Euro Stoxx 50 Index - bearish below 3,655-3,783, risks a move lower towards 3,436
* The Index is trying to stabilize above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire bull cycle which started on October2014 at 2,789. The 23.6% retracement stands at 3,589.
* A sustain move below 3,589 would argue for a deeper retracement towards the 38.2% retracement which stands at 3,436.
* In order to negate the immediate downside threat the index will have to take out the April 27th high at 3,783
* The Index is also trading below the 55dma which stands at 3,655 and seems to be a good indicator in historical terms
* On the weekly chart (not attached below) a weekly bearish continuation candle was posted last week increasing the like hood of a move lower
Strategy: risk/reward (less than 1:2) doesn't justify taking a position. Step aside for now.
Daily chart
[cid:image001.png@01D08720.187246B0]
Dax30 Index - Bearish below 11,730 targeting 10,830-10,850
* The Index is trading in a corrective path. In
* Elliot wave theory, it still remains unclear if this corrective path is a corrective wave 4 or a correction from the entire bull cycle which began at the 8,354 low in Oct2014.
* On a short term scale, there is a bearish H&S pattern which targets a move to 10,830. The Neckline of this pattern stands at 11,730 and while below this level on a daily closing basis the pattern and target remain valid.
* Looking at the entire bull cycle which started in October 2014 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement stands at 10,850. This level is pretty close to the bearish H&S target
* On the weekly chart (not attached below) a weekly bearish continuation candle was posted last week increasing the like hood of a move lower
Strategy: risk/reward (less than 1:2) doesn't justify taking a position. Step aside for now.
Daily chart
[cid:image002.png@01D0871F.9705CCA0]
Cac40 Index - Clearly Bullish above 4,930 But weekly bearish reversal last week threatens this path
* The Index is the strongest index for now as unlike others it maintains the path of higher highs and higher lows established on the chart since Oct2014
* The recent higher low is 4,930 which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level and while above it trend remains clearly to the upside
* The Index (unlike others) is still supported by its 55dma which stands at 5,083 and if we get a move below this level (daily closing basis) downside pressure should accelerate
* On a weekly scale, the Index posted a bearish outside week against the highs. A move below last week low at 4,987 should accelerate downside pressure and argue for a minimum test of 4,930
Strategy: Step aside for now.
Daily chart
[cid:image003.png@01D08722.0CB5E730]
Russell 2000 Index - Bearish Wedge breakdown targets the 200dma
* The Index broke down from a bearish Wedge pattern - the breakdown level is 1,245-1,250 and the target of this pattern is near the 200dma which stands at 1,180
* On a weekly scale, the index posted a bearish weekly reversal last week. This bearish signal increase the odds we move lower. In order to confirm this bearish reversal will need to see a move below last week low whish stands at 1,216
Strategy: Short from 1,242, target 1,185 with a stop at 1,263.
Daily chart
[cid:image004.png@01D08723.095BF150]
S&P 500 Index - Still in a range putting upside pressure on the 2,119-2,125 resistance area. Support at 2,072
* The Index continues to hold the path of higher highs and higher lows and continues to put upside pressure on the 2,119-2,125 resistance level
* One can see that the index continues to hold the path of higher highs and higher lows with the recent higher low standing at 2,072.
* Under the assumption that in an uptrend buyers come in at a higher level on every dip one should keep in mind that while above 2,072 (recent higher low) the trend remains clearly to the upside.
* That being said, lack of momentum, low volume, divergence on all time frames and large gap between moving averages and the price (especially on the weekly chart) make the risk/reward in chasing this uptrend pretty risky.
* INTERESTING, On the monthly scale if one measures the time it took for the index to make a high at 2000 and then at 2007 and then measures the time scale since the 2007 high was established THEY ARE SIMILAR. This from a cycle perspective when added up to the weakening technical picture increases the odds we are in process of making some kind of top.
Daily chart
[cid:image005.png@01D08724.4619C210]
Monthly chart
[cid:image007.jpg@01D08724.974C0B20]
2015 TECHNICAL TRADE IDEAS
[cid:image006.png@01D08725.4E985450]
* The Index is trying to stabilize above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire bull cycle which started on October2014 at 2,789. The 23.6% retracement stands at 3,589.
