(BFW) *TOTAL CEO SEES ROOM FOR DIVIDEND RISE AS FREE CASH FLOW RISES...


 BN 05/16 09:17 *TOTAL CEO SEES ROOM FOR DIVIDEND RISE AS FREE CASH FLOW RISES
 BN 05/16 09:15 *TOTAL HAS STARTED A PLAN TO LOWER OPERATING COSTS, CEO SAYS
 BN 05/16 09:14 *TOTAL CEO SAYS COST INFLATION COULD START HURTING PROFITABILITY
 BN 05/16 09:13 *TOTAL CEO SAYS COST INFLATION IS AT HISTORIC HIGH
 BN 05/16 09:11 *TOTAL'S REFINING-CHEMICALS ON TRACK FOR 2015 TARGET, CEO SAYS
 BN 05/16 09:08 *TOTAL CEO SPEAKING AT SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING IN PARIS
BFW 05/16 09:08 *TOTAL IS STICKING TO 2017 OUTPUT TARGET OF 3 MLN BOE/D: CEO
 BN 05/16 09:08 *TOTAL WILL EVALUATE EXPLORATION PUSH AT YEAR-END, CEO SAYS
 BN 05/16 09:07 *TOTAL IS STICKING TO 2017 OUTPUT TARGET OF 3 MLN BOE/D: CEO

*TOTAL CEO SEES ROOM FOR DIVIDEND RISE AS FREE CASH FLOW RISES
2014-05-16 09:19:04.253 GMT

--BENJAMIN DOW

-0- May/16/2014 09:19 GMT

(BofA-ML) "Booming" painful - Quantitative Europe

* The biggest monthly fall in macro data in 2 years
Our European Composite Macro Index (CMI) had the biggest monthly fall in 2 years
as falling 1) government bond yields, 2) leading indicators and 3) EPS revisions
outweighed the improvement in 4) GDP expectations, 5) inflation data and 6)
business confidence. We remain in the ‘slowdown’ phase and our model
recommends a more cautious/defensive approach to investing in Europe.

* A ‘Slowdown’ is good for high quality, low risk, large caps
Novo-Nordisk, Shire, Anheuser-Busch InBev, Next, Geberit, Hennes & Mauritz,
Whitbread and Kerry Group are the top ranked ‘slowdown’ stocks (high quality,
low risk and large size). Alstom, Bouygues, Royal Bk Scot Grp, Erste Bank, RSA
Insurance Group, Barclays, Telecom Italia and Yara International are the bottom
ranked ‘slowdown’ stocks. For additional top and bottom ‘slowdown’ names

* Let Mr Bund be your guide, ‘slowdown’ = rotation
Pan EU government bond yields have been trending down since the start of the
year yet equity investors have yet to react sufficiently to this. The fall in German
bund yields is typical in a ‘slowdown’ where equities often drift sideways and a
“rotation” out of cyclicals/risk and into defensives/quality remains the key story.

* ‘Boom’ stocks down 5% in 2 weeks, ‘Slowdown’ outperforms
The May rotation is proving painful for those long high risk stocks. ‘Boom’ (-5.3 rel)
and ‘Recovery’ (-2.2 rel) stocks have been the underperformers. Elsewhere
‘Recession’ (+2.2 rel) and ‘Slowdown’ stocks (+0.3 rel) have outperformed.

WSJ : Giorgio Armani Posts Sales Growth

Giorgio Armani Posts Sales Growth
Revenue Grows to €2.19 Billion in 2013

The Italian iconic fashion house Giorgio Armani SpA said Friday its 2013 revenue grew 4.5% compared with the previous year, to €2.19 billion, thanks to growth in all markets, particularly in Europe.

Yet, despite the growth in Europe, the firm said its revenue increased 8.3% at constant rates compared with the previous year, signaling a strong impact from currency effects.

The retail side of the business grew more than the wholesale, posting a 6.9% increase at current exchange rate. The company, which is about to celebrate its 40th anniversary in business, said that its strong profitability will allow it to boost investments for future development.

Armani also said that its earnings before interest and tax or Ebit rose 18.2% compared with 2012, to €401 million.

Armani's labels range from a top-end red carpet collection called Armani Prive, to the main lines Giorgio Armani and Emporio Armani down to lower-end lines such as Armani Exchange and Armani Jeans.

