(La Tribune) There may be competition to three mobile operators" (Montebourg)

There may be competition to three mobile operators" (Montebourg) Link to French Article {http://bit.ly/1m9oTkJ}

The Minister of Economy, Productive Recovery and Digital hammered his desire to see the market consolidate but downplaying the risk of rising prices due to the presence of Free, disruptive.

Arnaud Montebourg persists and signs ... but rounded corners. Interviewed Tuesday by the Economic Affairs Committee of the Senate, the Minister of Economy, Productive Recovery and Digital hammered the need, he said, returning to the three mobile operators. However, he tried to reassure the consequences for customers, in response to concerns expressed for example by UFC Que Choisir and relativize the will of government interference.

"Promote the consolidation and return to three operators does not mean agreement. I would say consumer associations there may be competition to three operators. The presence of Free, which is disruptive of the sector will maintain pressure on prices "argued Arnaud Montebourg.

The minister, however, joked late January and claimed the same over the role of "organizing agreements" as are necessary for his eyes. However, he acknowledged that an agreement had been convicted "rightly" in the area between the three operators in the 2000s and that we should not "condemn a particular operator."

Not intrusive in the decisions of operators
The minister, who had stepped into the breach for the supply of Bouygues for redemption SFR against the Numericable, held by Vivendi, has defended the practice of interference in the affairs of telecom operators. "We are not intrusive in their strategic decisions," he said. However, he believes that "we have not absorbed the seismic effects of the arrival of the new operator, Free Mobile e" and that the situation is "not sustainable and even dangerous" when operators are engaged in "a competition unleashed by the price. "Now," the combination of SFR and Numericable does not solve the problem, which remains before us. "

"I publicly encourages operators to seek reconciliation as well combinations they wish to implement. "

The Minister had already stated publicly in mid-May that " Mr. Bouygues is perfectly able to imagine solutions with other SFR. I prompted, he knows, I told him . "The fact that Orange is studying a possible merger with Bouygues Telecom , a large and complex operation, was also seen as dictated by the state shareholder of the incumbent approach.

(Les Echos) Total, GDF Suez and Orange will enter Euronext capital

Total, GDF Suez and Orange will enter Euronext capital - Link to rench Article :{http://bit.ly/1rKfR6d}

Heavyweight CAC 40 should take an interest in the stock market operator before its IPO.
Several CAC 40 could participate in the introduction of Euronext Stock Exchange. According to our sources, Total, GDF Suez and Orange are committed to participate in the round of the operator of the Paris market, which is expected to reach the coast at the end of the month.
The oil group, the telecom and energy company could take a stake of around 1% each. Others might follow in the future. They could thus be seen as "strategic investors" in the prospectus of the operation. For Euronext capitalization of around 1.5 billion euros (analysts suggest a range of 1.3 to 2 billion euros), so this would be a entrance fee of about 15 million euros.
By investing in this IPO issuers seeking to join the dynamic space. A symbol for a group that wants to position itself as a "center of raising capital for the financing of the real economy."
Pan-European activity
The shareholding of the tenors rating follows the announcement, there a few days, the establishment of a core group of banks and financial institutions who together hold 33% stake. This round table is representative of the pan-European business of Euronext, operating places in Amsterdam, Brussels, Lisbon and Paris: it includes BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Caisse des Dépôts et bpifrance but Avistar SGPS (Banco Espírito group Santo), ABN AMRO, Fortis (BNP), the Belgian Euroclear or the holding Belgian Public Federal Holding and Investment.
They pledged to keep their shares for three years after the entry into Euronext Stock Exchange. It is "a strong signal to the market" and "a great sign of confidence that we are delighted," said then Dominique Cerutti, CEO of Euronext, noting that this ad was beyond the control of IntercontinentalExchange (ICE).
This hard core shareholders was highly anticipated after months of negotiations involving Bercy, discussions polluted by the European project tax on financial transactions. Almost to the end, many observers feared that this round fails to conclude, while large institutions such as AXA or Crédit Agricole had publicly declared their intention not to participate.
Certainly, critical minds will notice that many of the banks are the core recommendations of the operation and some of the major groups have their state capital, but these ads are encouraging few weeks of introduction.
With these key investors, Euronext will now have to convince a wider range of investors. The operation is closely monitored while it marks the return of independence for the Paris Bourse. Euronext fell into the hands of the NYSE in 2007, before being bought by IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) last year.

