Russia's largest oil company Rosneft has applied for government assistance for the repayment of debt recently. Two Swiss commodity giant appears to provide a billion hole, assumed an analyst - and supports his thesis with amazing observations.
Hamburg - There was a fairly comprehensive emergency, the Russia's largest oil company Rosneft last Thursday sent to the Russian government. Under the pressure of Western sanctions Rosneft sought Show chartgovernment help, such as the Russian newspaper "Vedomosti" reported. The company had requested inter alia to support the eradication of the equivalent of 31 billion euros of debt, it said in the report - the Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich confirmed indirectly. "The ministries will decide in the next two weeks, otherwise - no comment".
According to Russian media sees Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev such assistance rather skeptical. Although Rosneft drilling despite the sanctions blad together with ExxonMobil in the Arctic for oil. But the economic situation of the largest publicly traded oil producer in the world has deteriorated dramatically in recent weeks, the oil analyst Philip publisher stated now the business news site Quartz .
According to publisher Rosneft missing up to 10 billion dollars for the repayment of loans in the coming year. According to his analysis put two Swiss commodities trader Rosneft currently under severe pressure. The story behind it is slightly convoluted - but publisher theses are valid as Quartz reported .
Aftermath of a 55-billion-dollar deal
In autumn 2012, Rosneft bought for $ 55 billion TNK-BP, a joint venture between the British oil company BP and four Russian oligarchs. The deal, which was finalized in March 2013, Rosneft was the world's largest publicly traded oil producer. But for that the Russians had on the capital market to borrow $ 40 billion. Among the biggest donors were the two Swiss commodities trading giant Vitol and Glencore, which the Russians $ 10 billion cash loan - as an advance payment for the delivery of approximately 280,000 barrels of oil per day over the next five years.
Too bad that the USA and Europe on July 14 this year imposed economic sanctions that Rosneft also met among others. Since that time, loans are forbidden to run longer than 90 days. Rosneft CEO Viktor Sechin said at the time that the sanctions his company would not make as Rosneft have $ 20 billion on the high edge. Nevertheless Sechin requested only one month later, the Kremlin for help in repayment of debt.
Publisher has a well-founded explanation for why the situation in just four weeks could change so strongly. He watched the short selling of oil futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) a little over a year ago when the deal between Rosneft and TNK-BP has been completed. This subject then within a few weeks to forty percent, as Vitol and Glencore apparently about absicherten their loan to Rosneft, according to publisher. Since the economic sanctions the number of available short sale contracts, however, fell by nearly 30 percent - and are now almost back to that level that was common before the Rosneft's acquisition by BP-TNK.
Part 2: Sharp decline in oil futures contracts as further evidence
Publishers believed, therefore, that Vitol and Glencore to exercise their rights in order to unwind the credit - and reclaim their money by the end of next year.
This also fits that the number of available on the ICE oil futures for April and December 2015 has declined sharply, according to publisher. Vitol and Glencore appears to solve their short positions, as they have no more need for a secure its lending business. Such orders of magnitude in loss on interest in oil futures were in any case "very unusual," says publisher.
Although the loans between Vitol, Glencore and Rosneft are not directly affected by the sanctions, since the 90-day rule applies only to future loans. But publishers said that Vitol and Glencore closely monitor the current situation - and retire with good reason from the store with Rosneft. For further sanctions against Russia could cause they would not get their contract level compatible oil.
Chinese likely to play emergency funder
This would also explain the sudden decline in available oil futures contracts. Because the worst thing that could happen to the two Swiss commodity giant, had a high number of short sales for oil futures contracts on the books when the Rosneft oil can not be delivered. Then Vitol and Glencore might have to buy expensive oil in the world market in order to meet their futures can.
Vitol would not comment Quartz opposite to shops, Glencore did not answer an e-mail request. Also, investors do not trust the current complex situation in Rosneft. Since mid-July, the price of Rosneft's share is Show chart5.2 euro dropped to 4.7 euros.
In order to solve his money problem with the Swiss, Rosneft is likely now probably turn to the Chinese. This year, Rosneft has with the China National Petroleum Corporation signed a deal , which includes around 63 billion dollars in money-advance payments against oil supplies by 2018. It is not yet clear how much of this sum to arrive by the end of next year with Rosneft. But it is likely that Sechin speaks with the Chinese soon large and rapidly paid the first cash installments.
