America Loves a $13 Lunch Bowl. Don’t Bet Against It.
Consumers may be struggling, but they still want fresh and fast offerings from restaurants like Cava and Chipotle
It has been a rough stretch for the makers of healthy—but fast—lunch bowls. After years of riding a wellness wave, they’ve suddenly found themselves squeezed between rising costs and a jittery consumer.
Younger consumers are looking for places to trim. For some, that means fewer carne asada burritos and harissa bowls. Chipotle, Cava and Sweetgreen SG -2.11%decrease; red down pointing triangle have all reported softer results in recent quarters. Their stocks show the damage: So far this year, Chipotle is down around 44%, Cava about 56% and Sweetgreen about 80%.
Companies point to the same culprits: student-loan payments, higher rents and a softer job market that are pushing younger consumers back into their kitchens. And when young people stop spending, fast casual feels it first. Roughly 75% of the customers for these chains are Gen Z or millennials, notes David Henkes of Technomic.
Near term, expect slightly shorter lines at your local Chipotle or Cava as the worker earning $70,000—or the newly laid-off Gen Zer—decides to make lunch at home. Let’s face it, though: Longer term, America’s growing appetite for fast-casual restaurant chains isn’t going anywhere.
The bowl occupies a rare pricing sweet spot: genuinely fresh food for only a couple of dollars more than fast food—and still far less than a sit-down entree once you add tax and tip. Yes, you can get a burger, fries and a soda for $10.79. But is that really a better deal than a $13 bowl of fresh greens, whole-grain rice, grilled chicken, tahini and pickled cabbage? More Americans seem to think not.
What started as the lunch of well-paid office workers is now something that anyone—a hairdresser, a college student, a delivery driver—might grab on a break. In 2008, fast casual made up just 6% of the restaurant industry. Today it’s about 15% of the restaurant market, according to Technomic.
Cava might be the best way to bet on the group. After its shares peaked around $150 late last year, the stock now trades around $50 a share—not far from its post-IPO level in the summer of 2023, even though it’s a far bigger company since then.
Consolidated revenue is on track to climb 21% to a projected $1.17 billion in 2025, according to analysts’ estimates on FactSet. The store base has grown from 309 at the end of 2023 to 415 as of the last reported quarter, with management opening restaurants as quickly as it can.
The problem—and the reason the stock has reset—is simple: Investors don’t like when guidance goes in the wrong direction.
Cava last quarter cut its same-store sales outlook and overall profitability for 2025. Chief Executive Brett Schulman blames the lower growth figure partly on “the honeymoon effect,” in which new restaurants open hot and then settle into more normal volumes.
That dynamic is real. But it doesn’t change the fact that growth is cooling from high levels, and investors have adjusted their expectations accordingly.
Dwelling on the lowered, near-term growth risks missing the larger story.
Consumers are excited about each Cava store opening, and the company is opening restaurants quickly. On average, units opened in 2025 are trending above $3 million in annual sales. This is higher than the chainwide $2.9 million average and far ahead of the year-one $2.3 million target, notes Sharon Zackfia of William Blair. Those locations earn back their roughly $1.4 million build costs in about two years on average, an unusually fast payback in the restaurant industry.
That strength is showing up both in legacy markets and brand-new ones. This is why analysts think Cava can grow well beyond 1,000 restaurants.
If the chain eventually matches the store density it already has in the Washington, D.C., area, Zackfia estimates it could support something closer to 2,000 locations nationwide. “Five years from now, nobody is going to be talking about the fourth quarter of 2025,” she said. “The business will be much bigger by then.”
Scaling to over 1,000 restaurants won’t be easy, and plenty could go wrong if it isn’t done right. It’s about execution: every bowl, every line, every shift.
Cava’s Schulman is blunt about the stakes: “No deal, no discount, no marketing campaign can get you out of bad operations. If people have bad experiences, they’re not going to come back.”
At the same time, Cava needs to continue broadening its appeal to the masses. That’s not easy in an economy where McDonald’s and Taco Bell are waging a price war. Cava can’t just roll out an $8.99 bowl without undermining its brand.
What it can do is keep raising prices at a slower pace than inflation. Since 2019, Cava has lifted prices less than 17%—about half the 34% industry average and well below the 27% rise in inflation, Schulman says.
The per-person average—which can include drinks and sides—is just over $14, but in many markets bowls run $10.65 to $12.95. Cava also offers things like tiered status—perks for people who visit more often—free pita chips and letting customers cash in points for avocado.
Cava may never be the cheapest lunch in town, but both its bowls and stock offer solid value.