NYT : In BNP Case and Beyond, Regulators Search for Penalties to Fit the Crimes

Link to article : {http://nyti.ms/1oUCMJY}

In BNP Case and Beyond, Regulators Search for Penalties to Fit the Crimes

United States bank regulators are descending deep into the plumbing of the financial system as they seek the most fitting punishment for the giant French bank now in the cross hairs of the law enforcement authorities.

BNP Paribas is expected to plead guilty in the coming weeks to charges that it processed payments for companies and countries that were subject to United States sanctions. A criminal conviction would leave a stain on the bank’s reputation. BNP Paribas is also expected to pay financial penalties of about $8 billion, which would leave a sizable, though manageable, dent on its balance sheet. And a settlement is likely to require that the bank fire some senior executives.

Despite those potential punishments, some regulators want to do more — and that is why they have turned their attention to the depths of the banking system. They are considering restrictions on the BNP Paribas operations that funnel billions ofs through the vast network of pipes that connect the world’s largest banks.

Specifically, Benjamin M. Lawsky, New York State’s top financial regulator, is considering whether to temporarily suspend BNP Paribas’s ability to process dollar payments, according to people briefed on the settlement talks. This activity, often known as dollar clearing, may not in itself generate large profits, but it plays a crucial role in moving money between the bank and its clients in its core businesses, like lending and trading.

The fact that regulators are considering restrictions on such an important banking activity has added a significant twist to the debate over how to punish large banks.

Some legal specialists said that crimping dollar clearing could lead to unpredictable consequences. “It is a new form of punishment,” Oliver I. Ireland, a partner at Morrison & Foerster, said. “It seems to me to be a very uncertain tool to achieve an end.”

But consumer advocates said that banks and their representatives often overstated the potential effect of punishments. As a result, they said, law enforcement authorities should treat dark predictions about a dollar-clearing ban on BNP Paribas with skepticism. “This strikes me as less than a modest sanction,” said Dennis Kelleher, president of Better Markets, a group that has lobbied for tougher regulation of big banks.

BNP Paribas declined to comment on its dollar-clearing operations.

The United States authorities have enormous sway over dollar clearing because such transactions ultimately clear in the United States, even when they are initiated overseas. The United States government itself plays a hugely important role in processing payments through the Federal Reserve’s Fedwire Funds Service system. The question for regulators, however, is whether they can isolate a certain type of clearing, allowing them to focus the desired level of punishment on a certain business.

Bankers who work in the clearing business said that, in theory, a focused approach was possible. In particular, a bank can break out dollar clearing by business line or type of customer if it is part of the widely used Swift payments system. BNP Paribas appears to be part of Swift. As a result, regulators could require BNP Paribas to temporarily halt dollar clearing, for instance, within the division that made the payments that regulators say evaded sanctions.


There are, however, outcomes in which a dollar-clearing suspension may not hurt BNP Paribas much at all. The regulators may, for instance, prevent the bank from conducting clearing operations itself but allow BNP Paribas to contract its clearing to other banks for a certain period. Under that situation, the bank would most likely not experience significant disruption in core businesses like trading and lending. BNP Paribas’s customers would still be able to send the bank money, and it could still send dollars out.

Clearing specialists said, however, that an important activity known as correspondent banking would most likely be hurt even if BNP Paribas were allowed to use other banks to do its clearing. In correspondent banking, banks perform basic activities, including dollar clearing, for other financial institutions. Correspondent banking clients that use BNP Paribas for dollar clearing would have to transfer that function to other banks and could decide not to return.

