Polymarket Trader Made 1,242% Return on Venezuela Bet
An account on prediction market Polymarket drew attention on social media for correctly building up a position betting Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro would be out, making a return of 1,242% in just four days.
The account, created in December 2025, spent a total of $32,537 over the past four days betting that Maduro would be out by Jan. 31. As President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. had captured Maduro early Saturday morning, the account made profits of $404,222, or a 1,242% return. It’s unclear who’s behind the account, or if the person has other accounts or positions. The account is also currently betting that the U.S. will invade Venezuela and Trump will invoke War Powers against Venezuela by the end of this month.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets in the U.S., generally forbids contracts related to events such as war, terrorism and assassination, which are contrary to the public interest. Polymarket’s global platform, where the account made its bets, is not open to U.S. users and therefore not subject to U.S. regulations. Polymarket has launched a separate platform for U.S. users.
Kalshi also offers bets on when Maduro would be leaving office, though there’s currently no bet on potential U.S. invasion of Venezuela.