Antitrust Issues of Potential SABMiller - AB InBev Deal
Summary
The beer industry’s consolidation has accelerated over the past few years, with the big four - AB InBev (BUD:US), SABMiller (SAB:LN), Heineken (HEIA:NA) and Carlsberg (CARLB:DC) – now producing well over half of all beers and lagers sold globally.
SAB’s advances have recently been rejected by HEIA, leaving SAB vulnerable to a takeover by BUD. A merger between the
world's two biggest brewers would put them in control of about a third of global beer supply and almost half of global beer profits.
Although it sounds like a tall order, such a deal is doable within a timeframe of about a year.
The two companies would complete each other in many regions. SAB dominates in a number of African countries where BUDhas almost no presence, and also has strong market position in Australia through Foster's, whereas BUD is a minor player.
Moreover, SAB has quasi-monopolies in Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador, where BUD has been trying to break in. On the other
hand, BUD is a market leader in Brazil, as well as in Mexico through Modelo, and in Canada through Labatt.
SAB and BUD overlap in the U.S. and China, the two most important beer markets in the world. This is where antitrust issues are likely to arise.
In the U.S., BUD is the largest beer manufacturer, accounting for a 47% share of total volume sales in 2013. MillerCoors is
second with about 25% of the U.S. market. MillerCoors is 58% owned by SAB and 42% by Molson Coors (TAP:US). SAB would
probably have to exit the joint venture in order for a merger with BUD to be approved in the U.S.
In China, a SAB-BUD merger would combine the number one and number three players. SAB is in a joint venture with
government-backed China Resources Enterprise in the brewer of Snow Beer, the number one selling beer in the world and the most popular brand in China. China Resources Snow Breweries had a beer volume share of 22% in 2012, while BUD disclosed a 13.4% market share. BUD might have to dispose of or end its partnerships with a number of smaller local brewers in order to obtain Chinese antitrust clearance.
Despite the substantial regulatory risk, we would ascribe an ePOD© of 85% if an agreed bid did materialize.