>>>Smith & Nephew to be acquired? Stryker most likely buyer



From: LCHEKROUN@makor-cm.com At: Feb 3 2015 15:25:30
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LLP)
Subject: Fwd:>>>Smith & Nephew to be acquired? Stryker most likely buyer

Smith & Nephew to be acquired? Stryker most likely buyer


In this pre-event note we try to answer the following:

 

1. Why would Stryker acquire and indeed pay a hefty premium for Smith& Nephew? and

2. What that premium would look like?

 

Around Christmas (late December), rumours linked Stryker to Smith&Nephew.

Such rumours have been ongoing for years BUT we show in our note how market shares have changed and Stryker is in need of acquisitions. Smith&Nephew is a very good fit.

January is the busiest month for Smith Nephew executives as they devote time to their FY report (Due Feb 5th).

We suggest that Q1 and in particular February is a key month for a formal approach if one is to be made because excecutive time is available for due dilligence meetings and because the bidder would want to work with the recent set of audited accounts (February) given the size of the acquistion.

We  conduct several valuation analyses including comparable company analysis, precedent transaction analysis and DCF modelling. We also analyse prior synergies when mergers occur in the sector

We conservatively conclude thatStryker may need to offer in excess of 1350p per Smith&Nephew share for the offer to be considered full value. 

And if a formal bid comesforth other suitors may also have a look

 

SN/ LN: Current share price:  1190p

Potential offer price: 1350p

 

Spread

Gross potential                 160p

% upside potential          13.5%

 

PDF attached