2014-09-11 09:06:46.328 GMT
By Brian Parkin
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- German economy to gain traction in
fourth-quarter so that recession unlikely, IfW Kiel economic
institute said today in cutting German GDP forecasts.
* German economy to grow 1.4% in 2014, 1.9% in 2015: revision
of June forecast of 2% for 2014, 2.5% in 2015: Kiel citing
geopolitical risks damping exports
* Weaker economic outlook won’t trigger deficits as robust
employment market and income tax receipts “more than
compensate”: German public sector to report composite 0.3%
surplus (or EU10b) in 2014, 0.4% (EU13b) or in 2015
* German ave 2014 inflation seen at 1.1%
* ECB set to keep benchmark rate at 0.05 to end 2015
* NOTE: German 1Q economy grew 0.7%, contracted 0.2% in 2Q
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Apple in talks over pay system in Europe
Banks and credit card organisations are in talks to bring Apple’s mobile payment technology to Europe but there is still uncertainty over the timing. While Apple fans in the UK, France and Germany will be able to buy the new generation iPhone in the next 10 days – at the same time as customers in the US – there is one important feature that they will still be deprived of: Apple Pay, which allows customers to pay using their smartphones. Apple is introducing the technology in the US first, coupled with a promise to overhaul what it calls an "antiquated" payments system. "We are working closely with Apple and with our member banks to bring this new service to market in Europe," said Steve Perry, chief digital officer at Visa Europe. Analysts said it is ironic that Apple’s mobile wallet will not yet be available on the continent that is more advanced when it comes to using contactless payment systems. While mobile phone payment has not yet made a breakthrough on either side of the Atlantic, in Europe there is a widespread circulation of contactless cards that use the same near-field communication technology as Apple Pay. Roughly 100m contactless cards exist in Europe, a fifth of all payment cards. Importantly, there are already numerous retailers and other points of sale that offer contactless payment and that could be used for Apple Pay as well. There are 1.5m such terminals across Europe, a rapid growth since Visa Europe started to roll them out in 2007. Every new installation today is equipped with the technology. The UK is a hotspot, with 350,000 terminals in places ranging from McDonalds restaurants to London buses where customers can make contactless payments. In June, the use of contactless payments more than tripled within a year to reach a total transaction value of £136.4m. While penetration is high, there is still a wariness among consumers to use the technology, which is mostly capped at €30 per day on the continent or £20 in the UK for security reasons. A survey by ING last year showed that 45 per cent of respondents doubted that their money is secure when they use contactless payments, which operate without an additional PIN number within the payment limit. Apple Pay, however, will require a finger print recognition on the iPhone. Analysts said that for Europe’s banks, Apple’s foray into the contactless payment market will be both a threat and opportunity. The disadvantages are that banks will have to pay a cut of the transaction fees to Apple and that their brand will no longer be visible to the customer. But there is an upside as well: "They see an opportunity to have more transactions going away from costly cash and cheque payments," Mr Perry said.
Taxe sur les transactions financières: pourquoi la France n'en parle plus
ENQUETE Alors que l'Allemagne a révélé que cet impôt pourrait lui rapporter au moins 18 milliards, le sujet semble désormais tabou côté français. Pour ne pas dire clos. Les déficits français ne constitueront pas le seul boulet que Pierre Moscovici avait laissé à Bercy et qu’il retrouvera à Bruxelles. Nommé Commissaire à la tête d’un portefeuille comprenant les finances, l’économie mais aussi la fiscalité, il devrait être en charge, à ce titre, de la mise en place de la taxation des transactions financières. Un sujet qu’il partagera avec son collègue britannique Jonathan Hill, commissaire aux services financiers. Deux commissaires européens ne seront pas de trop pour désamorcer ce dossier piégé. Les 11 pays de l’Union européenne qui ont marqué leur intention de mettre en place cette taxe d’ici 2016 peinent à en définir la structure et les conditions précises d’application.