“It comes down to a matter of attrition — how many customers the bank loses during the period of suspension,” said Cornelius K. Hurley, a professor at the Boston University School of Law. BNP Paribas has a substantial payments business, but its most recent annual report did not break out the contribution from correspondent banking.

Still, some banking experts remain unsettled by the idea of a dollar-clearing ban, even if regulators can carefully focus such an action. “The American authorities cannot speak to how the corporate and financial institutional clients of BNP Paribas will react,” said Jacob Frenkel, a lawyer at Shulman Rogers.

Consumer advocates are also not placing too many hopes on a dollar-clearing ban being the sort of get-tough measure that gives regulators the edge against large banks.

“Enforcing a United States foreign policy objective against a foreign bank is so far afield from Wall Street bank fraud harming U.S. citizens,” Jeff Connaughton, who was chief of staff for Ted Kaufman, the former Democratic senator from Delaware, said in an email. “This experimentation with criminal plea consequences just seems contrived compared to the damage caused by the legacy of dramatic law enforcement failures against U.S. banks,” he said.

Still, regulators have signaled that they simply have to consider measures like dollar-clearing bans if they want to exact punishments that fit the crime — and help to deter future wrongdoing. “We try and act in a tough but fair manner when it comes to enforcement. But I doubt we get it right in every case,” Mr. Lawsky said in a speech in March, when he alluded to a dollar-clearing suspension. “That said, we are committed to trying to find the right balance that creates real deterrents.”

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Australia GDP surprises to the upside; Dai-ichi Life announces $5.7B purchase of Protective Life

***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% (2-year high) V 0.9%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.2%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY AIG PERFORMANCE OF SERVICES INDEX: 49.9 V 48.6 PRIOR (3rd month contraction, 3-month high) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAY ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: -2.2% V -3.7% PRIOR (3rd consecutive decline) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 VALUE OF ALL BUILDINGS Q/Q: 16.0% V 5.5%E - (JP) JAPAN MAY MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 49.3 (2nd straight month of contraction) V 46.4 PRIOR; MARKIT/JMMA COMPOSITE PMI: 49.2 (2nd straight month of contraction) V 46.3 PRIOR - (UK) UK MAY BRC SHOP PRICE INDEX Y/Y: -1.4% V -1.3%E (13th month of decline)

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX -0.5%, Kospi +0.3%, Shanghai Composite -1.0%, Hang Seng -0.6%, Jun S&P500 -0.1% at 1,920, Aug gold +0.1% at $1,245, Jul crude oil +0.1% at $102.73/brl

***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Higher than expected Q1 GDP out of Australia seemingly justified a less-dovish than expected RBA policy statement overnight. 1.1% sequential jump was a 2-year high, sending AUD/USD up over 30pips above $0.9290. Among GDP components, Capital Formation (0.0% v -1.2% prior) had a notable positive contribution, while terms of trade slumped even though exports contributed +1.4%. Commentary regarding the mining space was also a positive surprise - Australian Bureau of Statistics said the mining industry accounted for around 80% of growth in GDP in the March quarter, with a "stronger than usual growth in the period reflected in a high seasonally adjusted figure of 8.6%. - In other economic data from Australia, AiG Services index remained in contraction but hit a 3-month high. AIG economist noted "employment sub-index declined further in May, to 45.8 points, indicating a worsening decline in employment in the services sectors, as employers remain cautious about the near-term outlook."

- NZD/USD remains under pressure in the Asia session, hitting a fresh 3-month low below $0.8420. The initial catalyst for Kiwi weakness was another disappointing Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction earlier in the US session as prices fell -4.2% - its 8th consecutive decline and also the biggest decline in 4 auctions. BNZ economist said the big decline in dairy prices since Feb "virtually guarantees a fall in the terms of trade measure" in Q2.

