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Does it feel like the stock market is going nowhere this year? Maybe that’s because it hasn’t.
We’re now well past the halfway point for 2015, and the index has yet to move more than 3.7%, on a closing basis, from where it was when the bell struck at 4 p.m. on Dec. 31, at 17823.07.
How unusual is that? Since 1998, or as far back as FactSet traces, the deepest into the calendar we’ve gone without moving 5% from the year’s opening level is May 17. That came in 2004, on a day when then-Dow components American International Group Inc.AIG -0.02% and General Motors declined, helping push the blue chips down 5.2% for the year.
Typically, the Dow industrials have notched a 5% gain or loss for the year by early February:
FactSet, WSJ Market Data Group
This year, it hasn’t even been close. On Jan. 30, with a bearish report on the U.S. economy dragging down stocks, the Dow dipped to 3.7% below break-even. But that low point was the year’s high in terms of drama. Stocks quickly bounced back, and they’ve hugged the flat line ever since.
As markets get ready to open on a steamy July day, the Dow is at 18100, less than 1.6% above where it started the year. Futures suggest it’s due to fall back a bit when the opening bell sounds.
Some investors say the story should get more exciting later in the year’s second half, citing things like high U.S. stock valuations, potential interest-rate increases and shakiness in other parts of the world. But they said that in January, too.
Five percent from 17823.07 is 18714 on the high side and 16932 on the low.