Reuters - Sweden passes 'good behaviour' law to kick out misbehaving immigrants

Sweden passes 'good behaviour' law to kick out misbehaving immigrants

STOCKHOLM, June 15 (Reuters) - Sweden's parliament passed a law on Monday allowing authorities to revoke immigrants' residency permits based on bad behaviour, ​such as having unpaid debts, doing undeclared work or ‌links to extremist organisations.

The law, which covers pending permits but also retroactively already granted permits, is part of a wider tightening of immigration ​rules by the right-wing government and its support party, ​the nationalist Sweden Democrats, ahead of a parliamentary election ⁠in September.

The law has been criticised by the opposition and ​human rights advocacy groups as arbitrary because decisions would be taken ​on behaviour that has not been deemed criminal.

"The good behaviour law leaves people in uncertainty about what actions or expressions can be used against ​them," Stockholm-based group Civil Rights Defenders said in a statement.

"It ​undermines the rule of law and the principle of equality before the ‌law."

The ⁠government, which won the 2022 election on a promise to reduce immigration and crack down on crime, has said that people who misbehave or commit crimes are not welcome.

The law does ​not specify what ​types of behaviours ⁠are deemed unacceptable but the government has mentioned unpaid debts, not paying taxes, criminality and ​links to extremist organisations. The Migration Agency is ​tasked with ⁠reviewing the permits and the decisions can be appealed to a migration court.

"Anyone who doesn't make the effort to do the ⁠right thing ​shouldn't be able to count on ​staying," Minister of Migration Johan Forssell said when he proposed the bill in ​March.

FT : The reclusive heirs in line for billions when Europe’s top tankmaker lists

The reclusive heirs in line for billions when Europe’s top tankmaker lists
Unlikely cast of characters who own half of KNDS set for a windfall as Berlin prepares to buy in at an up to €20bn valuation

Every year in a nondescript business hotel, an unlikely group of Germans including a vet, a stairlift salesman and a Mozart scholar are invited to discuss one of Europe’s most important defence companies.

They are the “Wegmann shareholders” — the secretive heirs who own half of KNDS, the Franco-German manufacturer of the Leopard and Leclerc tanks.

Few of the several dozen individuals are known beyond a narrow circle of advisers. Many of their colleagues and neighbours have no idea they co-own a company central to the continent’s rearmament.

But all are in line for windfalls as they prepare to sell up to the German state alongside a listing that could value the group at up to €20bn, raising awkward questions about who stands to gain from surging European military spending in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Sebastian Schäfer, a Green member of parliament who specialises in defence spending, supports the idea of Berlin taking a stake in KNDS.

However, he said he felt uncomfortable about “German families getting rich in a way that’s more 19th century than 21st century” — especially as the government takes on hundreds of billions of euros in debt to fund its ballooning military budget.

As KNDS prepares to file for its initial public offering as early as this week with a target valuation of €15bn-€20bn, the German government is seeking to acquire a 40 per cent stake in the company by buying a large chunk of the Wegmann shares.

Under the tentative plan, Paris, which owns the other half of the group, would also sell down its holding to leave it and Berlin with equal stakes, while the remaining shares would be freely floated.

The discussions have gone down to the wire. The French and German governments on Monday agreed a deal on governance and veto rights — including on executive appointments and technology sharing. But the families are demanding that Berlin pay above the market price determined by the IPO, which the German government says it cannot justify before parliament, according to three people familiar with the talks.

The individuals that make up the Wegmann group have already received substantial payouts. In November they shared a €1bn special dividend with the French government, according to the company’s recently published annual report, while a second tranche of undisclosed size is due to be paid out before the IPO.

Their annual dividend surged to €65mn in 2024, almost double the level in 2021 before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

KNDS said the €1bn payout was an integral part of its preparation for the listing in order to “adjust our balance sheet”.

Sascha Haghani, an adviser to the families, told the FT “it doesn’t make sense to leave a lot of cash — past profits — in the company” when preparing for a free float.

The company was still left with cash and cash equivalents of €2.3bn at the end of 2025 and net profits of almost €1bn. Its revenues have boomed in recent years, reaching €4.4bn last year — up from €2.7bn in 2021.

To critics, the dividends jar with the demands being placed on Europe’s arms industry, which is under pressure from governments to expand production.

Schäfer said weapons makers were constantly asking officials and lawmakers for advance payments to fund new facilities. To take so much cash out of KNDS against that backdrop, he said, did not “feel right”.

