SFR deal numbers add up for Numericable
Only a few months ago, mention of the name Patrick Drahi in France would probably have provoked a chorus of “Who?” The low-profile Franco-
Israeli billionaire may have spent years piecing together the country’s largest cable network, but few of its customers had ever heard of him.
That changed last month when Mr Drahi’s Numericable won a bidding war against French construction and telecoms conglomerate Bouygues to buy SFR, the country’s second-biggest mobile operator, owned by Vivendi.
The deal – Numericable has agreed to pay Vivendi €13.5bn in cash and a 20 per cent stake in the merged company – splashed Mr Drahi’s image all over the business pages. It also turned him and his company into a serious contender in one of Europe’s most competitive telecoms markets.
Assuming that the country’s competition authorities agree the deal, the new-look Numericable will be almost unrecognisable in size. Analysts’ estimates suggest that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, a measure of profitability, will grow from just over €600m last year to roughly €3bn this year at the merged company.
The customer base will also swell as Numericable absorbs SFR’s almost 22m mobile subscribers, or about 28 per cent of the market.
Simon Weeden, a telecoms analyst at Citigroup, argues that synergies will come through cross-selling as Numericable offers its internet and fixed-line customers SFR’s mobile services.
A second will come from moving a chunk – 20-30 per cent initially, according to Numericable’s estimates – of SFR’s 5m internet and fixed-line customers to Numericable’s high-speed broadband service, presently available to about 5m homes in France.
SFR has to pay Orange, the market leader, about €9 per customer per month for use of the so-called “last mile” connection into people’s homes – something it would no longer have to once it can use Numericable’s infrastructure. Numericable has just over 4 per cent of France’s overall broadband market – but almost 60 per cent of its very high-speed segment.
A third will create savings as SFR’s launch of 4G services takes advantage of Numericable’s comprehensive fibre network in France’s urban areas.
“You need high-density cell towers to provide 4G and that is not cheap,” says Mr Weeden. “After the merger, SFR will be able to make use of Numericable’s existing underground cable.”
Questions remain, however. At a press conference in March, Mr Drahi said that his intention was to use SFR’s strong brand and marketing strengths to help close the gap between the €33 a month on average that it receives from each of its customers and the €42 that Numericable gets.
“We are here to create value for our company,” he said.
But doing that requires reversing the cut-throat, price-cutting backdrop that has characterised the French telecoms sector ever since Iliad, the low-cost provider controlled by billionaire Xavier Niel, began offering mobile services in January 2012.
As Mr Weeden of Citi puts it, “Numericable is making a bet that the worst of the competitive trauma is over, that the end game is approaching.”
Then there is the resulting company’s net debt, which is likely to start out at about five times ebitda – roughly twice the two or 2.5 times leverage that is typical of European telecom companies.
“Cable companies tend to be highly geared because they are growing revenues and cash flow,” explains Jerry Dellis, an analyst at Jefferies. “Life is different for telecoms companies. That means that Numericable is going to have to be disciplined.”
Influencing the extent to which Numericable rises to these challenges is whether the French telecoms sector will undergo further consolidation. Two years ago, as the government granted a fourth mobile licence to Mr Niel’s Iliad, the thinking was that the market needed more competition.
That is exactly what it got and average revenue per user has been falling ever since, hitting revenues and profits.
Today, the socialist government of President François Hollande seems to be tipping the other way, and it is no secret that Arnaud Montebourg, economy minister, would like to see three operators rather than four.
If he gets his way, and prices not only stabilise but possibly even increase, analysts think that Numericable’s outlook will improve considerably.
“Fewer competitors should cool the market and help prices,” says Mr Dellis of Jefferies.
“That would play to Drahi’s strategy.”