Asian Market Update: New Zealand trade deficit smaller than feared, even as Fonterra cuts payout forecast again
***Economic Data*** - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): -472M (2nd consecutive trade deficit) V -1.1BE - (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG SKILLED VACANCIES M/M: 1.1% V 1.4% PRIOR (4th consecutive increase) - (AU) AUSTRALIA JUL CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX M/M: 0.5% (3rd consecutive increase) V 0.2% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN SEPT PRELIM MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.7 V 52.2 PRIOR (4th consecutive month of expansion) - (VN) Vietnam Sept Consumer Price Index (CPI) Y/Y: 3.6% v 4.3% prior
***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.3%, S&P/ASX -0.7%, Kospi flat, Shanghai Composite +0.2%, Hang Seng +0.1%, Dec S&P500 +0.1% at 1,974
***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Dec gold flat at $1,222, Nov crude oil flat at $91.56/brl, Dec copper +0.3% at $3.03/lb - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -6.5M (largest draw since May 20th) v +0.5Me, GASOLINE: +0.09M v -0.5Me, DISTILLATE: +3.0M v +0.5Me - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 1.2 tonnes to 773.5 tonnes; Lowest level since Dec 2008, 3rd consecutive decline - SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,663 tonnes from 10,589 tonnes prior (highest since Apr 2013) - update - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥300B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥200B in 3-5yr JGB, ¥400B in 5-10yr JGB - (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$600M in 4.75% 2027 bonds; Avg yield: 3.7698%; Bid-to-cover: 3.93x - USD/BRL: (BR) Brazil Central Bank increasing currency intervention; To offer up to 15K swap contracts vs 6K prior - financial press - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1462 v 6.1470 prior setting (2nd consecutive firmer Yuan setting)
***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - New Zealand dodged expectations for a 1-year high trade deficit above NZ$1B. Terms of trade still marked their 2nd consecutive monthly shortfall, but the figure was nowhere as bad as feared, with exports reaching NZ$3.5B v NZ$3.2Be and imports missing at NZ$4.0B v NZ$4.5Be. The beat offered a welcome relief to the Kiwi dollar, which hit a 1-year low near $0.8040 after dairy co-op Fonterra cut its FY14/15 payout to NZ$5.30/kg from NZ$6.00/kg. Fonterra also reported FY14 Net NZ$179M v NZ$736M y/y on Rev NZ$22.3B v NZ$18.6B y/y, and raised its FY15 dividend forecast to NZ$0.25-0.35/shr from NZ$0.20-0.25 prior forecast. Recall Fonterra has also cut its payout forecast due to oversupply as recently as late July. Following the trade figures, NZD/USD reversed that post Fonterra-drop to as high as $0.8085.
- Japan PM Abe noted he would prefer some caution related to the impact of recent Yen weakness on local economies. Markets briefly interpreted that as an expression of discomfort related to the side-effects of weak-JPY policy pursued by the BOJ, sending USD/JPY down about 30pips below ¥108.50. Also of note in Japan, prelim Sept Markit PMI showed its 4th month of expansion, with output increasing at faster rate and Output Prices reversing direction to the upside.
- China markets remain supported by chatter of policymakers' easing of housing curbs. Early-session reports noted cities of Qingdao, Fuzhou, Suzhou, Hangzhou, and Nanjing had reportedly eased their criteria for "first mortgage" home purchase classification to buyers with no mortgage outstanding and with no house registered under their names. Wuhan was also listed as a city stimulating housing demand by fully removing home purchasing curbs effective Sept 24th. Separately, Goldman Sachs cut its China 2015 GDP forecast to 7.1% from 7.6% prior, forecasting policymakers would lower their 2015 target to 7.0% from 7.5% in 2014. CPI projections were also downgraded for 2014 and 2015 to 2.2% and 2.5% respectively.
- Australia Bureau of Resources (BREE) lowered its iron ore price projections to $94/ton for both 2014 and 2015 vs $105/ton and $97/ton respective forecasts made in June. BREE also noted export earnings growth would slow to an annual 7% from the 12% expected this year. BREE saw continued growth in volumes helping offset lower commodity prices, and also mentioned the positive impact of lower AUD. RBA released its semi-annual Financial Stability Review, hinting it would consider macro-prudential measures to curb growing property prices in the current low-rate environment. RBA said it was in talks with regulators over additional house lending clamps, warning lending is becoming unbalanced and could pose a risk to the financial system.