* A sustain move below 3,589 would argue for a deeper retracement towards the 38.2% retracement which stands at 3,436.
* In order to negate the immediate downside threat the index will have to take out the April 27th high at 3,783
* The Index is also trading below the 55dma which stands at 3,655 and seems to be a good indicator in historical terms
* On the weekly chart (not attached below) a weekly bearish continuation candle was posted last week increasing the like hood of a move lower
Strategy: risk/reward (less than 1:2) doesn't justify taking a position. Step aside for now.
Daily chart
[cid:image001.png@01D08720.187246B0]
Dax30 Index - Bearish below 11,730 targeting 10,830-10,850
* The Index is trading in a corrective path. In
* Elliot wave theory, it still remains unclear if this corrective path is a corrective wave 4 or a correction from the entire bull cycle which began at the 8,354 low in Oct2014.
* On a short term scale, there is a bearish H&S pattern which targets a move to 10,830. The Neckline of this pattern stands at 11,730 and while below this level on a daily closing basis the pattern and target remain valid.
* Looking at the entire bull cycle which started in October 2014 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement stands at 10,850. This level is pretty close to the bearish H&S target
* On the weekly chart (not attached below) a weekly bearish continuation candle was posted last week increasing the like hood of a move lower
Strategy: risk/reward (less than 1:2) doesn't justify taking a position. Step aside for now.
Daily chart
[cid:image002.png@01D0871F.9705CCA0]
Cac40 Index - Clearly Bullish above 4,930 But weekly bearish reversal last week threatens this path
* The Index is the strongest index for now as unlike others it maintains the path of higher highs and higher lows established on the chart since Oct2014
* The recent higher low is 4,930 which is also the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level and while above it trend remains clearly to the upside
* The Index (unlike others) is still supported by its 55dma which stands at 5,083 and if we get a move below this level (daily closing basis) downside pressure should accelerate
* On a weekly scale, the Index posted a bearish outside week against the highs. A move below last week low at 4,987 should accelerate downside pressure and argue for a minimum test of 4,930
Strategy: Step aside for now.
Daily chart
[cid:image003.png@01D08722.0CB5E730]
Russell 2000 Index - Bearish Wedge breakdown targets the 200dma
* The Index broke down from a bearish Wedge pattern - the breakdown level is 1,245-1,250 and the target of this pattern is near the 200dma which stands at 1,180
* On a weekly scale, the index posted a bearish weekly reversal last week. This bearish signal increase the odds we move lower. In order to confirm this bearish reversal will need to see a move below last week low whish stands at 1,216
Strategy: Short from 1,242, target 1,185 with a stop at 1,263.
Daily chart
[cid:image004.png@01D08723.095BF150]
S&P 500 Index - Still in a range putting upside pressure on the 2,119-2,125 resistance area. Support at 2,072
* The Index continues to hold the path of higher highs and higher lows and continues to put upside pressure on the 2,119-2,125 resistance level
* One can see that the index continues to hold the path of higher highs and higher lows with the recent higher low standing at 2,072.
* Under the assumption that in an uptrend buyers come in at a higher level on every dip one should keep in mind that while above 2,072 (recent higher low) the trend remains clearly to the upside.
* That being said, lack of momentum, low volume, divergence on all time frames and large gap between moving averages and the price (especially on the weekly chart) make the risk/reward in chasing this uptrend pretty risky.
* INTERESTING, On the monthly scale if one measures the time it took for the index to make a high at 2000 and then at 2007 and then measures the time scale since the 2007 high was established THEY ARE SIMILAR. This from a cycle perspective when added up to the weakening technical picture increases the odds we are in process of making some kind of top.
Daily chart
[cid:image005.png@01D08724.4619C210]
Monthly chart
[cid:image007.jpg@01D08724.974C0B20]
2015 TECHNICAL TRADE IDEAS
[cid:image006.png@01D08725.4E985450]