KNDS told the FT it planned to invest €1.5bn in industrial capital expenditure over the next two years.

While several people involved in the listing told the FT the families wanted to cash out to benefit from high valuations in the defence sector, Haghani insisted they were not driven by financial motives but by KNDS’s needs.

“From the outside, money might look like a major driver but that is not the motivation,” he said. “The motivation is: are we as the private shareholders able to manage all the challenges going forward for this company for the next decade? And to be honest, the clear answer is no. The company needs a new capital structure.”

The Wegmann shareholders own their stake through Wegmann Holding, whose origins stretch back to 1882 when it was a railway carriage maker in the central German city of Kassel.

Then known as Wegmann & Co, the company was partly taken over in 1912 by industrialist August Bode, whose descendants remain one of the biggest family groupings among KNDS shareholders.

Wegmann moved into tanks during the first world war and became part of the Nazi war machine in the second, using forced labour to manufacture tanks and gun turrets.

Bode, who joined the Nazi party in 1937, was later named by Adolf Hitler as one of 400 “war economy leaders”. Wegmann Holding, whose website does not mention this history, declined to comment. 

Following the war, the company returned to railway carriages as well as trams. But after West Germany began to re-arm in 1955, Wegmann became central to the development of the Leopard 1 tank, the forerunner to the Leopard 2 now used by 18 European nations.

For decades its central figure was Bode’s grandson Manfred, who presided over deals including the 1999 merger of Wegmann’s tank unit with German conglomerate Krauss-Maffei’s defence division and the 2015 tie-up with French state-owned defence group Nexter that created what is now KNDS.

One industry veteran described the Nexter merger as a “desperate move” to save the business — and to fend off rival tank-maker Rheinmetall, which had long coveted it.

At least 12 descendants of August Bode hold more than a third of Wegmann Holding’s shares.

The most prominent is Felix Bode, the only Wegmann shareholder with a seat on the KNDS board and boss of Wegmann Holding’s automotive parts division. His brother Stephan leads another unit that makes tank turret components. A third division manages the KNDS stake.

“In families you always have a leader, regardless of whether they are 10, 15, 20 members,” said one person familiar with the internal dynamics of KNDS since the French merger. “It was Manfred Bode and now it’s his son Felix Bode.”

But he added that Felix, like many of the other family shareholders, was “not interested in keeping the company” any more.

The brothers hold 12 per cent of the limited capital of Wegmann, putting them in line to share €1.2bn if KNDS achieves a €20bn valuation.

Another large group of shareholders is the von Braunbehrens, an intellectual family whose members include the Mozart musicologist and a scholar of language and texts.

They are descended from brothers Theodor and Julius Springmann, who bought stakes in Wegmann & Co and a predecessor company in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, according to Andreas Bornefeld, a researcher on Germany’s wealthiest families.

Over the past few years, however, the three elderly Braunbehrens siblings who continued to hold KNDS shares transferred them to a holding company linked to an obscure charitable foundation in the city of Heidelberg.

Projects listed on the Theodor Springmann Foundation’s website include a bibliography of historic German almanacs and a platform for publishing articles on the science of carpets and flatweave rugs. 

As of 2023, when the company published its most recent list of shareholders, the foundation was the ultimate owner of the largest single shareholding in Wegmann Holding, with a 24 per cent stake that would hand it €2.4bn if KNDS achieves the top end of its target range. The foundation did not respond to requests for comment, and an employee hung up when called by the FT.

A fourth sibling, 85-year-old leftwing artist Burkhart von Braunbehrens, left the company after publicly criticising a planned tank sale to Saudi Arabia more than a decade ago. Although initially barred from exiting, he received about €4mn for his stake following arbitration and used the proceeds to set up a foundation supporting migrants. “I’m a normal citizen now,” he told the FT.

Other shareholders include descendants of German industrialist Eduard Sethe as well as the children of a former company executive.

Wegmann asked the FT not to identify shareholders whose names were not already public, citing security concerns at a time when Russia has been targeting figures in the European defence industry.

Even without their names, their biographies make for an unusual cast. They include a transport lawyer, a tax adviser, a psychoanalyst, the owner of a shop selling mobility aids, a vet, a US-based landscape gardener and at least six children.

Haghani said the Wegmann owners had been careful, responsible stewards for more than a century, developing and safeguarding military technology for Germany even when there were barely any government contracts.

