SpaceX IPO — Initiation of Coverage | Graham Advisors | 5 April 2026
We publish today our initiation note on SpaceX, following the confidential SEC filing on 1 April 2026 (target valuation $1.75T).
VERDICT: an extraordinary company at an immoderate valuation.
Key points:
— Mature business (Starlink + Launch) stands alone at $350-450B — 20-26% of IPO valuation
— 74-80% of valuation = pure option value on 10-20yr horizon projects (orbital data centres, Mars, mining)
— 113x 2025 revenue; $200-500B additional capex requirement post-IPO is structurally unfunded
— Fair institutional entry: $900B-$1.1T (35-45% post-listing correction)
— Dual-class structure confirmed → minority shareholders structurally voiceless
— Hyperscaler capex analogy holds — but at an order of magnitude with no precedent
Full note (FR/EN) attached. Available on request.
Graham Advisors SARL | Freienbach, Switzerland
This communication does not constitute investment advice.