tier cities - more vulnerable to a housing downturn - are considering easing some of the curbs. Specifically, the city of Changsha in Hunan Province and Hangzhou in Zhejiang Province officials are said to have deemed the curbs in place to achieve their desired effect. Furthermore, press source goes on to say that there is "no doubt" the govt will ease home buying curbs in tier-2 and tier-3 cities. Note that earlier today, China Index Academy report on property price trends in March saw sequential gains slow for the 3rd consecutive month to 0.38% m/m to CNY11.0K/sqm v 0.54% rise in February.
- Northern areas of Chile have ordered mass evacuations after a massive 8.2 magnitude earthquake that struck 60 miles offshore at a shallow depth of just 12.5 miles. Initial reports suggested 5 fatalities and large landslides disrupting road and highway travel. Several mining names said their facilities were too far away to be effected, however Codelco - the state-owned copper company - evacuated employees at its Ventanas site. May copper spiked over 1% above $3.07 on possibility of mining disruptions in the world's top copper producing country. Aftershocks of heightened seismic activity in the Pacific were also felt as far as New Zealand, where NZD/USD fell some 50pips below $0.8590.
- Tokyo markets got a boost from strong economic data in the US session, with rising treasury yields translating into stronger dollar/weaker yen and subsequently higher equity prices. USD/JPY hit 9-week highs above 103.90, while Nikkei225 breached the psychological 15,000 mark - also its 3-week high. BOJ March Tankan survey revealed diminishing expectations of the economy being able to achieve the 2% inflation target, noting that firms of all sizes see CPI at 1.5% in 1 year and just 1.7% in five years. This follows overnight disappointing manufacturing Tankan for Q1, which prompted economists at Nomura to forecast more BOJ policy easing in July.
- Australia reported a large drop in building permits which could potentially soothe some of the recent RBA concern regarding the overheating property market. Note however that this is typically a fairly volatile data series. Moreover, JPMorgan economists suggested that despite today's drop in the headline figure, there is still a clear uptrend in single family dwellings. AUD/USD fell about 15pips toward $0.9220 on the release.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3 yr JGB, ¥250B in 3-5 yr JGB, and ¥400B in JGBs with maturities of 5-10 yrs - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 2033 Bonds, avg yield 4.71%, bid-to-cover 4.85x - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -5.8M (first draw in 6 weeks; Largest draw since Jan 7th) v +1Me - (CN) China MoF sells CNY28B in 7-year Bonds at average yield of 4.33% - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 2.1 tonnes to 811.0 tonnes (lowest since Mar 7th; 2nd consecutive decline)
***Equities*** US markets: - APOL: Reports Q2 $0.28 v $0.18e, R$679.1M v $688Me; -6.0% afterhours - MNKD: FDA advisory panel votes in favor of Afrezza inhaled drug as a treatment for Type 1 diabetes; Follow up: FDA Advisory Committee recommends approval of AFREZZ, MannKind Corporation's Investigational Drug to Treat Diabetes; +110.5% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Financials: China Vanke 000002.CN +3.1%, Poly Real Estate Group 600048.CN +6.0%, Huayuan Property 600743.CN +10.2% (some cities in China discuss to ease home purchase curbs) - Materials: Anhui Conch Cement 600585.CN +2.8%, Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement 000789.CN +2.2% (rise in profitability in China cement industry); Zhejiang Furun 600070.CN +4.4% (FY13 results) - Industrials: Chengdu Road & Bridge Engineering 002628.CN +3.3% (awarded contract); Fong's Industries 641.HK +23.3% (enters JV to redevelop land); GrainCorp GNC.AU +1.9% (ADM may increase stake); Toyota Motor Corp 7203.JP +1.5% (Mar China vehicle results; comments from Nomura) - Technology: Renesas Electronics Corp 6723.JP +9.8% (speculation on Apple's bid in LCD unit); Han's Laser Technology 002008.CN +3.4% (awarded order from Apple); Liaoning Julong Financial Equipment 300202.CN +2.0% (FY13 results); Shenzhen O-film Tech 002456.CN +4.0% (to develop fingerprint technology)
Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Sets Fresh Record High
The stock market kicked off April on an upbeat note with the Nasdaq Composite (+1.6%) leading the charge. The S&P 500 (+0.7%) settled at a fresh record high of 1885.52 with eight sectors registering gains while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) lagged
In the absence of notable pre-market data or earnings, the major averages began the day with a steady climb that was assisted by upbeat action in Europe, where markets in France, Germany, and Great Britain posted solid gains between 0.5% and 0.8%.
For the second day in a row, the Nasdaq began the day in the lead, maintaining its outperformance throughout the session. The early strength of biotechnology (IBB +2.2%) propelled the initial advance while the index was kept near its session high into the afternoon by the daylong outperformance of the technology sector (+1.3%).
The tech sector received considerable support from several of its top components. The largest sector member, Apple (AAPL 541.65, +4.91), rose 0.9% while other large names like Cisco Systems (CSCO 23.10, +0.88),Google (GOOG 1134.89, +20.38), Oracle (ORCL 41.49, +0.58), and Qualcomm (QCOM 80.10, +1.24) gained between 1.4% and 3.9%.