“Providing stability and a long-term future are the hallmarks of German family-owned businesses,” he said. “This also sets the Wegmann shareholders apart.”

But the expected sale to the German state has left some observers uneasy.

Moritz Schularick, head of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, is concerned Berlin will overpay.

“It’s bizarre that they announce all these contracts with the tank makers first and then decide to buy a stake after inflating the share price,” he said. “It’s like the opposite of a pump and dump scheme: pump and buy.”

Schäfer said that while he did not blame the family shareholders as individuals for making money from the planned sale, “we need to look at the structural problem — and that is in how wealth is inherited”.

For years, that inheritance was managed with little fuss. At the annual shareholders’ council, according to people with knowledge of the meetings, participants sit in a U-shape, ask questions about the business and break for a buffet lunch, with contentious issues settled out of sight.

Several people familiar with the company said managing their interests had been difficult at times but Haghani said they were now “united” on the decision to sell.

For Eric Brune, a longtime employee and union representative at KNDS in France, the sale marks the culmination of a gradual loosening of ties between the Wegmann shareholders and the business they inherited.

“As is typical in families, there are those who see themselves as the heirs to the family history — and then the generation that no longer sees itself that way.”

FT : Hedge funds bet against European carmakers on Chinese competition fears

Hedge funds bet against European carmakers on Chinese competition fears
Long-term debt and equity targeted as tens of billions of euros wiped off sector’s market value

Hedge funds are betting against the debt and equity of some of Europe’s largest carmakers, as the sector struggles to cope with growing competition from China.

Funds have upped their bets against the long-dated and perpetual debt of Stellantis, Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz this year — with bonds issued by the first two of these among the most shorted in Europe — on concerns that an influx of Chinese competitors, sluggish demand and US tariffs pose long-term threats to the European industry.

Carmakers’ equity is also being targeted, with tens of billions of euros wiped off the sector’s market value this year. Marshall Wace and Two Sigma were among those running short bets, according to data group Breakout Point.

“China has become a source of competition rather than profits,” said Adrien Brasey, an automotive equity analyst at AlphaValue. “Investors are increasingly questioning whether the industry’s earnings power can ever return to pre China-slowdown levels.

“[Investors] are probably realising that this isn’t a cyclical decline but much more of a structural one,” he added.

A bond issued by Stellantis — which owns brands including Jeep, Fiat, Vauxhall and Citroën — was the most shorted in the European investment-grade category tracked by Bank of America, as of late May.

More than 18 per cent of the group’s €800mn bond maturing in 2035 was on loan — a proxy for short selling — as of June 12, up from 14 per cent at the start of the year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. Funds are also shorting 7.2 per cent of a €500mn Stellantis bond maturing in 2036 and 9.7 per cent of its €1.8bn perpetual bond issued in March, according to S&P.

In the company’s equity, investors are betting against 5.8 per cent of its free float, up from 1 per cent at the end of December. Hedge funds Marshall Wace, Two Sigma and Kintbury Capital were among those running bets against the shares, according to Breakout Point.

“Market share gains from Chinese [manufacturers] are clearly a major factor driving the short interest in some of the European automakers,” said Tom Steabler, a senior credit investment analyst at Federated Hermes. “[They] are now highly competitive on battery technology, software integration and manufacturing efficiency.”


BYD and other brands from China — the world’s biggest car exporter — have made inroads into European markets with affordable electric vehicles and hybrids. In the first four months of the year, Chinese manufacturers including BYD and Geely took an 8.5 per cent share of the EU market, compared with 6 per cent in the same period a year earlier, according to European car industry body Acea.

Stellantis, Volkswagen and Renault this month called for the introduction of “Made in EU” targets that would reward manufacturers that keep production in the bloc, as a way of trying to safeguard the future of the European industry.

Volkswagen was ranked as having the third-most shorted investment-grade bond in Europe at the end of May, according to BofA. The company’s riskier perpetual bonds have been targeted, with shorts against its €750mn junior note jumping from under 9 per cent at the start of the year to 16.2 per cent in June. Shorts against a €750mn perpetual bond have risen from 4.6 per cent to 7.9 per cent.

Chinese companies’ rapid advances in software were giving them an advantage over Europe, AlphaValue’s Brasey said.

“By the time one [European] automaker launches a new vehicle, Chinese competitors have often already launched two, integrating the latest battery technologies and the most up-to-date software and digital features,” he said.

