Asian Market Update: China property sector, foreign direct investment continue to slow; Russia, Ukraine meet in Berlin
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA JULY ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: -17.0% (to $71.1B) V +0.2% PRIOR; YTD y/y: -0.4% (first decline since Mar 2013) vs +2.2% prior - (CN) CHINA JULY NEW HOME PRICES M/M: PRICES RISE IN 2 OF 70 CITIES V 8 PRIOR; Y/Y: PRICES RISE IN 65 OF 70 CITIES V 69 PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA JULY NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: -1.3% V 2.2% PRIOR; Y/Y: -0.2% V -2.0% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JULY PERFORMANCE SERVICES INDEX: 58.4 (3-month high) V 55.2 PRIOR - (TH) THAILAND Q2 GDP Q/Q: 0.9% V 0.7%E; Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.0%E - (SG) SINGAPORE JULY ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -7.9% V -15.9%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: 2.5% V 0.9%E; Y/Y: -3.3% V -4.0%E - (UK) UK AUG RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICES M/M: -2.9% V -0.8% PRIOR (2nd consecutive decline, biggest decline in 20 months); Y/Y: 5.3% V 6.5% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 +0.1%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.4%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Sept S&P500 +0.3% at 1,957
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Dec gold -0.4% at $1,300, Sept crude oil -0.5% at $96.89/brl, Sept Copper flat $3.11/lb - (KR) South Korea Finance Ministry sells 10-yr govt bonds at average yield of 3.069% - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥450B in CP - (CN) China may cut gasoline and diesel price by as much as CNY200/ton on Aug 19th (local time) due to falling oil price - financial press
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - Ukraine downplayed the border crossing and subsequent altercation with Russian military vehicles that sent the markets reeling on Friday. Instead, investors are more enthused by reports of an agreement between Russia and Ukraine authorities on processing humanitarian aid across the border under direct supervision of the Red Cross. Meanwhile, foreign ministers from the two countries joined their counterparts from Germany and France in Berlin on Sunday for talks to set out a roadmap toward a ceasefire. While the progress is reportedly slow, more meetings are scheduled for Monday. Markets are taking comfort in more genuine indication of efforts to end hostilities by Moscow, sending S&P futures modestly higher.
- Several notable developments in China indicate more turbulence in the property market and declining investor confidence. July home prices in all 70 cities fell for the 3rd straight month and by a larger margin of 1.2% m/m. Prices were also down in 64 out of 70 cities, a record high and up from last month's 52. China's largest property developer Vanke also posted a 1% drop in H1 revenue and flat profit growth, even though sales area and contracted sales still grew double digits. Authorities continue to manage the descent, as China Construction Bank (CCB) looked to re-define "first home mortgages" for homes in Shanghai to boost demand. Outside the property space, July FDI fell on YTD y/y basis for the first time in well over a year, and China Commerce Ministry warned the economy is facing pressure in meeting annual trade growth forecast of 7.5%
- Among key Australia earnings, gold producer Newcrest was off by about 1% as profits fell even though the company affirmed FY15 output targets. NAB is off by over 1% on Q3 update, noting 1% slide in revenue was doe to lower markets income causing subdued volatility and reduced trading opportunities. BHP was speculated to spin off a new mining company with A$14B in "unwanted assets" when it also reports results this week.
- USD majors are little changed with the exception of cable, where a hawkish set of comments from BOE Gov Carney undid some of the damage from the BOE inflation report and reined in central bank expectations. Carney said BOE does not need wage growth to start raising rates, and that the economy is more than half way to full recovery. GBP/USD opened higher and extended the rally to 40pips above $1.6730 ahead of the London open.