Although the largest sector finished ahead of the broader market, that was not the case with all top-weighed groups. Financials (+0.4%) and energy (+0.5%) lagged while the discretionary space (+1.4%) finished in the lead.The growth-sensitive discretionary sector was underpinned by momentum names like Amazon.com (AMZN 342.99, +6.62), Netflix (NFLX 364.69, +12.66), and Priceline.com (PCLN 1251.37, +59.48), all of which struggled in March, but started April on an upbeat note. Shares of Ford (F 16.32, +0.72) also contributed, gaining 4.6% after the company reported a 3.0% year-over-year increase in monthly sales.
On the countercyclical side, consumer staples (-0.1%), telecom services (+0.3%), and utilities (-0.7%) ended behind the broader market while health care settled in-line with the S&P 500.
With stocks holding gains throughout the session, participants did not show strong interest in volatility protection, sending the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.10, -0.78) lower by 5.6%.
Treasuries registered modest losses with the benchmark 10-yr yieldclimbing four basis points to 2.76%.
Participation was on the light side as less than 700 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data was limited to February Construction Spending and the March ISM Index:
* Construction spending increased 0.1% in February after falling a downwardly revised 0.2% (from +0.1%) in January while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%. Extreme winter weather conditions in January and February were blamed for a general downturn in economic data; however, construction, which should feel the brunt of the negative winter effects, was largely in-line with recent trends. Thus, there is no reason to expect construction spending to surge due to pent up demand in the near future.
* The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 53.7 in March from 53.2 in February. The consensus expected the index to increase to 54.0. Extreme winter weather conditions were blamed for a deterioration in the ISM Manufacturing Index in January. Yet, as temperatures returned to normal, the ISM Manufacturing Index remained well below its Q4 2013 averages. This tells us that weakness in manufacturing activities was likely not tied to the adverse weather, but rather caused by cyclical trends.
Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while the March ADP Employment Change will be announced at 8:15 ET (consensus 215K). The day's data will be topped off with the February Factory Orders report (consensus 1.1%), which is set for a 10:00 ET release.
* Nasdaq Composite +2.2% YTD * Russell 2000 +2.2% YTD * S&P 500 +2.0% YTD * Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.3% YTD
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BN 04/01 18:46 *EDP COMMENTS IN E-MAILED STATEMENT BN 04/01 18:46 *IBERDROLA SELLS 1.26% STAKE IN EDP, CUTS HOLDING TO 1.58%
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*IBERDROLA SELLS 1.26% STAKE IN EDP, CUTS HOLDING TO 1.58% 2014-04-01 18:46:41.392 GMT
--ANDREA SNYDER
-0- Apr/01/2014 18:46 GMT
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Vivendi's Quick Exit Goal May Support Numericable as Cash Raised 2014-04-01 16:31:56.701 GMT
BI TELC EU SBKEYS Altice's move to raise the cash portion of its bid for SFR in retaliation to Bouygues, reported by Bloomberg News, may increase the deal's likelihood, given Vivendi's desire for a fast exit from SFR. The industry minister's preference for mobile consolidation via a Bouygues-SFR deal may be counteracted by the fact that the high indebtedness of Numericable-SFR unit would limit price competition and that a combination of Iliad and Bouygues may be a more viable alternative.
|0|0|371560|120320880|BI TELCE COML |4-2-A-Data-1|A12||EUR|R4472|BI TELCE COML |4-2-A-Data-1|A12||EUR|R4472|
This research note has been published by Bloomberg Industries. For more information, see BI <GO> -0- Apr/01/2014 16:31 GMT
Special Situations: short Altice / long Numericable
Overvalued holding co. structure ATC NA: Eur 32.35; NUM FP: Eur 29.00 April 1, 2014 We recommend shorting Altice while going long Numericable and other European cable assets which are relatively undervalued. As discussed in our recent Euro Telecom event driven report, Altice controls Numericable of which it owns 40% as well as other cable/telecom assets primarily in Israel (HOT) with smaller interests in Portugal and the Benelux. While Numericable is listed, the other cable assets aren’t. In fact, HOT was recently taken private by Altice. The implied value of the unlisted businesses are way too high. For Altice to be fairly valued, the non-listed assets would have to sell on more than 5x ev/sales and at least 13x ebitda. These are excessive valuation metrics given Altice’s ebitda margins. We think the non-listed assets should be valued more toward 4x ev/sales and 10x ebitda. In that case, the holding company would be on a premium of 35% to NAV. We recommend going short Altice and long Numericable pro-rata of the capital structure (the trade could currently be overhedged in Numericable as the two stocks are likely to be highly correlated during the SFR offer). The resulting short exposure can be hedged buying TNET BB, ZONOP PL, JAZ SM. Unfortunately, it is difficult to hedge the Israeli cable/telecom assets as none of the available possible comps (Cellcom, Partner, Bezeq) are close enough to HOT, the Israeli subs (the Israel “risk” could be hedged via shorting the above comps. However, we do not think this makes a compelling trade right now. On the other hand, Jazztel, Zon Optimus, and Telenet could all be potentially bought out). FULL REPORT ATTACHED