Mr. Armani, 79, also said the company has bought the 50% stake of its fast-fashion line AX Armani Exchange that it didn't already own from Presidio Holdings Limited, which operated the label in a joint venture with the Armani group. The aim is to better control the quality of the product and the retail business, which is particularly important for the key U.S. market, the designer said in a statement. The brand consists of 270 stores and 3,000 employees. Mr. Armani also said that the company will continue to invest in the Armani Exchange brand in the next two years.

Giorgio Armani said that the total of Armani stores around the world, including all brands, is 2473. It invested around €100 million to better integrate the supply chain, the company added.

WSJ : Be Choosy When Riding Modi Wave

Be Choosy When Riding Modi Wave

Narendra Modi's apparent victory in India's national election comes as no surprise to sophisticated investors who've been betting on such an outcome. But the ordinary global investor now interested in India might want to ensure there are no surprises.

Even before the votes were counted, India's benchmark CNX Nifty stock index had soared 18% this year in dollar terms and rose more Friday as results came in. Investors not only thought Mr. Modi would come to power, but also that he would repeat his previous performance as the infrastructure-boosting, red-tape-cutting chief minister of Gujarat state.

That stock rally has room to run. Only a small amount of capital has poured into India this year, with foreign institutions bringing a net $6 billion to stocks through mid-May, small compared with the roughly $20 billion during all of crisis-ridden 2013, notes Samir Arora at Helios Capital, a hedge fund. Now that Mr. Modi's coalition looks set to secure a larger parliamentary majority than polls predicted, hopes will swell further.

A big election mandate should buoy expectations among his supporters that Mr. Modi will energize infrastructure spending and manufacturing. Yet investors looking for passive ways to play this face a curious dilemma: they are not entirely buying into a potential Modi boom.

Take some of the biggest India exchange-traded funds listed in New York, such as BlackRock's iShares MSCI India exchange-traded fund, which tracks the MSCI India index. Software and pharmaceuticals make up 28% of the holdings, mostly representing companies who sell outside India and whose reported earnings will weaken as capital inflows leave the rupee stronger against the dollar. The ETF's consumer-sector holdings could fall by the wayside as investors disregard defensive stocks, or comprise firms such as Tata Motors, which gets most of its revenue selling Jaguars and Land Rovers world-wide. The bank, industrial or energy stocks actually sensitive to a domestically driven Modi boom contribute only 55%.

ETFs tracking the Nifty index, such as BlackRock's other India ETF, the iShares India 50, fare better, since the Nifty allocates about 62% toward cyclical stocks. The Wisdom Tree India ETF, which links to its own index, is a further improvement with 70% weighted to cyclicals.

India's top indices may rebalance over time, though until then, investors should watch for what sectors they're betting on. Of course, the more important risk is whether Mr. Modi delivers not just an election sugar high, but also the policies India needs for long-term growth.

(The New Yorker) So Long, Israel; Hello, Berlin

So Long, Israel; Hello, Berlin {http://nyr.kr/T9Y4Gp}

At the St. Oberholz café on Rosenthaler Platz, in Berlin, a trio in their early thirties chatted animatedly in Hebrew about dating in Berlin, Jungian therapy, and the theatre troupe that they were in the process of founding to explore German-Jewish dynamics in the third generation after the Holocaust. “When I came to Berlin, I felt like I was home,” Nora Fischer, a striking actress with blond dreadlocks, who moved here three months ago, said. Her companions, an opera singer and a dancer, both recent transplants from Israel, nodded as she added, “Here just feels so right.”

The three artists are part of a wave of young Israelis moving to the German capital. While no one knows for sure how many Israeli expats now call Berlin home—in part because descendants of German citizens persecuted by the Nazis are frequently eligible for German citizenship—the Israeli Embassy in Berlin puts the number at ten thousand to fifteen thousand, and growing. The Israelis who choose Berlin tend to be young, creative, highly educated, politically minded, and left-leaning; they form an intelligentsia that includes novelists, tech entrepreneurs, Grinberg body-work practitioners, and a world-renowned mandolin player. In recent years, these expats have founded myriad projects—Hebrew-language kindergartens, a Hebrew library, a Hebrew literary magazine, a Hanukkah market, Iranian-Israeli techno parties, and a Tel Aviv-style beach on the Spree, to name just a few.