This week, BYD announced plans to spend nearly €2bn by the end of 2027 to develop infrastructure in Europe for its five-minute “flash-charging”.

“Chinese manufacturers have both the balance sheets and the strategic ambition to keep expanding aggressively in Europe. If they continue combining rapid innovation cycles with lower price points, that creates a difficult backdrop for the established European carmakers,” Federated Hermes’ Steabler said.


In response, European carmakers have increasingly struck partnerships with Chinese manufacturers to benefit from the country’s lower costs and advanced technologies. Chinese carmakers have also been taking over excess production lines from their European rivals.

Funds are shorting BMW’s €750mn 2035 bond and two €500mn bonds due in 2032 and 2033. Bets against a €300mn 2030 bond issued by Mercedes-Benz have risen from 5.5 per cent to 9.2 per cent since the start of the year.

Marshall Wace, Kintbury and Citadel Advisors were also shorting Renault stock, according to Breakout Point.

BMW, Stellantis and VW declined to comment. Mercedes-Benz and Renault did not respond to requests for comment.

FT : Private equity bosses warn of AI threat to bets on law and accountancy

Private equity bosses warn of AI threat to bets on law and accountancy
Buyout groups that have invested heavily in professional services face disruption from developing technology

Law and accountancy are among the businesses most vulnerable to AI disruption, top private capital executives have warned, adding to the worries of buyout groups that have invested heavily in professional services.

The rapid development of generative AI has already hit the valuations of software businesses but private equity and credit investors told the FT that asset-light advisory businesses that bill by the hour were also at serious risk.

“Software has dominated the headlines but AI goes so much further,” said Kevin Marchetti, chief investment officer and head of US direct lending at Man Group. “Claims auditing, billing automation, proxy voting management or legal services . . . you could really foresee how AI could impact them.”

Executives at the sector’s annual SuperReturn conference in Berlin said the technology could disrupt businesses across a swath of sectors backed by private equity groups, after software buyout deals collapsed this year over fears that new AI tools would undermine those companies’ business models. 

“Apologies to the lawyers, accountants, consultants in the room,” Apollo Global Management executive Scott Kleinman told SuperReturn delegates. “You’re going to see a lot of pressure.” 

Shares in Accenture, the world’s largest listed consultancy, have fallen by almost half in the past year, indicating the scale of investors’ fears that AI will damage professional services groups.

Executives said that private capital groups were starting to shun new investments in some professional services firms because of uncertainty over their long-term revenues and valuations.

“Few . . . are looking to invest in certain white-collar services companies undergoing a revolution in their business model and which are more exposed to AI displacement risk,” said Joana Rocha Scaff, head of European private equity at Neuberger Berman.

Scaff said groups performing writing, translation and legal services were particularly vulnerable. While AI offered efficiency and margin improvement, “there are also risks of revenue disruptions, especially if they charge by man hours”, she added.

Professional services groups that are not operating in regulated sectors are seen by some investors as particularly exposed to disruption by AI.

“We looked at bookkeeping businesses charging by the hour, which we felt were particularly exposed [as they did not do regulated audit work],” said Andrew Sillitoe, co-chief executive of Apax Partners. “On the other hand, the value of having your accounts signed off by an auditor is so much more than the sum of the person-hours taken to do it. Here, AI automation should be a tailwind.”

AI disruption of professional services groups threatens to dent returns for private equity firms that have poured billions of dollars into the sector in recent years, attracted by their low capital expenditure and the opportunity to roll up smaller groups.

Last year, a Blackstone-led group bought a majority stake in Citrin Cooperman from smaller buyout rival New Mountain Capital for more than $2bn. New Mountain and Cinven have also bought stakes in Grant Thornton’s US, UK and Germany arms.

Legal services groups have also been targets, with Inflexion taking UK law firm DWF private in 2023. In the US, buyout groups have also been developing corporate structures to allow them to back legal firms, which have traditionally operated as partnerships with little or no external investment.

Executives said they were increasingly focused on sectors such as industrials, where companies hold significant assets and have a low risk of being rendered obsolete by technology — dubbed the halo trade.

“It’s weird that the market only cares about software,” said a top credit executive at one of the biggest private capital groups. “AI could be valuable to accounting firms, but will small accounting roll-ups be able to compete with KPMG [in deploying AI]?”

