NYSE Owner Near Deal for $2 Billion Stake in Polymarket
Investment from Intercontinental Exchange could help the popular prediction market re-enter the U.S.
- Intercontinental Exchange is nearing a $2 billion investment in Polymarket, potentially valuing the prediction market at $8 billion to $10 billion.
- Polymarket, founded in 2020, attracted over $2 billion in trading volume for its 2024 presidential election markets.
- Polymarket, which has been banned for U.S. users since 2022, is working to re-establish a U.S. presence under the Trump administration.
New York Stock Exchange owner Intercontinental Exchange ICE -2.19%decrease; red down pointing triangle is in talks to invest $2 billion in Polymarket in a deal that could value the popular crypto-based prediction market at as much as $10 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
The details
The deal could come as soon as Tuesday and is expected to value the business at between $8 billion and $10 billion, they said, cautioning the details are still in flux.
The investment by one of the world’s leading exchange operators, which has a market value of more than $90 billion, could enhance the betting platform’s credibility and aid its efforts to re-establish a U.S. presence.
The context
Polymarket was founded in 2020 and allows users to bet on yes-or-no questions about everything from politics and sports to popular culture. It is privately held and counts billionaire Peter Thiel’s venture-capital firm, Founders Fund, as an investor.
The New York-based company drew attention last year for its betting markets on the presidential election. Its markets on the November 2024 vote attracted more than $2 billion in trading volume and drew widespread media coverage for correctly anticipating Donald Trump’s victory.
Polymarket is banned in several countries as an unlicensed offshore gambling platform. It has been officially off-limits to U.S. users since 2022 following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission during the Biden administration.
Days after Trump’s election last year, the Federal Bureau of Investigation seized the phone of Polymarket’s founder and Chief Executive Shayne Coplan.
But Polymarket’s relationship with the authorities has improved under the crypto-friendly Trump administration. Coplan in mid-July shared a Bloomberg article on social media that said Justice Department and CFTC probes into the company had ended, writing “Justice prevailed.”
Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, joined Polymarket’s advisory board in August, and his venture-capital firm 1789 Capital became an investor in the company.
Polymarket also acquired a small U.S.-licensed exchange and clearinghouse as part of its effort to re-enter the American market.
The big picture
Intercontinental Exchange has a record of jumping on emerging trends in the infrastructure of financial markets. The talks with Polymarket come as prediction markets are enjoying an upswell of mainstream interest.
Kalshi, a Polymarket competitor which was valued at $2 billion in a recent funding round, has enjoyed record trading volumes in recent weeks due to its contracts on the new National Football League season. Many of those football bets have been placed by users of Robinhood Markets, a Kalshi partner.
Robinhood and Kalshi’s push into sports has prompted an outcry from the gambling industry and state gaming regulators, who argue that prediction markets shouldn’t be offering sports bets, a business traditionally regulated by the states.
Intercontinental Exchange also has its own ties to the Trump administration. Its chairman and CEO Jeffrey Sprecher is married to Trump ally Kelly Loeffler, who serves as administrator of the Small Business Administration and briefly served as a U.S. senator from Georgia.