Asian Market Update: Australia unemployment higher as participation rate rises; China trade surplus narrows, missing consensus estimate
***Notable Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA JUN TRADE BALANCE: $31.6B V $37.0BE; Exports Y/Y: +7.2% v +10.4%e; Imports Y/Y: +5.5% v +6.0%e - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUN EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 15.9K V 12.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.0% (4-month high) V 5.9%E - (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED); 14TH STRAIGHT PAUSE - (JP) JAPAN JUN PPI (CGPI) M/M: 0.2% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 4.6% (5-year high) V 4.5%E - (JP) JAPAN MAY MACHINE ORDERS M/M: -19.5% (multi-year low) V +0.7%E; Y/Y: -14.3% V +10.1%E; Govt CUTS assessment on Machine Orders - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JUN BUSINESS MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.3 (first rise in 3 months) V 52.7 PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.1%, Kospi +0.1%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.3%, Sept S&P500 -0.1% at 1,965
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Aug gold +0.5% at $1,330/oz, Aug crude oil -0.5% at $101.82/brl, Sept Copper +0.1% at $3.25/lb - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥646B in 1.7% (1.7% prior) 30-yr notes; Avg yield: 1.703% v 1.714% prior; Bid to cover: 3.12x v 3.00x prior - (JP) Japan GPIF investment committee head Yonezawa: will seek to limit impact of domestic bond prices when reducing holdings - financial press - (JP) Japan investors sold net ¥287.1B (2nd week of net sales) in foreign bonds vs sold net ¥1.05T prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥330.9B in Japan Stocks last week vs sold net ¥32.5B in prior week - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY10B in 28-day repos (4th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY50B this week v injected CNY55B prior (9th consecutive week of net injection) - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1443 v 6.1565 prior setting (strongest Yuan setting since Mar 26th)
- AUD/USD was the most volatile pair among the dollar majors, briefly rising above $0.9450 after Australia employment data and then falling below $0.94 after the China trade figures. USD/JPY briefly fell below 101.50, down nearly 20pips from opening highs.
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - China June trade surplus was up 16% y/y but still came in shy of consensus at $31.6B. Exports were up over 7% which was below the 10% estimate, while exports to US, EU, and Japan were all up in the single digits. H1 shipments of crude oil, iron ore, and Copper were up 10%, 19%, and 26% respectively. Customs office spokesperson Zhang attributed this month's surplus to fiscal policy measures, and also forecasted Q3 exports growth to top Q2 levels. Note that China Q2 GDP data will be released next week.
- Australia jobs data is mixed, with employment change of +15.9K topping consensus but jobless rate rising to a 4-month high of 6.0% due in part to rising participation rate. A closer look at the numbers also reveals a fall of 3.9K in full-time component along with a rise of 19.7K in part-time work, leading to lower increase in overall hours of worked of 15.1M v 33.5M in May. Subsequent comments from ANZ economist target unemployment rate to remain around 6% over the next year, with employment growth to pick up to just shy of 15K per month.
- Bank of Korea held rates unchanged for 14th consecutive month but this time one central bank member voted in favor of a policy easing. BOK also lowered its 2014 and 2015 targets for GDP to 3.8% and 4.0% from 4.0% and 4.2% prior. Inflation rate projections were reduced to 1.9% and 2.7% from 2.1% and 2.8% respectively. Separately, Korean press reported the govt may also cut its GDP projections to mid-3% level from 3.9% amid longer than anticipated impact of the ferry disaster and strong KRW.
- St Louis Fed President Bullard (not a FOMC voter) was surprisingly more hawkish given some of his recent measured tone. Bullard said the US unemployment could fall below 6% in the next 2 reports, leading to higher inflation and a more expedient tightening response from the FOMC than investors expect.
***Equities*** US markets: - ZUMZ: Reports June SSS +3.1% v 1.5%e; raises Q2 outlook; +10.0% afterhours - UAL: Reports June load factor 87.1% v 87.7% y/y; Q2 PRASM +3.5% y/y; +4.9% afterhours - BAC: Said to have requested $0.05 quarterly dividend again; request follows capital miscalculation forcing it to suspend plans in Apr - financial press; -0.1% afterhours - TSCO: Reports Q2 SSS +1.9%; guides FY14 to low end of range; -5.6% afterhours - PBPB: Guides Q2 $0.06 v $0.12e, R$83.6M v $87Me, SSS -1.6% (ex-Easter holiday shift -0.9%); -17.0% afterhours - LL: Guides Q2 $0.59-0.61 v $0.92e; R$263M v $306Me; -18.7% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Chow Tai Fook 1929.HK -3.9% (Q2 SSS results) - Financials: China Vanke 000002.CN +1.6%, Poly Real Estate 600048.CN +1.0% (China City of Xiamen, Jinan said to have eased home purchasing curbs) - Materials: Syrah Resources SYR.AU +18.7% (Glencore to take closer look); Energy Resources of Australia ERA.AU -3.7% (Jun quarter operation review) - Energy: Titan Energy Services TTN.AU +4.2% (prelim FY14 results) - Industrials: Shenzhen Auto Electric Power Plant 002227.CN +1.5%, Sieyuan Electric 002028.CN +3.5%, XJ Electric 000400.CN +2.7%, Beijing Dynamic Power 600405.CN +10.0%; BYD Corp 1211.HK +4.0%, Wanxiang Qianchao 000559.CN +1.0% (China to remove sales tax on new energy vehicles) - Utilities: J-Power 9513.JP -1.5% (thermal facility suspended)
The Muddled Truths About the Stock Market
Are stocks overvalued? Is there a wall of worry? The answers aren't so easy.
