Approves $1.5B buyback program (7.2% of market cap)
EU officials are reportedly looking at a range of options for improving relations with Russia - paper - Russia sanctions could be lifted if it fully implements the Minsk agreement.
*SCHAEUBLE SAYS `WILL DO EVERYTHING TO KEEP EUROPE STABLE'
find attached the Credit Suisse Report on Mota from the 9th of Dec & from Nov 2014 on spin off of African unit of MOT ENGIL Africa (MEAFR NA)
EGL PL
MEAFR NA
From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LLP) At: Jan 13 2015 12:10:36
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LLP)
Subject: Fwd:>>> Mota- Engil - +10% on Santander initiation - €2.62 target €4.60 +77%
Subject: Fwd:>>> Mota- Engil - +10% on Santander initiation - €2.62 target €4.60 +77%
--> Interesting Report, I stronlgly Believe this stock is a strong Buy, have a look to this report attached. Big exposure to the Africa...Infrastructure...the stock is not very well covered with only Credit Suisse Covering, i will send you the report in the new few minutes.have a lookLaurentMota Engil - Ready for the new Emerging Markets* We reinitiate coverage of Mota-Engil with a Buy rating.Mota is among the few Engineering and Construction (E&C) players with a deep know-how and successful track record in the next emerging market: Sub-Saharan Africa (67% of 2013 EBITDA). This should translate into several growth opportunities given the region’s infrastructure deficit: construction spending is expected to post a 9% 2008-20E CAGR and Mota should grow by a 7.5% 2013-18E CAGR. Mota holds a 80% stake in its listed African subsidiary –Mota-Engil Africa (MEAFR).* But Mota is not only Africa, it is also LatAm (9% of EBITDA) and Europe (mainly Portugal and Poland).With recent awards LatAm (mostly Mexico) has gained significant weight in the backlog (46% of the total). Mota’s backlog reached an historical peak in 9M14 of €4.4bn and the company repeated a maximum orderbook measured in months (22). Mota’s backlog increased by 19% YoY in 9M14, indicating solid growth for 2015E.* Despite backlog growth, we expect 2015E to be a tough year:+6% and +1% sales and EBITDA growth respectively. Ourcautious stance is based on a deceleration in MEAFR due to weaker activity in Angola. Angola is MEAFR’s main sales contributor (c16% of the backlog) and should face a sharp slowdown as the fall in crude oil prices reduces infrastructure investment (oil rents account for 41%-43% of GDP).* Mota’s share price has collapsed (-60%) since it reached its 5-year peak of €6.0/sh in July 2014. This performance was mostly explained by: (1) the cancellation of the MEAFR IPO (it is now listed but with only a 6% free-float) due to the bankruptcy of BES, leading to foreign investors fleeing from Portuguese stocks; (2) poor cash-flow generation in 9M14 due to strong investment in Working Capital; and (3) the recent plunge in oil prices.* We believe that the current share price already partly discounts a recession in Angola and see the stock as deeplyundervalued when considering our YE15 TP of €4.60/sh and the implicit reference price for Mota, ie, €3.58/sh, when using the MEAFR’s current stock price.
JDS Uniphase: Sandell releases letter to the Board; reiterates the need for JDSU to pursue further strategic actions to maximize shareholder value
--> stock slightly up pre-market
GT -2.8% pre market
ML trade down 60bps on the news and just back on level
CON didn't really moved
NRE1V traded down 30bps and back on level now
- Impact on Q4 earnings to be $0.15-0.20/shr, lower than prior expectations
- Expect free cash flow to be slightly better than anticipated at time of Q3 call; capital allocation plan remains on track
- In EMEA region, industry negatively impacted by warmer than expected winter that lasted through the quarter; one of the warmest on record
- Reiterates FY15 SOI +10-15% y/y, global volume +1-2% y/y, capex $1.2B, FX headwinds in FY15 to be similar to FY14
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ECOM -37.1%, BGFV -9.6%, WWW -6.7%, LMNR -4.6%, PHG -1.8%, DAN -1%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: OXY -2%, SDRL -1.4%, RIG -1.4%, RIG -1.3%, BAS -1.3%, NOV -1.2%, SLB -1.1%, HAL -1.1%, EXH -0.8%.