Other buyout executives with investments in accounting groups said, however, that those that deployed AI well and adapted to new revenue models could benefit from the changes sweeping the sector.

FT : Europe’s AI champion Mistral vulnerable to Russian disinformation, study fi

Europe’s AI champion Mistral vulnerable to Russian disinformation, study finds
Open-source generative models are worse at removing false news than others, according to Estonian researchers

Europe’s Mistral and other open-source generative AI models are among the least able to filter out Russian disinformation, according to an analysis by Estonian researchers seeking ways to counter growing propaganda.

Anthropic’s Claude and even some versions of Chinese systems and Grok are better at removing claims of false information produced by Russia that are designed to manipulate international public opinion, according to the work by the state-backed Institute of the Estonian Language.

Its analysis shows that even the most advanced Mistral system ranks only 47th out of 60 GenAI models scrutinised, and all four versions score less than 40 per cent in their effectiveness in identifying sources identified as “malicious” Russian propaganda.

Arvi Tavast, director of the institute, said the work underscored the dangers of open-source models over commercial ones, which many government and security organisations cannot use because of concerns over sharing confidential information.

“It appears that commercial models are safer and more resistant than open-source models,” he said. “We expected Mistral to perform better, but it didn’t. It was outgunned by Chinese models.”

The analysis raises questions over the variable quality of different generative AI systems operating in democratic societies at a time of growing concern that they are being used to produce and fact-check news and analysis drawn from rising volumes of mis- and disinformation.

Separate work by groups including the Digital Forensic Research Lab shows a rise in Russian propaganda from a few dozen daily articles in 2023 to nearly 10,000 today, with periodic targeted campaigns such as interference in European elections designed to support pro-Kremlin candidates.

The findings have implications for governments, educational users and others negotiating with different GenAI providers, including Estonia, which currently has contracts with OpenAI and Google for widespread use in its school system.

The institute tested the different GenAI models using 75 different questions in three languages — English, Russian and Estonian — to see how far they were able to identify bias as well as malicious questions that try to manipulate the model into producing output that supports propaganda or relies on misinformation.

It considered 14 themes it identified as Russian propaganda, including claims that Russia was rescuing Ukrainian children from war zones through legitimate evacuation; that Nato broke promises not to expand eastward after German reunification; that Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians are not separate peoples; and that the USSR “was a peace-loving victim that selflessly liberated Europe from fascism”.

Mistral said it “takes the fight against disinformation extremely seriously and continuously invests in advanced detection and prevention capabilities to address the dynamic and growing threat landscape”. It said the Estonian study examined its “raw models, before they are tuned and controlled by customers”.

It added that its Vibe Work function for users “incorporates robust filtering layers designed to detect and prevent disputable sources. We are constantly enhancing these safeguards to stay ahead of emerging risks and ensure safe, responsible AI deployment.”

Since it was founded in 2023, Mistral has been held up as one of Europe’s brightest prospects in an AI market that is dominated by US and Chinese companies. Led by a trio of former Meta and Google researchers, last September it secured €1.3bn in backing from Europe’s most valuable company, chip equipment manufacturer ASML.

However, its funding lags far behind the leading private AI research labs in Silicon Valley, OpenAI and Anthropic, and many in the industry see its “open” models as lagging behind those released by Chinese players such as DeepSeek and Moonshot.

Mistral is investing heavily to expand its AI infrastructure to capitalise on growing demand from European businesses and governments for “sovereign” alternatives to US Big Tech companies.

It plans to spend €4bn on Nvidia-powered data centres, including facilities in France and Sweden, in the coming years. Valued at nearly €12bn last year, it is on track to surpass $1bn in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026, its chief executive Arthur Mensch told the FT in February.

FT : EU could fund migrant detention centres abroad

EU could fund migrant detention centres abroad
Germany and Italy are pushing for next budget to include ‘return hubs’ based outside the bloc

EU countries are paving the way for funding controversial deportation centres beyond the bloc’s borders with EU money, in the latest sign of Europe’s tougher stance on migration.

It would mark a further step towards outsourcing migration control, despite warnings from critics that such arrangements would weaken legal and human rights safeguards.

EU governments’ position on the bloc’s next budget, which will run from 2028 to 2034, says “innovative solutions” for managing migration could be financed through the EU’s foreign aid and external spending instrument. The position paper is due to be adopted by EU affairs ministers on Tuesday.

