>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of December 2014

>>> Up
*FORTUM RAISED TO BUY FROM SELL AT INVESTEC
*MAJESTIC WINE RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT LIBERUM
*MTN GROUP RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*STATOIL ASA RAISED TO HOLD AT SANTANDER
*SUPERGROUP RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT LIBERUM

>>> Down
*ABERDEEN ASSET CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL; PT GBP500
*GEM EQUITIES CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS BENCHMARK AT CREDIT SUISSE
*KGHM CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT ING
*PARAGON CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT RBC
*SAAB CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*AECI RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT 15,500 RAND
*GENEL ENERGY RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES
*INTEGER RATED NEW SELL AT ING, PT 161 ZLOTY
*OMNIA HOLDINGS RATED NEW SELL AT UBS, PT 19,000 RAND
*SUMMIT GERMANY RATED NEW BUY AT LIBERUM, PT EU0.95

>>> Call
>> Stock
*BHP BILLITON, UBS, DANONE ADDED TO CITI EUROPE FOCUS LIST
*EON, EDF, Drax, Centrica Undervalued Industrial Leaders: Goldman
*RIO TINTO, SIEMENS REMOVED FROM EUROPE FOCUS LIST AT CITI
>> Country
*U.K. EQUITIES RAISED TO BENCHMARK VS UNDERWEIGHT: CREDIT SUISSE
*GERMANY, SPAIN EQUITIES RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT CREDIT SUISSE
*FRANCE EQUITIES CUT TO BENCHMARK AT CREDIT SUISSE

>>> Grand Marnier could attract interest from major competitors, including Sunto

Grand Marnier could attract interest from major competitors, including Suntory

Grand Marnier, the French-listed cognac, Armagnac, pineau and wine producer, is understood to be looking for a stronger partner that could commercialise the products of the group worldwide, the French daily Le Figaro reported.

The unsourced report said that the family shareholders of Grand Marnier, which control 60%of the voting rights in the company, are being advised by Transaction R, part of the Rothschild group. They could be willing to sell a shareholding in the Grand Marnier brand, while retaining the production and real estate assets of the group. The report cited persons familiar with the matter as saying that this “complex” scheme could be but a prelude to an entire sale of the business.

According to the report, all the major drinks and spirits group have been contacted. Interested bidders could include US group Brown-Forman, Bermuda's Bacardi, Italy’s Campari, UK’s Diageo and William Grant, and French groups Pernod Ricard and LVMH. The report went on to say that the Japanese group Suntory could be especially interested in Grand Marnier and ready to splash out. France's Remy Cointreau, a direct competitor to Grand Marnier with its Cointreau brand, is not interested, the report said.

Grand Marnier reported operating profits of EUR 20.6m on revenues of EUR 126.8m in 2013. The company has a market capitalisation of EUR 387m, the piece noted.

Le Figaro

(Les Echos) Henri Giscard d'Estaing: "The offer of Fosun is in the interest of t

Henri Giscard d'Estaing: "The offer of Fosun is in the interest of the Club Med"

For the owner of Club Med, offering Chinese Fosun is a long-term industrial project.

The bidding is below the course of Club Méditerranée Exchange. Is it not leave the door open to a new cons-offer Andrea Bonomi?
Fosun and its partners are reasonable and responsible people. They know that the current valuation levels are very high even if their long-term commitment and opportunities for synergies justify their offer. It is my responsibility to corporate officer to say that this offer is in the interests of the company and it must end this endless escalation which the mine.

A reconciliation Andrea Bonomi is it still possible?
For me, there is no opposition between men. I'm the one who hired an attempt at dialogue there are several months between him and the president of Fosun. Andrea Bonomi then refused the proposals made to him to participate in an offer on a par with Fosun. However, there is an opposition project. The arrival of KKR [support Andrea Bonomi since November 11, Ed] demonstrates a financial logic and short term. Fosun The project is completely different, it is a long-term industrial project.