- Japan's Dai-ichi Life reached a deal to acquire US-based Protective Life in a $5.7B merger, creating a new top-20 global life insurance entity. The announcement comes in the wake of the press speculation of a deal over the weekend which PL had actually denied. Under agreed terms, Dai-ichi Life will acquire all outstanding shares of PL for $70/shr, which represents a 34% premium over Protective's unaffected closing stock price of $52.30 on May 30 and over 10% from closing levels on Tuesday. Transaction, which has been approved by both companies' boards of directors, is expected to close by the end of 2014 or early 2015, subject to regulatory approvals in Japan and the US.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China State Researcher: Sees fall in marginal contribution to economic growth from China's urbanization - Chinese press - (CN) US Commerce Dept imposes duties on China solar imports following finding that China has subsidized certain solar products - press - (CN) China Commerce Ministry: China dissatisfied with US ruling over China solar products; US action to worsen solar trade dispute - press - (CN) China Pres Xi Jinping: To put in efforts to solve smog and air pollution problem; encourages innovation in engineering to achieve sustainable development - Xinhua - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Transition away from mining is underway; non-mining sectors starting to lift - financial press - (US) Fed's Fisher (FOMC voter, hawk): Odds are slim of interest rate hike this year - press

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥300B in 1-3 yr JGB, ¥200B in 3-5yr JGB and ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$700M in 4.5% 2033 Bonds; avg yield: 4.3157%; bid-to-cover: 3.53x - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -1.4M v 0e, GASOLINE: +0.8M v +0.5Me, DISTILLATE: -0.3M v +1Me - (AU) Port Hedland May Iron Ore Exports: 36M tons (record) v 34.8M tons prior - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 1.8 tonnes to 787.1 tonnes (highest level since Apr 30th) - (NZ) Fonterra Global Dairy Trade auction: Dairy Trade price index: -4.2% from prior auction (8th consecutive decline, biggest decline in 4 auctions) - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1693 v 6.1710 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since May 27th)

***Equities*** US markets: - NSTG: Enters into Biomarker Companion Diagnostic Collaboration with Celgene Corporation; to receive $45M in upfront and other payments; +15.4% afterhours - MFRM: Reports Q1 $0.31 v $0.36e, R$333.5M v $335Me; Raises FY14 revenue guidance; +1.1% afterhours - PL: To be acquired by Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance; +7.7% afterhours - TIBX: Reports prelim Q2 $0.12-0.13 v $0.21e, R$250-252M v $268Me ($0.20-0.22, R$263-271M prior guidance); -12.2% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Noni B Ltd NBL.AU +33.3% (approached for acquisition) - Financials: Australand ALZ.AU +5.9% (receives cash offer); China Vanke 000002.CN -1.9% (May sales results); Dai-Ichi Mutual Life Insurance 8750.JP +0.4% (to acquire Protective Life) - Industrials: Avic Heavy Machinery 600765.CN -4.4% (exec investigated); Fujian Longking 600388.CN +5.3%, Beijing SPC Environmental Protection 002573.CN +2.9% (Pres Xi encourages smog treatment); Mazda Motor 7261.JP +2.0% (May US, China sales results); Fuji Heavy Industries 7270.JP +1.1% (Subaru May US sales results)

>>> AT&T discloses further clarifications and key facts to the proposed acquisition of DIRECTV

AT&T discloses further clarifications and key facts to the proposed acquisition of DIRECTV (DTV); expects cost synergies to exceed $1.6 bln (35.20 -0.24) Co provides updated information regarding further clarifications and key facts to the proposed acquisition of DIRECTV: • AT&T expects cost synergies to exceed $1.6 billion annual run-rate by three years after closing. These savings will begin in the first year after closing, ramp up over four years and grow with the addition of video subscribers thereafter. It is anticipated that at least 40% of these total synergies will be realized by year two after closing. • This transaction is a clear combination of complementary assets and capabilities that creates a strong consumer bundle which will also drive improvements in customer retention. • The Company expects significant revenue-related synergies that are not currently factored in the $1.6 billion cost synergies. These revenue opportunities are in the areas of bundling, video content to multiple screens, cross selling and advertising. • Also, AT&T will be able to use its 2,000 plus company owned stores and the approximate 10,000 retail locations of the combined companies' authorized agents to sell these new bundled services. Currently, about 50% of AT&T retail stores do not sell a pay TV product. • Given our limited competitive overlap, and the significant consumer benefits, we are confident that the regulators will approve this combination.

