Maybe Google Does Win It All
A horrifying thought has lately been immovable from my mind: Am I gonna have to dump ChatGPT for Gemini?
Well, Gemini 3 is out, and it’s pretty darn slick: Google has improved the chatbot’s ability to code, search and create images, among other features. AI researcher Ethan Mollick is a fan, and so is Stratechery’s Ben Thompson. Our Stephanie Palazzolo deemed it “well worth the wait and the hype.”
What a difference a year or so makes. As recently as spring 2024, Gemini looked like a disaster, attracting widespread jeers for an aesthetic sensibility that wouldn’t have been out of place in a Wesleyan art class. Around that same time, OpenAI seemed to take great pleasure in tweaking Google’s tail, releasing competing products at almost exactly the same moment, many of which got plenty of applause. So people like me threw our lot in with OpenAI and befriended Chat, a buddy I’ve taught to understand my tastes as much as possible—from my morning coffee ritual (a Moka, though sadly not this Moka) to my preferred travel (like this delightful Slovenian hiking-biking expedition).
Having already invested some time and effort in personalizing the chatbot, I’m reluctant to use another, especially if everything I’ve told it becomes a part of a gee-whiz AI device. This speaks to a truism in tech that’s familiar to anyone who’s worked on, say, consumer apps: It’s hard to simply get people to download an app and build the habits that lead to steady use, and convincing someone to switch to a different app is tough, too. Just consider how Twitter has survived more assassination attempts than a third-world dictator.
For now, ChatGPT has many more users than Gemini: 800 million weekly users, while Gemini reports just 650 million monthly users, a wide gulf that reflects OpenAI’s first-mover advantage. OpenAI will hang on to many of them—many of us—simply by that law of inertia I just mentioned.
But there’s no getting around it: OpenAI seems to have fallen behind. We didn’t see it gleefully yanking on Google’s rear this past week, and the recent decision to reach for engagement bait like adult content suggests it has concerns about continued growth—at least in the short term. And while Fidji Simo, the company’s CEO of apps, appears eager to publicly insist the startup’s world domination can continue apace, CEO Sam Altman acknowledged behind closed doors last month that Google’s recent resurgence in AI would mean “rough” vibes for the time being, according to a scoop from our Stephanie and Erin Woo.
Plus, it’s not like OpenAI has been picking up cool points, which might mitigate an innovation slowdown.
Take Sora, for example—the startup’s last big thing. While the video app’s debut made for an undeniable moment, it has also made OpenAI into the de facto enemy of Hollywood and the creative class. Minus 100 cool points!
Relatedly, go talk to someone outside the coastal bubbles—another horrifying thought, I know—and I expect you’ll find that ChatGPT is increasingly the stand-in for AI as an evil, labor-market menace in people’s minds. Simply, ChatGPT is the most resonant brand in AI—and in this case, I guess that counts as a first-mover disadvantage. I used to think Gemini’s lack of powerful branding would really hurt it, but if sentiment around AI does really shift at some point, Google could be in a much better position. Maybe the name “Gemini” dissolves—wouldn’t be much of a loss brandingwise, would it?—and all that high-quality underlying technology gets quietly folded into Chrome and Google Search.
That scenario reminds me of that scene from “Mad Men”—coming to HBOMax in 4K in two weeks!—when Don Draper’s Sterling Cooper colleagues try to talk him into joining them in a pitch for American Airlines, which has just suffered a crash.
“We already have an airline,” Don says.
“We don’t have American,” says his boss, Roger Sterling. “Well, that’s right,” Don replies. “We have the one whose planes didn’t just fall out of the sky.”
Or, in the context of Google’s public image, the company would have the technology that didn’t just vaporize millions of jobs. Just boring ol’ Google Search.