***Equities*** US markets: - BBBY: Reports Q2 $1.17 v $1.14e, R$2.95B v $2.90Be; Guides Q3 Rev +2.8-3.7% y/y v +4%e (implies R$2.95-2.98B v $2.98Be); SSS +2-3% - conf call; +7.8% afterhours - ZSPH: Announces positive top-line results from HARMONIZE (ZS004); +5.1% afterhours - VZ: Said to hire TAP Advisors for sale/lease of up to 12K towers; May raise $6B based on previous AT&T sale - financial press; flat afterhours - AIR: Reports Q1 $0.36 v $0.41e, R$469M v $496Me; Cuts FY14 guidance; -3.5% afterhours - ATOS: Provides Regulatory and Commercial Update on Its ForeCYTE Breast Aspirator and Its FullCYTE Breast Aspirator; -52.8% afterhours - ECTE: Trading halted; Suspends operations to conserve liquidity; -69.8% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Daiei 8263.JP +16.5%, Aeon 8267.JP -2.4% (press speculation on Aeon's restructuring); Starbucks Coffee Japan 2712.JP +4.5% (Starbucks to purchase remaining stake) - Financials: China Vanke 2202.HK +1.6% (shareholder raises stake) - Materials: Nuplex Industries NPX.NZ +6.0% (confirms plan to sell assets) - Industrials: Amada 6113.JP +3.4% (press speculation on H1 results); Obayashi Corp 1802.JP +2.1% (project plans)
After Hours Summary: BBBY +7.5%, GTI -12.6%, AIR -3.5% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: BBBY +7.5%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: LPCN +15.9% (co to host a conference call and webcast tomorrow, September 24, 2014 at 8:45 a.m. Eastern time to discuss top-line results from its Study of Oral Androgen Replacement pivotal Phase 3 clinical study), ZSPH +5.1% (announced positive top-line results from HARMONIZE (ZS004), a second Phase 3 clinical trial of ZS-9 in patients with Hyperkalemia), LEI +0.5% (Condagua, LLC disclosed ~13% active stake in 13D filing; urges exploration of strategic alternatives)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: GTI -12.6%, AIR -3.5%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ATOS -54.5% (announced that the FDA has issued a determination that the ForeCYTE Breast Aspirator is "not substantially equivalent" to its predicate device; not cleared for marketing in U.S.), MMLP -4.6% (commenced public offering of 3 mln common units under its existing shelf registration statement), GLOP -3.6% (announced public offering of 4.5 mln common units), SCTY -2.3% (announced launch of a $500 mln convertible senior notes offering), EVHC -2.2% (announced sale of 17,500,000 shares of stock by selling stockholders), LAND -2.0% (announced common stock offering of 1.15 mln shares), ALCS -2.0% (MFP Partners liquidated stake in the company)
Closing Market Summary: S&P 500 Logs Third Consecutive Loss
The stock market finished the Tuesday session on the defensive after spending the entire day in a steady retreat. The S&P 500 (-0.6%) posted its third consecutive decline, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.9%) slipped behind the broader market during afternoon action.
Equity indices were pressured from the start following some overnight developments that weighed on sentiment. The market tried to overcome the early weakness, but could not stage a sustained rebound, which resulted in follow-through selling in the afternoon.
Mixed PMI data from the eurozone combined with an announcement from the U.S. Treasury concerning tax inversion deals factored into the cautious action. Under a new notice released by the Treasury Department, an inverted company is subject to potential adverse tax consequences if, after the transaction: (1) less than 25% of the new multinational entity's business activity is in the home country of the new foreign parent, and (2) the shareholders of the old US parent end up owning at least 60% of the shares of the new foreign parent. The same tax treatment would still apply if 80% or more of the new foreign parent is owned by the US parent company's shareholders.