>>> US Close Dow-0,13% S&P-0,04% Nasdaq-0,07%


Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Ends Flat While Small-Caps Underperform Again

The stock market finished the Tuesday session on a modestly lower note, but small-cap stocks underperformed once again. The Russell 2000 slipped 0.2%, while the S&P 500 snapped its three-day win streak, shedding less than a point.

Equity indices faced an uphill climb from the opening bell, but the S&P 500 was able to cut the bulk of its losses during the initial 45 minutes of action; however, the early rebound attempt was stonewalled by the underperformance of small-caps. With high-beta names unable to gain any significant traction, the benchmark index returned to its earlier low. The S&P 500 then staged another recovery, which placed it right below its flat line by the close.

To be sure, the (nearly) flat finish reflected a lack of concerted sector leadership during the trading day. On the cyclical side, energy (+0.3%) and financials (+0.1%) posted modest gains, while the remaining four sectors lost between 0.1% and 0.3%.

Interestingly, the industrial sector (-0.2%) settled just behind the broader market, masking the relative weakness among transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.8%, but that was likely a function of some profit taking after the bellwether complex surged 3.1% over the past two weeks. Airlines were able to withstand the selling pressure as four of five carriers posted gains with JetBlue Airways (JBLU 10.05, +0.23) leading the way. The stock advanced 2.3%.

Elsewhere, the four countercyclical groups finished mixed with health care (+0.2%) and utilities (+0.3%) posting slim gains, while consumer staples (-0.3%) and telecom services (-1.0%) ended in the red.

The somewhat sloppy session lured some investors into demanding portfolio insurance, which sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 11.79, +0.21) higher by 1.8%. Despite the uptick, the near-term volatility measure ended the day not far above its 2014 low (11.29%), which was notched yesterday.

Even though volatility protection was in demand, the safety of the Treasury market was not. On that note, the 10-yr note spent the session in a steady retreat, falling 19 ticks, which sent its yield higher by seven basis points to 2.60%.

Today's participation marked an improvement from recent days, but remained below average as 644 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to April factory orders, which increased 0.7% following an upwardly revised 1.5% (from 1.1%) increase in March. The consensus expected an increase of 0.5%.

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET, while the ADP Employment Change for May (consensus 200,000) will cross the wires at 8:15 ET. The April Trade Balance (consensus -$41.30 billion) and Q1 Productivity (consensus -2.5%) and Unit Labor Costs (consensus 4.8%) will be reported at 8:30 ET, while the May ISM Services Index (consensus 55.5) will be released at 10:00 ET. The day's data will be topped off with the 14:00 ET release of the Fed's Beige Book for June.
  • S&P 500 +4.1% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.9% YTD 
  • Nasdaq Composite +1.4% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 -3.1% YTD

>>> Mattress Firm misses by $0.04, misses on revs; reaffirms FY15 EPS & comp gui

Mattress Firm misses by $0.04, misses on revs; reaffirms FY15 EPS & comp guidance, raises FY15 rev guidance; Q1 comps +4.3%  

* Reports Q1 (Apr) earnings of $0.31 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.35; revenues rose 20.8% year/year to $333.5 mln vs the $337.58 mln consensus.
* Co issues guidance for FY15, reaffirms EPS of $1.88-2.00, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $1.95 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; raises FY15 revs to $1.50-1.56 bln from $1.46-1.52 bln vs. $1.5 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate. * Co reaffirms FY15 low single digit comp growth guidance.
* Co reported comparable-Store Sales Growth of 4.3% in first fiscal quarter.
Opened 56 new stores, closed eight, and acquired 92 bringing the total number of Company-operated stores to 1,365 as of the end of the fiscal quarter.
* Adjusted operating income margin was 6.0% of net sales as compared to 8.6% in the first fiscal quarter of 2013, and included a 170 basis-point decline in gross profit margin, a 130 basis-point decrease from general and administration

WSJ : Fed Officials Growing Wary of Market Complacency (Hilsenrath)

Fed Officials Growing Wary of Market Complacency

Expectations for Rate Hikes Might Be Out of Line With Fed's

Federal Reserve officials, looking out at mostly calm financial markets, are starting to wonder whether tranquility itself is something to worry about.