Other news: ANW -10.2% (announced proposed offering of $40 mln of additional 4.00% convertible senior notes due 2018), ATRS -7.7% (received written recommendations from the FDA related to its clinical development program for QuickShot Testosterone), AUY -5.1% (announces C$260.2 mln equity financing; also dg at HSBC), AIV -2.3% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 8.2 mln shares of its common stock), BRX -2.3% (announced offering of 17.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), SFY -2.2% (announces a revised 2015 capital budget range of $100-125 mln; Eagle Ford wells update), HPP -2.1% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 9.5 mln shares of common stock), BURL -1.2% (announced offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders)
Analyst comments: JUNO -4.6% (initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $52), SNN -2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), MOS -1.5% (downgraded to Sector Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC), CUZ -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), CE -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), FE -0.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ED -0.6% (downgraded to Sell at Evercore ISI), COST -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ECOM -37.1%, BGFV -9.6%, WWW -6.7%, LMNR -4.6%, PHG -1.8%, DAN -1%
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: OXY -2%, SDRL -1.4%, RIG -1.4%, RIG -1.3%, BAS -1.3%, NOV -1.2%, SLB -1.1%, HAL -1.1%, EXH -0.8%.
Other news: ANW -10.2% (announced proposed offering of $40 mln of additional 4.00% convertible senior notes due 2018), ATRS -7.7% (received written recommendations from the FDA related to its clinical development program for QuickShot Testosterone), AUY -5.1% (announces C$260.2 mln equity financing; also dg at HSBC), AIV -2.3% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 8.2 mln shares of its common stock), BRX -2.3% (announced offering of 17.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders), SFY -2.2% (announces a revised 2015 capital budget range of $100-125 mln; Eagle Ford wells update), HPP -2.1% (announced it has commenced a public offering of 9.5 mln shares of common stock), BURL -1.2% (announced offering of 12.5 mln shares of common stock by selling stockholders)
Analyst comments: JUNO -4.6% (initiated with a Neutral at Goldman; tgt $52), SNN -2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), MOS -1.5% (downgraded to Sector Underperform from Sector Perform at CIBC), CUZ -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), CE -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), FE -0.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ED -0.6% (downgraded to Sell at Evercore ISI), COST -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BEBE +18.5%, PCYC +12.2%, HEAR +11.9%, ELX +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, CTIC +9.1%, SNX +5.7%, ZIXI +5.4%, HXL +4.1%, KGC +2.3%, AA +1.4%, AET +0.5%
Select Brazil related names showing strength: GOL +4.4%, GGB +3.9%, ABGB +3.7%, SID +3.5%, EBR +2.9%, ITUB +2.3%, VALE +2%, BSBR +1.9%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AU +3.5%, AEM +2.7%, SLV +2.4%, GDX +1.5%, SLW +1.3%, ABX +1.3%, GG +0.9%
Other news: NLST +53.4% (Federal Court update; advanced trial date up 4 mos), BVX +19% (announced all J-Plasma disposable hand pieces as well as the Bovie Ultimate generator have received CE Mark approval), GEVO +18.7% (co has launched sales of renewable isobutanol to Brenntag Canada), MNGA +13.5% (cont momentum higher following yday's advance), RSH +10.3% (potential $500 mln loan from Salus Capital), TOPS +6% (co entered into a sale and leaseback agreement for two of its vessels: the M/T StenaWeco Energy and the M/T StenaWeco Evolution), PBR +4.4% (announces that total oil and natural gas production in December reached an average of 2.863 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing the best result ever achieved in the history of the co), HXL +4.1% (co initiated a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend; co also provided guidance), AG +4% (production guidance update), RLH +3.7% (co entered into an agreement to sell its hotel in Bellevue, Wash. for $35.4 mln to an affiliate of Wig Properties), ARIA +3.2% (announces key strategic objectives for 2015 ), BLCM +3.1% (Baker Bros. Advisors disclosed 16.3% passive stake in 13G filing), AKS +2.4% (in symp with AA earnings)