All this has been accomplished under intense media scrutiny: Israelis in Berlin have been written about so extensively in both the German and the Israeli press that subjects complain of media-cliché fatigue. I was warned that if I didn’t want to induce eye-rolling during interviews I should refrain from mentioning Yair Lapid. (Last fall, the Israeli finance minister famously inveighed against young Israelis who were “willing to throw away the only country the Jews have just because it’s more comfortable to live in Berlin.”) Likewise, I should include the often profiled hummus restaurant in Prenzlauer Berg only if absolutely necessary. “Please, don’t write another gay-Israeli-disco piece,” one curator said, with heartfelt ennui.

Given the city’s history, it’s not surprising that journalists have pounced on the “Israelis in Berlin” story—in the German case, with a jubilation that you can practically hear between the lines. Before the Nazis came to power, Berlin’s vital Jewish community comprised a hundred and sixty thousand people. By war’s end, seven to eight thousand survivors remained. During the following decades, some—like a group of Jewish Berliners who had fled to Shanghai—returned, while others left. Growth came only in the nineties, when Germany passed a law welcoming Jews from the former Soviet Union.

Many people point to 2011—and to Israel’s social-justice protests—as the year that the trend of young Israelis moving to Berlin (where, as expats from all over the world will tell you, the quality of life is high and the rents are low) really gained momentum. Certainly, these new Berliners constitute a real change in a city where, according to the German historian Clemens Maier-Wolthausen, only thirty thousand “people of Jewish identity” had been living.

Israelis coming to Berlin bring a desire for a culturally, but not necessarily a religious, Jewish life—something largely lacking here. Seeing an absence, Israelis are jumping in: new cultural events run the gamut from cool Shabbat get-togethers to readings, screenings, and the like. But it is the internal processes of this group of determined individualists that Tal Alon, a journalist, finds most fascinating. Alon, who launched Spitz, the first Hebrew-language magazine in Berlin since the Nazi era, two years ago, said that Israeli expats here are engaged—in a way that other, more conservative Israeli communities are not—in creating a new identity. “There are things they don’t want to give up from an Israeli, Jewish identity,” she said. “But they are also wanting to become more cosmopolitan, open-minded people—citizens of the world.”

With Spitz, whose latest issue included a guide to the Berlin art world (aimed at helping visiting parents), as well as tips for navigating the German preschool system, Alon seeks to examine the complexities that she sees in her daily life in Berlin: the black humor with which Israelis talk about their family histories with one another but not with German friends; the way in which Berlin’s excellent public-transportation system reflects a cultural expectation of stability that would be impossible to imagine in what Alon called the “disaster mentality” of her own country. While she avoids assigning articles that deal explicitly with the Holocaust—“For us, it’s boring already”—Alon said that the topic is nonetheless one of the motivating forces behind the magazine. “I can’t imagine doing Spitz in Madrid or Lisbon,” she said. “Here, I have an emotional connection. This is a place for dealing with the past intensively.”

Other expats find the omnipresence of Berlin’s past more frustrating than inspiring. “Sometimes I feel fed up with the German-Jewish story,” Liraz Axelrad, who moved here two years ago to work for a technology startup, said. “The only reason Americans in Berlin are not as interesting as I am is because of all these dead people. I guess I’m trying to run away from that.” On her blog, Axelrad wrote that the questions she asks herself are the same ones that any self-aware person would explore when living in a new country: “What does it mean to be a stranger? Why is it so hard to learn German?” She finds it annoying when Israelis are praised for learning German, while others are simply expected to; if anything, Axelrad said, it should be easier for Israelis like her to learn German than it is for, say, an Italian exchange student. “We grew up in a country where our grandparents spoke German,” she said.

“I didn’t move to Berlin to relive the war years,” Axelrad, who grew up on a kibbutz founded by her grandparents, who were both from Berlin, added. (The German language was banned on the kibbutz.) “I don’t wake up in the morning thinking someone is trying to catch me. I really enjoy being here. It’s beautiful, it’s comfortable, it’s interesting. It allows me to live my life as close to my ideal as possible.”

“The vibes in this city force you to live a very modest life style,” Rotem Malach, who has been working for the World Zionist Organization in Berlin for just over a year, said. When he first moved here, he found the city’s daily reminders of the Holocaust—for example, subway trains whose end point is Wannsee, where the Final Solution was decided on—very upsetting. Now, while still touched by things like the golden pavement stones dotting the sidewalks that are inscribed with the names of former residents who were killed in the death camps, Malach said that he also appreciates the city’s openness, stability, calm, and less materialistic culture. “People come here and relax. They have time to look more deeply at themselves, to learn more about themselves,” he said.

