>>> ECB's Draghi: Worsening of medium-term inflation would be context for QE


ECB's Draghi: Worsening of medium-term inflation would be context for QE - comments from Dutch banking conference
- ECB unanimously committed to using unconventional and conventional policy instruments to deal with risk of a period of too prolonged low inflation 
- Undue tightening of policy stance could be addressed with lowering of rate corridor including a negative deposit rate 
- Impairments of policy transmissions could be addressed with targeted LTROs or ABS purchase programs 
- ECB cannot make policy in favor of subsets of EU nations 
- Rising euro reflects return of confidence in region 
- FX rate increasingly important for policy 
- Lower long term interest rates could boost inflation {http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2014/html/sp140424.en.html }

**Note: Comments in line with Draghi post rate decision press conference earlier in April

>>> FT : Alstom/GE: politics would prove a big obstacle (Full Article to follow)

Alstom/GE: politics would prove a big obstacle

Alstom shares are still trading up about 13 per cent on Thursday, following a report from Bloomberg that it's in talks with US giant General Electric over a blockbuster $13bn bid for the French trainmaker.
As fastFT has already reported, Alstom's rather cagey effort to defect speculation aren't exactly being digested as an outright denial of a potential deal, particularly one that many analysts think would make sense.
The FT's Michael Stothard, however, has some crucial context on the politics, which may prove to be the biggest obstacle if an offer materialises.
The deal would see a French national champion, which employees 18,000 people in France and was rescued in a state-backed bailout in 2004, sold to an American company.
It might also be seen as a slap in the government's face from Bouygues, which received an enormous amount of support from the state for its ultimately unsuccessful bid to buy telecoms operators SFR from Vivendi.
Alstom has been hit by the shift in the European energy landscape away from thermal power in recent years, as utilities cut back on orders for traditional coal and gas-fired plants.
Shares are still down 25 per cent since the start of 2011.
The engineering group in January cut its operating margin and cash flow forecasts for this year, citing weakness in its thermal power division. The group last year announced that it was cutting 1,300 jobs, mainly at its coal-fired boiler business.
The deal would be unlikely to face too many competition concerns, as GE's power equipment and diesel freight locomotives do not generally compete with Alstom products, although there is some overlap in gas turbines and nuclear power.

(Exane) Alstom : Reviewing the GE Alstom case

* GE said to be in talks to buy Alstom for USD13bn
GE is reportedly in talks to buy Alstom for USD13bn (reported bid price) in a move which has the
support of Bouygues (c.29% stake), according to Bloomberg. Alstom is going through a balance
sheet repair exercise at the moment with the recent disposal of a heat exchanger business to
Triton for EUR730m and a dual track to either IPO or sell a minority stake in its transport business
to an industrial partner. But overall Alstom remains a relatively small player in most of its power
segments. See our report Eyes wide open

* Reviewing the strategic rationale for GE
GE is present in all of Alstom’s businesses and purchased Alstom’s power business in the late
1990s. An acquisition would represent for GE a business extension in passenger rail, a synergetic
combination in transmission and a strategic takeout of a weaker competitor in power generation.
Other parties that could be interested in acquiring Alstom include Siemens and Areva in our view.
Political support is key given Alstom’s large presence in France with 18k employees and 21
manufacturing sites. Whatever happens, it would put into question Alstom’s sustainability as a
stand-alone entity.

* Transaction metric – 13x EBIT March 14
A USD13bn price tag would imply GE paying EUR30/share for Alstom (+c.25%) and transaction
multiples of 0.7x sales and 12.9x EBIT FY March 14 before synergies. Alstom trades on 10.6x
EBIT March 15, a c.15% discount to the sector. Alstom paid 16x EBIT for Areva T (December
2009); Siemens paid 12x EBIT for Alstom’s industrial power business in 2003. The few
transactions in the rail market made in the past range from 0.2x to 0.7x sales. Applying historical
transaction multiples to Alstom’s divisions on a March 2015 basis would imply a EUR26 share
price. A preliminary estimate of synergies ranges from EUR400m-600m, implying EUR6-9 per
Alstom share, with the lower end consistent with the implied bid premium. This analysis excludes a
review of costs linked to product rationalisation in wind or power. Ahead of any confirmation/denial,
we believe Alstom’s share price could surge c.10-15% today (implying 50% success rate).