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Whispers about world No. 3 Jon Rahm joining the Saudi-backed LIV Golf have become the talk of the sport—ahead of a quickly approaching deadline for a deal with the PGA Tour

Jordan Spieth is a three-time major champion, a newly minted member of the PGA Tour’s board and just spent his weekend on the course with many of the world’s top players. But even he seemed to be totally in the dark about the potential bombshell gripping the world of golf.

Is Jon Rahm about to bolt from the PGA Tour for the Saudi-backed LIV Golf?

“I know he’s maybe weighing some decisions, maybe not,” Spieth said. “I really don’t know, so I don’t want to insult him and say he’s weighing decisions if he already knows he’s not or he is.”

One thing Spieth clearly understood was the stakes involved in any move by the world’s No. 3-ranked golfer. “Jon Rahm,” he said, “is one of the biggest assets that we have on the PGA Tour.”

Speculation over the future of a notoriously temperamental Spaniard and Ryder Cup hero is the subject of feverish gossip across two circuits because it’s really speculation about the future of the entire sport: LIV would be stealing one of the biggest global golf stars just ahead of a rapidly approaching Dec. 31 deadline for its Saudi backers to join forces with their former sworn rivals—and Rahm’s current bosses—at the PGA Tour.

While LIV pilfering a marquee Tour player might not violate the letter of the agreement between the two sides, which initially included an anti-poaching clause that was later tabled over antitrust concerns, it would most definitely upend the dynamics of their tentative truce.

Rahm hasn’t commented on the latest rumors, and his agent didn’t respond to a request for comment. But LIV adding the reigning Masters champion to its roster, for what would likely be an enormous sum of money, would represent a coup on numerous levels: Rahm is the world’s No. 3 golfer. He would be backtracking on his previous opposition to LIV’s format. And it would undermine the many forecasts of LIV’s demise after the Saudi Public Investment Fund stunningly cut a deal with the Tour. By signing Rahm, LIV would be doing more than running on fumes—it would be stepping on the accelerator.

“LIV Golf is moving full steam ahead and remains as committed as ever to its mission to enhance the game of golf for both players and fans through a franchise model that is quickly becoming the norm,” said LIV Golf spokesman Doug Mayer. “The 2024 season will feature world class golfers in elite team and individual competition at courses all over the globe—showcasing a new and fresh style of professional golf.”

At the same time, it’s equally possible that the smoke around Rahm is coming from the charged negotiations between PIF, the Tour and Europe’s DP World Tour—and not from Rahm’s actual intention to make a surprise pivot. In that way, the hubbub about Rahm reflects the ongoing talks that will shape the industry: there’s tension, uncertainty and nobody is quite sure how all of this will shake out.

Rahm, in the past, had not been subtle about his loyalties. In February of 2022, he bluntly stated: “I am officially declaring, let’s say, my fealty to the PGA Tour.”

Then again, other top players like Dustin Johnson have said something similar—only to join LIV anyway. Rahm also has a longstanding relationship with LIV team captain Phil Mickelson, whose brother Tim coached Rahm in college at Arizona State.

Still, later in 2022, Rahm expanded on his lack of interest in joining LIV. He dubbed its format, which features shotgun starts for three-day events without a cut, unappealing and “not a golf tournament.” He said he wanted to play against the best competition and touted the PGA Tour’s history. He even put a hypothetical price tag on the proposition, saying a $400 million offer wouldn’t change his life.

“I’ve never really played the game of golf for monetary reasons,” he said. “My heart is with the PGA Tour.”

Still, he’s precisely the type of player who would be a paradigm-changer for LIV. Rahm, 29 years old, would add to the growing number of stars the Saudi-backed league has gobbled up since the circuit first teed off in 2022. While many of the early defectors were older—like Rahm’s countryman Sergio Garcia—or out of form, Rahm would be only the second player ranked in the world’s top-five to join the upstart. Australian Cameron Smith was ranked No. 2 when he signed on last year.

It’s also possible to detect a public softening in Rahm’s stance since June’s deal. That month he said he was thankful to the PGA Tour “no matter what happens” and that he would have to “adapt to the situation” and “make some decisions.” Rahm continued to brush off speculation about a move to LIV, however. In July, he told a Spanish podcast that the rumors made him laugh and that a switch to LIV still didn’t appeal to him.

Another of Rahm’s recent moves ramped up the intrigue still further. Rahm pulled out of the new virtual golf league, TGL, started by Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy before its inaugural eason was postponed because the venue’s roof collapsed. The venture is aligned with the PGA Tour and was launched as a counterpunch to LIV and conceived as an additional way to line the pockets of big-name players who stuck with the establishment body.

Just like everything else in this frenzy, that was subject to multiple interpretations. To some, it was a sign of Rahm wavering. But the Arizona-based Rahm explained that the Florida-based upstart was simply too big of a time commitment.

“It’s quite a bit of extra hours of flight, quite a bit of extra time of being away from home,” Rahm said in November.

The timing of Rahm’s potential departure is curious beyond its proximity to the deadline for a definitive agreement between the PGA Tour and PIF. Because he won at Augusta National in April, he doesn’t have to worry about getting into the majors in the coming years even if his world ranking slips—and his green jacket means he’s set at the Masters for life.

It’s also possible that if Rahm were to actually join LIV, he would get something that hasn’t been afforded to anyone else over the last two years: a pathway to also playing on the PGA Tour. One of the negotiating points between the players, the Tour and PIF has been whether there’s a fair way to reintegrate those who quit the Tour to return in some form.

It’s seemingly a mystery even to one of the players’ lead negotiators whether Rahm plays with LIV next season, or if the question is even up for debate. Asked last week at the Bahamas tournament he hosts if he was surprised by speculation about players signing for LIV, Tiger Woods had a follow-up question.

Woods needed to clarify what was supposed to be surprising:

“The chatter, or people leaving?”