“Innovative solutions” has become Brussels shorthand for controversial plans, including so-called return hubs — de facto detention centres — in non-EU countries where rejected asylum seekers who cannot be deported to their home countries would be sent.

The “external dimension” to migration policy, including return hubs, could receive up to €20bn over seven years — about 10 per cent of the bloc’s external action budget — people familiar with the discussions said.

“It creates an opening to provide EU funding . . . if and when return hubs come into being,” said one EU diplomat.

The figures could still change during the budget negotiations. But the inclusion of return hubs in EU budget legislation marks a shift from the European Commission’s previous refusal to fund physical infrastructure aimed at preventing irregular migration. In 2021, as Poland and the Baltic states pressed Brussels to fund border barriers to prevent people crossing from Belarus, Commission president Ursula von der Leyen insisted there would be “no funding of barbed wire and walls”.

In recent years, however, the EU has signed controversial agreements with Turkey, Tunisia and other countries to curb immigration, which have also included funding for physical infrastructure such as border posts.

The push to fund return hubs is being led by Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and Austria, and is backed by a majority of member states. It comes despite a mixed record in establishing such centres, including Italy’s contested scheme in Albania and inconclusive Dutch talks with Uganda.

The Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Denmark and Greece are currently in talks with potential host nations and hope to reach agreements by the end of the year. Officials are keeping potential locations closely guarded to avoid a repeat of the political fallout that accompanied the UK’s Rwanda plan.

Last month Austria signed an agreement with Uzbekistan that included the “transit of persons to be deported to their home country”. African countries are also in discussion, though officials have declined to offer further details.

The return-hub concept has gained traction as governments struggle to increase deportations of rejected asylum seekers, often because their home countries refuse to take them back.

Earlier this month, the European parliament and member states agreed harsher measures that will facilitate deportations and create the legal framework for return hubs.

FT : UniCredit’s knack for clever deals proves unexpectedly costly

UniCredit’s knack for clever deals proves unexpectedly costly
Andrea Orcel has taken an unhelpfully circuitous route to acquiring Commerzbank

Andrea Orcel became one of Europe’s best-paid bankers thanks to a reputation for being clever when it came to driving deals. The UniCredit chief’s approach to winning control of Commerzbank shows there’s a fine line between creative thinking and overthinking.

Orcel’s bid for his German rival has been anything but simple. UniCredit started quietly building a stake in Commerzbank back in 2023, then increased it with the help of derivatives contracts known as total return swaps. That was shrewd: UniCredit ended up with control over 29 per cent of Commerz’s shares, much of that acquired at a sharp discount to net asset value, and stole a march on any would-be rival bidders.


Rather than make an offer for the rest investors couldn’t resist, though, Orcel made one that a regular investor would have no incentive to accept. It is offering to exchange each Commerzbank share for just under half a UniCredit share, a deal which, at current prices, is a discount to Commerz’s market value.

Surprisingly, by the end of last week, around 12 per cent of Commerzbank shareholders had accepted UniCredit’s offer. Commerzbank has asked regulators to probe the situation, and says most of the support for the deal comes from banks “connected” to UniCredit. Several have been previously listed in filings as counterparties to the Italian bank’s total return swaps. UniCredit has recently reported further swap positions. It’s not inconceivable that counterparties might be incentivised to buy and tender Commerzbank shares to hedge their own positions.

In the short term, the tactic moves Orcel closer to winning control at a below-market price. But that could come at a cost. A victorious UniCredit would still have to manage its target’s 40,000 staff, millions of customers, a suspicious regulator and a very ticked-off government. Those aren’t insurmountable challenges, but the appearance of having won through cunning rather than generosity could be unhelpful. Domestic rival Deutsche Bank will no doubt be keen to snap up market share where it can.

What if UniCredit had just made a straightforward takeover bid back in 2024 around the time it first revealed a 21 per cent stake? The German government would have been reluctant, but with a rich price on the table and the bulk of independent shareholders in favour, that resistance would have been harder to sustain. After all, the European Central Bank wants to see consolidation. As things stand, UniCredit may have to pay a high price to buy shares that aren’t tendered, and doing so could be time-consuming.

Dealmaking is much easier in hindsight, of course. Orcel may feel that these intricacies are worth it in the name of creating a transnational European giant. But the situation is a reminder that sometimes, even in an industry as beloved of complexity as finance, the simplest path is the best.