Andrea Bonomi told to enroll in the long term and has even committed to an additional € 150 million for investment ...
How can he do with the current valuation of the Club? KKR has in addition a private equity logical therefore short term. Their offer is also not true industrial partners, particularly in China. However, the development of the Club in China will not happen against Fosun. I would say that the KKR-Global Resorts project carries with it a risk of dismantling because it actually involves a drastic reduction of costs and massive transfers of assets. This is why there is growing concern in the business.

How do you explain the concerns about, conversely, the draft Fosun? Some unions have perceived as a failover from the epicenter of the company to China ...
This is normal because of the endless hype, but things are very clear today. With Fosun, there is an offer based on the Club's strategy, a long-term commitment, confirming the French anchorage, the arrival of our Brazilian partner Nelson Tanure confirming the opening to other industry partners, the ambition to make the Club the world leader in all-inclusive luxury.

(Les Echos) Henri Giscard d’Estaing : « L’offre de Fosun est dans l’intérêt du C

Pour le patron du Club Med, l’offre du chinois Fosun est un projet industriel à long terme.

La surenchère est en deçà du cours de Bourse du Club Méditerranée. N’est-ce pas laisser la porte ouverte à une nouvelle contre-offre d’Andrea Bonomi ?
Fosun et ses partenaires sont des gens raisonnables et responsables. Ils savent que les niveaux actuels de valorisation sont très élevés même si leur engagement de long terme et les possibilités de synergies justifient leur offre. Il est de ma responsabilité de mandataire social de dire que cette offre est dans l’intérêt de l’entreprise et qu’il faut mettre fin à cette surenchère interminable qui la mine.

Un rapprochement avec Andrea Bonomi est-il encore possible ?
Pour moi, il n’y a pas d’opposition entre les hommes. Je suis celui qui a engagé une tentative de dialogue il y a plusieurs mois entre lui et le président de Fosun. Andrea Bonomi a alors refusé les propositions qui lui ont été faites de participer à une offre, à parité, avec Fosun. En revanche, il y a une opposition de projets. L’arrivée de KKR [soutien d’Andrea Bonomi depuis le 11 novembre, NDLR] témoigne d’une logique financière et de court terme. Le projet Fosun est totalement différent, c’est un projet industriel de long terme.

Andrea Bonomi dit s’inscrire dans le long terme et s’est même engagé sur 150 millions d’euros supplémentaires pour l’investissement...
Comment peut-il faire avec la valorisation actuelle du Club ? KKR a de surcroît une logique de capital-investissement donc de court terme. Leur offre n’a en outre pas de véritables partenaires industriels, en particulier en Chine. Or, le développement du Club en Chine ne se fera pas contre Fosun. Je dirais même que le projet KKR-Global Resorts porte en lui un risque de démantèlement parce qu’il implique en réalité une réduction drastique des coûts et des cessions d’actifs massives. C’est pour cela que l’inquiétude grandit dans l’entreprise.

Comment expliquez-vous les inquiétudes que suscite, a contrario, le projet de Fosun ? Certains syndicats l’ont perçu comme un basculement de l’épicentre de la société vers la Chine...
C’est normal du fait de cette interminable surenchère, mais aujourd’hui les choses sont très claires. Avec Fosun, il y a une offre fondée sur la stratégie du Club, un engagement de long terme, la confirmation de l’ancrage français, l’arrivée de notre partenaire brésilien Nelson Tanure qui confirme l’ouverture à d’autres partenaires industriels, l’ambition de faire du Club le numéro un mondial des vacances tout compris haut de gamme

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: RBA maintains neutral posture as building approvals bounce


***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: 11.4% (14-month high) V 5.0%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V -6.0%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (A$): -12.5B V -13.5BE; NET EXPORTS OF GDP: 0.8% V 0.7%E
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.9 v 114.3 prior
- (JP) JAPAN NOV MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 36.7% V 36.9% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥262.7T V ¥259.5T PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN OCT LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.5% V 0.8%E (8TH CONSECUTIVE INCREASE)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: -1.6% V -0.8% PRIOR (8th consecutive decline)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.1%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX +1.3%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 2,052