Analyst comments: BBY +3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), SONC +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SPWR +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), FCAU +1.9% (resumed with an Overweight at Barclays), AMZN +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), ALK +1.4% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank), AAPL +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $130 from $110), TKMR +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Leerink Partners), SWKS +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BEBE +18.5%, PCYC +12.2%, HEAR +11.9%, ELX +11.9%, XENT +10.9%, CTIC +9.1%, SNX +5.7%, ZIXI +5.4%, HXL +4.1%, KGC +2.3%, AA +1.4%, AET +0.5%
Select Brazil related names showing strength: GOL +4.4%, GGB +3.9%, ABGB +3.7%, SID +3.5%, EBR +2.9%, ITUB +2.3%, VALE +2%, BSBR +1.9%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: AU +3.5%, AEM +2.7%, SLV +2.4%, GDX +1.5%, SLW +1.3%, ABX +1.3%, GG +0.9%
Other news: NLST +53.4% (Federal Court update; advanced trial date up 4 mos), BVX +19% (announced all J-Plasma disposable hand pieces as well as the Bovie Ultimate generator have received CE Mark approval), GEVO +18.7% (co has launched sales of renewable isobutanol to Brenntag Canada), MNGA +13.5% (cont momentum higher following yday's advance), RSH +10.3% (potential $500 mln loan from Salus Capital), TOPS +6% (co entered into a sale and leaseback agreement for two of its vessels: the M/T StenaWeco Energy and the M/T StenaWeco Evolution), PBR +4.4% (announces that total oil and natural gas production in December reached an average of 2.863 mln barrels of oil equivalent per day, representing the best result ever achieved in the history of the co), HXL +4.1% (co initiated a $0.10 per share quarterly dividend; co also provided guidance), AG +4% (production guidance update), RLH +3.7% (co entered into an agreement to sell its hotel in Bellevue, Wash. for $35.4 mln to an affiliate of Wig Properties), ARIA +3.2% (announces key strategic objectives for 2015 ), BLCM +3.1% (Baker Bros. Advisors disclosed 16.3% passive stake in 13G filing), AKS +2.4% (in symp with AA earnings)
Analyst comments: BBY +3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), SONC +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), SPWR +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), FCAU +1.9% (resumed with an Overweight at Barclays), AMZN +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), ALK +1.4% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Deutsche Bank), AAPL +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $130 from $110), TKMR +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Leerink Partners), SWKS +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
Let me know if you want the full report...but with Oil trading lower, thought will be interersting to have a view on covenants & Debt issue....M&A will not come if we don't see a reverse in the trend of oil ...I personally think that we are not very far from lows but that on an acceleration we can see some much lower levels...the $43 area is a zone where I will start to play oil.
We need few weeks of rebound to see more noise about less cut in capex etc etc...
We test a variety of scenarios from LT Brent of USD90/bbl down to USD50/bbl; we find that at low oil prices, every company with covenants (AFR, LUPE, MAU, PMO, TLW) is likely to breach them. However, these companies have some options that could help them weather the storm – Afren (down to U/P) is most exposed at USD50/bbl over 2015-17. We believe TLW could meet its covenants at a flat USD50/bbl oil price scenario until 2017 without cutting its dividend. The stocks most levered to oil prices are PMO & AFR; the least are Seplat, SOCO and Cairn.
* Nav Sensitivity to Oil Prices
* M&A in the Sector
M&A candidates? Could remain muted for now
All of the stocks trade below asset value and therefore all are starting to screen as M&A candidates – however, the last oil price crash saw deals dry up for a few quarters until the oil price started to recover. With oil price collapsing, majors could seek to acquire material onshore shale exposure first rather than European E&P. Further, we believe that majors will be looking attentively at the upcoming Mexico licensing round
which offers tracts of acreage on trend with the US side of the Eagle Ford. Nevertheless, we believe that at these levels, the main driver will be low development costs and material volumes. Here we see Africa Oil and Tullow screening well on both volumes and valuation.
From the 17th of Dec. Prices are much lower now for few names...