As stocks continue to hit new highs instead of correcting, it's become commonplace to read that the market is expensive and perhaps even in a bubble.
Of course, a price-to-earnings ratio of the market should determine the truth or falsehood of that assertion, right? If only markets were so easy to decipher.
As financial blogger and investor Barry Ritholtz points out in a column on the Bloomberg View site, "your take on how expensive or cheap stocks are is a Rorschach test -- it reveals as much about the observer as it does about equity valuations."
Using a chart provided by JPMorgan, Ritholtz points out U.S. equity prices closely match their long-term average price-to-earnings ratio of 15.5. "That's precisely at fair value if you are comparing it to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index earnings-per-share average of analyst estimates for the next 12 months," he writes.
If this ratio were the only device used to measure stocks, it would prove that stocks are reasonably priced, not overvalued and certainly not in bubble territory.
A simple P/E ratio is the most common way to value companies, but there are plenty of other approaches that show stocks either over or undervalued.
For example, an increasingly popular P/E ratio, which looks at earnings over a 10-year cycle rather than a single year, is flashing overvalued market. The so-called CAPE, an invention of Yale professor and Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, is trading at a very rich 25.6 times cyclical earnings. Market bears are championing this number over a simple P/E ratio because it bolsters their argument that stocks are overvalued and due for a correction.
But if only things were this simple. According to Ritholtz, since 1990 the CAPE has only been below its historical average 2% of the time. "If you avoided equities while they were above their historical CAPE measurement, you just missed 24 years of equity gains," he writes.
And don't go looking to the so-called PEG ratio for help. According to JPMorgan numbers, writes Ritholtz, "the P/E-to-growth ratio is below its 10-year average but above its 25-year average. The price-to-book ratio is below its 25-year average but above its one-year average. Price to cash flow at 11 is a little higher than its 25-year average of 10.6."
If you're thoroughly confused about whether stocks are cheap or expensive, you're in good company.
Another topic that resembles a Rorschach diagram, rather than a clear set of facts, is market sentiment. Though a low VIX suggests that investors have grown complacent and fearless, other investors and pundits take solace from the fact that fund flow data suggest that investors still haven't fully bought into the notion that stocks are great.
A recent piece in The Wall Street Journal points out that despite positive returns for stocks, investors have lately been net sellers of mutual funds that hold these shares. In the second quarter through June 25, investors pulled a net $15.1 billion from U.S.-stock mutual funds, according to estimates from the Investment Company Institute trade group.
"That's a reversal from net inflows in the first three months of this year; for the first half of 2014, through June 25, U.S.-stock portfolios took in an estimated net $3.8 billion," the Journal reported.
This is statistical evidence of the so-called wall of worry that contrarians like to see since it means that there is extra money that can come back into the stock market.
In a piece for Minyanville, John Gustafson, president of Palmetto Wealth Management, writes that retail-investor behavior is not even close to bubbly.
"There are no big, flashy warning signs that we saw prior to the last big falls -- probably because there are still so many things wrong economically and politically around the globe to forestall such overconfidence," he writes.
After Hours Summary: DRWI +16.1%, ZUMZ +10.5%, LL -19.1%, PBPB -16.4%, HELI -7.3%, TSCO -5.6% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: DRWI +16.1%, ZUMZ +10.5%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CWH +6.9% (co sold its 22 mln shares of Select Income REIT (SIR) for $31.51 per share; total consideration is ~$705 mln), UAL +6.4% (reported June 2014 consolidated traffic (RPM) was flat y/y, consolidated capacity (ASM) increased 0.8% vs June 2013, consolidated load factor decreased 0.6 points compared to June 2013), SSE +4.2% (Carl Icahn disclosed 9.98% stake in 13D filing), APP +3.6% (disclosed an agreement with Standard General Group; agreement relates to, among other things, the composition of the Company's Board of Directors, the provision by SG of financial support to the Company in an aggregate amount up to $25 million, and the creation of a special committee of the Board to oversee the continuing investigation into alleged misconduct by Dov Charney), ZNGA +1.7% (appointed Google VP Regina Dugan to Board of Directors), REGN +0.8% (co and Sanofi (SNY) announced positive results from Phase 2b study of dupilumab in patients with moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: LL -19.1%, PBPB -16.4%, HELI -7.3%, TSCO -5.6%, WDFC -5.3%, HELE -4.9%, BGC -0.1%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: MEMP -4.3% (announced public offering of 8.6 mln common units), AXLL -3.8% (announced that its PHH vinyl chloride monomer manufacturing facility in Lake Charles, Louisiana, has been repaired and the facility has returned to full operating rates; sees Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $125-130 mln), KOS -3.7% (announced that funds affiliated with The Blackstone Group L.P. and Warburg Pincus LLC have agreed to sell an aggregate of 17 mln of Kosmos's common shares in a registered underwritten public offering), RGDO -2.2% (announced clinical hold of REGULATE-PCI trial following voluntary halt of trial by Regado)