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -1.1% at $1,204, Jan crude oil -0.8% at $68.45/brl, Mar copper -0.7% at $2.88/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,891 tonnes from 10,822 tonnes prior (multi-year high)
- CME Increases margins for Natural Gas (11%), Diesel (15%), and Gasoline (14.6%) futures contracts
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (2nd consecutive halt)
- (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.20T in 0.5% (0.5% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg Yield: 0.473% v 0.439% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.01x v 3.50x prior

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Australia was in focus in today's session, as a sharp u-turn higher in commodities helped S&P/ASX outperform regional indices after it fell to 6-week lows overnight. Trading in AUD was also volatile - the Aussie initially fell about 20pips on the report that Deutsche Bank is now forecasting two 25bp rate cuts in 2015. Note that Credit Suisse swaps are already pricing in about an 80% probability of a 25bp easing over the next 12 months. Australia Building Approvals' strong sequential growth helped reverse the slide, as permits rose at the fastest pace in 14 months. Finally, the RBA policy statement sent AUD up some 50pips to $0.8525 as it largely maintained its neutral stance without caving to slower China economy and falling commodity prices. RBA reiterated policy is appropriately configured, prudent course is a period of stability in rates, inflation would be consistent with target range, and China growth is in line with objectives. The most notable new component of the statement featured a nudge for "lower AUD likely needed to achieve balanced growth", but was not sufficient against rising expectations of a more dovish tilt.

- Shanghai Composite continued to rally, testing above 2,700 mark. Report out of S&P forecasted 2015 China GDP slowing further to about 7%, with a 25% probability that growth would slow to 6%.

- USD/JPY traded in a 25pip range below 118.50, with the overnight Moody's sovereign rating cut of Japan largely dismissed as a catch-up move. The analyst who made the call appeared on CNBC, stating the delay in sales tax hike was the primary reason for the cut as it increased uncertainty over achievability of primary budget balance by the govt's 2020 target. Separately, an S&P report also stated the implementation of a future sales tax hike is uncertain as political dynamic could still change. A Nikkei report speculated the ruling LDP party needs to secure at least 60% of lower house seats in the Dec 14 polls to preserve the stock market rally.

***Equities***
US markets:
- CY: Agrees to merge with Spansion in $4B all-stock transaction; +12.2% afterhours
- RCL: Added to S&P500 index effective close of trading on Dec 4th; BMS enters S&P Midcap400 index; +4.0% afterhours
- CHRW: To Acquire Freightquote for $365M in cash; +0.6% afterhours
- MFRM: Reports Q3 $0.70 v $0.70e, R$464.3M v $430Me; -0.2% afterhours

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: China Eastern Airlines 670.HK -2.8%, Air China 753.HK -2.7%, Qantas Airways -3.0% (WTI Crude higher today)
- Financials: China Minsheng Bank 600016.CN +3.8% (Anbang Insurance discloses 5% stake); Greentown China 3900.HK +4.0% (Sunac China, Wharf Holdings may consider joint bid)
- Materials: Newcrest Mining NCM.AU +8.5%, Northern Start Resources NST.AU +13.0% (precious metals trading higher)
- Energy: PetroChina 857.HK +1.5%, CNOOC 883.HK +1.1%, Santos STO.AU +2.0% (WTI Crude higher today)
- Technology: GS Yuasa Corp 6674.JP -1.9% (Boeing battery fires last year likely due to designs)
- Telecom: Chorus Limited CNU.AU +17.4% (NZ Commerce Commission eases price controls); Ten Network TEN.AU -5.9% (likely to reject acquisition offer)

(ZH) The Longest Streak In Stock Market History... Is Over

The Longest Streak In Stock Market History... Is Over
For 29 days - off the Bullard lows - the S&P 500 closed above its 5-day moving average. As MKM's Jonathan Krinsky noted last week, this is the longest streak of sustained equity momentum higher in the history of US markets (surpassing the previous record 27 days from 1928). Today (well techncially Friday's early close) saw that streak come to an abrupt end...

