Asian Market Update: RBA maintains neutral posture as building approvals bounce
***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA OCT BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: 11.4% (14-month high) V 5.0%E; Y/Y: 2.5% V -6.0%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (A$): -12.5B V -13.5BE; NET EXPORTS OF GDP: 0.8% V 0.7%E
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.9 v 114.3 prior
- (JP) JAPAN NOV MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 36.7% V 36.9% PRIOR; MONETARY BASE END OF PERIOD: ¥262.7T V ¥259.5T PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN OCT LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.5% V 0.8%E (8TH CONSECUTIVE INCREASE)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND NOV ANZ COMMODITY PRICE M/M: -1.6% V -0.8% PRIOR (8th consecutive decline)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA NOV CPI M/M: -0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.1%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.7%E
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 flat, S&P/ASX +1.3%, Kospi -0.3%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng +0.3%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 2,052
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Feb gold -1.1% at $1,204, Jan crude oil -0.8% at $68.45/brl, Mar copper -0.7% at $2.88/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,891 tonnes from 10,822 tonnes prior (multi-year high)
- CME Increases margins for Natural Gas (11%), Diesel (15%), and Gasoline (14.6%) futures contracts
- (CN) PBoC won't conduct open market operations (OMO) in today's session (2nd consecutive halt)
- (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.20T in 0.5% (0.5% prior) 10-yr notes; Avg Yield: 0.473% v 0.439% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.01x v 3.50x prior
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes/FX***
- Australia was in focus in today's session, as a sharp u-turn higher in commodities helped S&P/ASX outperform regional indices after it fell to 6-week lows overnight. Trading in AUD was also volatile - the Aussie initially fell about 20pips on the report that Deutsche Bank is now forecasting two 25bp rate cuts in 2015. Note that Credit Suisse swaps are already pricing in about an 80% probability of a 25bp easing over the next 12 months. Australia Building Approvals' strong sequential growth helped reverse the slide, as permits rose at the fastest pace in 14 months. Finally, the RBA policy statement sent AUD up some 50pips to $0.8525 as it largely maintained its neutral stance without caving to slower China economy and falling commodity prices. RBA reiterated policy is appropriately configured, prudent course is a period of stability in rates, inflation would be consistent with target range, and China growth is in line with objectives. The most notable new component of the statement featured a nudge for "lower AUD likely needed to achieve balanced growth", but was not sufficient against rising expectations of a more dovish tilt.
- Shanghai Composite continued to rally, testing above 2,700 mark. Report out of S&P forecasted 2015 China GDP slowing further to about 7%, with a 25% probability that growth would slow to 6%.
- USD/JPY traded in a 25pip range below 118.50, with the overnight Moody's sovereign rating cut of Japan largely dismissed as a catch-up move. The analyst who made the call appeared on CNBC, stating the delay in sales tax hike was the primary reason for the cut as it increased uncertainty over achievability of primary budget balance by the govt's 2020 target. Separately, an S&P report also stated the implementation of a future sales tax hike is uncertain as political dynamic could still change. A Nikkei report speculated the ruling LDP party needs to secure at least 60% of lower house seats in the Dec 14 polls to preserve the stock market rally.
***Equities***
US markets:
- CY: Agrees to merge with Spansion in $4B all-stock transaction; +12.2% afterhours
- RCL: Added to S&P500 index effective close of trading on Dec 4th; BMS enters S&P Midcap400 index; +4.0% afterhours
- CHRW: To Acquire Freightquote for $365M in cash; +0.6% afterhours
- MFRM: Reports Q3 $0.70 v $0.70e, R$464.3M v $430Me; -0.2% afterhours
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: China Eastern Airlines 670.HK -2.8%, Air China 753.HK -2.7%, Qantas Airways -3.0% (WTI Crude higher today)
- Financials: China Minsheng Bank 600016.CN +3.8% (Anbang Insurance discloses 5% stake); Greentown China 3900.HK +4.0% (Sunac China, Wharf Holdings may consider joint bid)
- Materials: Newcrest Mining NCM.AU +8.5%, Northern Start Resources NST.AU +13.0% (precious metals trading higher)
- Energy: PetroChina 857.HK +1.5%, CNOOC 883.HK +1.1%, Santos STO.AU +2.0% (WTI Crude higher today)
- Technology: GS Yuasa Corp 6674.JP -1.9% (Boeing battery fires last year likely due to designs)
- Telecom: Chorus Limited CNU.AU +17.4% (NZ Commerce Commission eases price controls); Ten Network TEN.AU -5.9% (likely to reject acquisition offer)