So far this year the U.S. economy has suffered a brief economic contraction, the Fed has begun winding down a major bond-purchase program meant to spur growth, the Obama administration has clashed with Russia over its annexation of Crimea, China's economy has slowed and the Middle East has become a cauldron of civil strife.

Yet, looking at Wall Street stock and bond trader screens, the world looks like a model of stability. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, up a steady if unspectacular 1% since the beginning of the year, has consolidated big gains registered last year. Yields on 10-year Treasury notes have fallen even though inflation—which typically sends bond yields up—has been inching higher from very low levels.

Other measures of risk aversion and market volatility show an especially striking sense of investor calm. The VIX, which tracks expected stock-market fluctuations based on options trading, has gone 74 straight weeks below its long-run average—a run of steadiness not seen since 2006 and 2007.

Moreover, the extra return that bond investors demand on investment-grade corporate debt over low-risk Treasury bonds, at one percentage point, hasn't been this low since July 2007. The lower this "spread," the less risk-averse are bond investors.

The worry at the Fed is that when investors become unafraid of risk, they start taking more of it, which could lead to trouble down the road. One example of increased risk taking: Issuance of low-rated U.S. dollar-denominated junk bonds last year hit a record $366 billion, more than twice the level reached in the years before the 2008 financial crisis, according to financial-data provider Dealogic.

"This indicates a great deal of complacency," Richard Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in an interview. "When you get complacency you're bound to be surprised at some point."

The Fed has given root to the sense of calm by offering investors assurances that interest rates will stay low far into the future. Its policy statement says officials expect to keep short-term rates near zero for a "considerable time" after the bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing, ends later this year.

The policy statement says rates aren't expected to go up much even after the Fed starts raising them. The policies are in place to invigorate a soft U.S. economy, and officials show no sign of veering from the plan.

Yet some measures suggest the market has taken the Fed's assurances further than the central bank itself.

Fed funds futures contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange indicate investors expect the Fed's benchmark federal funds rate to average 0.6% in December 2015, up from near zero now. That's notably below the 1% rate that is the median of projections released by Fed officials after their March meeting. Futures markets indicate investors expect a 1.6% fed funds rate in December 2016, below the Fed's own median projection of 2.25%.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen gently pushed back on the market's sense of certitude in a mid-April speech at the Economic Club of New York in which she emphasized the unknown. "It is important to note that tying the response of policy to the economy necessarily makes the future course of the federal funds rate uncertain," she said.

But risk premiums on bonds haven't budged since. New York Fed President William Dudley warned in a question-and-answer session after a speech last month that he was nervous that unusually low volatility in markets was breeding too much risk-taking.

The market's calm was a subject of some discussion at the Fed's April policy meeting, according to minutes of the meeting released last month. It could come up again when officials meet in mid-June.

However, many officials appear more inclined to talk about market risks than act to pre-empt them given the worry about cutting off a fragile recovery with early rate hikes. Though risk-taking is on an upswing, they don't see a buildup of serious threats to the broader stability of the financial system. They are expected at the June meeting to keep gradually scaling back their purchases of mortgage and Treasury debt and stick to the plan to keep short-term interest rates near zero.

Fed officials face a double-edged sword. Officials want to keep interest rates low to boost economic growth and hiring and to lift inflation from levels below its 2% target. But, having been burned by the 2008 financial crisis, they are on the lookout for signs that the policies are having dangerous side-effects in financial markets.

"It is a problem of their own making. They can't have it both ways," said Martin Barnes, chief economist at BCA Research, an investment-advisory firm. "If they want to sustain zero interest rates and push up asset prices, how can they expect to have that with no excesses and no risk taking?"