Fittingly, the news caused early weakness in the health care sector (-0.6%), which has been at the center of recent M&A deals. The sector was able to cut its early loss in half, while Dow component Pfizer (PFE 30.05, -0.13) narrowed its loss to 0.4% by the close. The stock received an afternoon boost after Bloomberg reported the company has approached Actavis (ACT 240.87, +5.25) about a potential acquisition.
Elsewhere among influential sectors, financials (-0.7%) and technology (-0.2%) displayed relative strength at the start, but only the tech sector was able to end near its flat line. The top-weighted component, Apple (AAPL 102.64, +1.58), did some heavy lifting, while other influential names like Facebook (FB 78.29, +1.49) and Google (GOOGL 591.18, -6.09) ended mixed.
Outside of technology, the energy sector (-0.3%) was the only other cyclical outperformer, while crude oil rose 0.7% to $91.55/bbl. The other commodity-related sector—materials (-0.6%)—ended in line with the market.
Also of note, the industrial sector (-0.8%) struggled amid weakness in defense and transport stocks. The PHLX Defense Index lost 1.2% and the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.8%.
The daylong retreat contributed to increased demand for volatility protection that sent the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.87, +1.18) to its highest level in five weeks.
Treasuries ended on their highs with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.53%.
Today's participation was ahead of recent averages with roughly 700 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data was limited to the July Housing Price Index from the FHFA, which rose 0.1% to follow a revised increase of 0.3% (from 0.4%) observed during the prior month.
Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET, while New Home Sales for August (consensus 435K) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.
* Nasdaq Composite +8.0% YTD * S&P 500 +7.3% YTD * Dow Jones Industrial Average +2.9% YTD * Russell 2000 -3.8% YTD
Pfizer Held Takeover Talks With Actavis Talks Ended Last Week After Actavis Decided Against a Deal
Pfizer's talks with Actavis marked the drug company's second attempt this year to pursue an acquisition that would have lowered its U.S. taxes Timothy A. Clary/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images Pfizer Inc. PFE -0.43% explored a potential tax-lowering takeover of rival Actavis PLC in recent weeks, but talks between the two pharmaceutical companies have ended, according to a person familiar with the matter.
New York-based Pfizer approached Actavis proposing a cash-and-stock tie-up, according to the person. The talks ended last week after Actavis decided against a deal, the person said. It is unclear why. Actavis has a market value of about $60 billion.
News of the talks is the latest twist in a dramatic period for takeovers in the health-care industry, many of them driven by tax considerations. The Actavis talks marked the second attempt this year by Pfizer to pursue an acquisition that would have lowered its U.S. taxes: Earlier this year, Pfizer made an unsuccessful $120 billion offer for British rival AstraZeneca AZN.LN -3.57% PLC.
Actavis last year did its own tax-lowering deal, known as an inversion, by buying Warner Chilcott PLC for $5 billion. It then bulked up further this year by taking over Forest Laboratories Inc. in a $25 billion deal.
By buying Actavis, Pfizer could have assumed the company's Irish domicile and in the process become more tax-efficient.
Pfizer would have used its cash held overseas to help pay for the deal, the person said. The talks between Pfizer and Actavis fell apart amid resistance to inversions in Washington, but before the Treasury Department on Monday announced rules to deter them, which could discourage either side from resuming discussions.
At the time of the Pfizer discussions, Actavis was pursuing a takeover of Allergan Inc., AGN +1.84% an approach that was also rebuffed, The Wall Street Journal reported Monday.
Botox maker Allergan, trying to fight off a $53 billion hostile offer from Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc., VRX.T -0.02% is closing in on a takeover of Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. SLXP +5.84% , a deal that would make it more difficult and complicated for Valeant to succeed in the effort.
Others companies in the industry, including AbbVie Inc. ABBV -1.96% and Mylan Inc., MYL +0.17% have signed inversions of their own. Meanwhile, others like Merck & Co. and Novartis AG NOVN.VX -0.57% have struck deals to reshape their portfolios.
Pfizer, maker of drugs like the cholesterol fighter Lipitor and painkiller Celebrex, looked at Actavis as a potential alternative, the person said. In addition to potential tax savings, Actavis offered Pfizer the chance to obtain some drugs like fast-growing bowel treatment Linzess; though like Pfizer, Actavis is dealing with some aging big sellers.
