Turkey Votes Sunday in High-Stakes Local Election
Retaining control of Istanbul would bolster the opposition party as it renews efforts to loosen Erdogan’s grip on power
ISTANBUL—Turks are voting in an election on Sunday that will decide whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling party will retake control of Istanbul, the country’s largest city and a global center of culture and trade, from the main opposition party.
The mayoral election has far-reaching consequences for Turkey and for Erdogan, who has amassed enormous power over more than 20 years as the country’s top leader. Istanbul’s current mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, is a leading critic of Erdogan and is seen as a potential presidential candidate.
If Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish initials AKP, retakes control of the city, it would deal a crushing blow to Turkey’s opposition, which failed to unseat Erdogan in a close-fought presidential election last year. Retaining control of the city, on the other hand, would bolster the opposition as it looks to renew its efforts to loosen Erdogan’s grip on power. Results are expected Sunday night.
The Istanbul mayoral race is the most important of a series of local elections taking place throughout Turkey’s 81 provinces on Sunday. Other major cities held by the opposition, such as Ankara and Izmir, are seen as being more difficult for the AKP to reclaim.
Istanbul is a strategic and symbolic prize for both sides. Sitting astride the Bosporus that separates Europe and Asia, the city with its 16 million people is the cultural and economic heart of Turkey, accounting for 30% of the country’s total GDP. Erdogan himself is a former mayor of the city who grew up in one of its working-class neighborhoods.
“This election is going to shape the future of the opposition in terms of leadership,” said Evren Balta, a political scientist at Istanbul’s Ozyegin University. “There are many economic and symbolic advantages for the opposition to keeping hold of Istanbul.”
The election is an opportunity for Erdogan to roll back one of his opponents’ most important gains of the past two decades. Imamoglu swept to power in an election in 2019 that was seen as a setback for the Turkish leader. Turkish authorities initially canceled the results of that election, triggering a revote that Imamoglu also won.
Imamoglu has since emerged as one of Erdogan’s most effective critics. Like Erdogan, he is a charismatic politician from a family from Turkey’s Black Sea region. A self-described social democrat, his campaign has centered on expanded social services like kindergartens and benefits for new mothers.
An Istanbul court in 2022 convicted Imamoglu on charges of insulting public officials after he referred in an interview to government officials who nullified the initial result of the 2019 election as “fools.” The mayor has rejected the charge as an attempt to silence opposition to the government.
Running against him is Murat Kurum, a former environment minister in Erdogan’s cabinet and a recently elected member of parliament. His campaign has promised to expand transportation in the city and overhaul the urban environment to prepare for earthquakes—a pledge also made by Imamoglu.
The 53-year-old mayor, campaigning in a little-known working class neighborhood called Yavuztürk on Istanbul’s Asian side earlier this past week, climbed on top of his campaign bus to speak to a crowd of supporters at an intersection between a supermarket and blocks of apartment buildings. On a nearby hillside, the dome and six minarets of Turkey’s largest mosque, built under Erdogan’s rule and inaugurated in 2019, could be seen.
“They want to take back Istanbul, from who? From the people!” he said, eliciting cheers from the crowd. Without naming Erdogan, he spoke of the president and other government officials who campaigned for his opponent, and said, “Send them back to Ankara!”
Like many in Turkey, Imamoglu’s supporters see the race in terms of its implications for Turkey’s national politics. Chief among their concerns is the Turkish economy, which has plunged into crisis in recent years.
“I think the economy is going really badly, and I think he can fix it because he can go from being mayor to being president,” said Onur Yuksel, a 46-year-old communications consultant who stood in the cold waiting for Imamoglu to speak. “I believe in him,” he said.
Erdogan held his own rally in support of his chosen candidate on March 24, assembling tens of thousands of people at a disused airport and urging supporters to vote in a speech that also pointed to the vote’s national significance.
“This city is now condemned to the oppression of the CHP,” he said, referring to the opposition party. “On March 31st, we have to save it.”
Also weighing on voters’ minds is the risk of earthquakes after Turkey suffered a catastrophic double earthquake last year that killed more than 50,000 people and leveled parts of southern Turkey and northwestern Syria. Residents fear that it is only a matter of time before a similar earthquake shakes Istanbul, which sits near a fault line. Both candidates have promised to prepare the city, which also suffered an earthquake in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people.
“Istanbul’s biggest problem is earthquakes. The person who will be the architect of the renewal of all these buildings is Murat Kurum,” said Hamdi Buyukbahceci, 78 years old, referring to the AKP candidate’s background as an official in the state housing authority.