Last year showed Fed officials the potential trade-offs they face. Volatility and risk premiums were similarly low early in the year, making some officials become uncomfortable that investors expected the Fed's bond purchases to go on longer than the Fed planned. Then, when officials in May started openly discussing ending the program, investors were caught off guard and rates rose quickly, knocking the housing recovery off course.

"I cannot tell you for sure when this does get unwound," Mohamed El-Erian, former chief executive of the bond fund Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco, said in an interview of the recent period of market calm. "When it does we are going to be reminded of what happened last May and June."

Kansas City Fed President Esther George —like Mr. Fisher a skeptic of the benefits of the central bank's easy-money policies—wants the Fed to raise short-term interest rates more aggressively than planned to head off financial risks. She remains in a minority and doesn't have a policy vote this year.

"My concern is that keeping rates very low into late 2016 will continue to incentivize financial markets and investors to reach for yield in an economy operating at full capacity, posing risks to achieving sustainable growth over the longer run," she said Tuesday in a speech in Breckenridge, Colo.

FT : AstraZeneca seeks to bring new cancer drugs to market

AstraZeneca seeks to bring new cancer drugs to market

AstraZeneca claims to have demonstrated the potential “to transform the way cancer is treated” as it steps up efforts to convince investors it was right to spurn a near-£70bn takeover approach from Pfizer.
Pascal Soriot, chief executive, said the company was moving “as fast as possible” to bring new cancer drugs to market after revealing positive trial data that he hopes will bolster the case for independence.
AstraZeneca said an experimental treatment called Medi4736 “showed durable clinical activity and tolerability across a range of tumour types” in early-stage trials, supporting its decision last month to accelerate it into a pivotal phase III study.

The drug is part of a wave of treatments that harness the body’s immune system to hunt and destroy cancer cells, with scientists and analysts hailing them as the biggest step forward in oncology for years.
AstraZeneca put Medi4736 at the heart of its defence against Pfizer’s aborted approach, forecasting that the drug could generate peak annual sales of up to $6.5bn.
Some analysts have bought into the UK company’s optimism, including Andrew Baum at Citigroup, who said in a report this week that AstraZeneca could emerge as the main long-term challenger to Roche of Switzerland in cancer immunotherapy.
Others are more cautious, warning that AstraZeneca faces a battle to catch up with US rivals Merck & Co and Bristol-Myers Squibb, as well as Roche, in what looks certain to be a fiercely competitive field.
“AstraZeneca will be a late entrant into the category and it is unclear how the company will compete effectively if there is no differentiation with its approach,” said Tim Anderson, analyst at Bernstein.
Mr Soriot has highlighted the greater breadth of AstraZeneca’s oncology portfolio compared with Merck and Bristol-Myers Squibb as an important advantage, allowing it to combine medicines into potentially more potent therapies.
Jeffrey Holford, analyst at Jefferies, said there was not yet enough data to judge the effectiveness and safety of Medi4736 against rival products, but said there was a potential opening for AstraZeneca after “underwhelming” trial results for Bristol-Myers Squibb’s nivolumab.
Shares in AstraZeneca closed down 0.49 per cent at £43.49 on Tuesday, reflecting the fact that the company’s optimism over Medi4736 has been well trailed.
The stock has fallen back since Pfizer withdrew its £55 per share offer last month and Mr Soriot is now under pressure to accelerate delivery of new drugs to stem a decline in revenues as old blockbusters lose patent protection.
In addition to Medi4736, AstraZeneca also announced strong early-stage trial results for its AZD9291 treatment for non-small cell lung cancer and said it planned to file for regulatory approval as early as the first quarter of next year.
The data were presented to a meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncology in Chicago – the most important annual gathering of cancer scientists and drug companies.
Naresh Chouhan, analyst at Liberum, said all four companies competing for leadership in cancer immunotherapy – Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, Roche and AstraZeneca – had proved that their drugs work. Focus would now shift to which had the greatest safety and tolerability, he said.

