BUY – also buy Asos (ASC LN)
YOOX IM: Eur 17.30; ASC LN: 23.87
August 6, 2014
We recommend building-up an investment position in Yoox. Yoox is a leading online fashion/lifestyle store. The company was founded in 2000 and has been growing furiously with sales expected to reach over $1bn next year. The company has long-standing relationships with designers, manufacturers, and official retailers worldwide.
The stock is listed in Milan, and it was IPOed in Dec 2009 at Eur 4.30. The shares rose to almost Eur 35 at the end of 2013, and have been correcting since then to the current Eur 17 level. We believe that at the current share price the stock is starting to look undervalued at 11.5x 2016 ebitda given its growth potential and even its takeover attractiveness to an Amazon, or a major fashion retailer that could gain a high quality on-line presence immediately. We note that Yoox runs Kering’s online business for most of its brands. Richemont is also the owner of Net-a-Porter, a competitor to Yoox. As luxury fashion starts moving increasingly on-line, Yoox is particularly well placed to become a strategic investment. The current correction represents an opportunity to enter the investment at favorable long-term valuations.
http://www.yooxgroup.com/en/investor_relation/press_releases/presentations_2014.asp
Both Yoox and Asos are attractive and we recommend both as BUYS, with a preference for Yoox because of its luxury positioning. We also withdraw our SELL on Amazon and move to a HOLD rating. The stock is down almost 25% year to date just when profitability is (finally?) about to explode (from 2015 onward).
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
SELL/SHORT – partial long hedge with Glaxo
NOVN VX: CHF 78.25
August 6, 2014
We recommend selling/shorting Novartis. We have highlighted in various long/short MRPT reports the overvaluation of Novartis within the global pharma space. We re-iterate our bearish view on Novartis based on significant overvaluation and lack of growth. Moreover, not that we ascribe a lot of value to that kind of voodooesque analysis, but the charts “look” horrible.
Novartis is most mean reverting with Glaxo and Sanofi. Interestingly it is not mean reverting vs. “across the street” competitor Roche of which it owns 33%. We have recommended recently in our MRPT model a long GSK / short NOVN position which was closed for loss limit reasons. On value/fundamental grounds we continue to recommend this long/short trade. However, given the overvaluation of Novartis and the very extended relative performance of the sector vs. the MSCI World Index, we would recommend such long/short trade with a SHORT BIAS (the timing is a bit off for long SAN FP/short NOVN, but this is also a justifiable trade).
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
2014-08-07 06:35:38.292 GMT
By Kurt Schussler
Aug. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Raises full-yr net income target 4.3%
to 49b yen; analyst est. 47.8b yen.
* Increases oper. profit forecast 1.2% to 84b yen; est. 84.6b
yen (12 analysts)
* For 1H ended June 30:
* Net income +41% y/y to 21.8b yen; est. 19.5b yen (3
analysts)
* Oper. profit +18% to 35.1b yen; est. 36.1b yen (5
analysts)
* Sales +9.5% to 378.6b yen; est. 377.5b yen (4 analysts)
* Table
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