Off to a flying start with Q1 adjusted EBIT coming in 15% ahead of consensus
Moncler reported sales of €201m up 38% y/y (30% constant, 8% FX) which were 11%
ahead of company-gathered consensus (€181m). Adjusted EBIT of €57.3m was 15%
ahead of consensus (€50m) with an adjusted EBIT margin of 28.5% up 120bps y/y
(consensus 27.4%). The EBIT beat was driven by the topline beat coupled with
operating leverage on the G&A line (-200bps y/y), while both selling expenses and A&P
as a percentage of sales developed in line with our expectations. Net income of €39.6m
climbed by 69% y/y (€16.1m higher y/y in EUR-terms) and was 32% ahead of
consensus (€30m), helped by net financials which included an FX gain of €5.3m.
Retail SSSG of 25% led by better availability of Fall/Winter product in Jan/Feb
The majority of the highly impressive 25% Retail same store sales growth (UBSe 10%)
was achieved in January/February from the end of the Fall/Winter collection and
facilitated by better availability of stock this year (last year key lines sold out early)
leading to a strong price/mix benefit (volumes were also up well). The new
Spring/Summer collection has been off to a very good start in all regions, albeit it at a
more 'normalised' level, with the Long Season jacket supported by a bigger
contribution this year from Knitwear and Mens Rainswear. The brand was strong across
all regions, led by Asia +48% constant with Japan/China/Hong Kong all enjoying good
traffic in stores, Americas +61% constant, EMEA +19%, and even Italy posting +7%,
driven by both locals and tourists.
We have raised our FY15 earnings estimates by 4%
We build the majority of the Q1 beat into our full year forecast though assume some
degree of reinvestment into G&A as the business ensures the infrastructure keeps pace
with the growth. We now forecast 9.5% retail SSSG (implies 6% SSSG for Q2-Q4) and
update for the 25 secured locations for FY15 (UBSe previously at 24).
Valuation: Reiterate Buy; Raise PT to €19.5 (from €18.5)
Our price target is based on ~28x P/E which reflects ~35% premium to the soft luxury
peer group (in step with the superior earnings growth outlook).