North Korea’s Uranium Enrichment Capacity Could Soon Expand by 75%, Analysis Says
Kim Jong Un recently inspected a new mammoth facility that dramatically boosts Pyongyang’s ability to make nuclear bombs
North Korea’s uranium-enrichment capacity could expand by 75% with a new Yongbyon facility, signaling leader Kim Jong Un’s intent to expand his arsenal.
The new facility at Yongbyon is estimated to house over 9,000 centrifuges, capable of producing 160 kilograms of highly enriched uranium annually.
North Korea has an estimated 60 nuclear warheads, up from 50 in 2025, and enough fissile material for 90 more.
SEOUL—North Korea’s uranium-enrichment capacity could soon expand by 75% once a new facility reaches full production, a clear signal that leader Kim Jong Un intends to expand his arsenal in defiance of international pressure.
The new facility in Yongbyon is estimated to house more than 9,000 centrifuges capable of producing roughly 160 kilograms of highly enriched uranium a year, according to Vertic, a London-based nonprofit that helps governments implement and verify international arms-control agreements. Previously, North Korea could produce roughly 215 kilograms of highly enriched uranium annually, according to Vertic.
“North Korea probably has all the material they’d need for a medium-sized nuclear arsenal already. And now it looks like they’re running up the numbers,” said Grant Christopher, one of the authors of the Vertic analysis, who co-leads the group’s verification and monitoring program. “We don’t see any evidence they’re going to stop any time soon.”
North Korea’s total stockpile of highly enriched uranium is estimated at 2,100 kilograms, or roughly one-tenth the size of such military reserves held by the U.K. or France, which have large and well-developed nuclear programs, said Christopher.
The new facility will be North Korea’s largest publicly known uranium enrichment site upon completion. The massive expansion shows Kim plans to greatly expand a nuclear program that has defied pressure from great powers such as the U.S. and China and has rattled its neighbors in Asia.
While for years China pressured North Korea to halt the development of nuclear weapons, it has recently stopped such demands, at least outwardly. During a visit earlier this week to Pyongyang, Chinese leader Xi Jinping didn’t mention denuclearization publicly at all.
Kim’s expansion of his nuclear arsenal also means he’s unlikely to pursue a deal with other powers, particularly the U.S., who have offered relief from sanctions in return for a reduction in North Korea’s nuclear program.
North Korea currently has an estimated 60 nuclear warheads, plus enough fissile material to make at least 90 more, according to a new estimate by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. That is an increase from roughly 50 warheads in 2025.
Kim has been flaunting the latest expansion of his nuclear weapons program. Last week he inspected the new uranium-enrichment site, which is located at the heart of the country’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex and is bigger than anything North Korea has shown publicly before.
In images carried by North Korean state media, the dictator strolled past rows of metal centrifuges and promised to carry out “larger plans” for the country’s nuclear program. He praised scientists for more than doubling the country’s “weapons-grade nuclear material production” capacity.
“This nuclear potential that we have now,” Kim said, “is inconceivable.”
Vertic calculated its estimates for the expanded uranium-enrichment capacity based on historical data of similar centrifuges, satellite imagery to determine the building’s dimensions, and other modeling.
The new facility was built in roughly 18 months, with satellite imagery showing construction work started in late 2024, said Jaewoo Shin, a co-author of the report and senior analyst at research group Open Nuclear Network.
“It is significant that this facility was placed in the middle of Yongbyon, and not somewhere deep in the mountains that the external community is not looking at,” Shin said. “It was there to be found.”
The Kim regime could also be expanding uranium enrichment in anticipation of needing new supplies for a nuclear sub North Korea has under development, said Hailey Wingo, a co-author of the Vertic analysis.
It was just seven years ago that during nuclear talks with President Trump in Hanoi, North Korea offered to dismantle Yongbyon in exchange for sanctions relief. But Trump wanted a broader deal that included the Kim regime’s undeclared nuclear sites. Talks collapsed.
Today, Yongbyon remains central to the regime’s expanding nuclear ambitions. In addition to enrichment, the site has seen an uptick of activity at a 5-megawatt reactor, a reprocessing unit and a relatively new light-water reactor, constituting a “very serious increase” in North Korea’s capabilities, Rafael Grossi, the United Nations’ atomic chief, said.
North Korea doesn’t disclose its uranium output, targets or timelines. It has previously acknowledged to U.S. officials that it enriches uranium at Yongbyon. Separately, North Korean state media in 2024 published photos of Kim touring a site at another location.