Most of the Israelis he encounters here will probably return to Israel, Malach said. “They’ll take what they learned about themselves, and about life, back with them—how to be satisfied without working as much, without eating out four times a week in fancy restaurants, without being part of the capitalist rat race.” Michal Friedlander, a curator at the Jewish Museum in Berlin, said that she would be sorry to see the trend reverse. “I hope they stay,” she said. “It brings a breath of fresh air into the Jewish landscape in Berlin.”

FT : Deutsche Bank warns traders in video over boasting, vulgarity

Deutsche Bank warns traders in video over boasting, vulgarity

Deutsche Bank traders: you have been warned. Boasting, vulgar comments and indiscretion are “not OK”.
Colin Fan, the co-head of the German lender’s investment bank, has taken the unusual step of sending out an internal video with a severe warning to traders about their online behaviour.

“Some of you are falling way short of our established standards,” warns Mr Fan in the video below, which was distributed to all employees in the global investment bank’s sales and trading division. “Let’s be clear: our reputation is everything. Being boastful, indiscreet and vulgar is not OK. It will have serious consequences for your career. And, I have lost patience on this issue.”
The warning comes as banks around the world grapple with how to control their traders, as a clutch of investigations, such as the probe into the manipulation of interbank lending rates and possible misconduct in the sprawling foreign exchange market, have revealed an embarrassing electronic trail of commentary.

“You may not realise it, but right now, because of regulatory scrutiny, all your communications may be reviewed,” says the Canadian, widely seen as a potential future chief executive of Europe’s largest investment bank. “This includes your emails, your conversations and your conduct.”
Yet despite embarrassing transcripts of instant messaging conversations published by regulators – with such comments as “Done, for you big boy,” referring to rate-rigging by a Barclays trader – bankers have not learnt their lesson.
Now, banks such as Deutsche are aiming to head off further reputational damage at a still precarious time for the industry.
Banks have been discovering more inappropriate communication in chat rooms, emails and instant messages as part of fresh investigations into whether the global foreign exchange market was also rigged by traders.
At least 11 regulators and prosecutors around the world are examining whether wrongdoing took place, with more than 30 people across nine banks suspended or fired from their roles so far, including at Deutsche Bank. No individual or institution has been charged with any wrongdoing.
A spokesperson at Deutsche Bank confirmed the origination of the video and said: “The substance and tone of this video is intentionally direct and part of an ongoing programme.”
Deutsche executives have been trying to convince investors and the general public that they are achieving “cultural change” in the bank in the wake of the recent rate-rigging scandals.
The lender was fined €725m in December by the European Commission for its role in rate-rigging cartels for yen Libor and Euribor. Deutsche is still being investigated by the German regulator for its role in the global Libor rate-rigging affair. It fired five traders in Frankfurt last year after an internal probe into Libor but was forced to reinstate four of them after a judge ruled they had been unfairly dismissed.
Concluding his remarks on the internal video, Mr Fan ends: “Communications that run even a small risk of being seen as unprofessional stops right now. I need you to exercise good sense and sound judgment. Think carefully about what you say and how you say it.”
“If not, it will have serious consequences for you personally.”

Barron's : Boeing: Looking for a Catalyst

Boeing (BA) is preparing for its May 21 investor meeting–and shareholders should be too. Citigroup’s Jason Gursky and Jonathan Raviv are hopeful that a positive catalyst could emerge for Boeing’s stock. They explain:


Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg News
Although the conference hasn’t driven material stock out/underperformance in the last 2 years, relatively low expectations heading into next week could provide some upside as we expect BA to reiterate its targets supporting our bullish view…

The most important focus item is the deferred production build on the 787 which is targeted to peak at $25b by year-end. We suspect that consensus expects Boeing to miss by a few billion, but at this point we don’t see any reason not to believe BA since they have production experience already under their belt. We’ll also want to gain more clarity on how the 737 & 777 order books are shaping up to bridge to the new models in 2017 & 2020, respectively.

Shares of Boeing have dropped 1.6% to $130.92 at 3:26 p.m. today, while Embraer (ERJ) has fallen 1.3% to $33.68 and Airbus Group (EADSY) has declined 1.9% to $17.47.

(BFW) Montebourg Says There Are Multiple Talks in Telecom Sector...