 

 

 

The outcome post a reversal is mixed:

 

>>> Gas Natural: Anuta G. Zucker discloses 8.3% active stake in 13D filing

Gas Natural: Anuta G. Zucker discloses 8.3% active stake in 13D filing

The filing states, "Mrs. Zucker acquired beneficial ownership of the shares for investment purposes. She will continue to review the performance of and prospects for this investment and its investment alternatives. As part of the ongoing review of its investments in the shares, she may explore from time to time a variety of alternatives, including the acquisition of additional securities of the Issuer or the disposition of securities of the Issuer in the open market or in privately negotiated transactions."

>>> US Close Dow-0,29% S&P -0,63% NAsdaq -1,34% Russell 1,49%

Closing Market Summary: Stocks Retreat Amid Global Growth Concerns

The major averages began December on a lower note with relative weakness among cyclical sectors keeping the market under pressure throughout the day. The Nasdaq Composite (-1.3%) and Russell 2000 (-1.6%) paced the slide while the S&P 500 settled lower by 0.7% with eight sectors ending in the red.

Equities faced selling pressure from the opening bell after the overnight session reminded investors about persistent growth concerns around the globe. In Asia, China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI fell to an eight-month low (50.3; expected 50.5) while Japan's debt rating was lowered to A1 from Aa3 at Moody's. Making matters worse, Germany's Manufacturing PMI slid into contraction (49.5; expected 50.0) while the eurozone Manufacturing PMI narrowly avoided the same fate (50.1; expected 50.4).

Accordingly, the concerns about major economies kept cyclical sectors under pressure with five of six growth-sensitive groups ending behind the broader market. The industrial sector (-1.3%) slumped to the bottom of the leaderboard at the start and remained in that spot until the close. Transport stocks were largely responsible for the weakness with the Dow Jones Transportation Average ending lower by 2.7%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, the top-weighted technology space (-1.1%) endured a late-morning plunge in the shares of Apple (AAPL 115.05, -3.88). The largest sector component was down as much 6.3% during the opening hour, but narrowed its loss to 3.3%. Chipmakers fared a bit better than Apple, but worse than the sector as evidenced by a 1.3% decline in the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

The energy sector (+0.8%) was the only cyclical group that finished ahead of the market thanks to a rebound in crude oil. The energy component rallied 4.1% to $69.02/bbl after marking an overnight low at $64.00/bbl. As for the energy sector, the group was underpinned by some of its main components like Chevron (CVX 111.73, +2.86) and ExxonMobil (XOM 92.35, +1.81). The two Dow components gained 2.6% and 2.0%, respectively, to help the price-weighted Dow (-0.3%) finish ahead of the broader market.

Over on the countercyclical side, the utilities sector (+0.2%) spent the bulk of the day in the green while other defensively-oriented sectors ended mixed. Health care (-0.2%) and consumer staples (-0.6%) settled ahead of the S&P 500 while the telecom services sector (-1.0%) lagged.

Treasuries notched their highs shortly after the opening bell and spent the remainder of the day in a steady retreat. The 10-yr yield climbed five basis points to 2.22%.

Today's participation was ahead of average with more than 850 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to the ISM Index, which fell to 58.7 from 59.0 while the consensus expected a decline to 58.0. The Production Index fell to 64.4 from 64.8, which resulted from manufacturers delaying production until a later time. New orders improved as the related index increased to 66.0 from 65.8. Meanwhile, order backlogs increased to 55.0 from 53.0 in October.

Tomorrow, the Construction Spending report for October will be released at 10:00 ET (consensus 0.6%).
  • Nasdaq Composite +13.2% YTD 
  • S&P 500 +11.1% YTD 
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +7.2% YTD 
  • Russell 2000 -0.7% YTD