Global Economy Week Ahead: Central Bankers’ Outlooks, ECB Bond Buys, China Inflation
Central bankers take center stage this week as officials from the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve give closely watched speeches ahead of policy meetings later this month. Also, the European Central Bank caps off a two-day policy meeting on Thursday. Elsewhere, the U.K.’s new Treasury chief will make his first appearance before the House of Lords and China reports data on inflation.
MONDAY: Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda will make his last public appearance (10:30 p.m. EDT Sunday) before a closely watched policy meeting Sept. 20-21, where many economists expect the central bank to boost its campaign against deflation. Market participants are set to scrutinize every word for clues on whether he is inclined to deepen negative rates, expand quantitative easing or both.
TUESDAY: The president of the Federal Reserve Board of San Francisco, John Williams, will give his outlook for the U.S. economy in Reno, Nev. Mr. Williams is considered closely aligned with Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who in a speech last month left the door open for a rate increase as soon as the central bank’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting. A new batch of mixed economic data may have muddied that outlook.
THURSDAY: ECB President Mario Draghi will take center stage in Frankfurt after the central bank’s two-day policy meeting. The ECB isn’t expected to alter its policy mix but most investors expect an extension of an €80 billion-a-month bond-purchase program. Economists are divided over whether Mr. Draghi will announce such a move this week. Recent economic data appear to show the eurozone weathering Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union, but inflation remains far below the ECB’s near-2% target.
U.K. Treasury chief Philip Hammond is scheduled for a grilling on the economy from lawmakers in Britain’s House of Lords in his first parliamentary hearing since taking office in July. News on the economy since the Brexit vote has been mixed, and Mr. Hammond’s remarks will be followed closely for clues to the tax and spending plans he is due to set out before the end of the year.
FRIDAY: China will report inflation data as markets look at whether another deceleration in consumer CPI—which was 1.8% in July, down from 1.9% in June—will give the central bank more latitude to ease monetary policy as the economy slows.