***Equities*** US markets: - UNP: Collision of two UNP-operated trains in Arkansas left one person dead and two injured - press - BIIB: PLEGRIDY(Peginterferon Beta-1a) Approved in the US for the Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis - TSLA: Increases warranty duration for the Model S drive unit to 8 years and unlimited miles; will have a "moderately negative" effect on earnings in the short term - IBM: Receives CFIUS approval for x86-Based Server Divestiture to Lenovo - APA: Makes an oil discovery offshore in W Australia; Location may hold up to 300M barrels of crude oil - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Ansell ANN.AU +2.3% (FY14 results) - Financials: Ardent Leisure Group AAD.AU +2.5% (FY14 results); Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank 3618.HK -2.5% (H1 results); National Australia Bank NAB.AU -1.4% (Q3 results); China Vanke 000002.CN -0.2% (H1 results) - Materials: Newcrest Mining -0.8% (FY14 results); OZ Minerals OZL.AU +3.0% (Carrapateena Project pre-feasibility study) - Energy: Sinopec Engineering Group 2386.HK -4.2% (H1 results); China Coal Energy 1898.HK flat (H1 results) - Industrials: Boart Longyear BLY.AU +5.1% (amends credit facility); Harbin Electric 1133.HK -7.7% (H1 results); James Hardie Industries JHX.AU +3.2% (analyst action); Aurizon Holdings AZJ.AU -3.2% (FY14 results) - Technology: Sunny Optical Technology Group 2382.HK +6.0% (H1 results); Brambles Limited BXB.AU +1.3% (BlackRock ceasing to be substantial holder); Lenovo 992.HK +2.4% (receives approval on IBM server deal) - Healthcare: Chugai Pharmaceutical 4519.JP +14.3% (denies speculation over acquisition by Roche)
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BN 08/17 20:30 *OBAMA SAYS FAILURE OF ISIL-HELD DAM WOULD THREATEN U.S. EMBASSY BN 08/17 20:29 *OBAMA TELLS CONGRESS HE AUTHORIZED AIRSTRIKES OVER MOSUL DAM BN 08/17 20:29 *LETTER SAYS AIRSTRIKES DONE IN COORDINATION WITH IRAQI GOVT BN 08/17 20:27 *OBAMA NOTIFIES CONGRESS IN LETTER, ACCORDING TO E-MAIL BN 08/17 20:26 *IRAQ OPS ARE LIMITED IN NATURE, DURATION, SCOPE, LETTER SAYS BN 08/17 20:25 *OBAMA NOTIFIES CONGRESS THAT HE AUTHORIZED AIRSTRIKES IN IRAQ
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Obama Notifies Congress That He Authorized Airstrikes in Iraq 2014-08-17 20:32:25.256 GMT
By Dan Hart and Angela Greiling Keane Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- “These military operations will be limited in their scope and duration as necessary to support the Iraqi forces in their efforts to retake and establish control of this critical infrastructure site,” the president wrote in a letter released by White House. * Airstrikes conducted in area of Mosul Dam * Obama made notification to speaker of the House and president pro tempore of Senate
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To contact the reporter on this story: Dan Hart in Washington at +1-202-624-1870 or dahart@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Angela Greiling Keane at +1-202-654-1287 or agreilingkea@bloomberg.net
Rights reform unlikely ‘without leaving EU’
Senior Conservatives’ desire to claw back human rights powers from Europe could prove unworkable unless the UK leaves the European Union altogether, the justice secretary has been told by his own officials. Chris Grayling has been advised by Whitehall mandarins that the UK would be able to pull out of the EU human rights charter only if it leaves the EU, after officials concluded that the UK must remain committed to the charter as part of its treaty obligations. The advice was set down in the Ministry of Justice’s review of the "balance of competences" between Westminster and Brussels. The study is part of a government-wide exercise to assess whether the EU rules are encroaching too far on British national life. Most of the reviews released to date, covering areas such as the internal market in goods and trade, tourism and the environment, have concluded that the balance of powers between the UK and the EU is broadly correct. But the MoJ review on fundamental rights was more nuanced, noting a "divergence of views on where the balance of competences should lie." The report comes as the Tories grapple with how to wrest back powers over human rights from the Strasbourg court and the European Union. Conservatives have long been calling on the prime minister to reassert the sovereignty of parliament over the European Court of Human Rights, which implements many of the rights in the EU human rights charter, and replace it with a ‘British bill of rights’. They have been incensed by decisions about prisoners’ voting rights and the extradition of Abu Qatada, a radical preacher. David Cameron appeared to be heeding those calls last month when he removed Dominic Grieve as attorney general. Mr Grieve flatly opposed the UK’s withdrawal from the ECHR which, he argued, would have damaging consequences for Britain’s reputation while also undermining human rights around the world. But the report suggests that the UK cannot withdraw from the EU human rights charter without triggering a wider transgression of treaty obligations. This could also have implications regarding withdrawal from the ECHR given that the Strasbourg European Court of Justice upholds elements of the EU charter. "The government’s position is that, as long as the UK is a member of the EU, it has a duty to implement all EU law that applies to it," officials concluded in the report. "Setting aside fundamental rights would amount to a failure to give full effect to EU primary law and would therefore constitute a breach of the UK’s treaty obligations." Some British judges have also expressed concern that parliamentary sovereignty is being exported, but many human rights lawyers maintain that the Conservatives’ attempts to intervene in human rights laws and the European Convention is both unworkable and undesirable. A Conservative spokesman said on Sunday. "Since we have yet to finalise our plans and decide between a number of options, any comment now is pure speculation. However, the next Conservative manifesto will contain radical plans to reform our human rights law, which a majority Conservative government will deliver."
