European Beer – Nielsen data
Off-trade sales trend to mid-August
(PDF ATTACHED)
* Europe beer volume decline in 4 weeks to August 16
Nielsen data for GB off-trade beer market shows volume +1.9% y/y for the 4 weeks to August 16, off an easy -1.3% comp. Price/mix of +0.3% is above the 12 week trend of -2.1%. Beer volume in France for the 4 weeks to August 10 declined -5.9% y/y, with -0.8% price/mix. Italy beer volume declined -13.2% y/y, with positive +2.6% price/mix. Nielsen captures 85% of the off-trade channel.
* Heineken gained share in GB but lost in France and Italy
In GB, Heineken volume grew +4.9% in the period y/y, and +1.9% price/mix. ABI
volume grew +0.7% y/y while Carlsberg's volume decreased -6.4% y/y. In France, ABI
volume declined -1.2% y/y, whereas Carlsberg fell -7.5%, a touch above Heineken
(-8.2% y/y). In Italy, Carlsberg lost share with volume -6.1% and price/mix -0.8%.
SABMiller volume declined -6.7% y/y, and price/mix of -0.3%. Heineken lost share with
volume -10.5% despite positive price/mix of +1.3%.
* We prefer ABInBev (Buy, €94 pt) among brewers
Fundamentally, we remain cautious on the Western Europe beer market considering a
still challenged consumer environment, high beer PCC, ageing demographics, high level
of competition, risk of VAT/excise duty increases and private label threat. We prefer
ABInBev (Buy, €94 pt)