Ne pas polluer le débat budgétaire
Signe des crispations que continue de susciter ce projet: Bercy se refuse à toute communication sur les montants que pourraient rapporter une telle taxe, après la révélation par challenges.fr, lundi 8 septembre, des estimations pour l’Allemagne. Pas question pour le ministre des Finances Michel Sapin de voir ce sujet politiquement sensible s’inviter dans des débats budgétaires en cours, déjà si compliqués… Le pactole serait loin d’être négligeable – et donc susceptible de décupler l’appétit pour cette descendante de la Taxe Tobin au sein de la gauche du PS.
Dans le cas de l’Allemagne, selon l’étude d’impact réalisée par l'institut Copenhagen Economics pour les pouvoirs publics, l'introduction d’une telle taxe européenne sur les transactions financière enrichirait au minimum de 17,6 milliards d'euros les finances publiques outre-Rhin. Le document évoque même un maximum de 28,2 milliards d'euros, dans les meilleures hypothèses. C’est bien au-delà des 2 milliards initialement prévus par Berlin. Et dans ces conditions les revenus de 30 à 35 milliards calculés par Bruxelles dans sa propre étude d’impact pour les 11 pays engagés dans la mise en place de cet projet semblent bien timides.
Impensable que Bercy n'ait rien évalué
Combien rapporterait une telle taxe aux finances publiques françaises ? Mystère… Le ministère des finances affirme qu’il n’a lancé aucune étude d’impact sur ce sujet. "Il est simplement impensable que Bercy n’ait pas concocté sa propre évaluation", estime pourtant un spécialiste du secteur financier. Faute de communication officielle, une extrapolation rapide de l’étude du Copenhagen Economics porterait les revenus potentiels au-delà de la dizaine de milliard d’euros. De quoi faire rêver le Trésor…
Ces montants ne sont toutefois pas encore dans les caisses de l’Etat. Sérieuse, l’étude publiée en Allemagne n’en est pas moins sujette à débat. "Elle est bien plus précise que les calculs qu’avait effectué la Commission européenne", relève Anatole de La Brosse, directeur général adjoint du cabinet Sia partners et spécialiste de l’industrie financière. L’institut Copenhagen Economics se fonde sur une imposition à hauteur de 0,1% des actions et obligations et à 0,01% les produits dérivés.
Elle intègre le principe d’une taxation qui doit toucher à la fois l’achat et la vente de produits financiers. Sont également pris en compte les gardes fous établis dans le projet européen : pour éviter que les transactions échappent à la future taxe du simple fait qu’elles sont réalisées à Londres, les Etats ont décidé que le lieu d’émission de la transaction et le lieu d’implantation de l’établissement à l’origine de l’opération seront pris en compte.
Un surcoût pour le financement de la dette ?
"En revanche, l’étude repose sur certaines hypothèses difficiles à vérifier, modère Anatole de La Brosse. Ainsi, elle intègre, ainsi que le veulent les Etats, les transactions «over the counter (OTC)» c’est-à-dire celles qui ne passent pas par les chambres de compensations. Par définition, les volumes de ces dernières sont difficiles à mesurer… et à taxer".
Autre élément que les banques et opérateurs financiers ne manqueront pas d’attaquer : l’étude publiée en Allemagne assure que la baisse d’activité due à la nouvelle taxe ne serait que très limitée, de l’ordre de quelques centaines de millions d'euros. Au pire, il atteindrait 2 milliards d'euros soit 0,09% du PIB. Loin des risques mis en valeur par exemple dans une étude d’Oliver Wyman et qui juge que les Etats seraient parmi les principales victimes de la taxation qu’ils proposent. Le surcoût pour l’émission de dette souveraine des 11 pays concernés se monterait, selon le cabinet de conseil, à 15-20 milliards d’euros par an.
2014-09-11 06:46:51.669 GMT
(Updates with comment from fund services executive in
third paragraph under subhead Coming Down.)
