Apple: On a clear day you can see $200, but $175 is a more likely share price during next 2-3 years
UBS notes, with AAPL stock rising 15% since earnings, investors are wondering how much upside is left. Firm looks at stock price drivers during three phases: the current Supercycle phase and the upcoming Sustainable Growth and Innovation phases. They also provide three scenarios—use their interactive model to input your own assumptions. Firm's most likely scenario is a $175 stock price in 2-3 years at a P/E of 15x. A $200 stock price likely requires innovation increasing confidence in sustainable growth combined with accelerated share repurchases to increase the multiple to 17x. On the other hand, in a bearish scenario iPhone maturation, lack of new products, and margin pressure could lower the P/E to 12x for a $125 stock price; Buy, $151 tgt.