FT : Paris trade talks threat over US BNP fine

Paris trade talks threat over US BNP fine

France on Tuesday warned of potential consequences for transatlantic trade talks if the US pushed ahead with a $10bn-plus fine for BNP Paribas , the country’s biggest bank.
“This poses a very, very big problem,” declared Laurent Fabius, foreign minister, in the first public comments by President François Hollande’s Socialist government since it emerged that US regulators were poised to hit BNP for breaking US sanctions on Iran, Sudan and Cuba.

“We are in talks with the US for a transatlantic partnership,” Mr Fabius said in a television interview. “This trade partnership can only be established on a basis of reciprocity ... One cannot imagine that reciprocity can be the rule if at the same time there is a decision of this type.” Such a “unilateral” punishment would be “completely unreasonable”, he added.
France is among those pressing for financial services to be included in the trade talks, which would amount to biggest regional trade agreement ever struck. Officials in Brussels and Washington sought to play down the threat to the talks, though analysts said Mr Fabius’s comments were significant.
“His opinions matter. … We need the French to be on board for this to happen,” said Garrett Workman, who tracks the EU-US talks for the Washington-based Atlantic Council.
French officials are worried that a big fine and potential suspension of dollar trading would damage BNP’s capital base, curb its ability to lend to the struggling French economy and lose it international customers.
They have also sought to portray the case as a potential threat to the wider European economy. “If this spreads to other European banks it could have a cost for Europe,” said one official.
The government has stressed it does not dispute the right of the US authorities to punish BNP. “If there is an error or a violation, then it’s normal that there is a fine, but the fine has to be proportionate and reasonable,” Mr Fabius said.
But his outburst indicated Paris is concerned its message is not getting across.
The French pleas have so far fallen on deaf ears at the US Treasury Department, with Treasury secretary Jack Lew and other officials telling their French counterparts that it is up to prosecutors to decide the BNP fine, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter.
The tepid response is partly due to criticism of previous action. Many US lawmakers slammed the Treasury department and other authorities for not imposing tougher penalties on banks accused of wrongdoing, including HSBC, which faced a $1.9bn fine in 2012 for money-laundering allegations.
France has been lobbying hard behind the scenes, including via contact between Michel Sapin, the finance minister, and Mr Lew. Last week Christian Noyer, head of the Bank of France, flew to New york to meet Cyrus Vance, the Manhattan district attorney.
Mr Hollande is expected to raise the issue with Barack Obama when the US president visits Paris on Thursday.
The government is under domestic pressure on the issue, following a public outcry over the weekend at the scale of the potential fine after unconfirmed reports on Friday that it could be more than $10bn. Among those attacking the government for not defending BNP was Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Front, which won last month’s European parliamentary elections.
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Are banks being fined enough?

May 21, 2014: Credit Suisse and BNP Paribas are facing multibillion-dollar conduct fines. Lex’s Robert Armstrong and Oliver Ralph discuss whether the fines are big enough to stop misbehaviour by banks
Apart from a big fine, a suspension of dollar clearing would be “dangerous because BNP could lose a lot of clients” and it could have a “huge impact on the bank”, said one French official.
Mr Noyer was accompanied to New York by the new French banking regulator Edouard Fernandez-Bollo, who has been the head of the prudential and control body ACPR since the beginning of this year.
The investigation by US authorities focuses on whether BNP violated US sanctions and anti-money-laundering rules between 2002 and 2009 by disguising transactions in US dollars with countries including Iran, Sudan and Cuba.
A fine as high as $10bn would represent one of the largest penalties ever sought by the US Department of Justice against a bank in a criminal case, and could see the bank lose its right to clear dollar transactions for a time.
A $10bn fine would be likely to leave BNP with a core tier one capital ratio still above the 9 per cent required by regulators under Basel III rules, but below the 10 per cent mark that has recently been demanded by investors.
The bank is likely to consider paying its dividend in scrip form or raising extra capital, according to analysts. A significant concern is the long-term impact on the business if BNP was banned from dollar clearing, even for a short time.