By Klaus Wille
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Nine out of 10 hedge-fund managers
are overpaid as management fees don’t reflect declining interest
rates and fund returns, according to Unigestion Holding SA,
which invests $2 billion in hedge funds.
The fees, which still make up as much as 2 percent of a
fund’s assets, represent a disproportionately high share of the
total remuneration unrelated to performance, said Nicolas
Rousselet, head of hedge funds at Unigestion. To align managers’
pay more with performance, the fund industry should either
abandon the management fee or combine it with a hurdle rate that
one must achieve before collecting incentive fees, he said.
“The philosophy of the hedge-fund industry, as it should
be, is to remunerate true talent,” Rousselet said in a
telephone interview on Sept. 9. “Fund managers should be
remunerated when they perform. They should not be remunerated
for doing nothing.”
Fees are coming down amid efforts to win mandates in an
industry that traditionally charges about 20 percent on
performance and 2 percent on the total assets. Investors paid an
average 1.69 percent last year, with the share of those who paid
1.5 percent or more at 79 percent, almost unchanged from 2012,
according to a Deutsche Bank AG survey published in February.
Global hedge funds returned 8.6 percent in 2013 and 6.9
percent in 2012, compared with 10 percent to 21 percent in nine
of the 11 years through 2010, according to Singapore-based data
provider Eurekahedge Pte.
BlueCrest Capital
Unigestion, based in Geneva, manages $16 billion, of which
$2 billion is invested in about 60 hedge funds through its funds
of hedge funds, said Rousselet.
Among hedge funds that have taken steps recently to trim
what they charge was BlueCrest Capital Management LLP, which
said earlier this month it cut management fees on its $8.2
billion computer-driven hedge funds to 1.5 percent from 2
percent after assets tumbled in the past year.
“In a low-rate, low-growth environment it is far more
difficult to justify high management fees,” said Keith Pogson,
a Hong Kong-based senior partner for financial services at Ernst
& Young Global Ltd. “Hedge-fund managers should work harder to
justify the fees that they earn.”
Coming Down
Ninety-four percent of Unigestion’s assets come from about
250 institutional clients and 6 percent from high-net-worth
families, according to the firm’s website.
Unigestion’s head of marketing Jean-Francois Hirschel
declined to elaborate how much the firm charges its clients for
selecting hedge funds. He said that the firm’s share is about 10
percent of the clients’ total expense.
“In general, fees have come down over recent years,” said
Celia Choh, Singapore-based head of fund services for Asia at
Wells Fargo Global Fund Services. In Asia, management fees are
now typically between 1 percent and 1.5 percent for early
investors, she said.
Fee negotiations “continue to become a more accepted
practice for investors and managers globally,” according to the
Deutsche Bank survey. Seventy-four percent of respondents said
they negotiate fees, up from 51 percent two years earlier.
“We are negotiating with hedge-fund managers,” Rousselet
said, adding that he doesn’t see management fees trending down.
“But if you buy a top manager, the bargaining power is not in
your hands.”
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2014-09-11 06:35:06.32 GMT
By Allison Connolly
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Pfizer won’t be “held hostage” by
Astra and is considering other types of targets, including pure-
play generic companies, Bernstein says in note following call
with Pfizer management, including CEO Ian Read.
* Generics companies of interest would be those that make
biosimilars and hard-to-make generics
* Also interested in consumer health
* Says managers suggested Astra doesn’t have a highly unique,
must-have collection of pipeline products
* Says co. has put high priority on tax inversion and believes
the “inversion window” is still open
* Says co. emphasized “substantial possibility” that its
established products division (GEP) may be better as a
separate corporation; buying Astra would’ve helped GEP
achieve a stronger outlook with more sustainable growth
* Rates Pfizer outperform, PT $33; Astra market-perform, PT
4,311p
* NOTE: Sept. 3, AstraZeneca Bullish Options Gain on Bets of
Pfizer Comeback Bid
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Gaurav Panchal