UK report into Muslim Brotherhood delayed
The publication of a UK government report into the Muslim Brotherhood has been delayed as ministers and officials wrangle over its findings, the Financial Times has learnt. David Cameron asked Sir John Jenkins, Britain’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia, to conduct an investigation into whether the Egyptian political group should be classified as a terrorist organisation. The prime minister did so after coming under heavy pressure from allies in the Gulf such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which has banned the organisation. Whitehall officials have told the FT the report has found the group should not be labelled a terrorist organisation, and in fact has found little evidence that its members are involved in terrorist activities. But ministers are so concerned about the reaction from Britain’s Middle East allies that they have stalled publication for several weeks, according to two people with knowledge of the report. One person said: "Sir John will say that the Brotherhood is not a terrorist organisation. The Saudis and Emiratis will then be very upset with us." According to one senior person in the Foreign Office, the Abu Dhabi royal family, the al-Nahyan, have been particularly vociferous about the dangers posed by the Brotherhood. The person said: "They complain that their countrymen do not feel safe in London with Brotherhood people walking around. The pressure has been quite sharp." Mr Cameron spoke to Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, on Thursday. According to an official record of the meeting sent to journalists by Number 10, the two spoke about Iraq and Gaza, but not Sir John’s report. Since the government commissioned the report on the Brotherhood, the UK and its western allies have grown increasingly concerned about financial support for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, known as Isis, which has over-run swaths of north and central Iraq from its base in eastern Syria, helped by reported flows of money from private donors in the Gulf. The Brotherhood, which dates back to 1928, came to power in Egypt’s election in 2012 before being ousted by a military coup last year. Since losing power, Cairo’s military-backed interim government has designated it a terror organisation, jailing its leaders and blaming it for a number of attacks – including the murder in February of three tourists on a bus in Egypt’s Sinai peninsula. The Brotherhood has denied responsibility. Earlier this year a court in Cairo sentenced 529 Brotherhood members to death in a significant escalation of its crackdown. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of Britain’s closest diplomatic and commercial allies in the Middle East, have embarked on their own operations against the Brotherhood. The Saudis have followed the Egyptian example of banning it altogether. The Brotherhood has been operating in the UK since 1995. Fears that it could be engaged in extremist activities in the country were enough to trigger Mr Cameron’s demand in April for an investigation, but some in the coalition government believe that was an overreaction which could backfire. One senior government figure warned at the time: "It risks turning supporters of a moderate, non-violent organisation that campaigns for democracy into radicals." According to Whitehall sources, Sir John has found that the group does not pose a significant terror threat in the UK. His findings were due to be published by the end of last month, but government officials indicated that ministers were still finalising how they would present the conclusions. Number 10 declined to comment.
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Roche Hostile Bid for Chugai Still Possible: Morgan Stanley MUFG 2014-08-17 20:37:18.379 GMT
By Sarah Gill Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- If media report of Roche buyout interest is true it is positive for Chugai shrs; is ~35% premium over current shr price if remaining stake bought at $10b: Morgan Stanley MUFG analyst Shinichiro Muraoka in a note * Restrictions on Roche’s stake have expired so Roche can change its stake without Chugai agreement * Rates Chugai overweight * Chugai 5 buys, 7 holds, 2 sells: Bloomberg data * NOTE: Chugai says it’s not in talks with Roche on buyout; Bloomberg earlier reported Roche said in talks to buy rest of Chugai in $10b deal * NOTE: Roche owned ~62% of Chugai as of June 30 * NOTE Friday Chugai ADRs rose 19% on 2,135 shrs; Chugai shrs rose 24% in Frankfurt trading on 2,527 shrs; Roche shrs fell 1%
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To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Gill in sydney at +61-2-9777-8641 or sgill23@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jan Dahinten at +65-6212-1164 or jdahinten@bloomberg.net