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OpenAI raised $6.6 billion, the largest venture capital fundraise in history—only to have Databricks beat that record with its $10 billion haul in December. Then there were the acqui-hires, topped by Google paying $2.7 billion for the talent and technology behind Character AI.

But the year wasn’t just up and to the right. Several well-known startups shut down, including fintech Synapse, which filed for bankruptcy and left customers searching for their money, and Forward Health, a direct-to-consumer healthcare company that raised more than $400 million. A bevy of e-commerce and creator economy startups also shuttered operations, as did early-stage venture capital firm Countdown Capital. And some prominent investors left firms such as Sequoia Capital, Founders Fund, Index Ventures and Lux Capital.

If 2024 was about separating winners and losers, what will 2025 bring?

Other than chasing fundraising deals for artificial intelligence companies, I’ve been busy the past few months running after the senior partners leaving VC firms.

In December, Bilal Zuberi, a general partner at Lux Capital known for his investments in robotics and deep tech companies, left to plot his own hundred million–dollar fund. Michelle Volz, formerly an investor on Andreessen Horowitz’s American Dynamism team, is raising a fund to back defense and supply chain companies. Earlier this year, a trio of top investors from Index, Andreessen Horowitz and Bessemer Venture Partners raised $350 million for their debut fund.

I haven’t seen so many new funds launched since 2021. It has me wondering if there are enough limited partners to back everyone’s dreams. Next year, I’ll closely track how successful these individuals are in raising their own funds.

As for firms that are already investing but struggling to generate returns, there will be opportunities for consolidation.

I predict VC mergers every year, but we’re finally seeing evidence that they are arriving. In June, General Catalyst acquired Indian firm Venture Highway. And earlier this month, 360 Venture Collective bought a significant management stake in early-stage firm Backstage Capital. Next year will bring more acquisitions as VC firms are stuck in a waiting game for returns. Sure, many firms are eager for home runs, ideally in the form of initial public offerings, but for a majority of smaller shops, there may be pressure to sell off their stakes and provide some immediate liquidity for their limited partners.

My look into the rise of Daniel Gross, a prolific investor and now a co-founder of Safe Superintelligence, an AI research lab, along with Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s former chief scientist, highlighted an idea proliferating across Silicon Valley: Investors are seeking out founders with research backgrounds who grasp the complexities of AI—and can identify potential breakthroughs. VC firms are cozying up to research labs to find these founders.

In 2025, I expect some growing pains. Research-oriented founders will need to figure out how to go from pitch to revenue faster; that may challenge founders accustomed to academia’s more leisurely pace. We may see some new founder-CEOs step down, or be joined by a co-CEO who is more sales and marketing minded.

Databricks and Perplexity co-founder Andy Konwinski, a computer scientist who recently co-founded Laude Ventures, said some of these researcher-founders may need help from investors. “How do we help them turn their discovery into a billion-dollar company?” he told me recently.

When I asked if that meant his firm may invest in labs or AI companies that aren't commercially focused, he smiled and emphasized that Laude Ventures is obsessed with “actual early product traction” and a road map to revenue.

Sovereign capital will face new challenges

Sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East made appearances on several capitalization tables this year, continuing a trend of investing directly in startups as well as in VC firms. MGX, a partnership between Abu Dhabi wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co. and tech conglomerate G42, launched a $100 billion fund to back AI companies. MGX then poured hundreds of millions of dollars into both OpenAI and Databricks.

But the incoming administration of Donald Trump may create hurdles by imposing more scrutiny on foreign capital moving into U.S. companies. The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. has been reviewing these deals for years. During Trump’s first term, CFIUS tightened its reviews of foreign investments, particularly those coming from China.

Even so, I expect we’ll see more sovereign wealth funds open offices in the U.S. and try to cozy up to lawmakers to create better relationships and work on U.S. projects. As I reported last month, G42 is moving toward opening a U.S. office after distancing itself from China in response to geopolitical pressure from the U.S.

Special purpose vehicles are now a common way for VCs to invest in startups, as we wrote time and time again this year.

I expect the mania to continue. But retail investors, founders and some firms will grow wary of double-layer SPVs or misleading marketing. I can’t get two sentences out of my head from my last feature on this topic: “An OpenAI spokesperson said the company restricts the ability of investors to indirectly transfer their shares to other investors. If they do so without OpenAI’s approval, the company can cancel their equity stakes and keep the capital.” Talk about real consequences.