FT : How an AI windfall gave Bain Capital one of the most lucrative private equi

How an AI windfall gave Bain Capital one of the most lucrative private equity deals ever
US firm stands to pocket profits of $15bn on 2018 buyout of Kioxia, the former Toshiba Memory

Bain Capital has notched up one of the most lucrative private equity deals on record after the memory chipmaker it bought eight years ago became one of Japan’s most valuable companies following a share price surge of more than 5,000 per cent.

Bain stands to pocket profits of more than $15bn on its 2018 buyout of Kioxia — then called Toshiba Memory — according to multiple people familiar with the matter.

The deal is set to return close to 20 times Bain’s investment as Kioxia’s value has soared since being listed in 2024, including a windfall of more than $8bn for the US firm’s 12th flagship PE fund.

The memory chipmaker has jumped 700 per cent this year and is now Japan’s most valuable company, worth more than ¥51tn ($318bn) — more than Toyota or SoftBank. Kioxia is also on track to be the best-performing stock on the MSCI World index for two years running.

Bain Capital has now sold most of its own stake, say people close to the fund, leaving some money on the table. However, the wider Bain-led consortium that includes South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix still owns about 18 per cent, meaning a significant chunk of the profits remains unrealised.

The gross profit on the trade for the consortium could be well over $70bn and rising, according to market calculations.


Bain’s Kioxia trade has already overtaken the $14bn that Blackstone’s funds made on Hilton Hotels and is in the same ballpark as Silver Lake’s 2013 purchase of Dell and 3G’s gains from Burger King. Those deals are routinely cited among the best-performing private equity trades on record.

Silver Lake still owns close to 7 per cent of Dell, so its gains will rise or fall with public markets. Silver Lake has made more than 18 times the $1.8bn it invested, helped by Dell’s stock nearly tripling over the past year on AI demand, and the tech giant’s $92bn sale of VMware. That deal generated a near $10bn windfall for the PE firm’s investors.

Some investments have delivered even larger returns. Lime Rock Partners made an estimated 79-fold return from selling a fracking business to Occidental Petroleum but involved much smaller initial investments.

Steven Kaplan, an expert on private equity who teaches at the University of Chicago, said that while venture capital relied on occasional blockbuster deals to make up for failures, private equity preferred steadier returns. A return of more than 15 times the investment in such a large deal was extremely rare, he added.

The scale of Bain’s returns is both a demonstration of the fund’s success after 20 years in Japan and a potential risk for an industry enjoying a rare wave of political support. Private equity and activist investors have been viewed as ways to shake up sleepy corporate Japan, in turn boosting returns and the stock market and getting the country’s ageing population invested.

Bain insiders are keen to downplay the scale of its gains, amid concern that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may be forced to respond to public anger. It could also accelerate a political desire to foster a domestic private equity industry capable of competing at scale for Japan’s most attractive corporate assets. 

Bain led the $18bn buyout of Kioxia in 2018, in Asia’s largest private equity deal at the time. Toshiba, which invented Nand flash memory in the 1980s, was forced to sell its crown jewel following an accounting scandal.

At closing, Toshiba — now owned by Japanese PE firm JIP, which is also reaping large-scale rewards — and another Japanese company held a slim majority of the business. It was carefully constructed to keep the Japanese government happy and beat rival bids by KKR and Western Digital, Broadcom and Taiwan’s Foxconn.

“We stretched ourselves to execute this deal,” said Masa Suekane, a Bain deal maker who led the transaction and is on the Kioxia board. “Japanese companies get majority ownership . . . we controlled the governance.”

Bain also protected itself in the deal by bringing in customers like Apple into the consortium. SK Hynix, say people familiar with the matter, accepted lower returns for its equity stake to ensure Kioxia was not bought by a rival. SK Hynix declined to comment.

“It’s the most cyclical and capital-intensive industry so . . . we wanted to protect ourselves on the downside,” said one of the people familiar with Bain. 

Justifying its concern, Kioxia — which combines the Japanese word for “memory” and the Greek word for “value” — was hit hard by the crash in demand for memory chips after the pandemic.

The first attempts to float the company in 2020 were aborted and efforts to merge Kioxia with rival Western Digital collapsed soon after, with SK Hynix concerned that the new company could challenge its position in the Nand memory market.

As a result, Bain’s buyout of Kioxia was in “deep trouble” even after its IPO, with the valuation well below the buyout price, says one of the people familiar with the matter. Bain was forced to refinance and drum up capital through the sale and leaseback of buildings and extending debt agreements.