BFW 05/16 06:36 French PM Valls Says Govt Watching Telecom Sector Closely
 BN 05/16 06:40 *FRENCH INDUSTRY MINISTER MONTEBOURG SPEAKS ON RMC RADIO
 BN 05/16 06:40 *FRANCE'S MONTEBOURG SEES TOO MUCH JOB DESTRUCTION IN TELECOMS
 BN 05/16 06:39 *MONTEBOURG SAYS THERE ARE MULTIPLE TALKS IN TELECOM SECTOR
 BN 05/16 06:20 *FRENCH PM VALLS SAYS GROWTH REMAINS TOO WEAK
 BN 05/16 06:20 *FRENCH PM VALLS SAYS FRANCE NEEDS TO CUT PUBLIC SPENDING
 BN 05/16 06:16 *FRENCH PM VALLS SAYS GOVT NEEDS TO DEFEND STRATEGIC INTERESTS
 BN 05/16 06:15 *FRENCH PM VALLS SPEAKS ON EUROPE 1 RADIO
 BN 05/16 06:15 *FRENCH PM VALLS SAYS GOVT WATCHING TELECOM SECTOR CLOSELY

Montebourg Says There Are Multiple Talks in Telecom Sector
2014-05-16 06:42:55.97 GMT


By Mark Deen
     May 16 (Bloomberg) -- French Industry Minister Arnaud
Montebourg says there are “multiple” sets of negotiations
going on in France’s telecom sector and that he favors a return
to three mobile phone operators.
  * Montebourg says there has been too much job destruction in
    the French telecoms industry.
  * Montebourg speaks on RMC radio.

Link to Company News:{VIV FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{EN FP <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{ORA FP <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the reporter on this story:
Mark Deen in Paris at +33-1-5365-5066 or
markdeen@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Mark Deen at +33-1-5365-5066 or
markdeen@bloomberg.net

NY Post : JCPenney stock spikes 25% on higher sales results

JCPenney stock spikes 25% on higher sales results

Maybe Ron Johnson didn’t kill JCPenney, after all.
The struggling retailer’s shares soared 25 percent in after-hours trades on better-than-expected sales, a key sign that Penney may be recovering at last from former CEO Johnson’s disastrous makeover attempt.
“We’ve turned an important corner,” said CEO Mike Ullman, who retook the reins 13 months ago from Johnson, an ex-Apple exec who had sent shoppers fleeing by abruptly banishing coupons and sales events.
Indeed, Penney in April saw its first increase in customer traffic in 30 months — a signal that Ullman’s strategy to bring back old-school department-store discounting is finally beginning to work.
Sales at stores open at least a year, or same-store sales, rose 6.2 percent during the first quarter, beating the company’s forecast for an increase between 3 percent and 5 percent.
Penney shares, 30 percent of which have been “shorted” by investors who have borrowed them on a bet that they will fall, traded as high as $10.51 in after-hours trades after closing the regular session at $8.37.
Ullman — who along with other top execs has lately been buying Penney shares — signaled that he’s not going anywhere despite the fact that the board hired an executive-search firm last year to replace him.
“We’re fully staffed at the senior level,” Ullman told analysts on a Thursday call. He added that there are “no major changes on the horizon.”
Ullman said he expects Penney to stop losing money this year, citing solid momentum heading into the current quarter. The company reiterated that it anticipates same-store sales gains in the mid-single-digits for the full year.
Nevertheless, the most recent numbers remained sobering: Penney’s net loss was $352 million, or $1.15 per share, compared with a loss of $348 million, or $1.58 per share, a year earlier.
That’s a signal that Penney is still being forced to mark down unsold clothing to entice wary shoppers alienated by Johnson’s tactics.
In addition to restoring coupons, Ullman has brought back a number of private brands that Johnson had banished. Those include St. John’s Bay, a $1 billion brand that Johnson said was dowdy and out of date.
Some critics are skeptical about whether bringing back old brands can make Penney anything better than mediocre. Still, a recent jump in sales eases fears that Penney could face another liquidity crisis later this year.
Total sales rose to $2.8 billion, from $2.64 billion, beating Wall Street’s forecast of $2.71 billion.
Gross margins continued to improve, to 33.1 percent of sales, from 30.8 percent in the same quarter of 2013.
The company said it had increased its credit facility to $2.35 billion, from $1.85 billion, and extended its maturity to enhance its liquidity position.