Shippers Wary of Red Sea Routes Despite Houthi Pledge to End Targeting
World’s top three container operators say they fear instability in Gaza and broader regional tensions mean continued danger
Big shipping companies say they won’t send vessels back to the Red Sea despite a pledge by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen not to attack them as long as a cease-fire in Gaza holds.
The world’s top three container shippers, MSC Mediterranean Shipping, A.P. Moller-Maersk and CMA CGM, in recent days said they would stick with other routes given what they called the unpredictable situation in Gaza and broader tensions in the Middle East.
“You don’t want to send a gas carrier that will go up in flames,” said Nils Haupt, spokesman for Germany’s biggest shipper, Hapag-Lloyd. “We don’t know when we will be returning.”
For more than a year, the Houthis have used missiles and drones to target commercial ships and naval vessels sent to protect them in the Red Sea, once one of the world’s busiest trade routes. Shippers have taken to sending vessels around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa instead.
The Houthis have attacked more than 100 vessels in the Red Sea since Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack on Israel sparked the war in Gaza.
In an email to shippers, the Houthis said they wouldn’t attack U.S. and British vessels while a cease-fire was in effect. The group also this month released 25 crew members of the cargo vessel Galaxy Leader, which they had seized in November 2023.
The rebels, however, said they would still target Israeli vessels. The Houthis in the past have attacked ships that they have claimed to be Israeli but which have had limited or no ties to Israel. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said the group could resume its attacks if the cease-fire agreement fails.
Global shippers’ hesitance reflects the danger posed by the Houthis despite efforts by the U.S., Israel and others to halt the group’s attacks.
The Houthis have indicated they will resume attacks if Israel continues military operations in the West Bank, where it says it is fighting militants. The Trump administration has redesignated the Houthis a terrorist organization.
Before the Hamas-Israel conflict, ships traveling through the Red Sea carried about 40% of the goods traded between Asia and Europe. The ships now diverting around South Africa add as much as two weeks of sailing time and higher freight rates that are passed on to the cargo owners.
There are more than 14 million containers normally moved annually through the route packed with everything from cars and food to home goods and electronics, valued at a total of more than a trillion dollars.
Some shipping experts estimate that rerouting and increased insurance charges could have cost more than $40 billion in the first year of the attacks.
Some operators signaled that they would resume Red Sea crossings once the second phase of the Gaza cease-fire is completed, said a maritime security executive.
That phase—which could still be weeks away—envisions a negotiation about a permanent end to the war and the release of any remaining hostages held by Hamas.
Shipping executives say they are now planning for a gradual return to the area in the second quarter. But they fear the return could end up in a stampede.
Rerouting “is complicated as we will have significant congestion issues at some European ports with ships coming in from both the Suez and from South Africa,” said an executive from a major European carrier.
DP World, an Emirati company that manages terminals in the Red Sea, says some previously diverted trips could resume in two weeks if the cease-fire holds.
That “would mean freight prices crashing down, 20, 25%,” said its deputy chief executive, Yuvraj Narayan. “And if there are no incidents, it is just a matter of time.”
President Trump has said he intends to restore extensive sanctions against Iran, the Houthis’ top sponsor. His decision, during his first presidency, to impose a full oil embargo on Tehran over its nuclear program triggered a string of attacks on oil tankers and facilities in the Persian Gulf region.
On Friday, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, a British naval body that liaises with merchant ships in the Middle East, said it had received reports of attempts by Iran’s military to order ships in the Persian Gulf to enter Iranian waters.