Critics of Bain — and private equity in general — say the firm did not do enough to invest in Kioxia. Its Nand market share has dropped from about 19 per cent when Bain took over to 14 per cent, according to TrendForce, a Taiwanese research company, as China’s YMTC has emerged as a fierce competitor.

Rivals Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron elevated themselves in the AI hardware hierarchy by investing aggressively through the downturn to commercialise high-bandwidth memory — ultrafast memory for real-time AI tasks.

By contrast, the Japanese group focused only on Nand memory, which functions more like a filing cabinet, storing long-term data that AI models need for inference. The focus by competitors on high-bandwidth memory has helped stoke undersupply for Nand memory.

Bain insiders reject those claims, citing big spending on fabrication plants during the industry downturn, as it revamped the company’s pay, governance and financial reporting practices. It also gave stock options to about 700 employees.

Although existing management was kept, it brought in former Intel executive Stacy J. Smith as chair, prioritising experience in building commercial capability.

“It would be easy for a private equity company to come in and say ‘well, cut that, maximise cash flow and pay ourselves a big dividend’. Bain does not do that,” Smith said.

Bain’s original thesis for the buyout included that data centres would provide significant growth due to the rise of cloud storage. And, says Suekane, when they promoted the IPO six years later, AI and the rise of inference had become part of the pitch. 

Bain remains adamant that its success with Kioxia stems from the groundwork done over the firm’s two decades in Japan, during which time it has notched up more than 45 deals with no bankruptcies. The firm’s record in the region helped to propel Asia head David Gross to run Bain globally this year.

FT : China retail sales sink for first time since Covid

China retail sales sink for first time since Covid
Investment slump deepens as divergence widens in second-biggest economy

China’s retail sales declined in May for the first time in more than three years and an investment slump deepened, as monthly economic indicators flashed warning signs for the trajectory of the world’s second-biggest economy.

Retail sales fell 0.6 per cent year on year in May, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday, the first decline since December 2022 when Covid-19 swept through the country after restrictions were eased.

Fixed asset investment was down 4.1 per cent for the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, steepening from a 1.6 per cent year-on-year decline over the January-to-April period.

Taken together, the figures pointed towards rising pressures in the Chinese economy, with policymakers struggling to counter weak consumer confidence and the effects of a property sector slowdown now in its fifth year.

Against that backdrop, Beijing has relied heavily on exports, which increased 19.4 per cent last month, to support growth. Industrial production grew 4.5 per cent year on year in May, NBS data showed, up from 4.1 per cent in April.

“The divergence within China’s economy is widening,” noted Lynn Song, chief China economist at ING.


Fu Linghui, NBS chief economist, said China’s economy “continued its overall stable and positive development trend”.

But he cited high temperatures and heavy rainfall as contributing to a “larger than expected” decline in fixed asset investment, which includes real estate development and capital construction projects.

“The contradiction between strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market remains prominent,” Fu said.

China’s monthly economic gauges are closely watched, especially as the country does not release quarterly GDP data based on the expenditure approach — a measure published quarterly by other major economies that comprises investment, consumption and net exports.

Retail sales data, widely used as a proxy for consumption, only covers goods and catering, while sectoral breakdowns by value for fixed asset investment were discontinued from 2018.

Fu said the NBS was publishing a new indicator for retail sales combining goods and services, which was up 2.8 per cent over the first five months of 2026 on the same period last year. The statistical agency did not provide a monthly figure.

Song at ING noted that retail sales saw “outsized drops” in categories which had previously benefited from a consumer goods trade-in scheme such as household appliances. “We’re now seeing the flip side of frontloading consumption,” he wrote.

The property sector also continued to struggle in May. New home prices, for which China releases limited data spanning 70 major cities, fell 0.2 per cent on average on the previous month.

Property investment is down 16.2 per cent in the first five months, compared with the same period a year earlier, worsening from 13.7 per cent over the first four months of 2026.

Fixed asset investment, long a subject of data quality concerns, declined last year as President Xi Jinping stepped up a campaign against wasteful spending, though it had recovered in the first quarter of 2026.

China’s economy has grappled with deflation for years amid concerns about overcapacity from trading partners. But higher energy costs from the US-Israeli war in Iran have spurred factory-gate prices higher, while CPI inflation has been in positive territory since October.

China has set a target for 2026 GDP growth of 4.5-5 per cent, its lowest in decades.