A combination of the two companies would have created a behemoth in the industry with a market value of more than $250 billion.
Bloomberg earlier reported that Pfizer had approached Actavis.
In the first half of this year, pharmaceutical companies agreed to $87 billion in merger transactions, $8 billion more than in all of last year, according to industry researcher EvaluatePharma. Many companies have been using deals either to narrow their focus to markets they think they can lead, or to save on taxes and use their cash more efficiently.
* WLT Oct 3.5 calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock +7% following interest payment news and peer BTU guidance (volume: 3060, open int: 70, implied vol: ~108%, prev day implied vol: 99%) -- we noted unusual put activity earlier this month (see 9/11 14:01 OPTNX). Co is expected to report earnings late October. * DRYS Oct 3 calls (volume: 4.1K, open int: 1.3K, implied vol: ~50%, prev day implied vol: 47%) -- co is expected to report earnings early November. * RAX Oct 32 calls are seeing interest with continued weakness in the underlying stock (volume: 4270, open int: 1080, implied vol: ~40%, prev day implied vol: 38%) -- co ended Formal Evaluation of M&A Transactions last week (stock has since been under considerable pressure). * AER Jan15 47.5 calls (volume: 5360, open int: 190, implied vol: ~28%, prev day implied vol: 26%) -- one 5K transaction traded on the offer. Co is scheduled to present next week on Sept 29 at RBC conference and expected to report earnings early November.
Notable Call Activity following M&A speculation:
* GOGO calls are seeing interest with the underlying stock +2% on renewed Verizon takeover rumor. More than 6.2K total calls have traded vs 160 puts with most notable volume in the Oct 19/20 calls. GOGO is expected to report earnings early November. * VOD is seeing heavy call buying as renewed AT&T M&A speculation circulates (20K+ total calls have traded vs 1.4K puts). VOD reports earnings November 11 before the open.
Bearish Put Activity:
* DF Oct 13 puts (volume: 6730, open int: 0, implied vol: ~42%, prev day implied vol: 36%) -- co is expected to report earnings mid-November.
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Pfizer Said to Have Approached Actavis About Possible Takeover 2014-09-23 18:12:22.519 GMT
By Jeremy R. Cooke Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Pfizer has approached Actavis to express its interest in an acquisition, people with knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg’s Manuel Baigorri, David Welch and Matthew Campbell. * PFE, ACT aren’t currently in formal talks and PFE hasn’t made an offer, the people said * NOTE: Pfizer continues to explore ways to cut its tax rate and gain a new product pipeline * Although AstraZeneca rebuffed its approach, PFE still considering pursuing that deal as well as other options, the people said * PFE determined any such deal needs to be friendly, unlike the unsolicited offer made to Astra * PFE, ACT reps declined to comment * NOTE: Actavis Would Be Willing Seller if Offer Compelling, DealReporter Said (Sept. 19); Actavis Would Make Sense as M&A Target for Pfizer: Bernstein (Sept. 15) Link to full story: NSN NCD96X6TTDSS<GO>
For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeremy R. Cooke in Boston at +1-617-210-4654 or jcooke8@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Larry DiTore at +1-212-617-1603 or lditore@bloomberg.net
2014-09-23 16:29:17.311 GMT
By Joshua Fineman
Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Volume of tax-inversion deals
likely to increase in coming months as political rhetoric
against combos increase in U.S., UK, Panmure analyst Simon
French said in note earlier.
* Pending inversion deals likely to be “subverted, but not
destroyed”
* Remain bullish, inversion opportunites “have not
vanished,” though must adapt to more “hostile” political
environment
* NOTE: Earlier, Anti-Inversion Rules Won’t Stop Pending
Deals: Robert Willens; Inversions Still Possible Despite
Treasury Notice: Cadwalader
* NOTE: INVERSION WRAP: Earnings Stripping Guide, Tax Treaty
Action Next
* Eight Pending M&A Inversions Exposed to Treasury Tax
Limits: BI
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>
To contact the reporter on this story:
Joshua Fineman in New York at +1-212-617-8953 or
jfineman@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Arie Shapira at +1-212-617-1488 or
ashapira3@bloomberg.net